i'm not saying the CAA and Big sky don't get a lot of love, but the MVC gets way more than it really deserves all because of NDSU.

but the rest of the league is consistently overrated due to the Bizon.

Find a good OOC win here. One that really makes you think, "wow. the MVC is elite outside the Bizon"

https://valley-football.org/calendar.aspx?path=football

best i can find is probably So Illinois beating TN Martin. Is anyone shaking in their boots if they played SoIllinois in the playoffs?

NoIowa lost its big test to Weber and barely got by Idaho St.
Yea, MVC teams had a couple close losses to Minnesota and Iowa St. But they were still defeats. the CAA had lots of close FBS losses as well and I'm sure BigsKy teams did too.

NDSU deserves all the respect in the world. The best until beaten and proven otherwise.

but the rest of the MVC is no different than teams in the CAA or Big Sky and should not be feared or looked at favorably just because they share a conferences with the Bizon.

Finally, i have watched these teams this year....Illinois St, No Iowa, SDSU, So Illinois....ESPN+ is a bargain, did I tell you guys that?.....i'm not seeing anything that makes me worried. Good solid, competitive teams. But no different than UNH, Nova, Towson, Stony, etc.

(11-11-2019 04:49 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  i'm not saying the CAA and Big sky don't get a lot of love, but the MVC gets way more than it really deserves all because of NDSU.

but the rest of the league is consistently overrated due to the Bizon.

Find a good OOC win here. One that really makes you think, "wow. the MVC is elite outside the Bizon"

https://valley-football.org/calendar.aspx?path=football

best i can find is probably So Illinois beating TN Martin. Is anyone shaking in their boots if they played SoIllinois in the playoffs?

NoIowa lost its big test to Weber and barely got by Idaho St.
Yea, MVC teams had a couple close losses to Minnesota and Iowa St. But they were still defeats. the CAA had lots of close FBS losses as well and I'm sure BigsKy teams did too.

NDSU deserves all the respect in the world. The best until beaten and proven otherwise.

but the rest of the MVC is no different than teams in the CAA or Big Sky and should not be feared or looked at favorably just because they share a conferences with the Bizon.

Finally, i have watched these teams this year....Illinois St, No Iowa, SDSU, So Illinois....ESPN+ is a bargain, did I tell you guys that?.....i'm not seeing anything that makes me worried. Good solid, competitive teams. But no different than UNH, Nova, Towson, Stony, etc.

UNI's first game of the season was pretty impressive.

I think most would say it was more impressive than JMU's first game.

(11-11-2019 04:57 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 04:49 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  i'm not saying the CAA and Big sky don't get a lot of love, but the MVC gets way more than it really deserves all because of NDSU.

but the rest of the league is consistently overrated due to the Bizon.

Find a good OOC win here. One that really makes you think, "wow. the MVC is elite outside the Bizon"

https://valley-football.org/calendar.aspx?path=football

best i can find is probably So Illinois beating TN Martin. Is anyone shaking in their boots if they played SoIllinois in the playoffs?

NoIowa lost its big test to Weber and barely got by Idaho St.
Yea, MVC teams had a couple close losses to Minnesota and Iowa St. But they were still defeats. the CAA had lots of close FBS losses as well and I'm sure BigsKy teams did too.

NDSU deserves all the respect in the world. The best until beaten and proven otherwise.

but the rest of the MVC is no different than teams in the CAA or Big Sky and should not be feared or looked at favorably just because they share a conferences with the Bizon.

Finally, i have watched these teams this year....Illinois St, No Iowa, SDSU, So Illinois....ESPN+ is a bargain, did I tell you guys that?.....i'm not seeing anything that makes me worried. Good solid, competitive teams. But no different than UNH, Nova, Towson, Stony, etc.

UNI's first game of the season was pretty impressive.

I think most would say it was more impressive than JMU's first game.

I am a CAA guy and I my one bone to pick, is the undeserved 'love' UNH gets year-in/year-out and the benefit of the doubt always given by selection committee. If they get in this year it is a pity party for their coach.

(11-11-2019 05:01 PM)ShadyP Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 04:57 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 04:49 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  i'm not saying the CAA and Big sky don't get a lot of love, but the MVC gets way more than it really deserves all because of NDSU.

but the rest of the league is consistently overrated due to the Bizon.

Find a good OOC win here. One that really makes you think, "wow. the MVC is elite outside the Bizon"

https://valley-football.org/calendar.aspx?path=football

best i can find is probably So Illinois beating TN Martin. Is anyone shaking in their boots if they played SoIllinois in the playoffs?

NoIowa lost its big test to Weber and barely got by Idaho St.
Yea, MVC teams had a couple close losses to Minnesota and Iowa St. But they were still defeats. the CAA had lots of close FBS losses as well and I'm sure BigsKy teams did too.

NDSU deserves all the respect in the world. The best until beaten and proven otherwise.

but the rest of the MVC is no different than teams in the CAA or Big Sky and should not be feared or looked at favorably just because they share a conferences with the Bizon.

Finally, i have watched these teams this year....Illinois St, No Iowa, SDSU, So Illinois....ESPN+ is a bargain, did I tell you guys that?.....i'm not seeing anything that makes me worried. Good solid, competitive teams. But no different than UNH, Nova, Towson, Stony, etc.

UNI's first game of the season was pretty impressive.

I think most would say it was more impressive than JMU's first game.

I am a CAA guy and I my one bone to pick, is the undeserved 'love' UNH gets year-in/year-out and the benefit of the doubt always given by selection committee. If they get in this year it is a pity party for their coach.

If they were a 10 seed last week, I'd have to think they will have to lose another one not to get an invite.

(11-11-2019 05:01 PM)ShadyP Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 04:57 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 04:49 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  i'm not saying the CAA and Big sky don't get a lot of love, but the MVC gets way more than it really deserves all because of NDSU.

but the rest of the league is consistently overrated due to the Bizon.

Find a good OOC win here. One that really makes you think, "wow. the MVC is elite outside the Bizon"

https://valley-football.org/calendar.aspx?path=football

best i can find is probably So Illinois beating TN Martin. Is anyone shaking in their boots if they played SoIllinois in the playoffs?

NoIowa lost its big test to Weber and barely got by Idaho St.
Yea, MVC teams had a couple close losses to Minnesota and Iowa St. But they were still defeats. the CAA had lots of close FBS losses as well and I'm sure BigsKy teams did too.

NDSU deserves all the respect in the world. The best until beaten and proven otherwise.

but the rest of the MVC is no different than teams in the CAA or Big Sky and should not be feared or looked at favorably just because they share a conferences with the Bizon.

Finally, i have watched these teams this year....Illinois St, No Iowa, SDSU, So Illinois....ESPN+ is a bargain, did I tell you guys that?.....i'm not seeing anything that makes me worried. Good solid, competitive teams. But no different than UNH, Nova, Towson, Stony, etc.

UNI's first game of the season was pretty impressive.

I think most would say it was more impressive than JMU's first game.

I am a CAA guy and I my one bone to pick, is the undeserved 'love' UNH gets year-in/year-out and the benefit of the doubt always given by selection committee. If they get in this year it is a pity party for their coach.

They were a bubble team in 2017, the last year their AD was on the committee. BUT they had two playoff wins before losing to SDSU, so hard to say they didn't belong in the bracket. We looked worse last year with our Colgate loss.

I think UNH has a case to be in this year IF they win out. If they drop another game, they should be out.

Lafayette looks positioned to win the Patriot League autobid at 5-7 overall, if they can get past Lehigh (4-5) and Colgate (3-8). Crazy.

Have we ever had LOSING record teams (below .500) in the bracket before? More evidence 24 teams is really too many.

JMU vs NDSU (neutral field):
Massey... NDSU -10
Sagarin... NDSU -4.5

Conference Ratings Sagarin Central Mean* - although these 3 conferences finish in the same order in all three of his conference rating metrics (Central Mean, Simple Average, and Win50%)
MVFC 51.79
Big Sky 50.11
CAA 48.87

*The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.

(11-11-2019 07:01 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  JMU vs NDSU (neutral field):
Massey... NDSU -10
Sagarin... NDSU -4.5

Conference Ratings Sagarin Central Mean* - although these 3 conferences finish in the same order in all three of his conference rating metrics (Central Mean, Simple Average, and Win50%)
MVFC 51.79
Big Sky 50.11
CAA 48.87

*The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.

Looking back to 2014 and JMU’s win over NDSU at their place and ultimately winning the NC, didn’t Massey and Sagarin continue to rate NDSU over JMU? Just saying...

Look up Bill Connelly of espn on twitter and see his computer ratings system for fcs.

He has the caa far ahead of every other league this year as strongest in fcs.

(11-11-2019 07:33 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 07:01 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  JMU vs NDSU (neutral field):
Massey... NDSU -10
Sagarin... NDSU -4.5

Conference Ratings Sagarin Central Mean* - although these 3 conferences finish in the same order in all three of his conference rating metrics (Central Mean, Simple Average, and Win50%)
MVFC 51.79
Big Sky 50.11
CAA 48.87

*The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.

Looking back to 2014 and JMU’s win over NDSU at their place and ultimately winning the NC, didn’t Massey and Sagarin continue to rate NDSU over JMU? Just saying...

Can make the data say whatever you want it to say when you apply metrics to a sample size of 1.

(p.s. 2014?)

(11-11-2019 08:36 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  Look up Bill Connelly of espn on twitter and see his computer ratings system for fcs.

He has the caa far ahead of every other league this year as strongest in fcs.

I saw that. Interesting. I also saw the big spreadsheet of math he uses, and while I'd love to learn it, I got a headache looking, so I'll have to come back later to try to figure it out.

(11-11-2019 08:38 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 07:33 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 07:01 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  JMU vs NDSU (neutral field):
Massey... NDSU -10
Sagarin... NDSU -4.5

Conference Ratings Sagarin Central Mean* - although these 3 conferences finish in the same order in all three of his conference rating metrics (Central Mean, Simple Average, and Win50%)
MVFC 51.79
Big Sky 50.11
CAA 48.87

*The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.

Looking back to 2014 and JMU’s win over NDSU at their place and ultimately winning the NC, didn’t Massey and Sagarin continue to rate NDSU over JMU? Just saying...

Can make the data say whatever you want it to say when you apply metrics to a sample size of 1.

(p.s. 2014?)

Oops. Mind fart. Should have written 2016.

Yes, the “data” on Massey and Sagarin that builds in a starting bias favoring NDSU (and that benefits their conference mates) is obvious when at season’s end NDSU doesn’t land up on top. Hopefully JMU exposes this sham again this year.

(11-11-2019 07:33 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 07:01 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  JMU vs NDSU (neutral field):
Massey... NDSU -10
Sagarin... NDSU -4.5

Conference Ratings Sagarin Central Mean* - although these 3 conferences finish in the same order in all three of his conference rating metrics (Central Mean, Simple Average, and Win50%)
MVFC 51.79
Big Sky 50.11
CAA 48.87

*The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.

Looking back to 2014 and JMU’s win over NDSU at their place and ultimately winning the NC, didn’t Massey and Sagarin continue to rate NDSU over JMU? Just saying...

ODU beat VA Tech last year and continued to rate VA Tech way over ODU. It's called an upset. Every game will not match up with the overall body of work.

(11-12-2019 06:14 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 07:33 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 07:01 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  JMU vs NDSU (neutral field):
Massey... NDSU -10
Sagarin... NDSU -4.5

Conference Ratings Sagarin Central Mean* - although these 3 conferences finish in the same order in all three of his conference rating metrics (Central Mean, Simple Average, and Win50%)
MVFC 51.79
Big Sky 50.11
CAA 48.87

*The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.

Looking back to 2014 and JMU’s win over NDSU at their place and ultimately winning the NC, didn’t Massey and Sagarin continue to rate NDSU over JMU? Just saying...

ODU beat VA Tech last year and continued to rate VA Tech way over ODU. It's called an upset. Every game will not match up with the overall body of work.

An “upset” may account for some part of the initial rating bias, but in a playoff system, and one where JMU defeated a higher ranked opponent at their home and in a subsequent game defeated another highly ranked team from the higher-ranked conference (at a neutral site) it becomes obvious the metrics or data being used to support the higher ranked team(s) at season’s end are just plain wrong and skewed with an inherent bias.

(11-11-2019 04:44 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 04:31 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(11-11-2019 04:29 PM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  NDSU looks great but the only game they were challenged in they were playing against a backup QB. It'll be interesting to see if they ever go down in the early rounds of the playoffs if they can bounce back.

Not likely at home.

I so much want to see them have to hit the road in the playoffs.

Would take a "christmas miracle" this year. Only Southern Illinois has a snowballs chance, and they lost 28-10 to SDSU. Even if they lose that game, not sure if they drop below a 2 seed.

If Montana takes down Weber, maybe only Montana would have a strong argument. Montana's AD is on the committee, so that could get interesting, even though they formally exit the room for the discussion of their own team.

I think its about 1000-1 odds bizon are home till Frisco.

Where does this Bison on the road thought come from? They've lost maybe 10 games in the past decade. Id be great to see them away from the dome but other than Montana or Harrisonburg theres not a fanbase in the FCS that would be able to rattle them.

I will say that this years NDSU team has committed a ton of penalties. Upwards of 100 yards worth a game. I think this shows a lack of discipline that hasnt always been the case there. The best defense they have played was SDSU and they needed a 70 yard run on 4th and 1 to win. The best offense they have played was also SDSU and before Gibbs got hurt, SDSU was moving the ball at will against them.

On NDSU's own message boards they think the interior Dline is a weakness for them. Seems to fit in well with our run game. They have said the team speed on defense isnt up to what it has been and depth at corner could be an issue. They also havent played a team with 2 legitimate #1 receivers like polk and stapleton. There are good matchups across the board for JMU so lets just take care of business and hope they do the same and settle this in Frisco

The CAA only has one team in the top 15

(11-12-2019 07:50 AM)Dukeman2 Wrote:  The CAA only has one team in the top 15

Yeah, that's what makes this season so weird. If that's true, and you can certainly make that argument, how many are in the 16-30 range? I guess it's not all of the rest of them. But you might be able to make that argument. It's certainly most of them.

Some interesting power ratings that are using this season's numbers and no slot voting.

https://twitter.com/philsteele042/status...04288?s=20

Phil Steele
@philsteele042
·
Oct 31
My Avg Game Grades for FCS
1 James Madison 84.96
2 North Dakota St 83.7
3 Sacramento St 82.6
4 South Dakota St 78.8
5 Montana 78.6
6 Northern Iowa 75.1
7 Weber St 73.5
8 SE Louisiana 72.7
9 Southern Illinois 71.9
10 N Carolina A&T 71.7
11 Furman 71.5
12 Villanova 71.1

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...20421?s=20
Bill Connelly
@ESPN_BillC
·
14h
Yeah, it's pretty far ahead of everyone else (and the MVC's worse than normal).

FCS Conference Rankings by Avg SP+:
1 CAA (10.8)
2 MVC (6.9)
3 Big Sky (6.7)
4 Ivy (6.6)
5 OVC (3.0)

(6-13: S'land, Southern, SWAC, Patriot, Big South, MEAC, NEC, Pioneer)

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...95328?s=20

(11-11-2019 05:31 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Lafayette looks positioned to win the Patriot League autobid at 5-7 overall, if they can get past Lehigh (4-5) and Colgate (3-8). Crazy.

Have we ever had LOSING record teams (below .500) in the bracket before? More evidence 24 teams is really too many.

Don't disagree 24 is too many, but as long as there are autobids then you could have a losing record team in the field. If they are selecting losing teams as at large then you'd have a better point.

(11-12-2019 09:58 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  Some interesting power ratings that are using this season's numbers and no slot voting.

https://twitter.com/philsteele042/status...04288?s=20

Phil Steele
@philsteele042
·
Oct 31
My Avg Game Grades for FCS
1 James Madison 84.96
2 North Dakota St 83.7
3 Sacramento St 82.6
4 South Dakota St 78.8
5 Montana 78.6
6 Northern Iowa 75.1
7 Weber St 73.5
8 SE Louisiana 72.7
9 Southern Illinois 71.9
10 N Carolina A&T 71.7
11 Furman 71.5
12 Villanova 71.1

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...20421?s=20
Bill Connelly
@ESPN_BillC
·
14h
Yeah, it's pretty far ahead of everyone else (and the MVC's worse than normal).

FCS Conference Rankings by Avg SP+:
1 CAA (10.8)
2 MVC (6.9)
3 Big Sky (6.7)
4 Ivy (6.6)
5 OVC (3.0)

(6-13: S'land, Southern, SWAC, Patriot, Big South, MEAC, NEC, Pioneer)

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...95328?s=20

Not sure about Steele's love for Sac St. They are a very good team, but Weber went into their house and dominated them. Combine that w/ similar resumes and I find their respective positions puzzling.