Temple is on the Thinnest of ice, and will definitely need help

boise loses to sdsu, eliminating them
bama lost to florida.. putting them still but on ice on ice
miss state losses virtually eliminating them
kstate losses, putting them at risk

Temple MUST WIN against uconn
simply winning will put them "next four out" for most bracketology

games of importance tomorrow

xavier vs providence (b)
syracuse (b) vs boston college

saturday:
- texas (b) vs top 25 wvu ..win and texas is in, lose and they are out
-ND plays top 5 virginia- a loss would eliminate them
- loser of kstate vs baylor is out, winner is in (barring loser has no major upsets in tourney)
- usc vs ucla loser is out
- oregon (nit team) plays bubble team washington (lose and eliminated)
- colorado (nit team) plays bubble team utah (lose and eliminated)
- nebreska must win atleast 1 Big 10 tournament game or they are eliminated

all of these games are saturday...temple plays tulsa sunday..
if a lot of these fall our way...temple could be "in" or close even before it plays tulsa

uconn would be a quadrant 2 win..
tulsa is currently a quadrant 2 but could be a quadrant 1 by selection sunday

If ECU wins the rest of their games, they are in!

(02-28-2018 07:19 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  If ECU wins the rest of their games, they are in!

(02-28-2018 09:56 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 07:19 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  If ECU wins the rest of their games, they are in!

We would be a lock for four bids in that situation. Paint it purple.

Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

(02-28-2018 11:18 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

Not according to TU4Ever Analytics, Inc.

(02-28-2018 11:18 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

Not even close to what the numbers say.

18 solid bubble
19 in 10 seed
20 in 7-9 seed

(02-28-2018 11:23 AM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:18 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

Not even close to what the numbers say.

18 solid bubble
19 in 10 seed
20 in 7-9 seed

I will say, the AAC fan base is the most loyal, positive and rose colored glasses in the NCAA.

(02-28-2018 11:23 AM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:18 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

Not even close to what the numbers say.

18 solid bubble
19 in 10 seed
20 in 7-9 seed

Not a chance. Maybe they get a look at 19, but they don't get in without 20.

I know you are fixated on their RPI and their solid Q1/Q2 record, but those 4 quadrant 3 losses are going to absolutely kill them. Other bubble teams don't have anything close to that.

Finding a way to dodge ECU or USF is important to avoid a 10 spot RPI tank. I know the committee doesn’t really compare RPIs but being in the top 40 would be a nice feather in the cap.

(02-28-2018 11:45 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:23 AM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:18 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

Not even close to what the numbers say.

18 solid bubble
19 in 10 seed
20 in 7-9 seed

Not a chance. Maybe they get a look at 19, but they don't get in without 20.

I know you are fixated on their RPI and their solid Q1/Q2 record, but those 4 quadrant 3 losses are going to absolutely kill them. Other bubble teams don't have anything close to that.

Anything close to that = 2 losses instead of 4

Other bubble teams don’t have anything close to Temple’s solid Q1/Q2 record and the committee has shown over and over again that wins matter a whole lot more than losses.

(02-28-2018 11:45 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:23 AM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:18 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

Not even close to what the numbers say.

18 solid bubble
19 in 10 seed
20 in 7-9 seed

Not a chance. Maybe they get a look at 19, but they don't get in without 20.

I know you are fixated on their RPI and their solid Q1/Q2 record, but those 4 quadrant 3 losses are going to absolutely kill them. Other bubble teams don't have anything close to that.

Totally agree. Focusing SOLELY on 1 or 2 metrics is not how this process works. I don’t even think Temple is on the bubble with 18 wins.

(02-28-2018 11:36 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:23 AM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:18 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

Not even close to what the numbers say.

18 solid bubble
19 in 10 seed
20 in 7-9 seed

I will say, the AAC fan base is the most loyal, positive and rose colored glasses in the NCAA.

i think everyone is thinking its all temple ...but in all honesty 19 or 20 could work depending on how it plays

(19 wins is tulsa, uconn & likely ecu) a 20th win means upsetting top 25 houston

there are about 8/9 or so teams above temple on the bubble....i listed all on top
4 of them are playing each other.. the loser will likely be eliminated...5 of them need HUGE win with unlikely odds (ND, texas, providence, louisville, bama) and everyone else on the bubble except st bonny plays at least 1 nit caliber team

a lot of teams are above temple in the bubble "now" but have little chance of staying there

if the chips fall in the right places 19 will be good enough...note tulsa is rpi 77 right now, away games of rpi 75 or lower are quad 1 wins...Tulsa might end up a quad 1 win by selection Sunday
that is the scenario in which everyone falls below temple

the other scenario is none of the chips fall and needing the 20th win in which temple jumps everyone

Temple still controls on destiny. It just needs to keep winning.

(02-28-2018 11:47 AM)AndShock Wrote:  Finding a way to dodge ECU or USF is important to avoid a 10 spot RPI tank. I know the committee doesn’t really compare RPIs but being in the top 40 would be a nice feather in the cap.

almost impossible at this point if you think temple beats uconn and tulsa

ecu in the first round almost guaranteed

(02-28-2018 11:49 AM)AndShock Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:45 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:23 AM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:18 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

Not even close to what the numbers say.

18 solid bubble
19 in 10 seed
20 in 7-9 seed

Not a chance. Maybe they get a look at 19, but they don't get in without 20.

I know you are fixated on their RPI and their solid Q1/Q2 record, but those 4 quadrant 3 losses are going to absolutely kill them. Other bubble teams don't have anything close to that.

Anything close to that = 2 losses instead of 4

Other bubble teams don’t have anything close to Temple’s solid Q1/Q2 record and the committee has shown over and over again that wins matter a whole lot more than losses.

If recent history shows us anything, AAC schools have not been respected by the committee. Constantly underseeded or simply not even given an invitation. Temple will have to go above and beyond to get an invite over a similarly rated P5 school.

(02-28-2018 12:12 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:47 AM)AndShock Wrote:  Finding a way to dodge ECU or USF is important to avoid a 10 spot RPI tank. I know the committee doesn’t really compare RPIs but being in the top 40 would be a nice feather in the cap.

almost impossible at this point if you think temple beats uconn and tulsa

ecu in the first round almost guaranteed

Who do they get if they lose to Tulsa? Losing to Tulsa would just end up being another Q1 loss which doesn’t change the resume at all. A loss @ Tulsa has almost the same impact on the RPI as a win against Neutral ECU and instead of just neutral ECU you’re adding in a win against a possible Q2? That almost seems worth it.

(02-28-2018 12:16 PM)wavefan12 Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:49 AM)AndShock Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:45 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:23 AM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:18 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  Temple needs 20 wins if they want an at large. I think that will do it, but anything less and I think they are out.

Not even close to what the numbers say.

18 solid bubble
19 in 10 seed
20 in 7-9 seed

Not a chance. Maybe they get a look at 19, but they don't get in without 20.

I know you are fixated on their RPI and their solid Q1/Q2 record, but those 4 quadrant 3 losses are going to absolutely kill them. Other bubble teams don't have anything close to that.

Anything close to that = 2 losses instead of 4

Other bubble teams don’t have anything close to Temple’s solid Q1/Q2 record and the committee has shown over and over again that wins matter a whole lot more than losses.

If recent history shows us anything, AAC schools have not been respected by the committee. Constantly underseeded or simply not even given an invitation. Temple will have to go above and beyond to get an invite over a similarly rated P5 school.

I don’t disagree at all. Temple in a P5 is probably an 8-9 seed right now but instead they’re barely even being talked about. Right now I don’t expect to hear Temple’s name called, but I think their resume is right there.

(02-28-2018 12:12 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(02-28-2018 11:47 AM)AndShock Wrote:  Finding a way to dodge ECU or USF is important to avoid a 10 spot RPI tank. I know the committee doesn’t really compare RPIs but being in the top 40 would be a nice feather in the cap.

almost impossible at this point if you think temple beats uconn and tulsa

ecu in the first round almost guaranteed

Need ECU to beat Tulsa. Unlikely as it is, if that happens Temple sneaks into the 5th seed. That is also the easiest path to 20 wins.

AAC schools though really haven't been disrespected the last 3 years. Had as many teams seeded up vs bracket matrix as there were seeded down.

If Temple gets to 20 wins, they are an easy in. That would be winning both games this week, and then beating ECU and Houston in the conference tourney. Losing to Wichita in the SF. They would be 20-13 with a 32 RPI and 11 SOS. That's an easy lock.