the round robin really starting to take it's toll.... Lunardi released his bracketology today. remember prior to conference play had 8 teams in...

well right now only 6 with Georgetown the next to last team in..... 5 teams is getting more possible by the game.

(01-17-2020 11:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the round robin really starting to take it's toll.... Lunardi released his bracketology today. remember prior to conference play had 8 teams in...

well right now only 6 with Georgetown the next to last team in..... 5 teams is getting more possible by the game.

Yes/no.

Right now, the "bottom" five teams - X, MU, GT, DP, SJ - have faced each other a combined four times. We need to wait and see another two weeks (when conference play will be about half-way done) to see where the teams rank out after that.

Ultimately, until conference play concludes, we won't know the full impact of everyone's resumes. Providence has definitely been the biggest surprise. I'm not mad at all, unlike a few other BE fans, that they have now turned-it-up in conference play. The gauntlet that is Big East play can only help strengthen and fortify the tournament teams we do get (whether that is 5, 6, or 7).

No nights off.

of the 5 lower teams- not counting Marquette, but counting Providence... They have played each other 6 times already out of the 20 times they play each other. St John's has already played 4 such games, Providence 3, Georgetown and DePaul twice, and Xavier one.

The key for Providence now will be can they get into the top 75. If so great. If not, those losses that DePaul and Marquette took at home vs them would be Q3 losses.

6 is for sure, 7 is more likely. As stated above, the schedule has been quite imbalanced so far and that will come around in the next few weeks and we'll see for sure where people stand. 8 is still not out of the question, although highly improbable now that Providence is stealing wins, DePaul is doing what DePaul does, and Xavier is getting itself in a hole already.

(01-17-2020 02:13 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  6 is for sure, 7 is more likely. As stated above, the schedule has been quite imbalanced so far and that will come around in the next few weeks and we'll see for sure where people stand. 8 is still not out of the question, although highly improbable now that Providence is stealing wins, DePaul is doing what DePaul does, and Xavier is getting itself in a hole already.

I wouldn't say 6 is for sure at all....

just using the Ken Pom projections. Binary so even at 51% it's a win

G- 17-14 7-11
PC- 13-18 6-12
X- 16-15 5-13
SJ- 15-16 4-14
D- 16-15 4-14

none of those 5 teams would make the tourney short of winning the BET. Maybe Georgetown if they made the final, but that would be extremely iffy.

8 is short of a ton of upsets and then a surprise team winning the BET totally gone now.

(01-17-2020 02:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:13 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  6 is for sure, 7 is more likely. As stated above, the schedule has been quite imbalanced so far and that will come around in the next few weeks and we'll see for sure where people stand. 8 is still not out of the question, although highly improbable now that Providence is stealing wins, DePaul is doing what DePaul does, and Xavier is getting itself in a hole already.

I wouldn't say 6 is for sure at all....

just using the Ken Pom projections. Binary so even at 51% it's a win

G- 17-14 7-11
PC- 13-18 6-12
X- 16-15 5-13
SJ- 15-16 4-14
D- 16-15 4-14

none of those 5 teams would make the tourney short of winning the BET. Maybe Georgetown if they made the final, but that would be extremely iffy.

8 is short of a ton of upsets and then a surprise team winning the BET totally gone now.

I don't have KenPom. What are the projected records of the top-5 teams? With four 12+ loss programs at the bottom, that would mean - conversely - the top of the league would likely be 14-4, 14-4 and 13-5. If that ends up being Seton Hall, Butler and Villanova, they would be in excellent position to likely each get top-4 seeds in March, considering their resumes.

(01-17-2020 03:17 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:13 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  6 is for sure, 7 is more likely. As stated above, the schedule has been quite imbalanced so far and that will come around in the next few weeks and we'll see for sure where people stand. 8 is still not out of the question, although highly improbable now that Providence is stealing wins, DePaul is doing what DePaul does, and Xavier is getting itself in a hole already.

I wouldn't say 6 is for sure at all....

just using the Ken Pom projections. Binary so even at 51% it's a win

G- 17-14 7-11
PC- 13-18 6-12
X- 16-15 5-13
SJ- 15-16 4-14
D- 16-15 4-14

none of those 5 teams would make the tourney short of winning the BET. Maybe Georgetown if they made the final, but that would be extremely iffy.

8 is short of a ton of upsets and then a surprise team winning the BET totally gone now.

I don't have KenPom. What are the projected records of the top-5 teams? With four 12+ loss programs at the bottom, that would mean - conversely - the top of the league would likely be 14-4, 14-4 and 13-5. If that ends up being Seton Hall, Butler and Villanova, they would be in excellent position to likely each get top-4 seeds in March, considering their resumes.

First off, before I go to look for those- I agree with you. And I think it would be better for the league quite frankly....
SH 17-1 25-5
But 16-2 28-3
Nova 13-5 24-7
Marq 9-9 19-11
Cre 9-9 20-11

Seton Hall and Butler would be in incredible shape. Right there fighting for 1 seeds(which if they could get could be gigantic- Butler in Indianapolis and Seton Hall in MSG). Nova would be a 4-5 seed I'd guess. Marquette and Creighton would be in the pit of misery it feels like.

BET would look like
8 Xavier vs 9 St Johns
7 Providence vs 10 DePaul

X/SJ vs 1 Seton Hall
4 Marquette vs 5 Creighton
PC//Dep vs 2 Butler
3 Villanova vs 6 Georgetown

Georgetown would have a chance to sneak into the tourney if they could upset both Nova and Butler.

I would be almost stunned (and very disappointed) if the Big East got only five NCAA tourney bids. Seven is the goal but six might be the final tally.

Eight is now a long-shot (and probably always was) but ... there are still 10 BE teams ranging from good to outstanding. So eight, though remote, cannot be fully dismissed.

One thing of note: The imbalance between the four teams with the best league records and the other six needs to "tighten." The differential is creating a somewhat less-than-ideal perception at this point. However, there are more than enough games for that to work itself out. I'm not worried.

(01-17-2020 02:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:13 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  6 is for sure, 7 is more likely. As stated above, the schedule has been quite imbalanced so far and that will come around in the next few weeks and we'll see for sure where people stand. 8 is still not out of the question, although highly improbable now that Providence is stealing wins, DePaul is doing what DePaul does, and Xavier is getting itself in a hole already.

I wouldn't say 6 is for sure at all....

just using the Ken Pom projections. Binary so even at 51% it's a win

G- 17-14 7-11
PC- 13-18 6-12
X- 16-15 5-13
SJ- 15-16 4-14
D- 16-15 4-14

none of those 5 teams would make the tourney short of winning the BET. Maybe Georgetown if they made the final, but that would be extremely iffy.

8 is short of a ton of upsets and then a surprise team winning the BET totally gone now.

If you go strictly by the numbers (and you are a master at crunching them, S20) then six might not be a certainty. But given how strong the Big East has been this year, I could see the committee (in this hypothetical) going, "OK, the 'sixth-best' BE team finished 19-14 but the league was a meat-grinder, so that team will be invited."

It would be almost insulting to take only five BE teams — barring some type of monumental collapse by the collective "bottom six" from this point forward. At least two of the teams not in the top four now should emerge. And there's your six. The goal, however, is seven. That will not be easy but it's doable.

(01-17-2020 05:46 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:13 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  6 is for sure, 7 is more likely. As stated above, the schedule has been quite imbalanced so far and that will come around in the next few weeks and we'll see for sure where people stand. 8 is still not out of the question, although highly improbable now that Providence is stealing wins, DePaul is doing what DePaul does, and Xavier is getting itself in a hole already.

I wouldn't say 6 is for sure at all....

just using the Ken Pom projections. Binary so even at 51% it's a win

G- 17-14 7-11
PC- 13-18 6-12
X- 16-15 5-13
SJ- 15-16 4-14
D- 16-15 4-14

none of those 5 teams would make the tourney short of winning the BET. Maybe Georgetown if they made the final, but that would be extremely iffy.

8 is short of a ton of upsets and then a surprise team winning the BET totally gone now.

If you go strictly by the numbers (and you are a master at crunching them, S20) then six might not be a certainty. But given how strong the Big East has been this year, I could see the committee (in this hypothetical) going, "OK, the 'sixth-best' BE team finished 19-14 but the league was a meat-grinder, so that team will be invited."

It would be almost insulting to take only five BE teams — barring some type of monumental collapse by the collective "bottom six" from this point forward. At least two of the teams not in the top four now should emerge. And there's your six. The goal, however, is seven. That will not be easy but it's doable.

The problem is there's no one on pace to finish 19-14. Even if you do the % chances- there's only 5... The best one is Georgetown- but they're only at 17-14 and a 1st rd date with Nova. That's just not good enough.

I always say teams get bids, not conferences. This is a great example.

And yes, if things played out like this, it's the most damning indictment of the round robin just about ever. If this was a 12/18 setup- it would have been close to impossible to not wind up with 7-8 teams.

(01-17-2020 05:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 05:46 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 02:13 PM)MU in MKE Wrote:  6 is for sure, 7 is more likely. As stated above, the schedule has been quite imbalanced so far and that will come around in the next few weeks and we'll see for sure where people stand. 8 is still not out of the question, although highly improbable now that Providence is stealing wins, DePaul is doing what DePaul does, and Xavier is getting itself in a hole already.

I wouldn't say 6 is for sure at all....

just using the Ken Pom projections. Binary so even at 51% it's a win

G- 17-14 7-11
PC- 13-18 6-12
X- 16-15 5-13
SJ- 15-16 4-14
D- 16-15 4-14

none of those 5 teams would make the tourney short of winning the BET. Maybe Georgetown if they made the final, but that would be extremely iffy.

8 is short of a ton of upsets and then a surprise team winning the BET totally gone now.

If you go strictly by the numbers (and you are a master at crunching them, S20) then six might not be a certainty. But given how strong the Big East has been this year, I could see the committee (in this hypothetical) going, "OK, the 'sixth-best' BE team finished 19-14 but the league was a meat-grinder, so that team will be invited."

It would be almost insulting to take only five BE teams — barring some type of monumental collapse by the collective "bottom six" from this point forward. At least two of the teams not in the top four now should emerge. And there's your six. The goal, however, is seven. That will not be easy but it's doable.

The problem is there's no one on pace to finish 19-14. Even if you do the % chances- there's only 5... The best one is Georgetown- but they're only at 17-14 and a 1st rd date with Nova. That's just not good enough.

I always say teams get bids, not conferences. This is a great example.

And yes, if things played out like this, it's the most damning indictment of the round robin just about ever. If this was a 12/18 setup- it would have been close to impossible to not wind up with 7-8 teams.

The key phrase is "no team on pace." That could change. I predict it will and that the BE gets six, and rather comfortably. Seven is the goal but will be a challenge at this point (admittedly).

I do agree fully, S20, that it might be only five. But six simply seems more appropriate given the BE will likely finish as one of the three best leagues this year.

And though the round-robin might limit the league for bids, it is HUGELY attractive for building rivalries (and thus bolstering attendance and recruiting).

But your points are very well made.

Now it's time for me to quaff some fine craft beer and chat up multiple lovely ladies as my weekend commences.

Carry on, lads.

Myles Powell does not suck.

Great comeback win for the Pirates today. Large number of Seton Hall fans in attendance and second half was taken over by SHU both on the court and in the stands. Powell is the best player in college basketball -- all around game is absolutely phenomenal. Just keep winning. Next up is a home game on Wednesday against Providence... should be a good one.

NET Rankings through 1/18

Butler 7
Seton Hall 12
Villanova 17
Marquette 30
Creighton 33
DePaul 51
Georgetown 52
Xavier 68
St. John's 76
Providence 80

Butler remains, despite losing at DePaul (who moves up 12 spots). Marquette moves up 5 spots (Georgetown only moving down 4). Creighton drops 3 despite beating Providence (who still moved up 5 spots). St. John's drops one spot after home loss to Hall (who dropped one spot). Villanova moved up three spots after beating UConn (I believe that officially concludes the Big East OOC games this year).

Interesting notes - Wichita State plummeted fifteen spots after home loss to Houston (who moved up ten spots). The AAC currently has zero top-25 NET teams, with its 4th place team at 64 (Cincinnati). Unless there is a bid thief, hard to imagine a 4th bid to the AAC this year. Dayton, who is #5, has zero wins over top-30 programs (highest ranked = #42 St. Mary's). The top-5 of the A10 (#5 Dayton, #45 VCU, #54 SLU, #55 Duquesne and #56 Richmond = average of 43) is rated higher than the top of the AAC (Memphis #28, Wichita State #31, Houston #34, Cincinnati #64 and SMU #70 = average of 46). The 6th place teams (Rhode Island #62 and Temple #81) also highlight a slight edge to the A10. Will be interesting to see if Dayton and San Diego State can continue their winning ways, which would undoubtedly lead to a high seed in the tournament.

It goes to once again emphasize that in order for the full impact of the NET will not be felt until the conclusion of the regular season. However, the more quality wins for all of the programs that come into conference play (like the Big East had this year), it provides meaningful win opportunities in every game (something many other conferences do not have), especially if the conference continues to lack a true bottom.

Frustrating for WVU go on the road to a horrible K-State team and get destroyed, and drop ONE spot, and then we go to St John's - a decent team - and win, and ALSO drop a spot in the NET. What?

(01-19-2020 03:04 PM)Ole Blue Wrote:  Frustrating for WVU go on the road to a horrible K-State team and get destroyed, and drop ONE spot, and then we go to St John's - a decent team - and win, and ALSO drop a spot in the NET. What?

one thing for Seton Hall is always have to look at Iowa State given you played them twice.... Iowa St lost by 20 points yesterday to Texas Tech...

Going into yesterday
Kansas St was #103 and St John's was #75. So not a huge difference there at all.

Seton Hall also got unlucky that Louisville and Arizona won and jumped them...

(01-19-2020 12:56 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  NET Rankings through 1/18

Butler 7
Seton Hall 12
Villanova 17
Marquette 30
Creighton 33
DePaul 51
Georgetown 52
Xavier 68
St. John's 76
Providence 80

Butler remains, despite losing at DePaul (who moves up 12 spots). Marquette moves up 5 spots (Georgetown only moving down 4). Creighton drops 3 despite beating Providence (who still moved up 5 spots). St. John's drops one spot after home loss to Hall (who dropped one spot). Villanova moved up three spots after beating UConn (I believe that officially concludes the Big East OOC games this year).

Interesting notes - Wichita State plummeted fifteen spots after home loss to Houston (who moved up ten spots). The AAC currently has zero top-25 NET teams, with its 4th place team at 64 (Cincinnati). Unless there is a bid thief, hard to imagine a 4th bid to the AAC this year. Dayton, who is #5, has zero wins over top-30 programs (highest ranked = #42 St. Mary's). The top-5 of the A10 (#5 Dayton, #45 VCU, #54 SLU, #55 Duquesne and #56 Richmond = average of 43) is rated higher than the top of the AAC (Memphis #28, Wichita State #31, Houston #34, Cincinnati #64 and SMU #70 = average of 46). The 6th place teams (Rhode Island #62 and Temple #81) also highlight a slight edge to the A10. Will be interesting to see if Dayton and San Diego State can continue their winning ways, which would undoubtedly lead to a high seed in the tournament.

It goes to once again emphasize that in order for the full impact of the NET will not be felt until the conclusion of the regular season. However, the more quality wins for all of the programs that come into conference play (like the Big East had this year), it provides meaningful win opportunities in every game (something many other conferences do not have), especially if the conference continues to lack a true bottom.

The Big East problem IMO is not the power of the teams. It's going to be the records... Everyone has 12-13 conference games left right now. Have 4 teams already with 6+ losses.

(01-19-2020 03:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-19-2020 12:56 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  NET Rankings through 1/18

Butler 7
Seton Hall 12
Villanova 17
Marquette 30
Creighton 33
DePaul 51
Georgetown 52
Xavier 68
St. John's 76
Providence 80

Butler remains, despite losing at DePaul (who moves up 12 spots). Marquette moves up 5 spots (Georgetown only moving down 4). Creighton drops 3 despite beating Providence (who still moved up 5 spots). St. John's drops one spot after home loss to Hall (who dropped one spot). Villanova moved up three spots after beating UConn (I believe that officially concludes the Big East OOC games this year).

Interesting notes - Wichita State plummeted fifteen spots after home loss to Houston (who moved up ten spots). The AAC currently has zero top-25 NET teams, with its 4th place team at 64 (Cincinnati). Unless there is a bid thief, hard to imagine a 4th bid to the AAC this year. Dayton, who is #5, has zero wins over top-30 programs (highest ranked = #42 St. Mary's). The top-5 of the A10 (#5 Dayton, #45 VCU, #54 SLU, #55 Duquesne and #56 Richmond = average of 43) is rated higher than the top of the AAC (Memphis #28, Wichita State #31, Houston #34, Cincinnati #64 and SMU #70 = average of 46). The 6th place teams (Rhode Island #62 and Temple #81) also highlight a slight edge to the A10. Will be interesting to see if Dayton and San Diego State can continue their winning ways, which would undoubtedly lead to a high seed in the tournament.

It goes to once again emphasize that in order for the full impact of the NET will not be felt until the conclusion of the regular season. However, the more quality wins for all of the programs that come into conference play (like the Big East had this year), it provides meaningful win opportunities in every game (something many other conferences do not have), especially if the conference continues to lack a true bottom.

The Big East problem IMO is not the power of the teams. It's going to be the records... Everyone has 12-13 conference games left right now. Have 4 teams already with 6+ losses.

But, six teams are on pace for ar least 9 conference wins (albeit one of them is Providence). I think the key will be for Xavier/DePaul/Georgetown to pick up ground on Providence to solidify a 6th team.

(01-19-2020 04:09 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(01-19-2020 03:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-19-2020 12:56 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  NET Rankings through 1/18

Butler 7
Seton Hall 12
Villanova 17
Marquette 30
Creighton 33
DePaul 51
Georgetown 52
Xavier 68
St. John's 76
Providence 80

Butler remains, despite losing at DePaul (who moves up 12 spots). Marquette moves up 5 spots (Georgetown only moving down 4). Creighton drops 3 despite beating Providence (who still moved up 5 spots). St. John's drops one spot after home loss to Hall (who dropped one spot). Villanova moved up three spots after beating UConn (I believe that officially concludes the Big East OOC games this year).

Interesting notes - Wichita State plummeted fifteen spots after home loss to Houston (who moved up ten spots). The AAC currently has zero top-25 NET teams, with its 4th place team at 64 (Cincinnati). Unless there is a bid thief, hard to imagine a 4th bid to the AAC this year. Dayton, who is #5, has zero wins over top-30 programs (highest ranked = #42 St. Mary's). The top-5 of the A10 (#5 Dayton, #45 VCU, #54 SLU, #55 Duquesne and #56 Richmond = average of 43) is rated higher than the top of the AAC (Memphis #28, Wichita State #31, Houston #34, Cincinnati #64 and SMU #70 = average of 46). The 6th place teams (Rhode Island #62 and Temple #81) also highlight a slight edge to the A10. Will be interesting to see if Dayton and San Diego State can continue their winning ways, which would undoubtedly lead to a high seed in the tournament.

It goes to once again emphasize that in order for the full impact of the NET will not be felt until the conclusion of the regular season. However, the more quality wins for all of the programs that come into conference play (like the Big East had this year), it provides meaningful win opportunities in every game (something many other conferences do not have), especially if the conference continues to lack a true bottom.

The Big East problem IMO is not the power of the teams. It's going to be the records... Everyone has 12-13 conference games left right now. Have 4 teams already with 6+ losses.

But, six teams are on pace for ar least 9 conference wins (albeit one of them is Providence). I think the key will be for Xavier/DePaul/Georgetown to pick up ground on Providence to solidify a 6th team.

The key is gonna be 1 of those 3 teams to dominate the other. If they all go 2-2 vs each other- going to be really difficult.

It will be interesting to see how DePaul fares after beating Butler. Maybe this will give them a morale and confidence boost.