(01-17-2018 06:45 AM)vandiver49 Wrote: (01-16-2018 09:33 PM)JRsec Wrote: Why would they want to? If Disney doesn't push for a P4 they won't be able to protect their investment in the Bowls. All of this clamor for an 8 school playoff is unwanted and won't go away until Disney does itself a favor in multiple ways and pushes for the P4 Champs Only format. It gives the CFP a guaranteed entrant from each of the four viewing regions. It preserves quality teams for the bowls. It forces N.D. to go all in with the ACC where ESPN profits from their presence. And Vandiver it is cheaper to pay Texas the same 50 million, pay their traveling companion (if anyone other than Oklahoma) an additional 15 million, to pay Okahoma an additional 7 million and their traveling companion an additional 15 million than to pay everyone in the Big 12 another 7 million which is what they will push for. At 50 million the new conference would be only getting a bump of 4 million each if it is the SEC and around 2 million if it's the Big 10. Either way the added brand on brand games more than covers that.
What ESPN doesn't want is to pay 42 million for Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, T.C.U., West Virginia, Kansas, and Oklahoma State, while they continue to pay 15 million for the LHN, and would need to pick up OU's T3 which has been with FOX for another 7 million.
So I haven't looked at conference disbursements in a while: as such my math might be off:
2016 SEC: $44M
2016 B1G: $48M
2016 B12: $35M
I can't see how the B1G or the SEC would accept new member(s) without wanting at least a $7M increase in team disbursements as well. ESPN saves approximately $28M just by virtue of the difference in conference size alone (10 versus 14).
Second, getting to a P4 does allow a champs only model under the current system, but an expanded conference would enable the SEC and B1G to host their own semis. That is money that could go directly to the WWL pockets if the CFP expanded to 6 or 8 teams.
Finally, I just don't see how OU and TX are going to be able to leave the B12 scott free. Come 2021, BAY and TCU and other members are going to want commitments from the Blue Bloods that are more than just hot air. When they don't materialize I think the politicians and lawyers will be mobilized in a very public and ugly manner. ESPN might not want to pay the $42M per school to keep the B12 afloat, but isn't that easier than facing Discovery in some trial? I imagine that the B1G and SEC want no part of being dragged into that either.
Admittedly, I was never great at math so any numbers I come up with will be purely speculation, but I think there's something you're missing here.
The Big 12 is currently being overpaid because it was bleeding membership and the whole world of college athletics was on the brink with all the varying possibilities.
The networks stepped in to create some calm and give everyone(mostly themselves) time to evaluate their options. Let's also remember that ESPN has essentially gutted Fox since that time. You already mentioned that, but I think you're forgetting that a lack of a threat to ESPN's perch means no one is there to drive up the price. That means when the Big 12 goes back to the negotiating table, it will essentially be ESPN bidding against themselves and they won't spend more than they have to.
You might have followed the Big East fiasco a few years ago. That league almost survived because ESPN was willing to give them a superb raise. Instead, the Big East leaders went to the open market and found no one else was willing to give them money anywhere close to that. Members started bailing, Fox lured away the Catholic 7, and everything else is history.
So my point is that ESPN won't have a motivation to pay a competitive rate to the entire Big 12 because they could get the same content for less.
What it will take for the Big 12 to survive is for Texas and Oklahoma to say that they are fully committed to the conference no matter what they get paid or could get paid elsewhere. I just find it hard to believe they'll stick around because they were quite possibly the most valuable members of the Big 12 before schools started leaving and, with the exception of Colorado, the ones that left are getting paid more now. I think that says something about the value of UT and OU if they were to be added to a different collective.
More than that, if ESPN was interested in locking up the Big 12 for essentially what they are making now then they would save themselves the trouble and sign a new long term deal. Actually, they probably would have done it a few years ago. That's ESPN's pattern as they did the same thing with the SEC and ACC. The fact that they haven't done that would suggest they would rather not pay the same rate. The problem for the Big 12 then becomes a matter of time. As their contract grows towards expiration, they're in a weaker position because most of the league doesn't have options. They'll have to take whatever ESPN offers.
It also means that UT and OU will be faced with the stark reality that they'll have to take a pay cut to maintain the status quo. I don't see them signing up for that although I could be wrong.
The thing about the CFP is that I actually don't think we'll see a champs-only playoff until the Power leagues form their own division. It will be too risky politically. What they can do, however, is cut some of the fat from within their own ranks and that would represent a healthy portion of the Big 12. That means the CFP money gets spread across fewer mouths and so everybody gets a pay raise just from that.
If you have 4 Power leagues then you have a de facto champs-only CFP instead of a de jure champs-only system. Every now and then a 2nd team from one league might get in, but most of the time it will be one from each league. So on that front, we pretty much maintain status quo.