stever20
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RE: Laughable Scores - 2018/19 Men's Basketball - pt 2
(03-07-2019 01:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: (03-07-2019 12:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (03-07-2019 10:21 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: (03-07-2019 09:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (03-07-2019 01:19 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote: Hey if the Big East only gets 2 bids this year it's no big deal. Basketball is cyclical and the league just may be in a down turn right now like the AAC was the past couple of years, but the conference has proven that it can compete at the highest level of the game and will again soon just as the American is starting to do.
The Big East has been down a little this year, but only a little. It has still been a top 5 conference (#5 in RPI, #4 in NET right now) well ahead of the AAC. It just hasn't been top-heavy so doesn't have many tournament prospects.
The league is beating up itself, and to Stever's point, the round-robin (in this case) is actually a detriment to the league's bids/seedings than an advantage. While the AAC does have programs like ECU and Tulane (historical cellar dwellers), I do like how they have fixed their schedules to ensure the top teams only have to play them once. It guarantees the top programs only one negative NET game (but ensuring a win), while getting some home/homes with other top programs in a given year.
For the Big East, I do think (long-term) having a program like DePaul get back to respectability is a good thing for the league. Chicago is a big basketball market, and if DePaul can get back to being a tournament team, it can only be beneficial. Next year, the Big East just needs to perform better in OOC, and the in-conference losses won't impact as much (theoretically).
With how many of the Big East teams were "rebuilding" this year - Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Xavier, Georgetown, Creighton and DePaul - there should be no surprise the league took a step back this year. I think the only disappointment thus far would really be St. John's due to their inconsistency, given their experience and star-power (Ponds). However, given their inconsistency, I would not be surprised to see them make a run in the BET or NCAAT in a few weeks. It's been that type of year.
I agree with all this in the sense that the Big East hasn't been as good this year as it was last year or the year before.
But, we still have been pretty darn good. Sure, you can always win more OOC games, but the bottom line is we are #5 in RPI and #4 in NET. You don't get that without performing pretty well against good teams from other conferences.
Billyjack posted elsewhere that the 2019 Big East has become the first 10+ team conference in college basketball history to have every team at 500 or better (Smaller-sized conferences have done it only 3 times in the past 40 seasons: 1995 Metro, with 7 teams; 1985 ACC, with 8 teams, got 5 bids; 1984 ACC, with 8 teams, got 5 bids).
It would be interesting to see the optimal value of projecting the maximum number of bids for the Big East with various numbers of members. At ten members, we hit seven bids a few seasons ago, but I don't think it is feasible to expect that year-to-year. If we were ever to move to eleven teams, would that increase the odds of the conference getting seven-plus bids? Twelve? More than that? At some point you start to decrease your value, not only in terms of television payouts, but also watering down the on-court product. The TV payouts should, in theory, be moot, however, since the original Fox TV deal language called for equal payouts to league membership for up-to-twelve members. Would a SLU and/or Dayton in the league this year increased the likely number of bids we would (will) have seen? What about a Duquesne? I'm honestly not sure.
FWIW, I only used those three schools due to institutional fit, location and spending on men's basketball - I realize strong arguments can be made about fit for the lack of postseason success for each program. Would acquiring an institutional fit, that could finish in the top-half every few seasons, increase the odds of getting more bids/higher seeds in the tournament?
The .500 record is pretty close to meaningless now. I mean DePaul is 15-13 right now. Sounds great. But 7 of their 15 wins are Q4 wins. Yikes.
As far as the bids, if Big East went 11, they're going 20 conference games. So that's not going to help much IMO. If Big East went 12 teams, but 18 games- that's where you get helped. I mean right now there are 5 conferences who play 18 games with 12 teams. Only the Pac 12 has a 3rd place team with fewer than 12 conference wins right now. Only the Pac 12 has a 4th place team with fewer than 10 conference wins right now. Only 2 losing 5th and 6th place teams(both of those in the OVC, where 3rd place was 15-3 and 4th place was 13-5).
avg 3 in 12 team conf 12-4.8
avg 4 in 12 team conf 10.8-6
avg 5 in 12 team conf 8.8-8.2
avg 6 in 12 team conf 8.4-8.6
avg 7 in 12 team conf 7.6-9.2
avg 8 in 12 team conf 7.2-9.6
avg 3 in 10 team conf 10.8-6.8
avg 4 in 10 team conf 10-7.7
avg 5 in 10 team conf 8.4-9.1
avg 6 in 10 team conf 7.8-9.7
I'd add that the 3 and 4 numbers for the 10 team conferences are buffered by the Southern Conference where 3rd place and 4th place are 13-5.
I really think 12 teams/18 games is the way to go. If you have a weak team or 2, you can really hide them in there for your top teams. Being 6th in 12 team conference is better than being 5th in 10 team conference. With a bit to go almost no difference between being 8th in a 12 team conference and being 6th in a 10 team conference....
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2019 02:44 PM by stever20.)
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