RE: It Looks Like It Could Be Slim Pickings for Major Non CFP Bowls This Year
All right, let's pull some bowl projections out of my rear end right now. Starting with the current CFP rankings, let's say every higher ranked team wins, and no one's ranking changes. That's not realistic, but it's quick.
Semifinals(Cotton, Orange): Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan (12-1).
Rose: B1G vs PAC Champ. Ohio State (10-2, #10) vs Wazzu (12-1, #8)
Sugar: SEC vs XII Champ. Georgia (11-2, #5) vs Oklahoma (12-1, #6)
Then the Fiesta and Peach get UCF (13-0, #12), LSU (#7, 10-2), West Virginia (10-3, #9), and, er, Kentucky (9-3, #11). Let's leave it be so I can finish this post.
Next 3 picks, looking at the CFP rankings:
SEC: Florida (9-3, #15), Mississippi State (8-4, #16), Auburn (7-5, #24)
OK that's not great, but the reality is that one of those gets swapped out for 9-3 Kentucky (who will NOT be #11 in the next rankings). (Not that it really matters, the 4-5 SEC picks after the CFP and Cap One Bowl are all theoretically equal--Charlotte, Music City, Gator, Tampa, Houston, Liberty)
B1G: Michigan State (8-4, #18), Penn State (9-3, #20) and Western Division champs Northwestern (8-5).
So the Cap One Bowl (the only one that pays a premium for a premium matchup) can have 9-3 #20 Penn STate vs 9-3 #15 Florida. Everybody else with an SEC-Big Ten game can take their matchup of 2 6-6 schools with big traveling fanbases and enjoy their Iowa-South Carolina game or whatever.
The bowls are not going to prefer an 11-1 Cincinnati over a 6-6 South Carolina, or a 12-1 Buffalo over a 6-6 Indiana. that's been demonstrated pretty bluntly.
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