(04-23-2018 12:31 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote: (04-23-2018 12:22 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (04-23-2018 11:16 AM)thespiritof1976 Wrote: 8-5 and they beat Notre Dame. Heard it here first.
Wait a second - you say we beat ND, but lose five others? Which?
Since we're talking about Connelly's projection, all those we're below 50% win probability, maybe? That would be 3-5 in conference and a couple losses that I just don't see...
Because, IMO at least, Notre Dame (much like the CFP) is a media creation. In reality, they are a middling 7-5 ACC team.
I think this assessment underestimates ND a little, but not too much. To be clear, my point wasn't that if we beat ND, ZOMG, that will mean we're good enough to beat everyone else!!1!
No, if we beat ND it will look a lot like our '16 win over them: play error free Navy football, get just one or two stops, and hold onto the ball at the end.
I'm just asking, if ND isn't one of our losses, where are five? If you look at Bill C's predictions <50%, that includes two shots to avenge a '17 loss at home, and two road games against AAC teams we're 4-0 against.
I don't see us losing all five of @UCF, Memphis, Houston, @Cincy, & @SMU. In fact I see us winning 2-3 of those. 1-1 in the AAC +50% tossups, and we're not at 5 losses yet.
As always, we COULD go 1-12.
But we could go 12-1 or 13-0, too.