14-4, we are in without a doubt. 13-5 we are sweating a bit. 12-6 lands us squarely on the bubble.

People overestimate the resumes of the real bubble teams this time of year. Its pretty bleak in early March. Our record is poor, but we’ll also have a Top 25 OOC SoS it appears.

OT: Huge commitment tonight for UC landing Tari Eason tonight.

(12-21-2019 05:38 PM)pesik Wrote:  looking great for a bid
wichita
memphis

still work to do, but you cant rule out
temple
uconn
houston
Cincinnati

essential out, but could sneak with an insane conference record
smu
ucf
tulsa
tulane

just finished- they arent making the tourney this year
usf
ecu

.
Assuming that a few effective adjustments can be made, Temple still has a fairly viable path to the NCAA tournament, given that two important players will soon be back in action after weeks of recovery from injuries.

Currently, Temple is 2-2 in Q1/Q2 games (Q1: 1-2; Q2: 1-0).

Temple (8-3) could finish their OOC schedule with 9 or 10 wins. Their remaining OOC games are vs Villanova (@ TU) and @ Penn. Temple's S.O.S. (SOS rank #27; see link) is ranked #3 in the conference.

The GAMER prediction model predicts that the Owls will finish the regular season ~ 22-9. This may be feasible, given that they only play Memphis and Houston once this season, with the latter being a home game.

GAMER prediction: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_120_Men.html

With hard work, a little luck, and a win in the AAC tournament, Temple could be a contender for a third or fourth at-large NCAA bid.

Odds for today

UConn by 19
Houston by 17.5
ECU 1.5 dog

(12-22-2019 01:54 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  14-4, we are in without a doubt. 13-5 we are sweating a bit. 12-6 lands us squarely on the bubble.

People overestimate the resumes of the real bubble teams this time of year. Its pretty bleak in early March. Our record is poor, but we’ll also have a Top 25 OOC SoS it appears.

OT: Huge commitment tonight for UC landing Tari Eason tonight.

Do you think Cincy is capable of going 14-4 or 13-5?

Their non-con display certainly casts a lot of doubt out there.

I'm not saying they can't do it, but based on what I've seen so far, it's gonna be an uphill battle.

(12-22-2019 12:24 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-22-2019 01:54 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  14-4, we are in without a doubt. 13-5 we are sweating a bit. 12-6 lands us squarely on the bubble.

People overestimate the resumes of the real bubble teams this time of year. Its pretty bleak in early March. Our record is poor, but we’ll also have a Top 25 OOC SoS it appears.

OT: Huge commitment tonight for UC landing Tari Eason tonight.

Do you think Cincy is capable of going 14-4 or 13-5?

Their non-con display certainly casts a lot of doubt out there.

I'm not saying they can't do it, but based on what I've seen so far, it's gonna be an uphill battle.

Yea, and they appear to have all the top end teams twice.. Wichita, Memphis, Houston, Temple, and UConn. Gotta steal at least one of those road games to even be in the conversation for 14-4.... Likely will need at least 2 as there will probably be a misstep elsewhere.

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Solid 3 bids with an auto-qualifier. Ouch.

UConn with some home cooking to start.. two incorrect block/charge calls to kick off the game

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(12-21-2019 05:26 PM)pesik Wrote:  interesting, between yesterday & today we had 6 extremely close games and lost all of them... a lot of those were must wins

this league doesnt have closers, if a game is close late, i automatically just start thinking we lose ..and been right so far

we blowout win or we lose

Memphis has won some close games, late. One over Ole Miss. Beat NC State by 5 in MSG. Won by 4 over Tennessee, up there. Came back from 20 down at UAB to win by 8.

(12-22-2019 01:30 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(12-21-2019 05:26 PM)pesik Wrote:  interesting, between yesterday & today we had 6 extremely close games and lost all of them... a lot of those were must wins

this league doesnt have closers, if a game is close late, i automatically just start thinking we lose ..and been right so far

we blowout win or we lose

Memphis has won some close games, late. One over Ole Miss. Beat NC State by 5 in MSG. Won by 4 over Tennessee, up there. Came back from 20 down at UAB to win by 8.

The league outside the Top 2 (Memphis and Wichita) doesn't have closers

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I saw that the Cincy-Iowa attendance was a little less than 7k in Chicago.

What is the background why the game was played there, and is there another game next year?

What were the fan %s?

memphis was up 8 on ole miss with 40secs left vs ole miss...and almost lost...not sure how you can use that game as an example of closer...memphis should have won by double digits ..nc state wasnt a close game either...

by closer, i mean games were both teams are going back and forth and you dont know who will win going into the last few minutes...memphis had full control of nc state and ole miss, those were "not to blow the lead games"..

wichita/oklahoma, memphis/Tennessee technically count ...but the larger context of my post was with offense; both of those both teams struggled to score FGs, both games wichita and memphis only had like 1 fg the last 3 minutes ...but held on freethrows the last few seconds..
there has been a lack of clutch shots in the aac all year...including memphis and wichita

(12-22-2019 02:34 PM)pesik Wrote:  memphis was up 8 on ole miss with 40secs left vs ole miss...and almost lost...not sure how you can use that game as an example of closer...memphis should have won by double digits ..nc state wasnt a close game either...

by closer, i mean games were both teams are going back and forth and you dont know who will win going into the last few minutes...memphis had full control of nc state and ole miss, those were "not to blow the lead games"..

wichita/oklahoma, memphis/Tennessee technically count ...but the larger context of my post was with offense; both of those both teams struggled to score FGs, both games wichita and memphis only had like 1 fg the last 3 minutes ...but held on freethrows the last few seconds..
there has been a lack of clutch shots in the aac all year...including memphis and wichita

So you mean lack of last second shots... Not closers.

Watch Sherfield against OU and VCU... That's closing even if it wasn't in the last minute...

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(12-22-2019 12:24 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-22-2019 01:54 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  14-4, we are in without a doubt. 13-5 we are sweating a bit. 12-6 lands us squarely on the bubble.

People overestimate the resumes of the real bubble teams this time of year. Its pretty bleak in early March. Our record is poor, but we’ll also have a Top 25 OOC SoS it appears.

OT: Huge commitment tonight for UC landing Tari Eason tonight.

Do you think Cincy is capable of going 14-4 or 13-5?

Their non-con display certainly casts a lot of doubt out there.

I'm not saying they can't do it, but based on what I've seen so far, it's gonna be an uphill battle.

The answer to that question depends entirely on Jarron Cumberland, in my opinion. This teams potential with him playing at a high level is very high. With him playing how he is now, we look more like that 10-8 to 12-6 range. I don’t think this team is bad as currently construed, but there has certainly been a drop off this year compared to our usual standard.

If we can somehow make the tourney, I think we’d be dangerous. But we have a lot of work to do to get there.

the lack on anything whats so every from harvey is also surprising..he is the 3rd highest ranked recruit in the league...he is the only top 200 recruit in the aac that has shown absolutely nothing

houston has changed our dynamic... i cant wait till tomorrow to see how this dynamic vs a decent team

1st few games of thew season:

starting PG: Jarreau --elite handles/passer- cant shoot at all
back up PG: sasser- best shooter on the team (freshmen)

starting SG/SG: Grimes and Hinton - great defender/rebounder/passer-not great shooters
backup SG: Mills- best scorer on team- worst defender/rebounder (freshman)--was receiving least minutes among guards

(no true wings on roster)

we struggled really really bad vs zone teams (really poor shooting line up)...we'd get down huge, then put mills in late, and have him take every shoot to try and get us back in it..and actually came close every time

the new dynamic for the last 2.5 games:

PG: Grimes
back up PG: Jarreau

starting SG/SG: Mills and Hinton
backup SG: Sasser

we havent played any zone teams since, but we seem to be scoring way more per game....individual- grimes/sasser production has drastically decreased, mills drastically improved ..dejon despite benching has improved production and our 5

Possible development for WSU and Houston...

South Carolina up 9 AT Virginia with 4 to go

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(12-22-2019 04:47 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  Possible development for WSU and Houston...

South Carolina up 9 AT Virginia with 4 to go

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South Carolina pulls it off. Should really bump up their NET rankings

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(12-22-2019 04:25 PM)pesik Wrote:  houston has changed our dynamic... i cant wait till tomorrow to see how this dynamic vs a decent team

1st few games of thew season:

starting PG: Jarreau --elite handles/passer- cant shoot at all
back up PG: sasser- best shooter on the team (freshmen)

starting SG/SG: Grimes and Hinton - great defender/rebounder/passer-not great shooters
backup SG: Mills- best scorer on team- worst defender/rebounder (freshman)--was receiving least minutes among guards

(no true wings on roster)

we struggled really really bad vs zone teams (really poor shooting line up)...we'd get down huge, then put mills in late, and have him take every shoot to try and get us back in it..and actually came close every time

the new dynamic for the last 2.5 games:

PG: Grimes
back up PG: Jarreau

starting SG/SG: Mills and Hinton
backup SG: Sasser

we havent played any zone teams since, but we seem to be scoring way more per game....individual- grimes/sasser production has drastically decreased, mills drastically improved ..dejon despite benching has improved production and our 5

The primary cause of Houston’s latest “dynamism” pertains to quality of opponent. Portland was beat by Jackson St last week. UTEP’s wins were built on a very soft schedule. Houston lost to OK St. WSU overwhelmed the Cowboys by 19 points.

(12-22-2019 05:11 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  [quote='pesik' pid='16563735' dateline='1577049959']
houston has changed our dynamic... i cant wait till tomorrow to see how this dynamic vs a decent team

1st few games of thew season:

starting PG: Jarreau --elite handles/passer- cant shoot at all
back up PG: sasser- best shooter on the team (freshmen)

starting SG/SG: Grimes and Hinton - great defender/rebounder/passer-not great shooters
backup SG: Mills- best scorer on team- worst defender/rebounder (freshman)--was receiving least minutes among guards

(no true wings on roster)

we struggled really really bad vs zone teams (really poor shooting line up)...we'd get down huge, then put mills in late, and have him take every shoot to try and get us back in it..and actually came close every time

the new dynamic for the last 2.5 games:

PG: Grimes
back up PG: Jarreau

starting SG/SG: Mills and Hinton
backup SG: Sasser

we havent played any zone teams since, but we seem to be scoring way more per game....individual- grimes/sasser production has drastically decreased, mills drastically improved ..dejon despite benching has improved production and our 5

The primary cause of Houston’s latest “dynamism” pertains to quality of opponent. Portland was beat by Jackson St last week. UTEP’s wins were built on a very soft schedule. Houston lost to OK St. WSU overwhelmed the Cowboys by 19 points.
[/quote

Blah Blah Blah......I don’t care who we played, were getting better. You being a Memphis fan isn’t used to Team building, your used to team having. We are going to be tough late in the season. So we will see..

(12-22-2019 05:11 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  [quote='pesik' pid='16563735' dateline='1577049959']
houston has changed our dynamic... i cant wait till tomorrow to see how this dynamic vs a decent team

1st few games of thew season:

starting PG: Jarreau --elite handles/passer- cant shoot at all
back up PG: sasser- best shooter on the team (freshmen)

starting SG/SG: Grimes and Hinton - great defender/rebounder/passer-not great shooters
backup SG: Mills- best scorer on team- worst defender/rebounder (freshman)--was receiving least minutes among guards

(no true wings on roster)

we struggled really really bad vs zone teams (really poor shooting line up)...we'd get down huge, then put mills in late, and have him take every shoot to try and get us back in it..and actually came close every time

the new dynamic for the last 2.5 games:

PG: Grimes
back up PG: Jarreau

starting SG/SG: Mills and Hinton
backup SG: Sasser

we havent played any zone teams since, but we seem to be scoring way more per game....individual- grimes/sasser production has drastically decreased, mills drastically improved ..dejon despite benching has improved production and our 5

The primary cause of Houston’s latest “dynamism” pertains to quality of opponent. Portland was beat by Jackson St last week. UTEP’s wins were built on a very soft schedule. Houston lost to OK St. WSU overwhelmed the Cowboys by 19 points.
[/quote

Blah Blah Blah......I don’t care who we played, were getting better. You being a Memphis fan isn’t used to Team building, your used to team having. We are going to be tough late in the season. So we will see..