(07-25-2019 05:38 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-25-2019 03:57 AM)pono Wrote:  

(07-21-2019 04:14 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Walk before you can run. I would like it if the MAC is on the inside track to have a team in the NIT whether or not the regular season champion claims the NIT autobid.

you may be alone in that demographic. i, like most MAC fans, want 2 teams in the dance.

That's what I want, but it would be naive to think the conference is going to jump from a position of rarely even getting an at-large bid to the NIT to suddenly getting regular at-large Tourney bids.

I agree. Last year, the 2nd best MAC team (Toledo) was good enough to get an NIT bid. If that were to happen again this year, it would be a huge success for the conference. On the women's side, the MAC can now legitimately hope for an annual at-large NCAA bid. The men aren't there yet.

(07-25-2019 07:38 AM)Dwight Wrote:  

(07-25-2019 05:38 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-25-2019 03:57 AM)pono Wrote:  

(07-21-2019 04:14 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Walk before you can run. I would like it if the MAC is on the inside track to have a team in the NIT whether or not the regular season champion claims the NIT autobid.

you may be alone in that demographic. i, like most MAC fans, want 2 teams in the dance.

That's what I want, but it would be naive to think the conference is going to jump from a position of rarely even getting an at-large bid to the NIT to suddenly getting regular at-large Tourney bids.

I agree. Last year, the 2nd best MAC team (Toledo) was good enough to get an NIT bid. If that were to happen again this year, it would be a huge success for the conference. On the women's side, the MAC can now legitimately hope for an annual at-large NCAA bid. The men aren't there yet.

Compare the women's non-con skeds to the men ... there is the difference. They play up ... home and on the road ... the men play down.

It's easier for the MAC to compete in a non-revenue sport like women's basketball. The B1G, Big East, SEC, PAC-12, AAC, AAC, etc. schools aren't plowing truck loads of money into the sport to gain a competitive advantage like they are men's basketball or football.

I am finishing up a MAC basketball outlook and was just curious if anyone had any info on season ending injuries for your MAC team. The only one I know of is Edu for Toledo, are there any other players with a greater than 50 percent probability out for the season ? Thanks for any help

(09-11-2019 08:45 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I am finishing up a MAC basketball outlook and was just curious if anyone had any info on season ending injuries for your MAC team. The only one I know of is Edu for Toledo, are there any other players with a greater than 50 percent probability out for the season ? Thanks for any help

Tra'von Fagan tore his ACL this summer and is likely out for the entire year.

(09-11-2019 08:49 PM)trueblue32 Wrote:  

(09-11-2019 08:45 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I am finishing up a MAC basketball outlook and was just curious if anyone had any info on season ending injuries for your MAC team. The only one I know of is Edu for Toledo, are there any other players with a greater than 50 percent probability out for the season ? Thanks for any help

Tra'von Fagan tore his ACL this summer and is likely out for the entire year.

Thanks trueblue!

Flowers, WMU best player, has a leg injury that was reported to be moderate and should heal and allow him to return this season but may cause him to miss games.

I believe EMU's top recruit did not enroll in school.

Ohio is expecting Dartis to be back from his serious hip problem that caused him to miss last year.

BG has a top backup, Laster, on suspension.

(09-13-2019 04:42 AM)pono Wrote:  Flowers, WMU best player, has a leg injury that was reported to be moderate and should heal and allow him to return this season but may cause him to miss games.

I believe EMU's top recruit did not enroll in school.

Ohio is expecting Dartis to be back from his serious hip problem that caused him to miss last year.

BG has a top backup, Laster, on suspension.

Hard to say he was EMU’s “top recruit”. He was a 4* recruit once upon a time, but was most recently at a JUCO and missed that entire year with a knee injury. We have a couple other transfers that are more promising than Thomas was.

However, it’s tough to get a good read on exactly how good (or bad) we are going to be, since we will basically have a brand new team. I’m not sure how Murphy survived this offseason.

(09-13-2019 04:42 AM)pono Wrote:  Flowers, WMU best player, has a leg injury that was reported to be moderate and should heal and allow him to return this season but may cause him to miss games.

I believe EMU's top recruit did not enroll in school.

Ohio is expecting Dartis to be back from his serious hip problem that caused him to miss last year.

BG has a top backup, Laster, on suspension.

BG: Laster was a backup but likely the starting PG this fall assuming this all gets cleared up. Incoming Fr would be his backup.
Edit, Dylan Frye will still be our starter at PG.

so, i think every mac school is in session and has posted an official schedule. some thoughts on several schools, in no particular order

NIU has a pretty interesting schedule compared to their usual. it's pretty tough too. opener at home w n iowa who is usually good. they got always good iowa st away and then 3 home games in a row. a couple regional road games and a visit from oakland before a cali trip to st mary's (most folks pre season top 25) and uc davis. take a trip to pitt and green bay at home. mac east crossover is tough drawing road games at bg, buffalo and kent. niu will probably have their best rpi/bmi/net/computer ranking in a while with a 500 season simply by the schedule.

ball st non conf schedule as usual is heavy on regional teams w 6 from indiana and illinois plus a game w n kentucky. with they play games in chicago, indianapolis, atlanta and honolulu. and close tough with loyola, ga tech, washington plus 2 more in diamond head classic. they also draw buffalo, kent, bg on the road in mac east.

buffalo has a couple home tune up games then dives in with harvard in toronto (harvard is a peseason top 40 team). uconn in a loaded 3 game tourney, home w william and mary and then on the road with vandy and a rapidly improving depaul program in their new downtown/loop arena. that's one of the toughest stretches in the league. they close with 4 home games over the winter break including 3 regional rivals niagara, canisius, st bonnie. the mac east looks pretty wide open still UB travels to the top 2 programs, ball st and toledo.

toledo has a typically mid range schedule with a balance of home and road games and lots of strong mid majors - marshall (twice, home n home) at valpo at bradley with wright st and oakland at home plus a tough but beatable acc road foe in nearby notre dame. in what should be mandatory in scheduling ut finally plays BG home n home, they also draw kent twice , plus get a home game w buffalo so UT has a chance to impact the mac east race quite a bit.

bg has the most unique non-conf schedule. 6 mostly uneventful names at home, an early road trip to LSU and 6 neutral court games. their paradise jam opener w western kentucky is a big mid major matchup between 2 programs trying to get into that ncaa or bubble conversation with the winner moving into the loaded side of the bracket. bg gets toledo and ball st twice each.

Kent State plays @ 'The' and also @ Mississippi State

Akron OOC games of note.

@ WVU
@ Louisville
Neutral - Tulane (Cupcake but AAC opponent)
Neutral - Liberty/Towson (Liberty would be a quality matchup, Towson not so much)
UMass (Not good, but A10 opponent)
@Marshall (Should be a solid C-USA team)

The rest of the schedule is bottom feeders.

(09-19-2019 04:18 AM)pono Wrote:  so, i think every mac school is in session and has posted an official schedule. some thoughts on several schools, in no particular order

NIU has a pretty interesting schedule compared to their usual. it's pretty tough too. opener at home w n iowa who is usually good. they got always good iowa st away and then 3 home games in a row. a couple regional road games and a visit from oakland before a cali trip to st mary's (most folks pre season top 25) and uc davis. take a trip to pitt and green bay at home. mac east crossover is tough drawing road games at bg, buffalo and kent. niu will probably have their best rpi/bmi/net/computer ranking in a while with a 500 season simply by the schedule.


ball st non conf schedule as usual is heavy on regional teams w 6 from indiana and illinois plus a game w n kentucky. with they play games in chicago, indianapolis, atlanta and honolulu. and close tough with loyola, ga tech, washington plus 2 more in diamond head classic. they also draw buffalo, kent, bg on the road in mac east.

buffalo has a couple home tune up games then dives in with harvard in toronto (harvard is a peseason top 40 team). uconn in a loaded 3 game tourney, home w william and mary and then on the road with vandy and a rapidly improving depaul program in their new downtown/loop arena. that's one of the toughest stretches in the league. they close with 4 home games over the winter break including 3 regional rivals niagara, canisius, st bonnie. the mac east looks pretty wide open still UB travels to the top 2 programs, ball st and toledo.

toledo has a typically mid range schedule with a balance of home and road games and lots of strong mid majors - marshall (twice, home n home) at valpo at bradley with wright st and oakland at home plus a tough but beatable acc road foe in nearby notre dame. in what should be mandatory in scheduling ut finally plays BG home n home, they also draw kent twice , plus get a home game w buffalo so UT has a chance to impact the mac east race quite a bit.I believe BG has only 4 neutral site games.

bg has the most unique non-conf schedule. 6 mostly uneventful names at home, an early road trip to LSU and 6 neutral court games. their paradise jam opener w western kentucky is a big mid major matchup between 2 programs trying to get into that ncaa or bubble conversation with the winner moving into the loaded side of the bracket. bg gets toledo and ball st twice each.

I believe BG has only 4 neutral site games. Chance at playing UC in the first one and we should win the second.

Paradise Jam
BG/WKU and UC/Illinois St winner vs winner, loser vs loser.

Boardwalk Battle
BG/Norflok St and Drexel/Quinnipiac then the winner vs winner, loser vs loser.

I'm not sure what to think of BG this year. They had a great middle of the season last year. I don't know which team will show up. We have a good core group but we also need some unknowns to step up quickly.

(09-20-2019 11:49 AM)Siborg Wrote:  

(09-19-2019 04:18 AM)pono Wrote:  so, i think every mac school is in session and has posted an official schedule. some thoughts on several schools, in no particular order

NIU has a pretty interesting schedule compared to their usual. it's pretty tough too. opener at home w n iowa who is usually good. they got always good iowa st away and then 3 home games in a row. a couple regional road games and a visit from oakland before a cali trip to st mary's (most folks pre season top 25) and uc davis. take a trip to pitt and green bay at home. mac east crossover is tough drawing road games at bg, buffalo and kent. niu will probably have their best rpi/bmi/net/computer ranking in a while with a 500 season simply by the schedule.


ball st non conf schedule as usual is heavy on regional teams w 6 from indiana and illinois plus a game w n kentucky. with they play games in chicago, indianapolis, atlanta and honolulu. and close tough with loyola, ga tech, washington plus 2 more in diamond head classic. they also draw buffalo, kent, bg on the road in mac east.

buffalo has a couple home tune up games then dives in with harvard in toronto (harvard is a peseason top 40 team). uconn in a loaded 3 game tourney, home w william and mary and then on the road with vandy and a rapidly improving depaul program in their new downtown/loop arena. that's one of the toughest stretches in the league. they close with 4 home games over the winter break including 3 regional rivals niagara, canisius, st bonnie. the mac east looks pretty wide open still UB travels to the top 2 programs, ball st and toledo.

toledo has a typically mid range schedule with a balance of home and road games and lots of strong mid majors - marshall (twice, home n home) at valpo at bradley with wright st and oakland at home plus a tough but beatable acc road foe in nearby notre dame. in what should be mandatory in scheduling ut finally plays BG home n home, they also draw kent twice , plus get a home game w buffalo so UT has a chance to impact the mac east race quite a bit.I believe BG has only 4 neutral site games.

bg has the most unique non-conf schedule. 6 mostly uneventful names at home, an early road trip to LSU and 6 neutral court games. their paradise jam opener w western kentucky is a big mid major matchup between 2 programs trying to get into that ncaa or bubble conversation with the winner moving into the loaded side of the bracket. bg gets toledo and ball st twice each.

I believe BG has only 4 neutral site games. Chance at playing UC in the first one and we should win the second.

Paradise Jam
BG/WKU and UC/Illinois St winner vs winner, loser vs loser.

Boardwalk Battle
BG/Norflok St and Drexel/Quinnipiac then the winner vs winner, loser vs loser.

I'm not sure what to think of BG this year. They had a great middle of the season last year. I don't know which team will show up. We have a good core group but we also need some unknowns to step up quickly.

BG has 3 games in the paradise jam, 2 games in the boardwalk battle, 1 in miami vs jacksonville

bg should be good. they were mostly good last year. huger can coach. they got almost everyone back. talent wise not a powerhouse, but -barring key injuries- a good mac team for sure

Here is how I have expected wins right now for conference season.

Expected Conference Wins

1 Ball State 12.2
2 Toledo 12.0
3 BGSU 11.6
4 Buffalo 10.9
5 Kent State 10.8
6 CMU 10.1
7 NIU 9.4
8 Akron 9.3
9 Miami-OH 7.7
10 Ohio 5.3
11 WMU 4.5
12 EMU 4.4

Expected Conference Win Differential from Last Season

Most Improved

1 Ball State +6.2
2. Western Michigan +2.5
3. Akron +1.3

Biggest Dropoffs

1. Buffalo -5.1
2. EMU -4.6
3. Toledo -1.0

To me folks are overlooking Buffalo. They are still the favorite, imo. the 2 best all around returning guards in the league. 2 solid 5th year transfers who practiced w the team last yr and can shoot, 2 rotation guys back ready to make the typical big yr 1 to yr 2 jump, and an excellent recruiting class. obviously, there's the question if UB can play with the same focus and consistency without nate oats, but the talent (especially on the perimeter) and winning culture is there to repeat.

(09-22-2019 07:23 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Here is how I have expected wins right now for conference season.

Expected Conference Wins

1 Ball State 12.1
2 Toledo 12.0
3 BGSU 11.5
4 Buffalo 11.0
5 Kent State 10.7
6 CMU 10.0
7 Akron 9.4
8 NIU 9.1
9 Miami-OH 7.7
10 Ohio 5.4
11 WMU 4.5
12 EMU 4.5

Expected Conference Win Differential from Last Season

Most Improved

1 Ball State +6.1
2. Western Michigan +2.5
3. Akron +1.4

Biggest Dropoffs

1. Buffalo -4.9
2. EMU -4.5
3. Toledo -1.0

Willing to bet any sum that you are wrong on at least nine of your win predictions. WTH does 12.1 expected wins mean?

(09-23-2019 09:49 AM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote:  

(09-22-2019 07:23 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Here is how I have expected wins right now for conference season.

Expected Conference Wins

1 Ball State 12.1
2 Toledo 12.0
3 BGSU 11.5
4 Buffalo 11.0
5 Kent State 10.7
6 CMU 10.0
7 Akron 9.4
8 NIU 9.1
9 Miami-OH 7.7
10 Ohio 5.4
11 WMU 4.5
12 EMU 4.5

Expected Conference Win Differential from Last Season

Most Improved

1 Ball State +6.1
2. Western Michigan +2.5
3. Akron +1.4

Biggest Dropoffs

1. Buffalo -4.9
2. EMU -4.5
3. Toledo -1.0

Willing to bet any sum that you are wrong on at least nine of your win predictions. WTH does 12.1 expected wins mean?

These are just based on individual game probabilities to get the final number. Just as it doesn't to make sense to say someone has a 30 percent chance to win, they either win or lose, this is much the same. So 12 expected wins for Toledo if you round it. Here are the rounded predictions and verification from last August. Obviously I laid eggs with Bowling Green and Ball State, but was able to see the rise of CMU and the less than great year of EMU.


Team Predicted number of wins/actual wins

Buffalo 15/16
Kent State 9/11
Ohio 9/6
Miami-OH 8/7
Akron 6/8
Bowling Green 7/12

Toledo 11/13
Central Michigan 9/10
Eastern Michigan 9/9
Northern Illinois 7/8
Ball State 11/6
W Michigan 7/2

Meanwhile, the rich get richer, as Buffalo got a verbal commitment today from a guy who had a number of high major offers, and Bowling Green got its third verbal, all from guys with multiple MAC and other mid-major offers.

Kent State's roster turnover -
Big losses are G Jaylin Walker and G Jalen Avery, both gone after playing 4 years at Kent. F Akiean Frederick also graduates out. G DeAndre Gholston and F BJ Duling also leave, these were promising recruits that weren't as successful as we hoped. Former transfer G Kain Harris transfers out after being on scholarship for 2 years and playing 75 minutes.

Returning players: G CJ Willaimson; G Mitch Peterson; F Danny Pippen - still recovering, injury redshirt last year; G Antonio Willaims; G Anthony Roberts; and F Philip Whittington

Freshmen: G Giovanni Santiago ["the Puerto Rican Lonzo Ball", if you believe that], G Jeremiah Hernandez, C Kalin Bennett, F Evan Bainbridge. I don't expect much from the freshmen this year. Also walk-ons F Jon King and G Sentwali Nalls

Transfers in: G Troy Simons - former New Mexico player, redshirted at Kent last year; JUCO F Anyeuri Castillo; F Tervell Beck from UNLV, allowed to play this year.

Transfer G Mike Nuga from Portland State will be redshirting this year

I expect a lot this season from Troy Simons (9.9 ppg as a SG with New Mexico in 17-18), Tervell Beck, and Anyeuri Castillo. 11 wins looks like a good prediction