(08-29-2019 02:46 AM)Attackcoog Wrote: (08-28-2019 09:59 PM)Kaplony Wrote: (08-28-2019 09:40 PM)Stay Cool Wrote: (08-28-2019 09:35 PM)Kaplony Wrote: (08-28-2019 09:23 PM)Stay Cool Wrote: But, but, how DARE they imply the ragtag G5 can attend the beauty pageant!
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When a G5 champion earns it they'll get a bid. Houston likely would have had they not stepped on their own crank in 2016.
That's the thing though, it likely will never be seen as "earned" while the good ol boys club still calls the shots
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Yet I provided a perfect example of how a G5 program could have earned a bid. Had Houston not stepped on their own crank multiple times in 2016 they would have made it. Their SOS was solid enough that had they ran the table they would have been included.
People say that all the time--and then talk about how the UCF 2017 undefeated season was simply accomplished against too weak a schedule to warrant inclusion in the CFP. The reality? The UCF 2017 schedule actually had a higher SOS than the Houston 2016 schedule. I can guarantee you that had Houston gone undefeated---the committee would have simply done their patented somber head shake when asked about Houston and explained how much they respected the teams accomplishments---but the #76 SOS simply provided too weak a resume to warrant inclusion. Keep in mind---thats exactly what the Committee said about UCF's #72 ranked SOS in 2017 (which was 4 slots stronger than the SOS of the 2016 Houston schedule). Mark my words---barring some sort of massive reform in the way the Committee is structured----there will never ever be a G5 in the CFP during the 12 years of the current system.
There's one critical factor that IMO makes Kaplony right and you wrong about Houston 2016: When it comes to SOS, particularly for a G5 team, while the overall value is important, what's equally important are the best teams that you played.
Because with a G5 team with a gaudy record achieved against a soft schedule, the unanswered question is "could they have posted that record if they had to play some top teams"? Because that's typically who a G5 hasn't proved themselves against: If it comes down to 12-0 Alabama vs 12-0 Memphis or 12-0 North Texas, what is the difference? Both teams beat some cupcakes. Both teams also beat some decent teams, teams ranked between like 25 and 50. What Alabama probably did and Memphis or North Texas didn't was beat a couple TOP teams. Alabama probably beat a #5 Georgia or a #7 LSU. Memphis didn't play anyone like that, so that's the unanswered issue.
So it's better to beat three teams ranked 80, 90, and 5 than teams ranked 50, 50, 50. The latter set represents a tougher average/overall SOS, but provided no tests against top-level competition, the former did.
In 2016, Houston did just that. They happened to play Oklahoma and Louisville, teams that finished #7 and #13 in the final CFP rankings and beat both soundly. So I think there's little doubt that had they run the table, they would have made the top 4, instead of Washington. Houston actually beat a P5 champion, which is what the committee and the rest of us want to see.
In contrast, in 2017, UCF did not have those kinds of skins on the wall. While their overall SOS was slightly better than Houston's in 2016, they had not proven themselves against any national P5 powers. The only team they beat that finished in the final CFP rankings was #20 Memphis, and they did so unconvincingly, winning at home in double overtime while giving up like 700 yards or something. IIRC, the only other team they played that was ranked in the CFP at any time that year was USF, and again it was unconvincing - very close win at home while giving up a thousand yards or something. So not only did UCF not play any playoff contenders, the weakly-ranked teams they did play they beat by the skin of their teeth **.
Houston not just beat the #7 and #13 teams, they did so convincingly.
Nothing about UCF's 2017 season suggested that they could hang with other top 4 quality teams in the playoffs. In contrast, Houston's results would have.
To me, that is what's most important about their respective schedules, not the overall SOS.
** One could argue that UCF was hampered because anti-G5 bias meant that Memphis and USF were themselves under-rated. But the bowl results don't support that - Memphis lost their bowl game played at home to a 7-5 Iowa State team, while USF barely beat a 6-6 Texas Tech team in their bowl game.