Tony Shaver's career at W&M started in the 2003-2004 season.

In his fifth year, the Tribe reached the CAA finals.

In his seventh year, the Tribe reached the CAA finals again.

In his eleventh year, the Tribe reached the CAA finals again.

In his twelfth year, the Tribe reached the CAA finals again.

Statistically, in a 10 team league, all things being equal, a team should reach the finals every five years, or four times in twenty years. Check!

Statistically, in a 10 team league, all things being equal, a team should win the finals every ten years. That did not happen. So, which of the four losses in the finals (Mason, ODU, Delaware, Northeastern) were due to Tony's coaching? Anyone? Anyone?

It was all beyond his control, yet we fire him.

Continuing on:

Tony Shaver's career at W&M started in the 2003-2004 season.

During that time, the CAA champions have been:

VCU (4)
ODU (3)
Wilmington (3)
NU (2)
Mason
JMU
Delaware
Charleston

Four current members (including W&M)- zero

Continuing on.

In the modern era of the CAA (Post ODU and VCU)(2013-2019):

Appearances in the CAA finals:

NU (4)
W&M (2)
Wilmington (2)
Hofstra (2)
Charleston (2)
JMU
Delaware

I would approach this fallacy from the other side -- there seems to be a lot of magical thinking around here, along the lines of "Now that Tony is gone, Ms. Huge will surely hire Wonderful Unnamed Coach X (for a mere pittance of a salary, so the buyout will be no problem), and Wonderful Unnamed Coach X will surely take whatever is left of Tony's Team to the Dance next season, while Tony definitely would not/could not ever have done so. We're trading up from a 0% chance to a 100% chance -- what a deal!!!!!!!"

"And it will definitely happen next year, so there was absolutely no reason to keep Tony around for at least one more year to coach the wonderful team he had put together, but was just too incompetent (or mean) to coach, poor dear."

I would love to live in that world -- but then I'm a big fan of unicorns and leprechauns.

nj alum, you've got a lot of time on your hands these days.

(03-19-2019 08:18 AM)Blow Gym rat Wrote:  I would approach this fallacy from the other side -- there seems to be a lot of magical thinking around here, along the lines of "Now that Tony is gone, Ms. Huge will surely hire Wonderful Unnamed Coach X (for a mere pittance of a salary, so the buyout will be no problem), and Wonderful Unnamed Coach X will surely take whatever is left of Tony's Team to the Dance next season, while Tony definitely would not/could not ever have done so. We're trading up from a 0% chance to a 100% chance -- what a deal!!!!!!!"

"And it will definitely happen next year, so there was absolutely no reason to keep Tony around for at least one more year to coach the wonderful team he had put together, but was just too incompetent (or mean) to coach, poor dear."

I would love to live in that world -- but then I'm a big fan of unicorns and leprechauns.

If that's how you're reading it, more power to you, but the "magical thinking" is more along the lines of "Maybe there are good reasons for firing Coach Shaver and I hope that the next coach can take the great strides he made to the next level."

And finally, a budgetary comparison:

Wilmington (three championships overall and two appearances in the finals in the modern era)(3/2) $2,981,003
JMU (1/1) $2,911,439
Drexel (0/0) $2,861,372
NU (2/4) $2,740,955
Hofstra (0/2) $2,613,307
Delaware (1/1) $2,472,966
CofC (1/2) $2,422,777
W&M (0/2) $2,071,151
Towson (0/0) $1,948,144
Elon (0/0) $1,879,115

So, when the Athletics Department evaluated Tony, and decided to fire him because he didn't make the Dance, was any consideration given to the budgetary resources that the Athletics Department gave him, and whether same had any effect on making the Dance?

It is more than a coincidence that all of the hardware belongs to the higher-spending schools, but this was Tony's fault at W&M.

Sure it was!

An argument can be made, a very strong argument, that W&M has not made the Dance due to the funding by the Athletics Department, not the abilities of the coach.

Yet, we are told that it was the coaches' fault, and he should be fired.

Outrageous!

(03-19-2019 08:20 AM)TribeInTheBurg Wrote:  nj alum, you've got a lot of time on your hands these days.

If the Athletics Director had taken the time that I've taken, and understood the history of the program, she would not have fired Tony Shaver.

Thank you for making my point.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2018/6/1...-mid-major

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_A...Tournament

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Shaver

(03-19-2019 08:23 AM)TribeInTheBurg Wrote:  

(03-19-2019 08:18 AM)Blow Gym rat Wrote:  I would approach this fallacy from the other side -- there seems to be a lot of magical thinking around here, along the lines of "Now that Tony is gone, Ms. Huge will surely hire Wonderful Unnamed Coach X (for a mere pittance of a salary, so the buyout will be no problem), and Wonderful Unnamed Coach X will surely take whatever is left of Tony's Team to the Dance next season, while Tony definitely would not/could not ever have done so. We're trading up from a 0% chance to a 100% chance -- what a deal!!!!!!!"

"And it will definitely happen next year, so there was absolutely no reason to keep Tony around for at least one more year to coach the wonderful team he had put together, but was just too incompetent (or mean) to coach, poor dear."

I would love to live in that world -- but then I'm a big fan of unicorns and leprechauns.

If that's how you're reading it, more power to you, but the "magical thinking" is more along the lines of "Maybe there are good reasons for firing Coach Shaver and I hope that the next coach can take the great strides he made to the next level."

Well, no -- that would be a sane and reasonable approach. Those aren't the posts I'm talking about. (And no, I'm at work so I don't have time to go post-diving to dredge up examples for you of what I'm talking about.)

Also, let me add "Ms. Huge will surely hire Wonderful Unnamed Coach X (despite the fact that Tony's firing was totally spur-of-the-moment based on the second half of the Delaware game, and there was absolutely no pre-planning of who a successor would be, and it would be outrageous to suggest otherwise) ..."

The only way that I can make sense of what happened is that there is/was something going on in the background that changing coaches at this time is designed to correct/head-off that I'm not aware of, ie the threat of multiple transfers such as happened after the 20116-17 season, or something else that would hamper the program going forward.

(03-19-2019 08:36 AM)LeadBolt Wrote:  The only way that I can make sense of what happened is that there is/was something going on in the background that changing coaches at this time is designed to correct/head-off that I'm not aware of, ie the threat of multiple transfers such as happened after the 20116-17 season, or something else that would hamper the program going forward.

I agree. I don't have any reason to believe it's true, but it is the only way this makes sense.

(03-19-2019 08:40 AM)Blow Gym rat Wrote:  

(03-19-2019 08:36 AM)LeadBolt Wrote:  The only way that I can make sense of what happened is that there is/was something going on in the background that changing coaches at this time is designed to correct/head-off that I'm not aware of, ie the threat of multiple transfers such as happened after the 20116-17 season, or something else that would hamper the program going forward.

I agree. I don't have any reason to believe it's true, but it is the only way this makes sense.

This seems like a good theory and the letter yesterday from Huge could maybe imply this from this quote:

"Coach Holmes has been an exceptional mentor to our players, and I am grateful for his ongoing work with these young men and managing day-to-day operations during this interim period. "

Sitting behind the bench for almost all home games for 30 years also gives some insight on player interaction with the various Coaches. We owe much to Tony and in no way am I happy he did not get his chance next year with his team but I also trust that Huge would not make this move just to put her person in place now and get all the negative feedback. JP almost 4 minute You Tube of his junior year highlights seems to have been worked on before Tony was not retained for next season.

What are the chances that the new hire will be Holmes?

(03-19-2019 09:09 AM)88tribefan Wrote:  What are the chances that the new hire will be Holmes?

Based on nothing more than pure speculation, very low. Huge has made her play; if she hires an assistant who worked under the same man she just terminated, and has never served as a head coach, it will appear that she was unable to attract qualified candidates.

The budget numbers NJ Alum provided are illuminating. Comparing our annual budget with our conference competitors, it appears Tony got the most "bang for the buck" of any program in the CAA over the last six seasons.

NJ Alum, do you know off-hand the budgets for ODU, VCU, UVA, and Virginia Tech?

Trevor

(03-19-2019 09:34 AM)ttgwm02 Wrote:  

(03-19-2019 09:09 AM)88tribefan Wrote:  What are the chances that the new hire will be Holmes?

Based on nothing more than pure speculation, very low. Huge has made her play; if she hires an assistant who worked under the same man she just terminated, and has never served as a head coach, it will appear that she was unable to attract qualified candidates.

The budget numbers NJ Alum provided are illuminating. Comparing our annual budget with our conference competitors, it appears Tony got the most "bang for the buck" of any program in the CAA over the last six seasons.

NJ Alum, do you know off-hand the budgets for ODU, VCU, UVA, and Virginia Tech?

Trevor

I would include Richmond, Radford, and Liberty on this list of budgets of interest.

(03-19-2019 09:34 AM)ttgwm02 Wrote:  

(03-19-2019 09:09 AM)88tribefan Wrote:  What are the chances that the new hire will be Holmes?

Based on nothing more than pure speculation, very low. Huge has made her play; if she hires an assistant who worked under the same man she just terminated, and has never served as a head coach, it will appear that she was unable to attract qualified candidates.

The budget numbers NJ Alum provided are illuminating. Comparing our annual budget with our conference competitors, it appears Tony got the most "bang for the buck" of any program in the CAA over the last six seasons.

NJ Alum, do you know off-hand the budgets for ODU, VCU, UVA, and Virginia Tech?

Trevor

Any coaching announcement that does not address the need for more resources is going to be pretty difficult to stomach (unless we learn of other compelling reasons to let Shaver go).

Would JTIII know how to win at W&M without the resources of Georgetown? I wonder how our spending compares to the spending Coach Odom has at UMBC (although it may have increased some after they knocked off UVa). Maybe Coach Davis at Bucknell is most similarly situated, but I my guess is that there is not a huge discrepancy between his resources and his Patriot League competitors.

If the AD doesn't address the relatively inferior facilities and resources, it will take a truly special coach to navigate the unique problems W&M faces. And, yes, I am very aware that Coach Shaver was pretty special in this regard. I am not convinced that these 3 possible candidates - or any other possible candidates mentioned - have demonstrated that ability.

(03-19-2019 08:18 AM)Blow Gym rat Wrote:  I would approach this fallacy from the other side -- there seems to be a lot of magical thinking around here, along the lines of "Now that Tony is gone, Ms. Huge will surely hire Wonderful Unnamed Coach X (for a mere pittance of a salary, so the buyout will be no problem), and Wonderful Unnamed Coach X will surely take whatever is left of Tony's Team to the Dance next season, while Tony definitely would not/could not ever have done so. We're trading up from a 0% chance to a 100% chance -- what a deal!!!!!!!"

"And it will definitely happen next year, so there was absolutely no reason to keep Tony around for at least one more year to coach the wonderful team he had put together, but was just too incompetent (or mean) to coach, poor dear."

I would love to live in that world -- but then I'm a big fan of unicorns and leprechauns.

I haven't really seen that magical thinking, except from the people who are Definitely Not Mad Online about Shaver being fired setting strawmen on fire. Most people are curious as to who is going to take the program to the tourney.

I'm sympathetic to the idea that Shaver should have gotten a chance with Knight as a senior, but a) he had 16 years to get the team there, b) he had Thornton/Tarpey/Prewitt/Dixon already (so it's not like this was his first team with talent, and 2014-15>2019-20), c) his teams from 2013-14 on that were good enough to win have all fell short in the tourney in almost exactly the same way every year, suggesting a lack of change; d) had it not happened next year, the Definitely Not Mad Online people would deflect to 2021-22 being the year.

(03-19-2019 09:34 AM)ttgwm02 Wrote:  

(03-19-2019 09:09 AM)88tribefan Wrote:  What are the chances that the new hire will be Holmes?

Based on nothing more than pure speculation, very low. Huge has made her play; if she hires an assistant who worked under the same man she just terminated, and has never served as a head coach, it will appear that she was unable to attract qualified candidates.

The budget numbers NJ Alum provided are illuminating. Comparing our annual budget with our conference competitors, it appears Tony got the most "bang for the buck" of any program in the CAA over the last six seasons.

NJ Alum, do you know off-hand the budgets for ODU, VCU, UVA, and Virginia Tech?

Trevor

The budget numbers for all schools is in the mid major madness link in post #9.

(03-19-2019 09:48 AM)Marshall Wythe Wrote:  

(03-19-2019 09:34 AM)ttgwm02 Wrote:  

(03-19-2019 09:09 AM)88tribefan Wrote:  What are the chances that the new hire will be Holmes?

Based on nothing more than pure speculation, very low. Huge has made her play; if she hires an assistant who worked under the same man she just terminated, and has never served as a head coach, it will appear that she was unable to attract qualified candidates.

The budget numbers NJ Alum provided are illuminating. Comparing our annual budget with our conference competitors, it appears Tony got the most "bang for the buck" of any program in the CAA over the last six seasons.

NJ Alum, do you know off-hand the budgets for ODU, VCU, UVA, and Virginia Tech?

Trevor

Any coaching announcement that does not address the need for more resources is going to be pretty difficult to stomach (unless we learn of other compelling reasons to let Shaver go).

Would JTIII know how to win at W&M without the resources of Georgetown? I wonder how our spending compares to the spending Coach Odom has at UMBC (although it may have increased some after they knocked off UVa). Maybe Coach Davis at Bucknell is most similarly situated, but I my guess is that there is not a huge discrepancy between his resources and his Patriot League competitors.

If the AD doesn't address the relatively inferior facilities and resources, it will take a truly special coach to navigate the unique problems W&M faces. And, yes, I am very aware that Coach Shaver was pretty special in this regard. I am not convinced that these 3 possible candidates - or any other possible candidates mentioned - have demonstrated that ability.

Can we even support JTIII's salary with our MBB resources?