The idea of Texas and Kansas as a pair to the SEC has been one of the more interesting rumors the last couple of years.
I'm not sure where it originated, but it makes me think it's not just a theory on a message board.
I don't know if I've ever talked about this, but in the early 2000s I read an article about Missouri being displeased with the Big 12. They wanted out and apparently had an eye on the SEC. I didn't think much of it at the time although I found the notion interesting. Low and behold, about 10 years later it actually happened.
When people started suggesting Mizzou as an expansion target last time around, I did think it was unusual, but I knew it wasn't the first time I had heard it. Where did I hear it before? The Tuscaloosa News and I'm pretty sure it was written by Cecil Hurt although it could have been another writer from the time.
I don't have any idea why the Tuscaloosa News would have printed an article on that subject, but I remember it like it was yesterday. I've searched desperately for that article in online archives and could not find a thing. I even emailed Cecil Hurt about it once and he didn't remember writing it. It might not have even been the subject of the article, but rather a blurb within it. I'm not sure on that part. Promise I'm not making it up though...
Anyway, it occurred to me one day that a lot of these decisions are explored and planned well in advance. The people making these decisions don't tend to make snap judgements.
So that brings me back to the idea of Texas and Kansas to the SEC circulating for a while.
1. We know Kansas has committed $300 million to improvements including some premium seating that seems quite odd with what we know about KU football. I mean, that's an awful lot of money to drop on a hail mary.
2. Jeff Long joining the team over there makes me think they have a nice long term vision. He's well respected and accomplished. I don't think he would have taken a job like that if they were bound for the American...just my take.
3. We know that the SEC is on their wish list based on the ESPN article a few years back that had a blurb quoting an unnamed KU official.
4. ESPN loves Kansas basketball so much they went to the trouble of signing a 3rd Tier deal with them. The easiest place to store that product is in the SEC and I contend that if ESPN wants that product bad enough then they'll pay for it.
5. Kansas is one of the very few schools that fits Sankey's stated vision for expansion. He said the next expansion will be very similar to the last one. He mentioned new states(border states) and AAU schools specifically.
We already know why Texas makes sense. The only question seems to be over whether or not they pull the trigger. As JR has laid out, however, there's really no good reason for them to go elsewhere.
1. If Texas really wanted to go to the PAC then they would have bolted last time. All UT had to do was drop their demand for Baylor and the deal would have happened. As it stands, the PAC probably can't ever pay enough to make it worth the while.
2. The Big Ten is not really a reasonable option either. The travel would be very tough and without any of the perks of getting exposure in growing Western markets. They'd get plenty of money out of the deal, but the B1G needs a school like Texas a lot more than Texas needs the B1G.
3. The ACC doesn't make a lot of sense in part because the money doesn't make sense. The travel would also be tough and it's not really an institutional fit. UT is a large state flagship with a football first athletic program. The ACC needs schools like that, but it wouldn't do much for Texas.
So why does the SEC make sense? Other than the obvious, there are some reasons it works best for what UT is looking for.
1. The SEC is in a lot better position than it was 20 or 30 years ago. In fact, the league is at its height of prestige and because of demographic trends, it's only going to grow.
2. It's not just that the money would be huge, the savings in travel costs alone would probably be a few million a year.
3. The LHN and the BTN are not going to mesh because ESPN and FOX are not going to mesh. At that, I think there's a lot more potential for using a property like the LHN in conjunction with the SEC than with any other league. I don't see the LHN being discontinued because ESPN has fought hard to get it carriage. The only problem with the channel is lack of content and low sub fees. Those sorts of things could be remedied with the right approach. If a 16 team SEC had access to 2 linear channels then there are ways to take advantage of that and generate additional funds.
4. The academic angle isn't overplayed, it's just silly. For one, UT has fought to keep the Big 12 together and that league has never been a paragon of academic excellence. More to the point, if the CIC or whatever they are calling it nowadays was of real material value then the Big Ten wouldn't have athletic affiliation as a prerequisite for membership. Wouldn't it be very strange of an academic first conference to want your football team in the fold before allowing you into a consortium? There's no reason for CIC membership to be linked with Big Ten membership other than that's just the way they want to do it. At that, schools like Chicago wouldn't have bailed out and schools like Johns Hopkins would have actually joined. I'm sure the CIC provides some usefulness or they wouldn't bother with it, but it's obviously not a tool one would base long term decisions on. There are far more valuable academic affiliations to be had. The AAU is one of them and Texas already has that.