(07-09-2019 01:42 PM)orangefan Wrote: Expansion slots are precious. Using one ties up a valuable slot that may have a more valuable use in the future. What if Texas suddenly wanted a Notre Dame like deal. While a long shot, it is a possibility. What if ND lost its mind and decided to join for football, we'd need another football program not a basketball only. If we really were considering a basketball only invite, should we consider other candidates - Villanova? Georgetown? St. John's? If there is absolutely no urgency, it is not wise to act.
Couldn't have said it any better, orangefan. Well stated.
To add to your comment about slots being precious, another point folks need to remember and pay closer attention to (IMO) is the extra mouth to feed is another cut from the conference kitty. And that applies not just to the ACC, but to any conference. It is one reason I won't be surprised at all to see the AAC stay with what they have - at least for a while.
When adding or replacing, a big stable power conference like the ACC is in a position where it doesn't have to worry over its members all see it as a stepping stone to a higher conference. Every member of the AAC would leave tomorrow to a P5 given the chance. It is as much about survival as it is expanding/replacing. The ACC - along with the Big 10+4 and SEC in particular - is looking to find the prime rib at the meat counter and bypassing the cube steak at the end.
In the ACC's case, though it applies to all conferences, from a financial perspective we must add only those who will add far more revenue to enhance the kitty to the point where once the money cuts are distributed out that it isn't a significant drop. Or, at least, the feeling is that in time it will grow to that point.
For example, let's say the ACC in the coming years tops total distribution around the $600M mark (approaching but still not where the Big 10+4 and SEC are or will be at the same time...but play along for the sake of example)....
$600M divided 15 ways (to keep numbers clean I'll just say ND gets full cut though that may not be the case of course) is $40M per school. Add in another mouth to feed and it is now $37.5M. $2.5M doesn't sound too terribly bad...though, that can be the difference in keeping quality assistant FB coaches or keeping a successful head basketball coach. Whoever joins needs to be able to add in $40M alone in revenue for the original 15 schools to stay at the $40M/year level. I think the prime rib who can add that are the ones that have been mentioned before (Penn State, Texas, etc...even as unlikely as their departures from their respective conferences are). As orangefan correctly points out, the ACC is under no urgency to act hastily for cube steak (ok ok, the cube steak reference was mine).