(06-05-2019 03:33 PM)Rice93 Wrote: The day the Mexican tariffs were announced the market dropped. Other things also occurred that day however most ascribe the drop to the tariff announcement.
Since then, there has been softened rhetoric from China regarding trade negotiations.
Probably a result of Trump playing hardball, instead of the softball of previous administrations. Preople get scared when hardball is played - thery are told it is risky. What the media and the weak-kneed do not seem to understand is that tariffs are not the goal of Trump - merely a tool. This is where electing a negotiator (instead of a beggar) pays off.
Quote:There have also been soft signals from Powell concerning a rate cut. These are the major two issues that have raised the DJIA since it dropped after the tariff announcement.
I wonder if the Powell announcement was not coming anyway.
Quote:Most experts feel that a tariff on Mexico is a clear negative for the market. Any hint of further tariffs (concerning any country) spooks the market.
True, but does it really change the underlying fundamentals, or is it just a mini-stampede to get out of the most affected stocks, followed a few days later to put that money to work with different stocks? BTW, my cat stampedes to hide under the bed when it hears thunder, but it always eventually comes out.
Quote:I think he's very focused on the stock market because you hear things from insiders in the administration that he is constantly monitoring the indices and he freaks out when there are major drops. That may or may not be the case but I believe it.
I think it would be foolish NOT to follow the market, but unlike the way some Presidents have followed polls, I don't think improvement in the Dow is a goal. He sees it as a symptom. This may not be the case, but I believe it.
I think some people who were previously worried but are less so now will be swayed by the economy. Others will not.
Certainly, those who have IRAs and 401Ks will know how their investments are doing. Those tend to be people who have had jobs all along.
I think the most likely group to come out for him is the tradespeople - the carpenters, plumbers, painters, concrete men, who were scrapping from job to job and now cannot keep up with the building boom. There is a 200 house development a stones throw from here - wasnot there in 2016. Everywhere I go I see things being built - not just housing, but business offices and warehouses. Those people will largely favor Trump. They remember the when it was not this good, just a few years ago.
Maybe a better indicator is the price of gas. A station close to e just went to $2.05/gal. I remember how people blamed Bush 43 for "putting money in the pockets of his rich friends" when it first started up. Every time it went up .01 it was Bush's choice. But now we have gotten used to that level of gas prices and the downward trend is noticeable. $2.05 sounds a lot better coming down from $2.85 than coming up from $1.65.
Not everybody who is better off will vote for him because of that, or because their sector is booming, or because they have a job, just a small minority. But that may be enough. It will depend a lot on how they see Democrat policies affecting them. Things like more oil regulation and higher taxes on businesses might be seen by the smarter ones as taking money out of their policies. The rest will vote STD, on the promise of more regulations to save the polar bears and higher taxes for the other guy.
