(07-05-2019 06:12 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(07-04-2019 11:23 PM)pono Wrote:  kent has more talent and size than central

Maybe it's just a matchup problem/style of play ... but Central often beats Kent with ease (see MAC Tournament and reg season 2019) while Kent when it beats CMU usually it goes down to the wire (see MAC Tournament 2017).

Kent may very well have more talent ... but CMU has more KNOWN talent returning that Kent ... certainly just as much.

I consistently mention CMU as being better than given credit for here, even though I'm not a CMU fan. I think Keno Davis does well without an easy recruiting pitch plus a small market. And they have played Kent well, but the flashes were the stronger team last year. Both squads lost their go to guy and their pg. However, Kent gets back one of their better players and one of the MAC's more athletic bigs from an injury RS, plus has a deeper recruiting class including a fairly highly recruited juco forward who could start. I think Kent has a sleeper shot at winning the league, while CMU will be better than picked but doesn't have enough to fight for a title

I have half of the MAC complete in terms of a very rough preview, focused on the West. This is subject to change once final rosters are all online, here is how I see the west shaping up. This is not a final standings prediction as it depends on schedules of teams, but just a very rough prelim West power rank, numbers provided for relative sense of placement.

1. Ball State .781
2. Toledo .764
3. Central Michigan .643
4. Northern Illinois .621
5. Eastern Michigan .447
6. Western Michigan .414

(07-17-2019 10:34 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I have half of the MAC complete in terms of a very rough preview, focused on the West. This is subject to change once final rosters are all online, here is how I see the west shaping up. This is not a final standings prediction as it depends on schedules of teams, but just a very rough prelim West power rank, numbers provided for relative sense of placement.

1. Ball State .781
2. Toledo .764
3. Central Michigan .643
4. Northern Illinois .621
5. Eastern Michigan .447
6. Western Michigan .414

What is your margin of error? I know it's early but with more than a .100 point lead I feel like Ball State and Toledo will at least land safely above CMU and NIU. Also for them safely ahead of EMU and WMU. In prediction realm that is...

(07-18-2019 01:02 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(07-17-2019 10:34 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I have half of the MAC complete in terms of a very rough preview, focused on the West. This is subject to change once final rosters are all online, here is how I see the west shaping up. This is not a final standings prediction as it depends on schedules of teams, but just a very rough prelim West power rank, numbers provided for relative sense of placement.

1. Ball State .781
2. Toledo .764
3. Central Michigan .643
4. Northern Illinois .621
5. Eastern Michigan .447
6. Western Michigan .414

What is your margin of error? I know it's early but with more than a .100 point lead I feel like Ball State and Toledo will at least land safely above CMU and NIU. Also for them safely ahead of EMU and WMU. In prediction realm that is...

Margin of error = tremendous haha. Basically all this does is account for what a team loses to transfers and graduation, extrapolates slight improvement over last year's stats for each player returning, and essentially only treats newcomers into two groups JC transfers and freshman. I am using a lot of estimated data right now, Sep 1st I make a more thorough sweep of finalized rosters. Last year the two huge failures in my rankings with the preseason were Ball State (overestimated) and BGSU (underestimated). Everything else worked out pretty good.

Here is a very rough view of how I see things shaping up after a little more tinkering, will post a more thorough Sep1st preview once all the rosters are up. I am surprised Ball State came up this high, but I think in the scheme I use Ball State is being rewarded for some balance. With Buffalo coming back down to earth at least this year it appears 4 or 5 teams could win this thing

1. Ball State .774
2. Toledo .774
3. Buffalo .771
4. Bowling Green .753
5. Kent State .708
6. Central Michigan .667
7. Northern Illinois .639
8. Akron .625
9. Miami-OH .583
10. Ohio .447
11. Western Michigan .409
12. Eastern Michigan .408

(07-18-2019 11:18 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Here is a very rough view of how I see things shaping up after a little more tinkering, will post a more thorough Sep1st preview once all the rosters are up. I am surprised Ball State came up this high, but I think in the scheme I use Ball State is being rewarded for some balance. With Buffalo coming back down to earth at least this year it appears 4 or 5 teams could win this thing

1. Ball State .774
2. Toledo .774
3. Buffalo .771
4. Bowling Green .753
5. Kent State .708
6. Central Michigan .667
7. Northern Illinois .639
8. Akron .625
9. Miami-OH .583
10. Ohio .447
11. Western Michigan .409
12. Eastern Michigan .408

This is not a trick question ... but a serious one: I think every team on this list is within one or two spots, up or down, of where just about everyone would pick them.

But while I would 'pick' these teams in this general order, I would 'bet on these teams quite differently.

The question ...

What would be your top three teams to bet on?

For me, ...

1. Buffalo
2. Western Michigan
3. Kent State

(And this is not to hijack the thread ... just add to it).

(07-18-2019 12:58 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 11:18 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Here is a very rough view of how I see things shaping up after a little more tinkering, will post a more thorough Sep1st preview once all the rosters are up. I am surprised Ball State came up this high, but I think in the scheme I use Ball State is being rewarded for some balance. With Buffalo coming back down to earth at least this year it appears 4 or 5 teams could win this thing

1. Ball State .774
2. Toledo .774
3. Buffalo .771
4. Bowling Green .753
5. Kent State .708
6. Central Michigan .667
7. Northern Illinois .639
8. Akron .625
9. Miami-OH .583
10. Ohio .447
11. Western Michigan .409
12. Eastern Michigan .408

This is not a trick question ... but a serious one: I think every team on this list is within one or two spots, up or down, of where just about everyone would pick them.

But while I would 'pick' these teams in this general order, I would 'bet on these teams quite differently.

The question ...

What would be your top three teams to bet on?

For me, ...

1. Buffalo
2. Western Michigan
3. Kent State

(And this is not to hijack the thread ... just add to it).

Can you expand on top 3 teams to bet on, in what sense?

Ah wait I think I know what you mean, like best teams to roll dice with if the odds are included? If I am reading this right I would go with

1) Ball State - may not receive much love, Buffalo/Toledo/BGSU will probably scoop up most of preseason hype.
2) CMU - Davis seems to get the most out of his players, could be a darkhorse if Toledo/Ball State underperform
3) Kent State - many questions, how will transfer who sat out last year contribute, will Pippen be back 100%. If everything falls together, could be dangerous.


One other note, also as we all suspect I think , these numbers kind of suggest a pretty big down year for the MAC. To give some meaning behind the numbers above, here are some rough approximations on where the scores typically place teams nationally:

1.20+ Top 10
1.00+ Top 25
0.80+ Top 100
0.60+ Top 150
0.40+ Top 260

If you follow this rationale, this might suggest it could be a challenge to get a MAC team even in the top 100 this year. Having said that, there is a likely bias to underevaluate teams with these scores somewhat because more weight is given to what you lose, and not foreseeing so much what you gain the following year that is not so easy to see. I think there will be a traffic jam of 4 to 5 MAC teams in that 100-120 slot nationally. I fear we are going to see the MAC slide to an upper teens ranking in terms of conference this season.

(07-18-2019 01:06 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 12:58 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 11:18 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Here is a very rough view of how I see things shaping up after a little more tinkering, will post a more thorough Sep1st preview once all the rosters are up. I am surprised Ball State came up this high, but I think in the scheme I use Ball State is being rewarded for some balance. With Buffalo coming back down to earth at least this year it appears 4 or 5 teams could win this thing

1. Ball State .774
2. Toledo .774
3. Buffalo .771
4. Bowling Green .753
5. Kent State .708
6. Central Michigan .667
7. Northern Illinois .639
8. Akron .625
9. Miami-OH .583
10. Ohio .447
11. Western Michigan .409
12. Eastern Michigan .408

This is not a trick question ... but a serious one: I think every team on this list is within one or two spots, up or down, of where just about everyone would pick them.

But while I would 'pick' these teams in this general order, I would 'bet on these teams quite differently.

The question ...

What would be your top three teams to bet on?

For me, ...

1. Buffalo
2. Western Michigan
3. Kent State

(And this is not to hijack the thread ... just add to it).

Can you expand on top 3 teams to bet on, in what sense?

Ah wait I think I know what you mean, like best teams to roll dice with if the odds are included? If I am reading this right I would go with

1) Ball State - may not receive much love, Buffalo/Toledo/BGSU will probably scoop up most of preseason hype.
2) CMU - Davis seems to get the most out of his players, could be a darkhorse if Toledo/Ball State underperform
3) Kent State - many questions, how will transfer who sat out last year contribute, will Pippen be back 100%. If everything falls together, could be dangerous.


One other note, also as we all suspect I think , these numbers kind of suggest a pretty big down year for the MAC. To give some meaning behind the numbers above, here are some rough approximations on where the scores typically place teams nationally:

1.20+ Top 10
1.00+ Top 25
0.80+ Top 100
0.60+ Top 150
0.40+ Top 260

If you follow this rationale, this might suggest it could be a challenge to get a MAC team even in the top 100 this year. Having said that, there is a likely bias to underevaluate teams with these scores somewhat because more weight is given to what you lose, and not foreseeing so much what you gain the following year that is not so easy to see. I think there will be a traffic jam of 4 to 5 MAC teams in that 100-120 slot nationally. I fear we are going to see the MAC slide to an upper teens ranking in terms of conference this season.

The trick to a good "TOP 10 Conference RPI" is a strong non-conference performance across the board. Whil Buffalo got a lot of notoriety last year several teams had solid to VG non-con slates in terms of beating teams at the MAC level or above ... at least enough of them ... without losing to many if any dregs. That's the first order of business.

After that, the MAC needs 1-2 teams to really dominate/separate themselves from the rest of the league. History, particularly recent history, shows that rarely happens.

What needs to happen is for two teams that pull really good road non-con upsets to have strong 20-win seasons, both have Top 75 RPI to at least be in the bubble conversation, then advance to the MAC Tournament Finals. Understanding one of those two teams is reg-season champ, then maybe the league can get two teams in the NCAA Tournament.

MAYBE???

I don't see any way the MAC team gets 2 teams in. Pretty much every team got hit hard by either graduation or transfer. I wouldn't be surprised to see 12-6 being good enough to win the conference as nobody really on paper looks separated from the pack.

(07-18-2019 02:53 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I don't see any way the MAC team gets 2 teams in. Pretty much every team got hit hard by either graduation or transfer. I wouldn't be surprised to see 12-6 being good enough to win the conference as nobody really on paper looks separated from the pack.

If 12-6 wins the league, I tell you right now that will be a cutthroat bloodbath of a regular season ending with at least three teams holding that record.

If six-plus teams have 10-MAC wins or more the MAC Tournament will be a bloodbath as well, considering the tiebreakers will leave a couple of teams very salty.

If, as the consensus stands, the MAC has no chance at 2-NCAA bids .... I say let's have a bloodbath. Could make for a really good/interesting regular season.

(07-18-2019 03:23 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 02:53 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I don't see any way the MAC team gets 2 teams in. Pretty much every team got hit hard by either graduation or transfer. I wouldn't be surprised to see 12-6 being good enough to win the conference as nobody really on paper looks separated from the pack.

If 12-6 wins the league, I tell you right now that will be a cutthroat bloodbath of a regular season ending with at least three teams holding that record.

If six-plus teams have 10-MAC wins or more the MAC Tournament will be a bloodbath as well, considering the tiebreakers will leave a couple of teams very salty.

If, as the consensus stands, the MAC has no chance at 2-NCAA bids .... I say let's have a bloodbath. Could make for a really good/interesting regular season.

I wonder if Ball State and Toledo might have the best shot at that 2nd team given a weaker bottom half in the West. The East is probably going to really really beat up on itself

The Mac is gonna be down. Last year we would have had 2 teams if someone upset Buffalo in the tournament. The same scenario of 1 team being top 25 caliber is the only likely scenario. Next year the only team potentially that good is Buffalo again. However, it depends on transfers getting waivers and RS transfers and a juco blending in well. They have a lot of talent but there is no guarantee it will mesh or mesh early enough to give them the big non conf wins needed for an atlarge. I would have said Toledo maybe has a shot but the injury to edu makes them less formidable.

(07-19-2019 04:18 AM)pono Wrote:  The Mac is gonna be down. Last year we would have had 2 teams if someone upset Buffalo in the tournament. The same scenario of 1 team being top 25 caliber is the only likely scenario. Next year the only team potentially that good is Buffalo again. However, it depends on transfers getting waivers and RS transfers and a juco blending in well. They have a lot of talent but there is no guarantee it will mesh or mesh early enough to give them the big non conf wins needed for an atlarge. I would have said Toledo maybe has a shot but the injury to edu makes them less formidable.

Toledo still has more than enough pieces to be top tier like Buffalo, even with the injury. The key will be Willie Jackson being a rebounding and defensive force. Ball State has a lot of pieces as well.

Certainly the MAC will need a Top 25 caliber team, but big non-con wins across the board will be huge for the league as well. Has anyone seen any non-con schedules???

Toledo had a very poor sked last year as I recall ... hope that has improved significantly. Hope Buffalo stays about the same ... all others need to step up as well.

I'm surprised that so many people are high on Toledo. The Rockets only return four players who were in last year's rotation. The same is true of Buffalo, but the difference is that the Bulls have two big-time transfers who sat out last year and are now eligible, another transfer from Cincinnati likely to get a waiver to play this year, a JUCO guy who is expected to be very good, and an incoming freshman who turned down an offer from Wisconsin. The Rockets, on the other other hand, will be relying for their fifth starter spot and entire bench on true freshmen, red-shirt freshmen, and one returning player who wasn't in the rotation last year. The four known quantities - Luke Knapke, Willie Jackson, Marreon Jackson, and Spencer Littleson - are fine but not amazing. Marreon Jackson, the best of the four, is coming back from shoulder surgery in March. If the Rockets get a bye to Cleveland, that would be a very successful season for this group, and that is a realistic goal only because the MAC is down.

Two bids this year? Forget it, except for the possible scenario pono mentioned where Buffalo turns out to be very good but gets upset in the tournament. No way that there are two legit NCAA tournament teams from the MAC this year.

(07-19-2019 04:28 AM)cleveland Wrote:  

(07-19-2019 04:18 AM)pono Wrote:  The Mac is gonna be down. Last year we would have had 2 teams if someone upset Buffalo in the tournament. The same scenario of 1 team being top 25 caliber is the only likely scenario. Next year the only team potentially that good is Buffalo again. However, it depends on transfers getting waivers and RS transfers and a juco blending in well. They have a lot of talent but there is no guarantee it will mesh or mesh early enough to give them the big non conf wins needed for an atlarge. I would have said Toledo maybe has a shot but the injury to edu makes them less formidable.

Toledo still has more than enough pieces to be top tier like Buffalo, even with the injury. The key will be Willie Jackson being a rebounding and defensive force. Ball State has a lot of pieces as well.

Certainly the MAC will need a Top 25 caliber team, but big non-con wins across the board will be huge for the league as well. Has anyone seen any non-con schedules???

Toledo had a very poor sked last year as I recall ... hope that has improved significantly. Hope Buffalo stays about the same ... all others need to step up as well.

I haven't seen Akron's full OOC schedule, but it should be fairly decent by MAC standards. Below are the games that I've heard to be on Akron's schedule.

@WVU
Cleveland State
@Marshall
UMass
@Louisville
YSU
N.C. Central
USC Upstate

Akron's also participating in the Battle for the Capital which is a 4 team tournament that included Liberty, Towson, Tulane, and obviously Akron.

Obviously WVU and Louisville would be the big games, but Marshall, UMass, and some combination of whoever they face in the Battle of the Capital could be good wins for the MAC. Certainly there are some cupcakes and a few games TBD.

(07-19-2019 07:53 AM)Dwight Wrote:  I'm surprised that so many people are high on Toledo. The Rockets only return four players who were in last year's rotation. The same is true of Buffalo, but the difference is that the Bulls have two big-time transfers who sat out last year and are now eligible, another transfer from Cincinnati likely to get a waiver to play this year, a JUCO guy who is expected to be very good, and an incoming freshman who turned down an offer from Wisconsin. The Rockets, on the other other hand, will be relying for their fifth starter spot and entire bench on true freshmen, red-shirt freshmen, and one returning player who wasn't in the rotation last year. The four known quantities - Luke Knapke, Willie Jackson, Marreon Jackson, and Spencer Littleson - are fine but not amazing. Marreon Jackson, the best of the four, is coming back from shoulder surgery in March. If the Rockets get a bye to Cleveland, that would be a very successful season for this group, and that is a realistic goal only because the MAC is down.

Two bids this year? Forget it, except for the possible scenario pono mentioned where Buffalo turns out to be very good but gets upset in the tournament. No way that there are two legit NCAA tournament teams from the MAC this year.

I agree the two bids wont happen, just a crazy dream. I had not heard about the Edu injury, I think Toledo can overcome it though. Who is the returning player for UT that didn't play last year?

Has anyone else heard of any other season ending injuries for their teams?

(07-19-2019 04:18 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(07-19-2019 07:53 AM)Dwight Wrote:  I'm surprised that so many people are high on Toledo. The Rockets only return four players who were in last year's rotation. The same is true of Buffalo, but the difference is that the Bulls have two big-time transfers who sat out last year and are now eligible, another transfer from Cincinnati likely to get a waiver to play this year, a JUCO guy who is expected to be very good, and an incoming freshman who turned down an offer from Wisconsin. The Rockets, on the other other hand, will be relying for their fifth starter spot and entire bench on true freshmen, red-shirt freshmen, and one returning player who wasn't in the rotation last year. The four known quantities - Luke Knapke, Willie Jackson, Marreon Jackson, and Spencer Littleson - are fine but not amazing. Marreon Jackson, the best of the four, is coming back from shoulder surgery in March. If the Rockets get a bye to Cleveland, that would be a very successful season for this group, and that is a realistic goal only because the MAC is down.

Two bids this year? Forget it, except for the possible scenario pono mentioned where Buffalo turns out to be very good but gets upset in the tournament. No way that there are two legit NCAA tournament teams from the MAC this year.

I agree the two bids wont happen, just a crazy dream. I had not heard about the Edu injury, I think Toledo can overcome it though. Who is the returning player for UT that didn't play last year?

Has anyone else heard of any other season ending injuries for their teams?

Dylan Alderson. Got some minutes as a freshman, then battled minor injuries last year. Doesn't seem like a game-changer, but he can give solid minutes.

Walk before you can run. I would like it if the MAC is on the inside track to have a team in the NIT whether or not the regular season champion claims the NIT autobid.

(07-21-2019 04:14 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Walk before you can run. I would like it if the MAC is on the inside track to have a team in the NIT whether or not the regular season champion claims the NIT autobid.

you may be alone in that demographic. i, like most MAC fans, want 2 teams in the dance. and if we get the usual 1, we want that 1 team to get an upset or two. there is the side chick of the NIT that is occasionally exciting but no MAC team has made the Garden since like Toledo in 1942. kent st and ball st had a good runs about 15-20 years back but more recently mac teams have been lucky to get a win. plus, getting a team in the NIT is a guarantee if your top team loses in the mac tourney. you could have a team in the dance and a team in the NIT and not be as good a league as when you only have a team in the dance but they are a powerful team. and typically, the only exciting ending to the season for mac fans is an upset or 2 in the NCAAs. nobody remembers the year we lost in the NCAAs but some MAC team won an NIT game. not trying to be mean Bruce, just how I see it on one level. i get your point that consistently having 1 top 70 team every year is walking. but i think it's more about producing teams that are tough outs in the tourney and trying to catch a break when a top 40 mac team gets upset in the MAC tourney.

(07-25-2019 03:57 AM)pono Wrote:  

(07-21-2019 04:14 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Walk before you can run. I would like it if the MAC is on the inside track to have a team in the NIT whether or not the regular season champion claims the NIT autobid.

you may be alone in that demographic. i, like most MAC fans, want 2 teams in the dance.

That's what I want, but it would be naive to think the conference is going to jump from a position of rarely even getting an at-large bid to the NIT to suddenly getting regular at-large Tourney bids.