This was only a 12 point swing for the Dems. A liberal organizer and attorney defeated the son of a very wealthy congressman in a race in Sarasota.

https://www.vox.com/2018/2/13/17010368/f...garet-good

Unlike some of the upsets, this race featured high voter turnout too.

LOL on the article too. The GOP is so scared of special elections that some of them are simply leaving open Republican seats vacant rather than risk them going to the voters.

Can’t wait til dems take back the House and senate. Lots of things are going to change when the power goes back to people who actually care about this country.

What happened last time ya'll were positive of a sure thing?
You think the sitting Dems will overcome not applauding accomplishments, voting against tax cuts that are helping their constituents so they don't have to pay extra, and shut down the government for "Dreamers"? Aerosmith said it best. Dream on.

(02-13-2018 10:25 PM)gdunn Wrote:  What happened last time ya'll were positive of a sure thing?
You think the sitting Dems will overcome not applauding accomplishments, voting against tax cuts that are helping their constituents so they don't have to pay extra, and shut down the government for "Dreamers"? Aerosmith said it best. Dream on.

Given the needle the Democrats have to thread, taking the Senate will be a long shot. They’ve got a real chance in the House, though.

(02-13-2018 10:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  This was only a 12 point swing for the Dems. A liberal organizer and attorney defeated the son of a very wealthy congressman in a race in Sarasota.

https://www.vox.com/2018/2/13/17010368/f...garet-good

Unlike some of the upsets, this race featured high voter turnout too.

LOL on the article too. The GOP is so scared of special elections that some of them are simply leaving open Republican seats vacant rather than risk them going to the voters.

a 9 month term in a state where repulicans virtually hold a supermajority with a libertarian splitting the GOP vote. i hope yall didnt spend all your money there. how much did california send? meaningless.

W

(02-13-2018 10:42 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  This was only a 12 point swing for the Dems. A liberal organizer and attorney defeated the son of a very wealthy congressman in a race in Sarasota.

https://www.vox.com/2018/2/13/17010368/f...garet-good

Unlike some of the upsets, this race featured high voter turnout too.

LOL on the article too. The GOP is so scared of special elections that some of them are simply leaving open Republican seats vacant rather than risk them going to the voters.

a 9 month term in a state where repulicans virtually hold a supermajority with a libertarian splitting the GOP vote. i hope yall didnt spend all your money there. how much did california send? meaningless.

We probably spent less than the GOP, once the interest group money is factored in. This was a pretty good trial run for both parties, and they spent accordingly.

The more you look at this race, the worse it looks for the GOP.

1) No particular scandal for the candidates
2) GOP candidate was much better known
3) National leaders came to campaign for both sides
4) The district actually has a significant Republican voter registration advantage
5) Turnout was actually high for a special election
6) The predominant electorate profile in this district is white and older than average.

Another part time job lol.

1,020-something to go, lol.

If you want legitimate commentary on the midterms, take it from someone that got basically everything right in 2016, unlike tom, that got everything wrong.

In before the mass, alt-left triggering.

(02-13-2018 10:22 PM)Tulanefan32 Wrote:  Can’t wait til dems take back the House and senate. Lots of things are going to change when the power goes back to people who actually care about this country.

I bet that doesn't happen.

(02-13-2018 10:41 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:25 PM)gdunn Wrote:  What happened last time ya'll were positive of a sure thing?
You think the sitting Dems will overcome not applauding accomplishments, voting against tax cuts that are helping their constituents so they don't have to pay extra, and shut down the government for "Dreamers"? Aerosmith said it best. Dream on.

Given the needle the Democrats have to thread, taking the Senate will be a long shot. They’ve got a real chance in the House, though.

A 46 seat swing in 2018?

A don't think there is any chance of that at all right now.

(02-13-2018 11:38 PM)Kronke Wrote:  1,020-something to go, lol.

If you want legitimate commentary on the midterms, take it from someone that got basically everything right in 2016, unlike tom, that got everything wrong.

In before the mass, alt-left triggering.

That guy is an open satanist. I've had some interactions with him personally.

Just sayin

I'm totally with you on your point though.

(02-14-2018 01:08 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  That guy is an open satanist. I've had some interactions with him personally.

Just sayin

He left it in 2017. I can disavow his religious beliefs, and still enjoy his political commentary, which is top notch. Feel free to go through his back catalog in the run up to the 2016 election. He nailed it all.

Remember, we're the inclusive party.

(02-14-2018 01:16 AM)Kronke Wrote:  

(02-14-2018 01:08 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  That guy is an open satanist. I've had some interactions with him personally.

Just sayin

He left it in 2017. I can disavow his religious beliefs, and still enjoy his political commentary, which is top notch. Feel free to go through his back catalog in the run up to the 2016 election. He nailed it all.

Remember, we're the inclusive party.

That would be welcome news if its so.

I fully agree with the point you were making.

EDIT: I took a peek back at his youtube page, he is still a VERY serious satanist/occultist. He is also pushing a lot of political vids now which is getting him more clicks and subscribers I imagine.

(02-13-2018 10:22 PM)Tulanefan32 Wrote:  Can’t wait til dems take back the House and senate. Lots of things are going to change when the power goes back to people who actually care about this country.

They're going to give you back your SNAP card?

(02-13-2018 11:38 PM)Kronke Wrote:  1,020-something to go, lol.

If you want legitimate commentary on the midterms, take it from someone that got basically everything right in 2016, unlike tom, that got everything wrong.

In before the mass, alt-left triggering.

He's spot on. If he'd cut his hair and put a shirt on he could replace several well known talking heads at Fox News.

(02-14-2018 01:03 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:41 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:25 PM)gdunn Wrote:  What happened last time ya'll were positive of a sure thing?
You think the sitting Dems will overcome not applauding accomplishments, voting against tax cuts that are helping their constituents so they don't have to pay extra, and shut down the government for "Dreamers"? Aerosmith said it best. Dream on.

Given the needle the Democrats have to thread, taking the Senate will be a long shot. They’ve got a real chance in the House, though.

A 46 seat swing in 2018?

A don't think there is any chance of that at all right now.

I think I have a better chance at making it to the MLB, than the democrats have at taking the senate.

P.S.
I have never played baseball in my life.

(02-13-2018 10:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  defeated the son of a very wealthy congressman.

Good.

(02-14-2018 01:03 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:41 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:25 PM)gdunn Wrote:  What happened last time ya'll were positive of a sure thing?
You think the sitting Dems will overcome not applauding accomplishments, voting against tax cuts that are helping their constituents so they don't have to pay extra, and shut down the government for "Dreamers"? Aerosmith said it best. Dream on.

Given the needle the Democrats have to thread, taking the Senate will be a long shot. They’ve got a real chance in the House, though.

A 46 seat swing in 2018?

A don't think there is any chance of that at all right now.

Uh, the Dems don't need 46 seats to take over the House. They need only 24. I think they get around 50 btw.

(02-14-2018 01:17 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-14-2018 01:03 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:41 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:25 PM)gdunn Wrote:  What happened last time ya'll were positive of a sure thing?
You think the sitting Dems will overcome not applauding accomplishments, voting against tax cuts that are helping their constituents so they don't have to pay extra, and shut down the government for "Dreamers"? Aerosmith said it best. Dream on.

Given the needle the Democrats have to thread, taking the Senate will be a long shot. They’ve got a real chance in the House, though.

A 46 seat swing in 2018?

A don't think there is any chance of that at all right now.

Uh, the Dems don't need 46 seats to take over the House. They need only 24. I think they get around 50 btw.

Actually, the Repubs currently have a 45 seat majority in the house.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...sentatives

(02-14-2018 01:25 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(02-14-2018 01:17 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-14-2018 01:03 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:41 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:25 PM)gdunn Wrote:  What happened last time ya'll were positive of a sure thing?
You think the sitting Dems will overcome not applauding accomplishments, voting against tax cuts that are helping their constituents so they don't have to pay extra, and shut down the government for "Dreamers"? Aerosmith said it best. Dream on.

Given the needle the Democrats have to thread, taking the Senate will be a long shot. They’ve got a real chance in the House, though.

A 46 seat swing in 2018?

A don't think there is any chance of that at all right now.

Uh, the Dems don't need 46 seats to take over the House. They need only 24. I think they get around 50 btw.

Actually, the Repubs currently have a 45 seat majority in the house.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...sentatives

OK. How many seats do the Democrats have to flip to take over the House then? 24. There are a few vacancies, so the number is 24.

There are already 20 seats where the GOP is in deep trouble. Beyond those 20 seats, there are 11 seats where Trump lost to Clinton. Beyond that, there are another 20 seats where Trump got less than 50%.

On the Democratic side, there are 2 seats where the Dems are in trouble, there are 10 where Trump beat Clinton, and another 10 where Clinton was under 50%. I don't think the GOP can count on any significant ballot splitting from Clinton voters.

---

And that's before you just add at least 3 seats to the 'desitined to flip' to the Dems on Monday when the courts ungerrymander Pennsylvania.

---

There's a special election for Congress in a GOP held seat coming up in Pennsylvania. It is probably the 100th most likely seat to flip. Election is on March 13th. Trump won it by 20 percent in 2016. He will be going there to campaign. The GOP is probably outspending the Dems.

The GOP will probably hang on there (I'm predicting a 3 or 4 point margin for the GOP), but if they don't.....watch out.

---

Lets just say every Democrat and whole lot of Independents are prepared to crawl over broken glass to vote in November. The story of massive Democratic turnout has been well documented in special elections since 2016. But what isn't being reported is the significant decline in GOP voting. A lot of them have been voting by staying at home.