(01-16-2019 05:29 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: (01-16-2019 04:49 PM)JRsec Wrote: 2034 to be precise, but that's if we don't have a reevaluation prior due to the addition of a couple of more schools. And if that does occur then ESPN will be quite willing to give a fair reevaluation because this time it will be ESPN wanting the moves so they can re-up prior to the contract expiration which gives them an early advantage on FAANG competition.
That said once the fair market value of the SEC is acquired I don't expect much in the way of raises moving forward. I think the rights bubble has leveled and that the Big 10 and SEC will plateau and that PAC and Big 12 if it remains will find their bottom before they see another raise. The ACC could go either way.
JR, who do you see the SEC expanding with before then?
I'm thinking 2022 here with the parties perhaps known as early as late 2020. But who it will be depends really upon how soon movement could happen in the Big 12 (as I still see that as much more likely than PAC movement).
Obviously the Big 10 and SEC will have interest in some of the same targets.
If you looked at it from a conference standpoint I would say that the Big 10's priorities would be Texas and Oklahoma and while the SEC would see the value in those two as well, we are in a more comfortable position with regard to penetrating the Texas market. The most economical addition by the SEC would be Oklahoma. They give us the % of the DFW market we want, and add a state and a national brand for content value. But Texas would do the same. The obvious question with each of those schools (if they are inclined to move at all) would be how much they would insist upon their other state school's inclusion.
I've remarked before that from a pure value perspective the ideal additions for the Big 10 would be Colorado and Texas. Two significant demographics, a hot recruiting area and one old rival for Nebraska. Except for the panhandle of Oklahoma they provide a contiguous route for the Big 10 and both are academic stalwarts.
For the SEC the pairing of Oklahoma and Kansas would be a very nice fit. They complete the geographic boundary of the SEC West, add two national brands one of which is in our weakest sport and the SEC could actually monetize Kansas a bit better than the Big 10 because we would not be diluted by their football program and need their strength in hoops.
The Big 10 penetrates Kansas fairly well already, Denver would be the better add. That said money is the only lure the Big 10 would have for Colorado, but the current failing business model of the PAC coupled with their expiration of contract and GOR in 2024 does leave a window for change.
Should both Texas and Oklahoma insist upon a 2nd state school then everything changes. In that event Texas Tech might squeeze into the Big 10 should Texas decide to go, but Texas Tech would hold more value to the SEC paired with Texas than Oklahoma State would paired with Oklahoma. Since OU and OSU together to the Big 10 would likely be a non starter, that makes the whole process much murkier. I think at that point the SEC would prefer to triple dip a state of 28 million rather than double dip a state of 3.9 million.
Lost in this is the fact that Oklahoma has only 2 old foes in the SEC (A&M / B12 & Missouri Big8&Big 12). They have only 1 in the Big 10, Nebraska.
Since there are rumors out there on multiple sites that there may be a push for going divisionless that figures into it as well. If a move to 15 is doable without upsetting divisional balance, then an early move by a school like Kansas could be possible to either the SEC or a little less likely the Big 10. In that case should Texas want to protect more than 1 other Texas school you might see the Horns head West with Tech and another. In that situation Oklahoma becomes the biggest objective for the SEC and Big 10.
Now all of that said, if movement happens early it will likely include coattails. In that world and in a divisionless atmosphere moves of up to 4 become workable. So a conference taking Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State become possible. The ACC for example would find it much easier to accommodate Texas, another Texas school, West Virginia and still hold a slot for the Irish if we move to a P4 with champs only format.
The SEC could ponder Texa-homa and in that kind of move would hold a geographical and cultural advantage. The PAC could possibly take as many as 6 Big 12 schools in that climate.
So to answer your question more directly the SEC might wind up with any of the following:
Texas & Oklahoma
Oklahoma & Kansas
Texas & Kansas
Texas & Texas Tech
Oklahoma & Oklahoma St.
Kansas & T.C.U.
Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, & Oklahoma St.
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, & West Virginia
and several other variations.
What I don't expect to see happen, at least until the GOR expires, is for Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia head anywhere as a group because none of the remaining schools could find a home.
And none of that takes into consideration the outcome of the Alston case, but it does take into consideration that both FOX and ESPN have much to gain by having particularly the Big 10, SEC, and possibly the PAC make early additions, qualify contractually for revaluations of their new inventory, sign current contract extensions, and thereby avoid FAANG interference when the current contracts and GOR's are up.
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