If the tournament field had been set on Monday based solely on NET ranking (which, of course, it isn't) this is how it would shake out, by conference. The last four in with their W-L record and NET rank are shown in parentheses next to their conference.

B1G 12 teams (Indiana 15-5, 44)
PAC 6 (Washington 12-9, 45)
SEC 6
BE.. 5
XII 5 (Oklahoma 13-6, 46)
A10 3 (Rhode Island 15-5 , 47)
ACC 3
WCC 3
AAC 2
1 bid 23 teams (2 in top 47)

Since all but two B1G teams are currently above the cut line, and since tournament play is a zero sum game, I expect a couple of those teams to fade in the stretch. And, at this point, with fewer opportunities left for teams in one bid leagues to get quad one or two wins, there probably won't be many teams from multi-bid leagues bumped out of the tourney.

(01-29-2020 10:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the tournament field had been set on Monday based solely on NET ranking (which, of course, it isn't) this is how it would shake out, by conference. The last four in with their W-L record and NET rank are shown in parentheses next to their conference.

B1G 12 teams (Indiana 15-5, 44)
PAC 6 (Washington 12-9, 45)
SEC 6
BE.. 5
XII 5 (Oklahoma 13-6, 46)
A10 3 (Rhode Island 15-5 , 47)
ACC 3
WCC 3
AAC 2
1 bid 23 teams (2 in top 47)

Since all but two B1G teams are currently above the cut line, and since tournament play is a zero sum game, I expect a couple of those teams to fade in the stretch. And, at this point, with fewer opportunities left for teams in one bid leagues to get quad one or two wins, there probably won't be many teams from multi-bid leagues bumped out of the tourney.

It's crazy how top heavy it is in the ACC this year. Duke, Louisville and FSU all look like legitimate Final Four contenders, yet the conference might not get a bid beyond those 3 if the season ended today. The Big Ten is the opposite: there isn't any real elite standard-bearer (outside of the fact that Michigan State always seems to know when to peak in March), but the entire league except for Northwestern and Nebraska is in the hunt for at-large bids.

Practically speaking, there will likely be psychological barrier in play here where the tournament committee is going to have a tough time putting in 12 (or even 10) teams from a single league even if the analytics might say otherwise.

12 teams from 1 conference is crazy. At this point I'm guessing if it came down to it Indiana would be subbed out for the next best P5 team in a different conference.

(01-29-2020 10:32 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(01-29-2020 10:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the tournament field had been set on Monday based solely on NET ranking (which, of course, it isn't) this is how it would shake out, by conference. The last four in with their W-L record and NET rank are shown in parentheses next to their conference.

B1G 12 teams (Indiana 15-5, 44)
PAC 6 (Washington 12-9, 45)
SEC 6
BE.. 5
XII 5 (Oklahoma 13-6, 46)
A10 3 (Rhode Island 15-5 , 47)
ACC 3
WCC 3
AAC 2
1 bid 23 teams (2 in top 47)

Since all but two B1G teams are currently above the cut line, and since tournament play is a zero sum game, I expect a couple of those teams to fade in the stretch. And, at this point, with fewer opportunities left for teams in one bid leagues to get quad one or two wins, there probably won't be many teams from multi-bid leagues bumped out of the tourney.

It's crazy how top heavy it is in the ACC this year. Duke, Louisville and FSU all look like legitimate Final Four contenders, yet the conference might not get a bid beyond those 3 if the season ended today. The Big Ten is the opposite: there isn't any real elite standard-bearer (outside of the fact that Michigan State always seems to know when to peak in March), but the entire league except for Northwestern and Nebraska is in the hunt for at-large bids.

Practically speaking, there will likely be psychological barrier in play here where the tournament committee is going to have a tough time putting in 12 (or even 10) teams from a single league even if the analytics might say otherwise.

the committee didn't with the Big East back in the day...

And the thing is the other good conferences are making it easy on the committee.
ACC you mentioned....
Big East had a great OOC. But right now 1/2 way thru conference play- the league has 6 teams better than 2 wins- with 1 of those being Providence. Very possible if not likely now that the league only gets 5 teams in the tourney.

(01-29-2020 10:32 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(01-29-2020 10:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the tournament field had been set on Monday based solely on NET ranking (which, of course, it isn't) this is how it would shake out, by conference. The last four in with their W-L record and NET rank are shown in parentheses next to their conference.

B1G 12 teams (Indiana 15-5, 44)
PAC 6 (Washington 12-9, 45)
SEC 6
BE.. 5
XII 5 (Oklahoma 13-6, 46)
A10 3 (Rhode Island 15-5 , 47)
ACC 3
WCC 3
AAC 2
1 bid 23 teams (2 in top 47)

Since all but two B1G teams are currently above the cut line, and since tournament play is a zero sum game, I expect a couple of those teams to fade in the stretch. And, at this point, with fewer opportunities left for teams in one bid leagues to get quad one or two wins, there probably won't be many teams from multi-bid leagues bumped out of the tourney.

It's crazy how top heavy it is in the ACC this year. Duke, Louisville and FSU all look like legitimate Final Four contenders, yet the conference might not get a bid beyond those 3 if the season ended today. The Big Ten is the opposite: there isn't any real elite standard-bearer (outside of the fact that Michigan State always seems to know when to peak in March), but the entire league except for Northwestern and Nebraska is in the hunt for at-large bids.

Practically speaking, there will likely be psychological barrier in play here where the tournament committee is going to have a tough time putting in 12 (or even 10) teams from a single league even if the analytics might say otherwise.

The Big East has both. They have 3 final four contenders (Butler, Villanova, and Seton Hall), and every team in the conference is a legitimate threat to win the conference tournament.

The worst team in the Big East is either Depaul or St. John's or Providence.

Depaul was 12-1 nonconference with wins over likely tourney teams @Minnesota, @Iowa, and Texas Tech. In-conference, they've beaten Butler.

St. John's was 12-2 nonconference with wins over Arizona (neutral court) and West Virginia.

Providence had a rough nonconference run at 7-6. But now they're 4-4 in conference play.

I think the Committee will wind up trimming the B1G down to 9 bids and add one each to the ACC and SEC, and one other will go for an upset somewhere in the one bid conference territory.

The Pac-12 really is better than last year and deserves 6 bids. Last year was abnormally bad, this year looks more normal.

I would rather have Indiana and no other Big Ten teams in the dance as opposed to 11 Big Ten teams and no IU in the tourney.

Does that make Bill Dazzle a selfish old cuss?

I’m not surprised by the B1G numbers. They were a force in the non-conference, won some good games, and now they’re unloading on each other.

NET had a similar situation last year with sub-.500 B1G teams in that reachable at-large territory. It’s a metric that really considers SOS, and if you win a game or two against some really great teams, you position well for consideration.

It doesn’t bother me if schools get good wins. I think you’re going to be hard-pressed to exclude B1G teams on their resumes. However, I’m suspicious of the metric when you can suck and have such bad losses as Northwestern has, and still be a top-150 team. If you travel into Evanston, that game is close to quad 2. That’s...bull.

The leagues that stand to benefit most if some of those top 47 teams falter are the AAC and ACC with three teams each in the next 13 of the top 60. And, there's no rule that says the committee has to go strictly by the NET ranking in making their selections.

Obviously, the B1G has the most to lose, and some of their 12 teams could even fail to have a winning record at the end of league play. Michigan already has 8 losses, while Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota 9 each before this week's games. If they were to finish with 14 or more losses, it will be hard for the committee to vote them in, no matter what the NET says.

(01-29-2020 10:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the tournament field had been set on Monday based solely on NET ranking (which, of course, it isn't) this is how it would shake out, by conference. The last four in with their W-L record and NET rank are shown in parentheses next to their conference.

B1G 12 teams (Indiana 15-5, 44)

Funny that few of the conference RPI or Power ratings have the B1G as the #1 conference. Most have the Big 12 or the Big East at #1.

(01-29-2020 08:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-29-2020 10:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the tournament field had been set on Monday based solely on NET ranking (which, of course, it isn't) this is how it would shake out, by conference. The last four in with their W-L record and NET rank are shown in parentheses next to their conference.

B1G 12 teams (Indiana 15-5, 44)

Funny that few of the conference RPI or Power ratings have the B1G as the #1 conference. Most have the Big 12 or the Big East at #1.

yeah but conferences don't get teams in the tourney. Teams get teams into the tourney. Big East could easily have gotten 7 teams in this year- but with right now 2 teams with 6 conference losses and 2 others with 7 conference losses- those 4 are clearly behind the 8 ball. Then add to that a team that is 4-4 is Providence and their OOC was awful, and you have a recipe for 5 teams only.

Conference record has been overlooked before. If a good win or two is there in a good conference, does that overshadow mediocre or bad conference performance?

I would think the committee would be in a world of hurt if a DePaul or St. John’s continue their track toward the bottom of the Big East but were to pick up two big wins against a Villanova, Seton Hall, or Butler. Their current performance has them in the 60’s and 70’s now. Those wins would probably get them right to that dividing line, and you’d have to take the body of work into account.

What I don’t care for NET is that it elevates everyone in a good conference. So much so that it makes a “bad loss” relative. And the B1G and Big East are good examples of this for different reasons. Really doesn’t hurt if you lose to DePaul metrically. However, you’re not crushed if you lose to Northwestern or Nebraska either. Yet, if Nebraska and Northwestern didn’t have the Big Ten schedule propping them up?

(01-30-2020 06:19 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Conference record has been overlooked before. If a good win or two is there in a good conference, does that overshadow mediocre or bad conference performance?

I would think the committee would be in a world of hurt if a DePaul or St. John’s continue their track toward the bottom of the Big East but were to pick up two big wins against a Villanova, Seton Hall, or Butler. Their current performance has them in the 60’s and 70’s now. Those wins would probably get them right to that dividing line, and you’d have to take the body of work into account.

What I don’t care for NET is that it elevates everyone in a good conference. So much so that it makes a “bad loss” relative. And the B1G and Big East are good examples of this for different reasons. Really doesn’t hurt if you lose to DePaul metrically. However, you’re not crushed if you lose to Northwestern or Nebraska either. Yet, if Nebraska and Northwestern didn’t have the Big Ten schedule propping them up?

The worst conference records ever to make the NCAA tourney 4 games under .500.

The problem for DePaul/St Johns is just going to be their overall record. They're going to finish in the 17-14 or 16-15 range....

Think folks have to remember- Georgia in 2000 in the last 25 years is the ONLY team to finish the season with an overall record less than 4 games over .500 and making the tourney. And Georgia had what many consider the toughest schedule of all time that season.

DePaul is not going to the Dance barring a miracle — a stunning development that would rival the likes of this poster landing a date with the lovely and vivacious Cate Blanchett.

As I long-time Blue Demon fan, I accept the tourney-free DU and the Dazzle-free C-Blan.

I think the metric is too new to consider outcomes. However, one is going to have to reconcile this conference performance component. If NET is so valuable, will it trump that conference record piece if the NET is high and the quality wins are there?

And it does ask a bigger question: when you have good wins in and out of the conference, shouldn't that take precedence?

We look at the projected records of some of the Big East basement teams and discount them. But, again, if you're Saint John's, and you finish 18-13 by season's end, but your win tally includes West Virginia, Arizona, and hypothetically Seton Hall and Villanova...how do you deal with it?

IMO, RPI had the Saint John's types better figured out than NET does. RPI pegs them at 96 rather than 72 on NET. Same goes for the Big Ten with Michigan and Purdue. Straight NET has both in. RPI has Michigan there at 61 and Purdue (one game over .500) at 81. But RPI is far from perfect.

(01-30-2020 09:32 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I think the metric is too new to consider outcomes. However, one is going to have to reconcile this conference performance component. If NET is so valuable, will it trump that conference record piece if the NET is high and the quality wins are there?

And it does ask a bigger question: when you have good wins in and out of the conference, shouldn't that take precedence?

We look at the projected records of some of the Big East basement teams and discount them. But, again, if you're Saint John's, and you finish 18-13 by season's end, but your win tally includes West Virginia, Arizona, Seton Hall, and Villanova...how do you deal with it?

IMO, RPI had the Saint John's types better figured out than NET does. RPI pegs them at 96 rather than 72 on NET. Same goes for the Big Ten with Michigan and Purdue. Straight NET has both in. RPI has Michigan there at 61 and Purdue (one game over .500) at 81. But RPI is far from perfect.

If St John's beats Seton Hall and Villanova- both on the road- they're going to get in. They'd be 5-7 away from home, not great but not awful either. With 3 high level wins.....

(01-30-2020 09:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If St John's beats Seton Hall and Villanova- both on the road- they're going to get in. They'd be 5-7 away from home, not great but not awful either. With 3 high level wins.....

That's what I mean...others in the conference performed better within it, and more wins, but who is counted in that win total carries weight.

Saint John's and Purdue are interesting ones to watch metrically. Purdue and their NET is close to what Penn State was last year with theirs. Unreal to me that you can be top 40 NET and barely over .500. Saint John's...we do seem to believe they don't warrant consideration, but, technically, there aren't any bad losses there to totally discount them if they were to pick up another big name or two.

Quite honestly, Purdue has zero business being considered either, but, same thing for them...and were they to bag Iowa, Penn State, and Rutgers at home, they probably do get some serious consideration.

(01-29-2020 08:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-29-2020 10:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the tournament field had been set on Monday based solely on NET ranking (which, of course, it isn't) this is how it would shake out, by conference. The last four in with their W-L record and NET rank are shown in parentheses next to their conference.

B1G 12 teams (Indiana 15-5, 44)

Funny that few of the conference RPI or Power ratings have the B1G as the #1 conference. Most have the Big 12 or the Big East at #1.

Out of metrics used by the committee, BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin all have the Big 10 as the number one overall conference by a pretty solid margin. I think RPI and Massey are the only 2 I can find that have either the Big 12 or Big East number one.

Just from this schmoe's perspective, the Big Ten has emerged as the nation's top conference (currently).

(01-30-2020 09:48 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(01-29-2020 08:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-29-2020 10:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the tournament field had been set on Monday based solely on NET ranking (which, of course, it isn't) this is how it would shake out, by conference. The last four in with their W-L record and NET rank are shown in parentheses next to their conference.

B1G 12 teams (Indiana 15-5, 44)

Funny that few of the conference RPI or Power ratings have the B1G as the #1 conference. Most have the Big 12 or the Big East at #1.

Out of metrics used by the committee, BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin all have the Big 10 as the number one overall conference by a pretty solid margin. I think RPI and Massey are the only 2 I can find that have either the Big 12 or Big East number one.

I don't think Sagarin is any use for basketball, and I didn't know BPI has conference rankings, will have to check that out - looked at ESPN and only saw teams.

I'm an old RPI guy myself, LOL.