Athlon has the Dukes #3 this week; #4 in STATS; #5 in the Coaches Poll

Elon dropped to #10, #11, and #11 respectively in those same polls.

Towson up to #9, #13, and #14.

Stony Brook #17, #18, and #17

You know that anyone who has anything to do with the best interests of FCS football will want us to be #2 if NDSU is still #1. It is financially in their best interest. They want a rematch in Frisco.

(10-16-2018 04:34 PM)BSKB 24 Wrote:  You know that anyone who has anything to do with the best interests of FCS football will want us to be #2 if NDSU is still #1. It is financially in their best interest. They want a rematch in Frisco.

Well, #2, #3, #6 or #7 all put us on the other side of the bracket from a #1 NDSU.

I could see them putting us at #3 eventually and making us travel to SDSU for that rematch.

(10-16-2018 04:56 PM)chicagoduke Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 04:34 PM)BSKB 24 Wrote:  You know that anyone who has anything to do with the best interests of FCS football will want us to be #2 if NDSU is still #1. It is financially in their best interest. They want a rematch in Frisco.

Well, #2, #3, #6 or #7 all put us on the other side of the bracket from a #1 NDSU.

I could see them putting us at #3 eventually and making us travel to SDSU for that rematch.

#2 increases the odds of us getting there. Nothing like home field advantage.

(10-16-2018 04:56 PM)chicagoduke Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 04:34 PM)BSKB 24 Wrote:  You know that anyone who has anything to do with the best interests of FCS football will want us to be #2 if NDSU is still #1. It is financially in their best interest. They want a rematch in Frisco.

Well, #2, #3, #6 or #7 all put us on the other side of the bracket from a #1 NDSU.

I could see them putting us at #3 eventually and making us travel to SDSU for that rematch.

Not saying it's impossible, but that would be very wrong if both teams win out.

1) SDSU did not face an FBS team, and both have 1 FCS loss. FBS losses are tossed out.
2) Giving one conference both the 1 and 2 seeds is bad, particularly when some indicators/metrics suggest the CAA is stronger this year than MVFC.

In the end, this really comes down to the committee, their regional advisory rankings, and the SRS ratings. The public polls just don't matter beyond whatever psychological effect they may have on the ADs.

Because the NCAA views this as a "regional" with 4 top seeds, I'm inclined to believe they will not give the top 2 seeds to one region/conference. No proof of this beyond how I believe they operate based on the guidelines and structures in place.

(10-16-2018 05:09 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 04:56 PM)chicagoduke Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 04:34 PM)BSKB 24 Wrote:  You know that anyone who has anything to do with the best interests of FCS football will want us to be #2 if NDSU is still #1. It is financially in their best interest. They want a rematch in Frisco.

Well, #2, #3, #6 or #7 all put us on the other side of the bracket from a #1 NDSU.

I could see them putting us at #3 eventually and making us travel to SDSU for that rematch.

Not saying it's impossible, but that would be very wrong if both teams win out.

1) SDSU did not face an FBS team, and both have 1 FCS loss. FBS losses are tossed out.
2) Giving one conference both the 1 and 2 seeds is bad, particularly when some indicators/metrics suggest the CAA is stronger this year than MVFC.

In the end, this really comes down to the committee, their regional advisory rankings, and the SRS ratings. The public polls just don't matter beyond whatever psychological effect they may have on the ADs.

Because the NCAA views this as a "regional" with 4 top seeds, I'm inclined to believe they will not give the top 2 seeds to one region/conference. No proof of this beyond how I believe they operate based on the guidelines and structures in place.

Yep. Like I said in the other thread, #1 NDSU, #2 SDSU, #3 JMU is highly unlikely. Much more likely if all 3 won out would be flipping JMU & SDSU, and possibly JMU #3 & SDSU #4...

SDSU will lose another game.

If we win out, we’ll have a great shot a 2 seed.

(10-16-2018 05:42 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  SDSU will lose another game.

If we win out, we’ll have a great shot a 2 seed.

I think SDSU drops a game also. The Bison still have a couple of games that they could lose - Ill. State this weekend and Mo State three weeks later. Ill. State has an FBS win and has lost only one game.... to Mo State.

Ndsu’s lone remaining challenge is this weekend against Illinois state. If and when they beat them, they will finish 11-0 pending a huge upset to a bottom dwelling team.

SDSU’s toughest games remain for the most part. You can almost guarantee they’ll drop at least one game, maybe two.

In my humble opinion, all the NCAA needs is for one or the other to make it to the final game and they're smiling. Had the stadium held the same number of people in 2016 as it did in 2017 it would have been just as full both years. The NCAA is in a pickle, with NDSU and JMU in Frisco they could sell 30k tickets, with JMU or NDSU (but not both), 20k is about the right size, should the game host Maine and Weber I'm not sure 10K would attend. Weber State just hosted their biggest game of the season and it was Homecoming with 8200 attending the game.

(10-16-2018 11:05 PM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  In my humble opinion, all the NCAA needs is for one or the other to make it to the final game and they're smiling. Had the stadium held the same number of people in 2016 as it did in 2017 it would have been just as full both years. The NCAA is in a pickle, with NDSU and JMU in Frisco they could sell 30k tickets, with JMU or NDSU (but not both), 20k is about the right size, should the game host Maine and Weber I'm not sure 10K would attend. Weber State just hosted their biggest game of the season and it was Homecoming with 8200 attending the game.

They should consider AT&T Stadium. Jerry Jones would never turn down the opportunity to make a buck. Very impressive operation and seats 80,000.

I took the VIP tour of the stadium, locker rooms, Jerry's suite, and all. They can hold a concert there on Saturday and have the field ready for a Cowboy's kickoff at noon, Sunday.

With just 20K seating, if the Bison and Dukes wind up there again together, the ticket prices are going to be crazy again.

(10-16-2018 07:17 PM)Potomac Wrote:  Ndsu’s lone remaining challenge is this weekend against Illinois state. If and when they beat them, they will finish 11-0 pending a huge upset to a bottom dwelling team.

SDSU’s toughest games remain for the most part. You can almost guarantee they’ll drop at least one game, maybe two.

Don't discount Mo State. Ill. State is obviously pretty good. However, the only team they have lost to is Mo State. And Mo State's game against the Bison is in Missouri. Ill. State has to play in Fargodome this weekend.

Just saying that NDSU has another game coming up that they could lose.

(10-16-2018 11:39 PM)Purple Wrote:  They should consider AT&T Stadium. Jerry Jones would never turn down the opportunity to make a buck. Very impressive operation and seats 80,000.

I've heard the Statue of Liberty could fit in there. Eeeeeasily.

Eeeeeeeeeeeasy

(10-16-2018 05:09 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 04:56 PM)chicagoduke Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 04:34 PM)BSKB 24 Wrote:  You know that anyone who has anything to do with the best interests of FCS football will want us to be #2 if NDSU is still #1. It is financially in their best interest. They want a rematch in Frisco.

Well, #2, #3, #6 or #7 all put us on the other side of the bracket from a #1 NDSU.

I could see them putting us at #3 eventually and making us travel to SDSU for that rematch.

Not saying it's impossible, but that would be very wrong if both teams win out.

1) SDSU did not face an FBS team, and both have 1 FCS loss. FBS losses are tossed out.
2) Giving one conference both the 1 and 2 seeds is bad, particularly when some indicators/metrics suggest the CAA is stronger this year than MVFC.

In the end, this really comes down to the committee, their regional advisory rankings, and the SRS ratings. The public polls just don't matter beyond whatever psychological effect they may have on the ADs.

Because the NCAA views this as a "regional" with 4 top seeds, I'm inclined to believe they will not give the top 2 seeds to one region/conference. No proof of this beyond how I believe they operate based on the guidelines and structures in place.

The Sagarin has the MVFC 7.17 better than the CAA. That's a smaller gap than the 10.05 last year. It's a bigger gap than the 5.61 between the best (SEC) and worst (ACC) P5 conferences. I think you'll get a better seed than SDSU if you both win out. Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State is an out of conference game the last day that gives those two 1 loss teams a chance to make their final case, but both of them have very weak schedules. Kennesaw State won the Big South last year, and the Committee didn't mind the Big South being worse than other conferences and gave Monmouth an at-large bid with the 44th best Sagarin in FCS. They lost 46-7 at Northern Iowa.

Not worthy of a thread of its own, so thought I'd throw this in here...

Bye Week Obscure Statistic
The Dukes have pitched 3 shutouts this season to date. Only once in school history has a JMU squad held 3 opponents to donuts on the scoreboard and that was in 1975. One more shutout and this 2018 team sets a new standard. Of course, if they want to, the Good Guys can feel free to throw 8 more scoreless games. No permission needed.

(10-17-2018 01:15 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 05:09 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 04:56 PM)chicagoduke Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 04:34 PM)BSKB 24 Wrote:  You know that anyone who has anything to do with the best interests of FCS football will want us to be #2 if NDSU is still #1. It is financially in their best interest. They want a rematch in Frisco.

Well, #2, #3, #6 or #7 all put us on the other side of the bracket from a #1 NDSU.

I could see them putting us at #3 eventually and making us travel to SDSU for that rematch.

Not saying it's impossible, but that would be very wrong if both teams win out.

1) SDSU did not face an FBS team, and both have 1 FCS loss. FBS losses are tossed out.
2) Giving one conference both the 1 and 2 seeds is bad, particularly when some indicators/metrics suggest the CAA is stronger this year than MVFC.

In the end, this really comes down to the committee, their regional advisory rankings, and the SRS ratings. The public polls just don't matter beyond whatever psychological effect they may have on the ADs.

Because the NCAA views this as a "regional" with 4 top seeds, I'm inclined to believe they will not give the top 2 seeds to one region/conference. No proof of this beyond how I believe they operate based on the guidelines and structures in place.

The Sagarin has the MVFC 7.17 better than the CAA. That's a smaller gap than the 10.05 last year. It's a bigger gap than the 5.61 between the best (SEC) and worst (ACC) P5 conferences. I think you'll get a better seed than SDSU if you both win out. Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State is an out of conference game the last day that gives those two 1 loss teams a chance to make their final case, but both of them have very weak schedules. Kennesaw State won the Big South last year, and the Committee didn't mind the Big South being worse than other conferences and gave Monmouth an at-large bid with the 44th best Sagarin in FCS. They lost 46-7 at Northern Iowa.

Sagarin is 100% irrelevant to the committee.

The selection rules state that the only metrics they use/reference are the NCAA SRS rating and associated SOS metric. They are also not bound to the SRS rating, it is simply one data point they may use in their evaluation. No other outside polls or computer ratings are considered.

Another team to watch is UCD, the last undefeated vs I-AA in thr Big Sky. Throwing out their P5 loss to Stanford, they are 5-0/3-0. If they win out, they would finish 10-0/8-0, 3-0 vs likely playoffs (San Diego OOC, ID State (who they just beat in OT), EWU) + a G5 win (SJSU) & would likely be seeded ahead of JMU. They have left:
-@ PSU
-@ MT (who will be coming off a bye but has lost the last 2 straight, including being destroyed last week @ N Dakota)
-NAU
-@ EWU (apparently has been hit by a lot of injuries, Gebrud still out).
-Sac State

Also hopefully ETSU (the last undefeated vs I-AA in the So-Con) loses @ Wofford on Sat...

(10-17-2018 09:04 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Another team to watch is UCD, the last undefeated vs I-AA in thr Big Sky. Throwing out their P5 loss to Stanford, they are 5-0/3-0. If they win out, they would finish 10-0/8-0, 3-0 vs likely playoffs (San Diego OOC, ID State (who they just beat in OT), EWU) + a G5 win (SJSU) & would likely be seeded ahead of JMU. They have left:
-@ PSU
-@ MT (who will be coming off a bye but has lost the last 2 straight, including being destroyed last week @ N Dakota)
-NAU
-@ EWU (apparently has been hit by a lot of injuries, Gebrud still out).
-Sac State

Also hopefully ETSU (the last undefeated vs I-AA in the So-Con) loses @ Wofford on Sat...

Yeah, been watching UCD. Only EWU stands in the way of them going undefeated in FCS.

(10-17-2018 01:26 PM)Wear Purple Wrote:  Not worthy of a thread of its own, so thought I'd throw this in here...

Bye Week Obscure Statistic
The Dukes have pitched 3 shutouts this season to date. Only once in school history has a JMU squad held 3 opponents to donuts on the scoreboard and that was in 1975. One more shutout and this 2018 team sets a new standard. Of course, if they want to, the Good Guys can feel free to throw 8 more scoreless games. No permission needed.

Gosh I hope that's a stat the defensive coaches are pitching in the Locker room. Shut out everybody. That should be the goal every game right? You win if your opponent scores 0*