Checking in with KC Keeler and Soft Doucheston...

...lost today at home to Abilene Christian to move the Softies to 5-5 on the season.

Probably moves them down from a 2 seed to a 3 seed.

:>)

Checking in with D1AA's Idaho...

...Montana ripped them in Moscow tonight, 46-27. Idaho scored 2 late TD's to make the margin look less awful as the Griz was up by 30 heading to the 4Q. This moves the Vandals to a 4-6 record in their first year back in D1AA and assures a losing record.

Next up? They take the long flight to the Swamp next weekend.

(11-10-2018 09:55 PM)Wear Purple Wrote:  Checking in with KC Keeler and Soft Doucheston...

...lost today at home to Abilene Christian to move the Softies to 5-5 on the season.

Probably moves them down from a 2 seed to a 3 seed.

:>)

LOL! Yeah, pretty much.

(11-10-2018 08:28 PM)PurpleSoloCup84 Wrote:  What do people think about the Missouri Valley Conf.? How many do you think they will get in? Two for sure...and maybe a 6-5 team or so. I can't see them just getting 2 teams.

Right now they look like a 3 bid conference to me: NDSU, SDSU, Indiana St. That’s what it should be.

*Maybe* they slip in one 6-5 bubble team like Illinois St if they have some “quality” wins (9-7 over NorthWestern), but hard to see them getting two 6-5 teams in. I’d say 4 teams max for the MVFC, it’s a down year for them.

(11-10-2018 10:25 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 08:28 PM)PurpleSoloCup84 Wrote:  What do people think about the Missouri Valley Conf.? How many do you think they will get in? Two for sure...and maybe a 6-5 team or so. I can't see them just getting 2 teams.

Right now they look like a 3 bid conference to me: NDSU, SDSU, Indiana St. That’s what it should be.

*Maybe* they slip in one 6-5 bubble team like Illinois St if they have some “quality” wins (9-7 over NorthWestern), but hard to see them getting two 6-5 teams in. I’d say 4 teams max for the MVFC, it’s a down year for them.

And, Indiana State travels to Western Illinois next Saturday where they will likely be about a TD underdog.

(11-10-2018 08:01 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 07:44 PM)jmuduke10 Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 06:07 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 03:10 PM)s2dsayer Wrote:  Towson destroyed Elon 41-10. We got a tough task next week...

Yep, gonna need the W next week to secure a playoff slot, and a shot at a seed. CAA is a big logjam at #2, ironically we now need Elon to beat Maine to get at least a piece of the CAA title.

Next week is odd, winner likely gets a seed and the loser might stay home from the playoffs. However, I think JMU gets in even with a loss ($$ speaks)

They’re not taking 6 CAA teams.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. They have to take SOMEBODY and the playoff bubble just isn’t there this year. Take the STATS top 25. Top 20 included 1 bye. 15 of the top 19 playing won. 3 of the other 4 lost to a ranked team, so shouldn’t be too penalized. All of the top 6 CAA teams fit into one of those categories. Then from #21 through Others Receving Votes, ignoring Ivys (these should be all the bubble teams) 10 of the next 11 lost. Even if we or Towson or Maine or Elon gets a third conference loss next week, I’m having a hard time finding a team that’s going to take that at-large spot away.

(11-10-2018 10:25 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 08:28 PM)PurpleSoloCup84 Wrote:  What do people think about the Missouri Valley Conf.? How many do you think they will get in? Two for sure...and maybe a 6-5 team or so. I can't see them just getting 2 teams.

Right now they look like a 3 bid conference to me: NDSU, SDSU, Indiana St. That’s what it should be.

*Maybe* they slip in one 6-5 bubble team like Illinois St if they have some “quality” wins (9-7 over NorthWestern), but hard to see them getting two 6-5 teams in. I’d say 4 teams max for the MVFC, it’s a down year for them.

The MVFC has 7 of the top 25 FCS teams in the Sagarin, but 5 of them are 5-5 or 4-6. The CAA and Big Sky have 5 of the top 25 FCS teams in the Sagarin, and the next most is 2. Maine leads the CAA standings but is 7th in the CAA in the Sagarin in 144th. Maine could win the CAA title with a Sagarin over 100 spots worse than North Dakota State. In terms of a down year, the MVFC has its second worst Sagarin in the last eight years. It's slightly above what it was in 2016, but it could fall below that. It's still the best FCS conference by far, but the CAA is getting closer in recent weeks. Of the FBS Group of 5 conferences, the MVFC is ahead of Conference USA, and is closer to the Mountain West, Mid-American, and Sun Belt above it than to the CAA below it. The CAA is closer to the Ivy League, which is fifth of the 13 FCS conferences, than to the MVFC. The top eight schedules in FCS are in the MVFC, and New Hampshire and Idaho are the only FCS teams with a harder schedule than the easiest MVFC schedule. The median MVFC schedule is 6.90 points better than the median CAA schedule

(11-11-2018 12:26 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 10:25 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 08:28 PM)PurpleSoloCup84 Wrote:  What do people think about the Missouri Valley Conf.? How many do you think they will get in? Two for sure...and maybe a 6-5 team or so. I can't see them just getting 2 teams.

Right now they look like a 3 bid conference to me: NDSU, SDSU, Indiana St. That’s what it should be.

*Maybe* they slip in one 6-5 bubble team like Illinois St if they have some “quality” wins (9-7 over NorthWestern), but hard to see them getting two 6-5 teams in. I’d say 4 teams max for the MVFC, it’s a down year for them.

The MVFC has 7 of the top 25 FCS teams in the Sagarin, but 5 of them are 5-5 or 4-6. The CAA and Big Sky have 5 of the top 25 FCS teams in the Sagarin, and the next most is 2. Maine leads the CAA standings but is 7th in the CAA in the Sagarin in 144th. Maine could win the CAA title with a Sagarin over 100 spots worse than North Dakota State. In terms of a down year, the MVFC has its second worst Sagarin in the last eight years. It's slightly above what it was in 2016, but it could fall below that. It's still the best FCS conference by far, but the CAA is getting closer in recent weeks. Of the FBS Group of 5 conferences, the MVFC is ahead of Conference USA, and is closer to the Mountain West, Mid-American, and Sun Belt above it than to the CAA below it. The CAA is closer to the Ivy League, which is fifth of the 13 FCS conferences, than to the MVFC. The top eight schedules in FCS are in the MVFC, and New Hampshire and Idaho are the only FCS teams with a harder schedule than the easiest MVFC schedule. The median MVFC schedule is 6.90 points better than the median CAA schedule

The Sagarin means absolutely NOTHING in this discussion. The Committee will not even look at it.

The only SOS measure that will be considered is the NCAA SRS. I'm pretty confident the CAA will have more bids than MFVC this year.

CAA gets a minimum of 4 in, maybe as many as 6. MVFC likely gets 3, though with the right losses could only get 2. At most they will have 4 if they squeek one 6-5 team in. No way they are going to get a bunch of bids because of what the flippin Sag says.

McFeely in article with MFVC committee rep, says MFVC may get as few as 2 bids this year:

https://www.jamestownsun.com/sports/foot...s-are-mess

I believe 3 for MVFC is likely, IF Indiana St beats WIU.

Sam Herder points out that Indiana St. will have at most 6 Div I wins. If they lose to WIU, they would only have 5 D1 wins.
https://herosports.com/fcs/football-mvfc...-2018-bzbz

(11-11-2018 08:13 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 08:01 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 07:44 PM)jmuduke10 Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 06:07 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 03:10 PM)s2dsayer Wrote:  Towson destroyed Elon 41-10. We got a tough task next week...

Yep, gonna need the W next week to secure a playoff slot, and a shot at a seed. CAA is a big logjam at #2, ironically we now need Elon to beat Maine to get at least a piece of the CAA title.

Next week is odd, winner likely gets a seed and the loser might stay home from the playoffs. However, I think JMU gets in even with a loss ($$ speaks)

They’re not taking 6 CAA teams.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. They have to take SOMEBODY and the playoff bubble just isn’t there this year. Take the STATS top 25. Top 20 included 1 bye. 15 of the top 19 playing won. 3 of the other 4 lost to a ranked team, so shouldn’t be too penalized. All of the top 6 CAA teams fit into one of those categories. Then from #21 through Others Receving Votes, ignoring Ivys (these should be all the bubble teams) 10 of the next 11 lost. Even if we or Towson or Maine or Elon gets a third conference loss next week, I’m having a hard time finding a team that’s going to take that at-large spot away.

Wow, looking at the standings & schedules I see you are correct. CAA is minimum 4, likely 5, possibly 6. I’ll take a stab at it:
CAA 5
Big Sky: 4 (Including quasi independent N Dakota)
MVFC 3
Southland: 3
So-Con: 2
OVC: 2
Big South: 1
Patriot: 1
NEC: 1
Pioneer: 1
MEAC: 1

(11-11-2018 02:03 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 08:13 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 08:01 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 07:44 PM)jmuduke10 Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 06:07 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Yep, gonna need the W next week to secure a playoff slot, and a shot at a seed. CAA is a big logjam at #2, ironically we now need Elon to beat Maine to get at least a piece of the CAA title.

Next week is odd, winner likely gets a seed and the loser might stay home from the playoffs. However, I think JMU gets in even with a loss ($$ speaks)

They’re not taking 6 CAA teams.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. They have to take SOMEBODY and the playoff bubble just isn’t there this year. Take the STATS top 25. Top 20 included 1 bye. 15 of the top 19 playing won. 3 of the other 4 lost to a ranked team, so shouldn’t be too penalized. All of the top 6 CAA teams fit into one of those categories. Then from #21 through Others Receving Votes, ignoring Ivys (these should be all the bubble teams) 10 of the next 11 lost. Even if we or Towson or Maine or Elon gets a third conference loss next week, I’m having a hard time finding a team that’s going to take that at-large spot away.

Wow, looking at the standings & schedules I see you are correct. CAA is minimum 4, likely 5, possibly 6. I’ll take a stab at it:
CAA 5
Big Sky: 4 (Including quasi independent N Dakota)
MVFC 3
Southland: 3
So-Con: 2
OVC: 2
Big South: 1
Patriot: 1
NEC: 1
Pioneer: 1
MEAC: 1

It’ll be close. I don’t think there will be a team more deserving than the #6 CAA team, but I think the committee will not like the idea of 6 CAA teams.

(11-11-2018 03:20 PM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 02:03 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 08:13 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 08:01 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 07:44 PM)jmuduke10 Wrote:  Next week is odd, winner likely gets a seed and the loser might stay home from the playoffs. However, I think JMU gets in even with a loss ($$ speaks)

They’re not taking 6 CAA teams.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. They have to take SOMEBODY and the playoff bubble just isn’t there this year. Take the STATS top 25. Top 20 included 1 bye. 15 of the top 19 playing won. 3 of the other 4 lost to a ranked team, so shouldn’t be too penalized. All of the top 6 CAA teams fit into one of those categories. Then from #21 through Others Receving Votes, ignoring Ivys (these should be all the bubble teams) 10 of the next 11 lost. Even if we or Towson or Maine or Elon gets a third conference loss next week, I’m having a hard time finding a team that’s going to take that at-large spot away.

Wow, looking at the standings & schedules I see you are correct. CAA is minimum 4, likely 5, possibly 6. I’ll take a stab at it:
CAA 5
Big Sky: 4 (Including quasi independent N Dakota)
MVFC 3
Southland: 3
So-Con: 2
OVC: 2
Big South: 1
Patriot: 1
NEC: 1
Pioneer: 1
MEAC: 1

It’ll be close. I don’t think there will be a team more deserving than the #6 CAA team, but I think the committee will not like the idea of 6 CAA teams.

IMO -they will if its JMU (and the money/fans we will bring).. same if NDSU, Montana etc were on a similar bubble
.. If we win bank on us getting the #6/7 seed (opposite of NDSU)

(11-11-2018 02:03 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 08:13 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 08:01 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 07:44 PM)jmuduke10 Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 06:07 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Yep, gonna need the W next week to secure a playoff slot, and a shot at a seed. CAA is a big logjam at #2, ironically we now need Elon to beat Maine to get at least a piece of the CAA title.

Next week is odd, winner likely gets a seed and the loser might stay home from the playoffs. However, I think JMU gets in even with a loss ($$ speaks)

They’re not taking 6 CAA teams.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. They have to take SOMEBODY and the playoff bubble just isn’t there this year. Take the STATS top 25. Top 20 included 1 bye. 15 of the top 19 playing won. 3 of the other 4 lost to a ranked team, so shouldn’t be too penalized. All of the top 6 CAA teams fit into one of those categories. Then from #21 through Others Receving Votes, ignoring Ivys (these should be all the bubble teams) 10 of the next 11 lost. Even if we or Towson or Maine or Elon gets a third conference loss next week, I’m having a hard time finding a team that’s going to take that at-large spot away.

Wow, looking at the standings & schedules I see you are correct. CAA is minimum 4, likely 5, possibly 6. I’ll take a stab at it:
CAA 5
Big Sky: 4 (Including quasi independent N Dakota)
MVFC 3
Southland: 3
So-Con: 2
OVC: 2
Big South: 1
Patriot: 1
NEC: 1
Pioneer: 1
MEAC: 1

The MEAC doesn't participate in the playoffs, right?

Only their champion doesn’t participate.

(11-11-2018 04:05 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Only their champion doesn’t participate.

Ah yes, that's right. Well I certainly don't see an at-large for the MEAC this year so that opens up another spot

Edit: Unless NC A&T somehow doesn't wind up as the champ, they might get an at-large

I feel pretty confident that we locked up a playoff spot with the URI win. I also think if we win next week we're looking at a low seed. Lose and we're in the first round.

(11-11-2018 04:11 PM)s2dsayer Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 04:05 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Only their champion doesn’t participate.

Ah yes, that's right. Well I certainly don't see an at-large for the MEAC this year so that opens up another spot

Edit: Unless NC A&T somehow doesn't wind up as the champ, they might get an at-large

If FAMU beats Bethune Cookman I believe FAMU wins the MEAC and goes to the Celebration Bowl vs the SWAC champ. That would leave a 9-2 NC A&T (lost to FAMU) eligible for an at large bid. With wins over JSU & ECU NC A&T will likely get an at large, deserving or not..
http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta..._/view/fcs

http://www.nobowls.com bracketology is calling:

CAA (6) regardless of who wins/loses. Has a rational argument for this.
Personally I have a hard time seeing Elon in the field at 6-4
Big Sky (4)
MVFC (3)
OVC(2)
SoCon (2)
Indy (1) UND
Big South(1)
Southland (1)
Pioneer (1)
Patriot (1)
NEC (1)
MEAC (1)

This site isn't perfect, and I sometimes question the seeds, but they do tend to get the participants mostly correct.

(11-11-2018 08:55 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 04:11 PM)s2dsayer Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 04:05 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Only their champion doesn’t participate.

Ah yes, that's right. Well I certainly don't see an at-large for the MEAC this year so that opens up another spot

Edit: Unless NC A&T somehow doesn't wind up as the champ, they might get an at-large

If FAMU beats Bethune Cookman I believe FAMU wins the MEAC and goes to the Celebration Bowl vs the SWAC champ. That would leave a 9-2 NC A&T (lost to FAMU) eligible for an at large bid. With wins over JSU & ECU NC A&T will likely get an at large, deserving or not..
http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta..._/view/fcs

Why wouldn’t NC A&T be deserving if they finish 9-2 including wins over Jacksonville State and FBS East Carolina?
Of course they are deserving.

(11-11-2018 01:21 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  McFeely in article with MFVC committee rep, says MFVC may get as few as 2 bids this year:

https://www.jamestownsun.com/sports/foot...s-are-mess

I believe 3 for MVFC is likely, IF Indiana St beats WIU.

Sam Herder points out that Indiana St. will have at most 6 Div I wins. If they lose to WIU, they would only have 5 D1 wins.
https://herosports.com/fcs/football-mvfc...-2018-bzbz

Thanks for those articles. Interesting....except I don't see us getting that high of a seed...as mentioned in the first article.