Food for thoughts... I'm thinking that this "Revised TV Deal" that is coming has nothing to do with UConn, it has everything to do with changes to AAC membership to cover the ESPN loses in the Mountain Time Zone.

Maybe. Maybe not. Truth is... I have no idea.

However, if it gives me a reason to rip on UConn... I'm all for it.

I am very interested in ESPN’s reaction, if any, to losing the MWC to a rival.

Get ready for them 10:30 starts

(01-10-2020 07:28 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Food for thoughts... I'm thinking that this "Revised TV Deal" that is coming has nothing to do with UConn, it has everything to do with changes to AAC membership to cover the ESPN loses in the Mountain Time Zone.

I'm all for discussing the implications of the ESPN losses in the MTZ

Whatever the specific factors are that caused the revised TV deal to be under discussion, the important thing is that they are happening.

BTW, the first announcements from ESPN after UConn's departure was made clear were that there would be no changes to the AAC contracts.

We were told that, by the terms of the contract, the deal wouldn't have to be renegotiated in any way unless two AAC schools were to leave the conference.

If that was true, then there might be a contract violation, unless the ESPN lawyers were able to make the case that the 12 year contract hadn't kicked in yet, so they were technically able to "Welsh" on the deal. Maybe it's immaterial...who among us knows.

At least, they haven't cut the contractual payments to the AAC schools for the next 12 years. However, there were presumably provisions in the signed contract agreement that spelled out the details as to where the money that would have gone to school X would go if school X were to leave the conference.

.
It's hard to understand why the AAC agreed to a renegotiation of their contract, when that should have been handled by the provisions in the 12 school contract.

You may be right in surmising that perhaps ESPN got the approval of the AAC because the truth is that they want to use this opportunity to get a MWC school or two into the AAC.

If so, that would probably be ok, as long as they also replace UConn BB with a high quality BB school.

Part of this has to with the absolute silence regarding the contract, ESPN and the Commissioner both knew that UConn would leave but yet the deal was signed after a substantial delay.

Also pretty sure ESPN knew exactly what the end game would be with the MW negotiations, perhaps ESPN i looking to get MW Tier 3 contend on the cheap for ESPN+ before raiding them.

This may be the process to get all the details in order prior to July 1st before making any comments.

I wonder how Boise feels about moving away from ESPN. I wonder how ESPN feels about losing Boise.

Would ESPN work to get them back? Or retaliate by helping AF move? Or is ESPN good with it....

If I let my mind wonder a little more than usual ... It would start with Air Force/VCU and then either SDSU and BSU or BYU and SDSU/BSU combo with a long shot of BSU/VCU.

Who knows, My guess is they won't be forcing a #12 on us, and the cut in revenue will be at most all of UConn's share, or just part of it. Being this renegotiation is taking a while, though (I would not have expected any thing over the holidays,) I would not rule out the idea of a western grab. Question is does ESPN want any MWC football content enough to pay 5 to 10 million for it. I doubt it. For us to add a full sport they likely need to kick in an extra 500k per year per school to pay for travel, otherwise current members lose out.

(01-10-2020 08:21 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  I wonder how Boise feels about moving away from ESPN. I wonder how ESPN feels about losing Boise.

Would ESPN work to get them back? Or retaliate by helping AF move? Or is ESPN good with it....

Why wouldn't be good with it? The Mouse/ESPiN are about to mortgage the house with the SEC TV deal and they still have BYU. It's a drop in the bucket money wise to lose the MWC and it will free up a little money to use elsewhere.

(01-10-2020 08:30 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  If I let my mind wonder a little more than usual ... It would start with Air Force/VCU and then either SDSU and BSU or BYU and SDSU/BSU combo with a long shot of BSU/VCU.

With the new MWC deal, I think AF is much less likely. Probably is not worth the splitting sports up for 2 mil per year. Much of that would be eaten up by Travel cost.

If I had to guess; I'd say, the AAC will grow to 14 teams in Football and Basketball. We will add a couple Western schools and take a few of the vacated late night kickoff times for ESPN and ESPN+. For which the conference will reach the covetted 10 mil per full member per year.
That's if I had to guess.

If we have to add a member and no MWC teams are available La Tech would not be a terrible addition and it might help solidify the Louisiana market.

(01-10-2020 08:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-10-2020 08:30 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  If I let my mind wonder a little more than usual ... It would start with Air Force/VCU and then either SDSU and BSU or BYU and SDSU/BSU combo with a long shot of BSU/VCU.

With the new MWC deal, I think AF is much less likely. Probably is not worth the splitting sports up for 2 mil per year. Much of that would be eaten up by Travel cost.

It’s more than just 2 million. More like $3.5, and that doesn’t include our higher NCAA credits, better bowls and having time slots that would actually feature them.... plus, who says we can’t take all their sports. They work perfectly as a western partner.
Nice and close to witchita, Tulsa, SMU, and Houston ... plus hit bad travel for Memphis and Tulane. They work great as an all sports member.

(01-10-2020 08:44 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(01-10-2020 08:21 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  I wonder how Boise feels about moving away from ESPN. I wonder how ESPN feels about losing Boise.

Would ESPN work to get them back? Or retaliate by helping AF move? Or is ESPN good with it....

Why wouldn't be good with it? The Mouse/ESPiN are about to mortgage the house with the SEC TV deal and they still have BYU. It's a drop in the bucket money wise to lose the MWC and it will free up a little money to use elsewhere.

True. The SEC deal is huge for them.

But I am talking about late night windows. Currently, ESPN has half the Pac 12 and BYU. Fox has half the Pac 12, Boise and some MWC content. CBS/CBSSN has some MWC content.

Seems to me like ESPN could steal Boise "for free" - i.e. with the money they already committed for UConn. This would help ESPN with late night windows, and hurt competitors.

Imagine saving $20-25M a year (or whatever Fox paid for the Boise/MWC content) by not bidding on it, and then picking up Boise (by far the biggest TV draw in the MWC) for free?

Jed, ESPN has been dead silent since Conn left
AAC said let things play out & see where ESPN stands.
Fans claimed Conn did not count, everybody would split the extra money

(01-10-2020 11:17 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(01-10-2020 08:44 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(01-10-2020 08:21 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  I wonder how Boise feels about moving away from ESPN. I wonder how ESPN feels about losing Boise.

Would ESPN work to get them back? Or retaliate by helping AF move? Or is ESPN good with it....

Why wouldn't be good with it? The Mouse/ESPiN are about to mortgage the house with the SEC TV deal and they still have BYU. It's a drop in the bucket money wise to lose the MWC and it will free up a little money to use elsewhere.

True. The SEC deal is huge for them.

But I am talking about late night windows. Currently, ESPN has half the Pac 12 and BYU. Fox has half the Pac 12, Boise and some MWC content. CBS/CBSSN has some MWC content.

Seems to me like ESPN could steal Boise "for free" - i.e. with the money they already committed for UConn. This would help ESPN with late night windows, and hurt competitors.

Imagine saving $20-25M a year (or whatever Fox paid for the Boise/MWC content) by not bidding on it, and then picking up Boise (by far the biggest TV draw in the MWC) for free?

They will probably rotate Big XII, SEC and AAC into later start times, to fill the gap. It's not uncommon for an ESPN game featuring the SEC and/or Big XII to start at 9ET some weeks. This is what I see happening, just more often.

If a MWC team moves to AAC (say AF or CSU), it would be more about that institution wanting eastern exposure than more money.

That said, I think the AAC stays put till the Big 12's next media deal is finalized. BYU is the only plum out there and I think the AAC waits patiently for BYU's decision about continued independence if not chosen by Big 12. It also gives time for a more eastern school to flourish and become an attractive candidate. Institutional profile matters to presidents. We're in waiting mode.

(01-10-2020 09:48 AM)Mestophalies Wrote:  If I had to guess; I'd say, the AAC will grow to 14 teams in Football and Basketball. We will add a couple Western schools and take a few of the vacated late night kickoff times for ESPN and ESPN+. For which the conference will reach the covetted 10 mil per full member per year.
That's if I had to guess.

I find that to be far fetched. You take a conference whose teams were deemed to be worth $7m each, add in 3 teams from a conference whose teams are worth $3.5m each, and all of a sudden they are all worth $10m each? Cuz math?

(01-10-2020 08:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-10-2020 08:30 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  If I let my mind wonder a little more than usual ... It would start with Air Force/VCU and then either SDSU and BSU or BYU and SDSU/BSU combo with a long shot of BSU/VCU.

With the new MWC deal, I think AF is much less likely. Probably is not worth the splitting sports up for 2 mil per year. Much of that would be eaten up by Travel cost.

I would think it would still make sense for them, their travel would basically be a wash, I know the MW looks like nice tight foot print of bordering states but the states from the Rockies going West and Southwest are huge compared to most states East of the Mississippi.

ESPN is all about control, money, and market dominance, with the right picks AF (Colorado and National following), SDSU (Total domination of the San Diego Market), and BSU (Total domination of Idaho with some national following) or BYU (Might take lead in Utah market, split SLC, and have a huge National following).

BYU and AF would love the Eastern exposure... BYU to spread their "brand" , and AF for recruiting those pilots.

14 members, Western POD, a couple of extra $$$ either up front or during the 2026 "look in window" and plenty of contend for MT and PT late night market.