There were a few schools in AAC around 20,000 at 1 point.

Buffalo & GA St are pipe dreams. Neither will have acceptable fan support to add value to the AAC. And GA St has yet to put a competitive FB team on the field besides. NO ADDED VALUE. App St is the only east school that makes sense.

There 7 Div 1 schools in NC, I would think App St has tough time growing their support.
There on nice run right now, what makes you think they can sustained the run.

IDK but Mike Aresco has been extremely quite as of late.

(01-06-2020 07:46 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  There 7 Div 1 schools in NC, I would think App St has tough time growing their support.
There on nice run right now, what makes you think they can sustained the run.

They seem to be doing a better job than most not in the AAC. Point is if BYU doesn't want to join us, no plan makes sense to go west. I think that means we don't add anyone, but for those that think we will add someone then App St with a growing program that competes within our footprint is the best choice.

(01-06-2020 06:17 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  Buffalo & GA St are pipe dreams. Neither will have acceptable fan support to add value to the AAC. And GA St has yet to put a competitive FB team on the field besides. NO ADDED VALUE. App St is the only east school that makes sense.

Agree about GA State, but not about App State or Buffalo.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

App St. could make sense, but the only AAC criteria that they meet are (1) successful FB program, and (2) starting to gain some national recognition (but could be a "flash in the pan"). They could add some regional rivalries and geographical proximity to some AAC East schools (less important considerations).

However, App State could be a very risky proposition, because there's no guarantee that their FB program will be successful in the decades to come. App State FB could tank if their HC moves on to the P5 and is replaced by a less gifted HC.

Moreover, App State doesn't fit the profile of the other AAC schools very well, and fails to meet several AAC criteria:

* Not a R1 research university, an AAU school, or a flagship school.

* While App St. has begun to gain some regional and national recognition, it's not clear if they have the potential to develop the kind of "brand" that the AAC seeks.

* Whether or not App St. could be competitive in the AAC over the long term is uncertain.

* Location in Boone, NC (metro area population ~ 55,000).

* Although App St. is within 2 hours of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Asheville, and Charlotte, NC, each of these cities has a FBS team (Wake Forest, UNC Charlotte) and/or a school in the UNC system (Asheville, Greensboro). In addition, Duke and NC State have large contingents of fans in N.C.

* Due to its geographical proximity to ECU (also in NC), and to the universities cited above, it's not clear that App State would add an adequate viewership market during .500 or lower FB seasons.

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While The State University of New York (SUNY) at Buffalo (a.k.a., the University at Buffalo) may be no higher than a fourth or fifth option on the AAC's list of potential (FB-only or all-sports) members, Buffalo would check off a lot more of the boxes on the AAC's list of criteria, and has several other advantages over App. State:

*"The State University of New York at Buffalo (University at Buffalo, UB, or SUNY Buffalo) is a public research university with campuses in Buffalo and Amherst, New York. It is the flagship campus of the State University of New York (SUNY) system, with the largest enrollment, largest endowment, and research funding as a comprehensive university center."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_at_Buffalo

* SUNY Buffalo is the only major State (Public) University in the State of New York with a FBS program.

* SUNY Buffalo has the distinction of being one of the nation's 63 AAU Universities, and would double the number of AAU schools in the AAC.

* SUNY Buffalo is a R1 research university with strong academics.

* The combination of AAU status, R1 status, SUNY status, and State Flagship status gives SUNY Buffalo the potential to develop a nationally recognized brand.

* SUNY Buffalo has a sizable enrollment (~29,500) and is located in a sizable city (metro population: 1,135,509), and is only a 1 hr, 15 min. drive from two other sizable metro areas (Rochester: metro pop. 1,082,284; Hamilton, Ontario; 763,445). Toronto, Ontario (metro: 5,928,040) is 2 hours away). There is a sizable Canadian audience for American football. The combined population of the region surrounding Buffalo is over 10,000,000.

* The addition of SUNY Buffalo would maintain the AAC's proximity to (or location in) the northeastern U.S., and NYC metro area, which would otherwise be lost, due to the loss of UConn. In addition, despite its location in the northeastern U.S., New York State is also widely considered a middle atlantic state, SUNY Buffalo would also strengthen the AAC's presence in the middle atlantic region, along with Temple University and Navy.

--There is only one FBS competitor - - Syracuse University - - in the State of New York, or within a 2.75 hour drive. SUNY Buffalo has the potential - - and may have the current ability - - to be competitive with Syracuse in both FB and MBB.

--As such, SUNY Buffalo - - much more than App State - - would have the potential to add a heavily populated geographical region to the AAC, and/or

* As a member of the SUNY system of universities (analogous to UCLA, The University of California ("Cal"), and UCSD, all members of the "UC" system), while being the only school in the SUNY system (total enrollment: 440,000) with a FBS program, SUNY Buffalo (as a successful AAC member) would have the potential to tap into the huge viewership market comprised of SUNY students, alumni, and their families.

* SUNY Buffalo has had a competitive FB program in 2018 and 2019, including a 2019 bowl victory over Charlotte, 31-9. They had a P5 victory in 2018 and defeated Temple in both 2018 and 2019. With the resources that stem from AAC membership, the Buffalo Bulls have the potential to become a solid AAC FB program.

* SUNY Buffalo MBB has been quite successful over the past 6 seasons, with trips to the NCAA in 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019. They won their first-round NCAA games in both 2018 and 2019, and were ranked #15 in the final 2018-19 AP top 25.

* Though they don't have an AAC quality FB stadium, they would have the resources, as an AAC member, to refurbish/expand their stadium, build a new stadium, or play their games at the Buffalo Bills stadium.

(01-05-2020 05:54 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  

(01-05-2020 05:45 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(01-05-2020 05:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-05-2020 05:03 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(01-05-2020 02:35 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  This is a list of the bottom 20 FBS teams in average attendance based on their last 4 years of attendance (credit to Bullet for posting the list to the Realignment Board). It’s amazing how many of these bottom 20 teams keep getting mentioned as legit options to replace UConn. It’s just moronic.

Bottom 20 schools (Note Idaho was 11,566 their last 4 years in FBS, better than 3 schools on this list)
Texas State 16,456 SB
Buffalo 16,410 MAC
Miami, OH 16,400 MAC
Eastern Michigan 16,343 MAC
Georgia State 16,184 SB
Florida Atlantic 15,920 CUSA
Western Kentucky 15,708 CUSA
MTSU 15,673 CUSA
Bowling Green 15,340 MAC
Florida International 15,159 CUSA
New Mexico State 14,849 IND
San Jose State 14,819 MWC
Central Michigan 14,329 MAC
Louisiana-Monroe 13,569 SB
Coastal Carolina 13,538 SB
UNC Charlotte 12,531 CUSA
Kent State 12,506 MAC
Massachusetts 11,275 IND
Northern Illinois 10,308 MAC
Ball State 9,475 MAC

Was UCF's attendance that great before the AAC? Before UCF hired Frost.

UCF attendance was just over 30K the year before Frost. It was 32K the year before UCF began AAC play. So, it was not anywhere even remotely close to 16K if thats what you are asking. Id also point out---those are 4 year averages on that list---so its not like we are looking at one really bad year. None of the teams on that list should be considered as a viable option.

Wasn't UCF 0-12 the year before Frost. I guess that Baylor bowl game sold a lot of tickets. They did not show up. My only point is that a good coaching hire along with a top 4 recruiting state can make a big difference. Just look at the Frost hire.

Ucf hasn't had that level of attendance since playing 15 miles from campus in the mac. No way do we need a program that good attendance is viewed as 20k. We had a spring game with 23k before.

App State at least could have attendance potential moving up.

UCF Avg Attendance Last 14 Years

2018: 44,019
2017: 36,846
2016: 35,802
2015: 30,065
2014: 37,812
2013: 42,084
2012: 34,608
2011: 34,283
2010: 39,614
2009: 38,078
2008: 39,596
2007: 44,018
2006: 31,569
2005: 28,462

UCF moved into its on campus stadium for the 2007 season. So, even the two years before while playing at the Citrus Dump in downtown Orlando, UCF was averaging about 30,000.

From 2007 - 2016, UCF has mostly been averaging in the upper 30's, and even before the Knights recent three year run of success had four years very close to or over 40,000.

(01-06-2020 10:13 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(01-06-2020 07:46 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  There 7 Div 1 schools in NC, I would think App St has tough time growing their support.
There on nice run right now, what makes you think they can sustained the run.

They seem to be doing a better job than most not in the AAC. Point is if BYU doesn't want to join us, no plan makes sense to go west. I think that means we don't add anyone, but for those that think we will add someone then App St with a growing program that competes within our footprint is the best choice.

"(App State is on a) nice run right now, (but) what makes you think they can sustain the run(?)"

Good question, not 100% answered by saying that App St currently has "a growing program." For example, if their Head Coach should decide to move to greener pastures, will the program continue to prosper?

Adding a member is similar to getting married. It's a long-term commitment.

It's similar, as well, to making an investment with a long-term time horizon. The best policy, in all cases, is to do one's due diligence to the greatest extent feasible.

Just because a potential partner or investment has suddenly come out of nowhere and blossomed before your eyes doesn't mean that they will continue to be desirable 5 or 10 years later.

Things would be different if App State checked off most of the boxes on the AAC's list of criteria, but they don't; not yet, anyways.


.
"...for those that think we will add someone then App St with a growing program that competes within our footprint is the best choice."

There are very few fans of current AAC teams who consider App St "the best choice" or even one of the best choices.

The general consensus, at first, was that the best choices would be BYU, Army, or perhaps Boise St. At least two of these seemed to be on Commissioner Aresco's short list, but apparently, none of these were interested.

The next group of potential candidates, apparently, included 2 or 3 MWC schools, such as Air Force, SDSU or Colorado State, and possibly 1 or 2 others.

No school east of the Mississippi, with the possible exception of SUNY Buffalo, has gotten more than a modicum of support on this board from fans of AAC schools. Even SUNY Buffalo (a State Flagship, AAU, and R1 school with ~30,000 students that would expand the conference footprint) wouldn't qualify for membership unless they were prepared to announce major commitments to improve their facilities, branding, and athletic programs.

App State has been able to state their case and win a few to their cause, due to their recent FB success. However, a slew of other C-USA and Sun Belt schools have also been touted as possible AAC members.

If such a school were to make the AAC's short list, it would perhaps be a school with a much longer track record of success and a more widely recognized CFB brand, such as Marshall. But neither Marshall nor any of the Sun Belt or C-USA schools, other than Rice University, seem to fit the American's broader academic and legacy profile (former legacy members of the Big East, SEC, original SWC, or original (1995-1997) C-USA), schools located in sizable cities or with a storied history or a long track record of success; schools with R1 or AAU status).

.
Regarding their location well within the conference's footprint, it's not necessarily the case that the American is particularly inclined to add another school that's located near the center of the AAC footprint, especially a school that is located so close to the center of the vast and sparsely populated Appalachian wilderness area that runs from northern Georgia to northern Pennsylvania.

Being the nation's only truly pan- and multi-regional FBS conference, (thus the name, American Athletic Conference), the higher priority might be to expand its footprint. That would help to explain why most of the top candidates on the short lists (e.g., BYU, Boise, Air Force, SDSU, Colorado State) have been & are far to the west of the Mississippi. Army has been the only exception; they made the initial short list, not only due to the fact that it would do the most to bolster the AAC in the northeastern U.S. & the greater NYC metro area, but because Army is one of a handful of schools that have a truly nationwide (and international) fan base.

If the AAC had wanted any team from CUSA, MAC or the Sunbelt, we would have already taken them. We could have added them anytime... and we haven’t.

There’s is absolutely no advantage to waiting. All of them are under contract, we know exactly what we would need to do to move them and waiting only makes it harder on us.

If we were considering ANY of them, we wouldn’t have asked for a 2 year waiver. We could take them now.... but let’s for some wild and stupid speculation say that we’re using that time to transition, then we would have invited them already to start the process in order to help minimize their costs.

The entire conversation about any of those teams being added is stupid and in no way is supported by any evidence or logical line of thinking.

(01-07-2020 07:03 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  If the AAC had wanted any team from CUSA, MAC or the Sunbelt, we would have already taken them. We could have added them anytime... and we haven’t.

There’s is absolutely no advantage to waiting. All of them are under contract, we know exactly what we would need to do to move them and waiting only makes it harder on us.

If we were considering ANY of them, we wouldn’t have asked for a 2 year waiver. We could take them now.... but let’s for some wild and stupid speculation say that we’re using that time to transition, then we would have invited them already to start the process in order to help minimize their costs.

The entire conversation about any of those teams being added is stupid and in no way is supported by any evidence or logical line of thinking.

Along this line of thinking, the only one that makes any sense at all, is Liberty. Because they are independent, they would need extra time to clear their schedule of a conference slate. But I don't think it's that. I think we are waiting on MWC TV deal to finalize. That, and to "talk sense" to BYU. The problem with BYU is, they haven't really had good football seasons lately, so there's nothing for our leadership to point to, and say "See? If you had that record in OUR conference, you would be able to go to XYZ bowl. You would have been able to host a conference championship game."

(01-06-2020 10:07 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  IDK but Mike Aresco has been extremely quite as of late.

Quite right Big.

(01-06-2020 10:07 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  .
Mike Aresco has been extremely quiet as of late.

Aye, but of course, that could mean anything.

There've been two holiday weeks, meaning possibly, little to report.

However, his most recent statement included a couple of hints that the AAC wants to signal receptivity to offers, and that there may be a discernable preference to replace UConn within the two year limit.

In particular, he went out of his way to state, explicitly, that any qualified school, from coast to coast, would be considered for potential membership, even if they were in the Mountain and Pacific time zones.

That came across as the nearest thing yet to a direct FB-only invitation to schools such as AFA, SDSU, and of course BYU & Boise, possibly 1 or 2 other western schools.

By making it clear that a western FB-only member would be quite welcome, Aresco indirectly suggested, without mentioning BB or olympic sports, that any replacement for UConn BB/olympic sports would probably come from somewhere nearer to the AAC's geographical footprint.

Also of interest, some VCU fans have been showing interest in the AAC on their message boards. The overall message from VCU fans visiting our message board has also been positive.

It may not be too long before VCU's administration/president picks up the phone and gives Mr. Aresco a call.

(01-07-2020 07:10 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 07:03 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  If the AAC had wanted any team from CUSA, MAC or the Sunbelt, we would have already taken them. We could have added them anytime... and we haven’t.

There’s is absolutely no advantage to waiting. All of them are under contract, we know exactly what we would need to do to move them and waiting only makes it harder on us.

If we were considering ANY of them, we wouldn’t have asked for a 2 year waiver. We could take them now.... but let’s for some wild and stupid speculation say that we’re using that time to transition, then we would have invited them already to start the process in order to help minimize their costs.

The entire conversation about any of those teams being added is stupid and in no way is supported by any evidence or logical line of thinking.

Along this line of thinking, the only one that makes any sense at all, is Liberty. Because they are independent, they would need extra time to clear their schedule of a conference slate. But I don't think it's that. I think we are waiting on MWC TV deal to finalize. That, and to "talk sense" to BYU. The problem with BYU is, they haven't really had good football seasons lately, so there's nothing for our leadership to point to, and say "See? If you had that record in OUR conference, you would be able to go to XYZ bowl. You would have been able to host a conference championship game."

Liberty has no value either. However, if you replace "BYU" with "Air Force"---your last few sentences could be on to something.

Air Force / VCU is the most likely Scenario before 2025.

I say this in part because the AAC has no desire to go beyond 12 Football/12 Basketball Members.

(01-07-2020 11:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 07:10 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 07:03 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  If the AAC had wanted any team from CUSA, MAC or the Sunbelt, we would have already taken them. We could have added them anytime... and we haven’t.

There’s is absolutely no advantage to waiting. All of them are under contract, we know exactly what we would need to do to move them and waiting only makes it harder on us.

If we were considering ANY of them, we wouldn’t have asked for a 2 year waiver. We could take them now.... but let’s for some wild and stupid speculation say that we’re using that time to transition, then we would have invited them already to start the process in order to help minimize their costs.

The entire conversation about any of those teams being added is stupid and in no way is supported by any evidence or logical line of thinking.

Along this line of thinking, the only one that makes any sense at all, is Liberty. Because they are independent, they would need extra time to clear their schedule of a conference slate. But I don't think it's that. I think we are waiting on MWC TV deal to finalize. That, and to "talk sense" to BYU. The problem with BYU is, they haven't really had good football seasons lately, so there's nothing for our leadership to point to, and say "See? If you had that record in OUR conference, you would be able to go to XYZ bowl. You would have been able to host a conference championship game."

Liberty has no value either. However, if you replace "BYU" with "Air Force"---your last few sentences could be on to something.

Oh, I'm with YOU. I want AirForce, Boise, and Colorado State for a 3 team all sports western pod. If we only get one, I want AirForce. That's it. End of story. I was just answering the statement in the post above mine. That being:

"If the AAC had wanted any team from CUSA, MAC or the Sunbelt, we would have already taken them. We could have added them anytime... and we haven’t."

I took that to FULLY mean, "G5s that are East of the Mississippi".

One western school will not bring value to the AAC unless it is BYU. They are essential to any western expansion. Without BYU western expansion makes no sense. App St is a better one off choice to get back to 12 than any western expansion that doesn't include BYU. And adding no one may be a better choice than App St.

That's where we are if $$ value is the criteria.

(01-08-2020 08:51 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  One western school will not bring value to the AAC unless it is BYU. They are essential to any western expansion. Without BYU western expansion makes no sense. App St is a better one off choice to get back to 12 than any western expansion that doesn't include BYU. And adding no one may be a better choice than App St.

That's where we are if $$ value is the criteria.

Nope. Been round and round on this and anyone who understands tv contracts knows that Air Force has plenty of value.

BYU isn’t coming and App state has less than no chance of making it in. Seriously, None. They add no viewership when we already have ECU.

Only part of your statement that was correct is that adding no one is better than App St.

(01-08-2020 08:51 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  One western school will not bring value to the AAC unless it is BYU. They are essential to any western expansion. Without BYU western expansion makes no sense. App St is a better one off choice to get back to 12 than any western expansion that doesn't include BYU. And adding no one may be a better choice than App St.

That's where we are if $$ value is the criteria.

That's not even a slightly convincing argument, since you haven't presented any evidence at all for these conclusions, and because it is certainly an exaggeration to suggest that "One western school will not bring (any) value (at all) to the AAC."

The truth of the matter is that one western school (since the AAC would only offer membership to the better MWC schools) would expand the conference's footprint into the mountain or pacific States, and would almost undoubtedly add more value than UConn has added in the past few years.

Everyone would agree that a Boise or BYU would bring greater viewership than the lower-tier AAC FB schools.

However, the same could be said for SDSU and Air Force. SDSU is in a large metro area and would add a slice of the southern California FBS viewership.

Air Force's viewership ratings in 2019 have been quite similar to those of BYU and Boise St.

(01-06-2020 06:17 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  Buffalo & GA St are pipe dreams. Neither will have acceptable fan support to add value to the AAC. And GA St has yet to put a competitive FB team on the field besides. NO ADDED VALUE. App St is the only east school that makes sense.

I think there might be some recency bias in that assumption.

East schools that I'd take over App State (not saying I want any, but I'd take them over App)
Marshall
UAB
Southern Miss
Louisiana (not really East but...)

To be clear, still like BYU, SDSU, Boise, AF, CSU (in that order) better than all of those.

(01-08-2020 09:24 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(01-08-2020 08:51 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  One western school will not bring value to the AAC unless it is BYU. They are essential to any western expansion. Without BYU western expansion makes no sense. App St is a better one off choice to get back to 12 than any western expansion that doesn't include BYU. And adding no one may be a better choice than App St.

That's where we are if $$ value is the criteria.

Nope. Been round and round on this and anyone who understands tv contracts knows that Air Force has plenty of value.

BYU isn’t coming and App state has less than no chance of making it in. Seriously, None. They add no viewership when we already have ECU.

Only part of your statement that was correct is that adding no one is better than App St.

Wouldn't they add their viewers? We don't have the B1G deal.