pono
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Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
I know some of you would rather argue about mythical possible reconfigurations of the MAC, but for those want to talk MAC football...
Week 1-My take.
Big Game
Toledo at Kentucky Sat 8/31 Noon. On paper looks a little like Toledo Arkansas opener a few years back that resulted in a Toledo upset. Kentucky is likely a middle of the pack SEC team playing a lot of younger guys and replacing its big playmakers. they play a style that tend toward closer lower scoring games and don't have quite the home field advantage of some other SEC schools. Rockets bring in a veteran team with a good line a couple of proven running backs and a very fast QB. Kentucky is big athletic and talented in the trenches on d, but the rockets might be able to execute enough ball control offense to keep the defense fairly fresh and contain a Kentucky offense with some talent but just 1 skill position guy in Phil Steele's Al-SEC 1st 2nd 3rd 4th teams. Best shot for a big time MAC win week 1
- early prediction UT 24 Kentucky 22
Sleeper Game
EMU at Coastal Carolina won't be on the highlights but it's an interesting and competitive matchup between 2 teams with funny turf and rags to not quite riches but middle G5 class stories. neither team is highly talented so it will be a game of execution and fundamentals between stable experienced teams and probably enjoyable to watch. EMU's superior defense should squeek it out
-early prediction EMU 20 Coastal 16
Fun Loss
last year Kent St made road games against middling SEC and Big10 teams interesting, largely on their tough QB and coaching energy and motivation. this year they should make a big stride in the improvement. the players are still smallish and not overly talented but there's been some solid recruiting, development and energy and the 2nd year of a rebuilding effort is usually when guys get comfortable. kent has some interesting options at rb and the passing game has had a year and an offseason to figure out ways to be effective. special teams look good and the flashes can play ball control football behind woody barrett. their non conf sched is brutal and they may slump as the first half of the season wears on. so, catch them early and wish them health. arizona st is closer to a penn state (beat kent by 53 LY) than an illinois (kent should have beat LY). Arizona St's running game, talent level and crowd is gonna win the game. but i got a hunch it will be a respectable fun watch.
early prediction Arizona St. 38 Kent St 25
There's a scenario where...
Miami wins at Iowa. MAC teams have won their before. Miami has a huge question mark at QB and no obvious playmakers running the ball. so, even though they are pretty solid otherwise, it looks like the early season will be about figuring some things out on offense and iowa is too good to beat figuring it out. however, if miami has an unexpectedly good young qb in the making and the offense comes out in mid season form and iowa's rebuilding defense needs a few games to figure it out there's an outside chance of a close game.
early prediction Iowa 34 Miami 16
Best "Home" Crowd
Ball St and Indiana go neutral in Indy in what is usually an intense game that Ball St has won 3 of the past 5 times. Indiana is solid offensively and Ball St got sucker punched by their talented qb transferring out and will likely be outplayed at QB and RB. However, if Ball St can execute well on offense Indiana's defense is not fearsome and they could hang around and get some momentum from a mixed crowd in a dome.
early prediction: Indiana 38 Ball St 24
Just when you think... Akron sucks... they pull a big upset (last 5 yrs at Pitt, at marshall, at NW and only 1 was close). with a new staff and a rebuilt defense winning on the road in the big10 seems unlikely coming off a 4-8 season with plenty of holes to fill. Illinois is nominally Big10 until proven otherwise so Akron with some talent and experience in the passing game might make it interesting
early prediction: illinois 41- Akron 24
plus 6 MAC home games against FCS: I'd expect WMU, OHIO, CMU, BG, Buffalo, NIU to all win. Probably the most interesting will be the in-state small kine rivalry game NIU-IL St. NIU will be trying to stay pretty good with a new coaching staff transitioning in. Perhaps, they will be better. There's better competition at the offensive skill groups and the last staff wasn't exactly offensive coaching wizards. Will the d drop off? Illinois st is a good FCS team and this game is circled on their schedule. Does CMU bounce back or is it a full rebuild? that's a storyline. OU, WMU and Buffalo are stronger MAC teams playing mediocre FCS programs and should roll. BG is rebuilding and nothing is guaranteed for them. Their tiff with Morgan St might be competitive.
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2019 02:23 AM by pono.)
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07-29-2019 02:17 AM |
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thanksjim
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
So excited just to see this thread!
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07-29-2019 08:20 AM |
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bobcat_backer
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
(07-29-2019 08:20 AM)thanksjim Wrote: So excited just to see this thread!
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07-29-2019 08:43 AM |
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JHVMU19
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
Nice post!
I’m ready for the season to start and ready to see some MAC OOC game upsets like in 2003.
Bring on the MACtion!
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07-29-2019 01:23 PM |
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niu79
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
The NIU-ISU game will be interesting. Used to be an annual game between us until separated by divisions (FBS/FCS) in the early 80's. Will be the largest home crowd of the year, and a great atmosphere to open the season.
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2019 02:39 PM by niu79.)
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07-29-2019 02:38 PM |
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ColinApocalypse
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
(07-29-2019 08:20 AM)thanksjim Wrote: So excited just to see this thread!
This! Lol
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07-29-2019 03:17 PM |
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UofToledoFans
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
Kentucky 42- UT 28
I predicted a rare loss in 2015 to Arkansas as well and by doing so I was pleasantly surprised. The bus ride past the sad hogs fans during the Brad Paisley concert was priceless. Lexington will be rocking with about 1,500 Toledo fans. The big questions are does Toledo have a defense? And Will Kentucky reload?
Iowa 49- Miami 20
I think Iowa can win the Big Ten West...
EMU 31- CCU 17
EMU is a sleeper and need this win to get amped for Kentucky the following week. Keep Glass healthy and EMU is winning 7+
ASU 31- KSU 20
I think Kent is a year away, but will make this competitive. ASUs run game will be awesome though, so Kent needs to hold their own in the trenches.
Indiana 17- Ball State 9
I don't know if either team will be all that impressive in 2019. Plitt made lots of bad mental decisions in his games last season, but he has a good arm. I think both teams will turn it over a lot which leads to a funky low scoring game.
Illinois 52- Akron 13
Akron will finish last behind BG this year...
We win all FCS games but BG squeeks it out.
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07-29-2019 03:55 PM |
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pono
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
(07-29-2019 03:55 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Kentucky 42- UT 28
I predicted a rare loss in 2015 to Arkansas as well and by doing so I was pleasantly surprised. The bus ride past the sad hogs fans during the Brad Paisley concert was priceless. Lexington will be rocking with about 1,500 Toledo fans. The big questions are does Toledo have a defense? And Will Kentucky reload?
Iowa 49- Miami 20
I think Iowa can win the Big Ten West...
EMU 31- CCU 17
EMU is a sleeper and need this win to get amped for Kentucky the following week. Keep Glass healthy and EMU is winning 7+
ASU 31- KSU 20
I think Kent is a year away, but will make this competitive. ASUs run game will be awesome though, so Kent needs to hold their own in the trenches.
Indiana 17- Ball State 9
I don't know if either team will be all that impressive in 2019. Plitt made lots of bad mental decisions in his games last season, but he has a good arm. I think both teams will turn it over a lot which leads to a funky low scoring game.
Illinois 52- Akron 13
Akron will finish last behind BG this year...
We win all FCS games but BG squeeks it out.
kentucky only broke 35 pts once vs FBS last season and they lost their offensive star and most of their top skill position guys. while toledo's defense is a question mark i doubt Kentucky puts up 42.
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07-31-2019 02:41 AM |
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UofToledoFans
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
(07-31-2019 02:41 AM)pono Wrote: (07-29-2019 03:55 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Kentucky 42- UT 28
I predicted a rare loss in 2015 to Arkansas as well and by doing so I was pleasantly surprised. The bus ride past the sad hogs fans during the Brad Paisley concert was priceless. Lexington will be rocking with about 1,500 Toledo fans. The big questions are does Toledo have a defense? And Will Kentucky reload?
Iowa 49- Miami 20
I think Iowa can win the Big Ten West...
EMU 31- CCU 17
EMU is a sleeper and need this win to get amped for Kentucky the following week. Keep Glass healthy and EMU is winning 7+
ASU 31- KSU 20
I think Kent is a year away, but will make this competitive. ASUs run game will be awesome though, so Kent needs to hold their own in the trenches.
Indiana 17- Ball State 9
I don't know if either team will be all that impressive in 2019. Plitt made lots of bad mental decisions in his games last season, but he has a good arm. I think both teams will turn it over a lot which leads to a funky low scoring game.
Illinois 52- Akron 13
Akron will finish last behind BG this year...
We win all FCS games but BG squeeks it out.
kentucky only broke 35 pts once vs FBS last season and they lost their offensive star and most of their top skill position guys. while toledo's defense is a question mark i doubt Kentucky puts up 42.
Miami did it and their offense was a joke without a QB until they played us. If we go 3 and out a few times, their offense will just have too many opportunities to score. Fresno State laid off the gas last season and could have scored in the 50s easy. They are the only team we played in 2018 with a comparable D to Kentucky. FSUs D was ranked 3rd, Kentucky's ranked 6th.
As a Toledo fan I am used to scoring so quickly that our D gives up gaudy numbers. What if instead of scoring in 3 plays, we are punting after 3 plays? I HOPE we get in a run the ball slow paced game, but Arkansas in 2015 only has happened to us so many times in the past decade... I won't hold my breath. By the way Arkansas threw for over 400 yards but couldn't score TDs in 5 redzone tries.
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07-31-2019 03:55 AM |
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TheWoodenNickle
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Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
I wouldn't be surprised to see either UT or EMU beat Kentucky. EMU has the better defense and only lost 24-20 to them in 2017...but UT gets them in the opener before they can works the kinks out.
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07-31-2019 07:26 PM |
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cosine4
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
Nice write up!
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08-01-2019 07:49 AM |
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Rocket_Fanatic
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
Toledo can beat Kentucky. Historically, we play well in September
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08-02-2019 11:37 AM |
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Bronco'14
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
I don't think it's out of the question for a good game between Akron and Illinois. Illinois is trash, would likely finish middle-of-the-pack in the MAC.
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08-02-2019 10:52 PM |
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pono
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
i don't know if illinois is as trashy as they were a few years back but then again i have no faith in the myth they are again getting better. they would certainly have the talent to be a contender in the mac. are playing at home. and akron is rebuilding with a new staff after years of patchwork recruiting. akron does have a pretty talented experienced qb who will try to go deep on illinois, so it could be fun, but i think illinois wins by 2 or 3 tds.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2019 04:45 AM by pono.)
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08-03-2019 04:42 AM |
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Motown Bronco
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
(07-29-2019 03:55 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Illinois 52- Akron 13
Akron will finish last behind BG this year...
I'm not sure Illinois could put up 52 points on most FCS teams. If the do on Akron, the Zips are in huge trouble.
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08-03-2019 03:33 PM |
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Ohio Poly
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RE: Football Week 1 Thoughts and Projections
(08-03-2019 03:33 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote: (07-29-2019 03:55 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote: Illinois 52- Akron 13
Akron will finish last behind BG this year...
I'm not sure Illinois could put up 52 points on most FCS teams. If the do on Akron, the Zips are in huge trouble.
IDK what to expect of the Zips this season but I would take them against that spread. I think the players and new staff will be fired up.
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08-07-2019 08:44 PM |
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