(11-03-2017 05:44 AM)jmuroadwarrior Wrote:  And now onto more important things as JMU announces October 20 as the official 2018 fall season wedding day. When interviewed, JB said: In the ever changing landscape of wedding planning, we try to give a full years notice on the official date for weddings. I am looking forward to attending a fall wedding this year. Go Dukes!

See I view this early schedule release as a huge advantage to wedding planners across Virginia. Now they know the 11 weekends they will intentionally schedule a wedding on.

(11-03-2017 06:08 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(11-03-2017 05:44 AM)jmuroadwarrior Wrote:  And now onto more important things as JMU announces October 20 as the official 2018 fall season wedding day. When interviewed, JB said: In the ever changing landscape of wedding planning, we try to give a full years notice on the official date for weddings. I am looking forward to attending a fall wedding this year. Go Dukes!

See I view this early schedule release as a huge advantage to wedding planners across Virginia. Now they know the 11 weekends they will intentionally schedule a wedding on.

Funny, but dang if it doesn't seem true.

The UNC game in 2020 will be a late season game. Scheduled for Nov 21 @ $500,000.
http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/02/north...ison-2020/

(02-22-2018 06:27 AM)JmuDukes4Life Wrote:  The UNC game in 2020 will be a late season game. Scheduled for Nov 21 @ $500,000.
http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/02/north...ison-2020/

The Holes like to either have a bye or a FCS game before they finish the season against NC State. It hasn't helped them 3 out of the last 4 seasons though.

I assume those stadium renovations will be done by then. Bonus for having a late-season FBS game @ UNC is we don't have to deal with the surface of the sun temperatures on the visitor sideline quite as much.

awful news.

right or wrong, reality is, you get penalized more for a late season loss than you do an early season loss.

an L in that game could cost us a seeding place in the playoffs.

I don't give the committee any credit for overlooking that sort of thing and ignoring it. We will get punished if we lose.

(02-22-2018 01:00 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  awful news.

right or wrong, reality is, you get penalized more for a late season loss than you do an early season loss.

an L in that game could cost us a seeding place in the playoffs.

I don't give the committee any credit for overlooking that sort of thing and ignoring it. We will get punished if we lose.

Yep and you just don't want a likely loss hurting any moment going into the playoffs.

what's all this losing talk about?

(02-22-2018 01:15 PM)Potomac Wrote:  

(02-22-2018 01:00 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  awful news.

right or wrong, reality is, you get penalized more for a late season loss than you do an early season loss.

an L in that game could cost us a seeding place in the playoffs.

I don't give the committee any credit for overlooking that sort of thing and ignoring it. We will get punished if we lose.

Yep and you just don't want a likely loss hurting any moment going into the playoffs.

Ahhhh, screw it/them. Go down to Cheaterville and kick their assets. A win will potentially bump us up a seed or two. Plus, will be a great way to finish off another undefeated regular season.

P5 FBS losses almost never move a team down in the polls.

(02-22-2018 01:00 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  awful news.

right or wrong, reality is, you get penalized more for a late season loss than you do an early season loss.

an L in that game could cost us a seeding place in the playoffs.

I don't give the committee any credit for overlooking that sort of thing and ignoring it. We will get punished if we lose.

Not awful news at all. You might get penalized more for a late season loss to a I-AA. But to a P5 I don't buy it making much of a difference with the loss at the beginning, middle, or the end of the season. The Committee has stated they ignore I-A losses and the evidence backs that up as far as late season.

This past season Wofford lost @ S Carolina 31-10 in the last game of the regular season to finish 9-2/7-1 and got the #7 seed. They were 1-1 vs playoff teams, with 4 wins by 1 to 4 points, + 2 more OT wins. And some of those were vs bad teams. Remember SHSU was seeded #6 (10-1/8-1, 1-1 vs playoff). If the Wofford had lost @ SC earlier in the season I don't think it would have made a difference.

2016 an undefeated Citadel lost @ UNC 41-7 to finish 10-1/8-0, and got the #6 seed. The top 6 seeds were:
1. NDSU (10-1/7-1)
2. EWU 10-1/8-0) (P5 win, loss in OT @ NDSU)
3. JSU 10-1/8-0 (loss @ LSU early 34-13, JSU was in NC game 2015)
4. JMU (10-1/8-0)
5. SHSU (11-0/9-0) (No I-A, Div II, 1-0 vs playoff, ranked #1 in the polls)).
6. Citadel (10-1/8-0) (3-0 vs playoff)
If the Citadel had lost @ UNC in Sept like JMU I don't think it would have made a difference.

2015 CSU lost to Bama 56-6 in their last regular season game to finish 9-2. Other loss was @ Troy early 44-16. 2 wins over playoff teams, @ The Citadel & CCU. But the rest of their schedule was WEAK. Beat a Div II, ETSU in their 1st year back, Kennesaw in their 1st season, & 4 other Big South teams, the only 1 with a winning record Liberty at 6-5. CSU got the #8 seed. RU got the #7 at 8-3/6-2, and PSU got the #6 at 9-2/6-2 with a P5 & Div II wins. JMU was the #5 seed. If CSU had lost to Bama early in the season I don't think it would have made any difference in their seeding.

2012 GSU lost to #5 UGA 45-14 in the last regular season game to finish 8-3/6-2, yet still managed to be seeded #5. If GSU had lost to UGA early in the season I don't think it would have been seeded any higher. Anyone ever seen a 8-3 with 2 I-AA losses seeded top 4?

2011 GSU lost to Bama 45-21 in the last regular season game, making them 9-2/7-1, and they were still the #3 seed, behind an undefeated SHSU and a 10-1 NDSU. Were ahead of a 9-2/7-1 Montana who also had an SEC (Tenn) loss. If GSU had lost to Bama early in the season I don't think it would have made any difference in their seeding.

(02-22-2018 02:58 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  P5 FBS losses almost never move a team down in the polls.

It has made the difference in teams shifting in the seedings. There have been examples of it in the recent past.

Prior 5 seed drops to a 6 seed after losing to P5 in final week. Prior 6 seed becomes 5 seed when they played a conference cupcake the same week.

BDK you did a lot of research there but failed to provide the only metrics that really matter. What were these teams ranked prior to the FBS loss and what were they ranked after the loss? And with that point, what did the other teams ranked around them do that week? The rest of the schedule for the year doesn't matter if the discussion is how a FBS loss impacts a team late in the season.

It looks like Wofford was #7 prior to the USC loss and #7 after as well. I have no idea what the 6th or the 8th place team did (as I have no idea who they were or how to find that out) but if the #6 loss to a FCS team and Wofford didn't jump up a spot, then the FBS loss obviously had an impact.

In 2015, what was Citadels ranking prior to the FBS loss and after? Did Citadel get jumped because a team below them beat a great team or did Citadel fall because they loss to a FBS? Or did they stay the same because the loss didn't have an impact.

Also doesn't the committee consider sagarin ratings in the selection? If so, a late season loss (no matter who the opponent) is going to drop your ranking 99% of the time.

a drop in seed from 4 to a 5 puts you on the road in the quarterfinals.

small margins can make a big difference.

https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files...170914.pdf

NCAA SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM (NCAA SRS)
The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will use the NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) as a tool for
evaluating teams for selection into the 24-team championship.
The NCAA SRS is a ranking system used to gauge team quality. Within the NCAA SRS, the rating of a team will be calculated
largely by two components: a strength-of-schedule measure (SOS) and a win-loss differential (WL).
A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.
A team’s WL measure factors whether a game was won or lost; the location of the game (home/away/neutral site); and the
NCAA (sub)division of the opponent.
1. In a game between two FCS teams played at a neutral site, the winning team gets one point and the losing team loses
one point.
2. In a game between two FCS teams played at a non-neutral site, a home win counts 0.75 for the home team and -0.75 for
the losing team. A road team win counts 1.25 for the visiting team and -1.25 for the home team. In other words, there
is a bonus/penalty of +/- 0.25 for the home/away teams depending on the outcome.
3. An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I
opponents. For instance, a home FCS win against a Division II opponent counts only as +0.65 points (0.75 for a home
win - 0.1 penalty for playing a Division II opponent). In addition, a road FCS win against an FBS opponent counts +1.35
points for the FCS team (1.25 points for a road win + 0.1 bonus for beating an FBS opponent).
4. The WL measure is then doubled to equalize the contributions of the WL factor and SOS factor toward a team’s NCAA
SRS rating.
5. Margin of victory will be factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating. This component is capped at 21 points.
The teams’ ratings are independent in that one team’s rating depends on its opponents’ ratings, which depend on their
opponents’ ratings, etc., based on the “network” of college football games played each week during the football season. The
NCAA SRS will also standardize the data in order to equalize the variance in total number of games played (i.e., 11 or 12
regular-season games).
Games against Division III or non-NCAA opponents are not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.
The time of the season in which a game is played (early-season versus late-season games) is also not factored into a team’s
NCAA SRS rating.
The NCAA SRS will not “force select” any teams into the championship; rather, it is one of several resources that
the Division I Football Championship Committee will have at its disposal when debating the merits of teams under
consideration for championship selection.
The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will begin reviewing NCAA SRS data during the later portion of the
football season as it prepares for championship selections. At that time, NCAA SRS rankings may also be posted on the
NCAA website (http://www.ncaa.com/fcs).

Key Note:
The time of the season in which a game is played (early-season versus late-season games) is also not factored into a team’s
NCAA SRS rating

RE: my previous post. Losing to UNC would still be a loss and would have an impact on JMU's SRS compared to their SRS in the previous week... but it would be the same impact they would have felt if they had played UNC and lost earlier in the season. An impact of -0.65 in the SRS would be felt no matter what week they would lose to UNC.

Overall, I cannot and will not say that a blowout loss to UNC won't affect a seeding decision beyond what the SRS impact would suggest (-0.65), of course it might make an additional impact because the committee weighs more than SRS when deciding on participants/seeding for the championship. On the flip side a close loss or any win might positively impact a seeding decision beyond what the SRS impact would suggest (+1.35). If JMU was to go out and lose by whatever they are roughly expected to lose by (Vegas/Sags) then I dont think they are looking at any real impact to seeding beyond what the SRS builds in.

JMU just has to show up for their business trip and do their job... and hope the ACC schedule has taken its toll on UNC (via wear/tear or outright injuries) more than the CAA schedule on JMU.

RE: previous posts...
Mike Houston is known to tell his players in pre-game speeches that the team is built for big late season games. This would certainly be one.

Just throwing this out there... maybe UNC will be a top ranked team at FBS and JMU will be highly ranked at FCS and ESPN will want to get involved (Gameday, TV coverage, etc)... thats definitely something that can only occur in November and not August. In general I believe the November FBS/FCS games do get a little more attention than their early season counterparts since they tend to stand out from the crowd a little bit.

(02-22-2018 03:18 PM)Potomac Wrote:  

(02-22-2018 02:58 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  P5 FBS losses almost never move a team down in the polls.

It has made the difference in teams shifting in the seedings. There have been examples of it in the recent past.

Prior 5 seed drops to a 6 seed after losing to P5 in final week. Prior 6 seed becomes 5 seed when they played a conference cupcake the same week.

What do you mean by ‘prior’ seed? What teams and when are you talking about?

(02-22-2018 04:11 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  BDK you did a lot of research there but failed to provide the only metrics that really matter. What were these teams ranked prior to the FBS loss and what were they ranked after the loss? And with that point, what did the other teams ranked around them do that week? The rest of the schedule for the year doesn't matter if the discussion is how a FBS loss impacts a team late in the season.

It looks like Wofford was #7 prior to the USC loss and #7 after as well. I have no idea what the 6th or the 8th place team did (as I have no idea who they were or how to find that out) but if the #6 loss to a FCS team and Wofford didn't jump up a spot, then the FBS loss obviously had an impact.

In 2015, what was Citadels ranking prior to the FBS loss and after? Did Citadel get jumped because a team below them beat a great team or did Citadel fall because they loss to a FBS? Or did they stay the same because the loss didn't have an impact.

Also doesn't the committee consider sagarin ratings in the selection? If so, a late season loss (no matter who the opponent) is going to drop your ranking 99% of the time.

If you’re referring to the 2 main polls that doesn’t matter.
-One the committee has stated they look at them, but they obviously don’t set the field by the polls. Every year the seeds are different than the polls. Ex 2016 Soft Houston was #1 in the polls but a #5 seed.
-Secondly, the last regular season polls are out after the week 11 games, before the week 12 games are played. The playoff committee sets the field on the Sat night after the week 12 games are played. There are no updated week polls at that point. The next polls I don’t think even come out until Jan after the NC game. So if you lose a P5 game week 12, it won’t be reflected in the weekly polls until after the season is over.

If you were referring to the playoff committee SRS, that doesn’t matter- IA losses aren’t factored in.

If they do look at the Sagarin, the Sagarin isn’t updated for the last weekend before the field is set late Sat night.

The only updated rankings for week 12 the committee might have when setting the field right after the last games are played that Sat night is the SRS, and again I-A losses don’t get factored in..

If anything it would be beneficial to have the P5 loss in week 12 as opposed to in Sept..

I prefer a late season game with a worthy opponent. Some of you homers have turned totally negative. Where's Cent when you need him??? He'll have us crushing the "Heels" with their coach calling for the 55 minute rule to be applied.