before last nights games:
Wichita 2 MW vs Drake, Miami/Missouri in Dallas
Cincy 5 S vs W Kentucky, Kentucky in Boise
Houston 11 W PIG vs UCLA, TCU, Mich St in Detroit

SMU 7th team out

Houston 2nd team in

I am surprised SMU is still that high, the seem to be way short in a lot of the computer numbers

Drake is showing up in bracketology?

The end of the world is near.


T


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(01-16-2018 11:36 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  Drake is showing up in bracketology?

The end of the world is near.


T


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Lost track of the MVC Board again?

(01-16-2018 11:51 AM)geef Wrote:  

(01-16-2018 11:36 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  Drake is showing up in bracketology?

The end of the world is near.


T


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Lost track of the MVC Board again?

this one is somewhat ok I think- as it's who Wichita is opposed with(how NCAA this would be btw matching Wichita up with MVC champion). Also, for those that don't see it- Drake recently has been terrible(since Keno Davis year in 2008, they've gone 56-106. Take 2008 year out, and add in prior 6 years it's 95-175- or average year of 6-12).

Don't really understand the disparity in the seed lines between WSU & UC, tbh.

lets look at tiers-
tier 1- Cincy 3-2, Wichita 1-2
tier 2- Cincy 2-0, Wichita 6-0
tier 3- Cincy 2-0, Wichita 2-0
tier 4- Cincy 8-0, Wichita 6-0

SOS Cincy 139 overall, 208 OOC- Wichita 56 overall, 43 OOC
avg win- Cincy 182 Wichita 157

yeah it's pretty easy to see the disparity.

(01-16-2018 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lets look at tiers-
tier 1- Cincy 3-2, Wichita 1-2
tier 2- Cincy 2-0, Wichita 6-0
tier 3- Cincy 2-0, Wichita 2-0
tier 4- Cincy 8-0, Wichita 6-0

SOS Cincy 139 overall, 208 OOC- Wichita 56 overall, 43 OOC
avg win- Cincy 182 Wichita 157

yeah it's pretty easy to see the disparity.

Weren't all WSU fans using their KenPom numbers from last year as a reason they should have been much higher than a 10 seed?

(01-16-2018 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lets look at tiers-
tier 1- Cincy 3-2, Wichita 1-2
tier 2- Cincy 2-0, Wichita 6-0
tier 3- Cincy 2-0, Wichita 2-0
tier 4- Cincy 8-0, Wichita 6-0

SOS Cincy 139 overall, 208 OOC- Wichita 56 overall, 43 OOC
avg win- Cincy 182 Wichita 157

yeah it's pretty easy to see the disparity.

Basically my argument is yes, UC has played more crap than WSU but I guess I fail to see how home games against 150-250 is much more difficult than +250. Crap is crap, in my opinion.

Against top teams, the resumes are fairly similar:

Losses:
WSU: OU, ND neutral
UC: @ Xavier, Florida neutral

Wins:
WSU: @ Baylor, Houston, Marquette neutral
UC: @ UCLA, SMU, MSU

I don't think that Marquette win over MSU is worth 3 seed lines. Just my opinion though...

I think Cincy is probably underseeded at 5, but its early and they will have plenty of chances to move up.

Wichita's win over UConn is by RPI better than Cincy's win over SMU.

right now-
Wichita has wins over 37 Marquette(neutral), 49 Houston, 59 South Dakota St, @ 78 UConn, @ 86 Baylor, @ 95 Okla St, and @ 125 Tulsa as tier 1/2 wins
Cincy has wins over 27 Buffalo(neutral), @ 46 UCLA, @ 52 Temple, 73 Miss St, and 88 Wyoming(neutral) as tier 1/2 wins (SMU home is a tier 3 win right now)

losses-
Wichita- 3 Oklahoma, 50 Notre Dame(neutral)
Cincy- @ 8 Xavier, 41 Florida(neutral)

Wichita right now has a much deeper resume in terms of the good wins. And it could get better if UConn, Baylor, and Oklahoma St all move up just a smidge into tier 1.

Don't get lost in the metrics people. Wichita State is an elite brand right now. There is a LOT of subjective decision-making that goes into NCAA seeding. The world wants to see Wichita State succeed. We move the needle so to speak...

*Cincy fans start to rage*



*CB offers another explanation in hopes of soothing Bearcat Nation*

When the selection committee looks at WSU vs. Cincy, they are really looking at Marshall vs. Cronin. The comparison with respect to NCAA tournament capability is stark


T


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(01-16-2018 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Wichita's win over UConn is by RPI better than Cincy's win over SMU.

right now-
Wichita has wins over 37 Marquette(neutral), 49 Houston, 59 South Dakota St, @ 78 UConn, @ 86 Baylor, @ 95 Okla St, and @ 125 Tulsa as tier 1/2 wins
Cincy has wins over 27 Buffalo(neutral), @ 46 UCLA, @ 52 Temple, 73 Miss St, and 88 Wyoming(neutral) as tier 1/2 wins (SMU home is a tier 3 win right now)

losses-
Wichita- 3 Oklahoma, 50 Notre Dame(neutral)
Cincy- @ 8 Xavier, 41 Florida(neutral)

Wichita right now has a much deeper resume in terms of the good wins. And it could get better if UConn, Baylor, and Oklahoma St all move up just a smidge into tier 1.

As a broader statement on the selection process, I thought the committee was going to lean more heavily toward advanced computer metrics like KenPom and Sagarin. Yet it appears they are using RPI for the win tiers....

(01-16-2018 12:58 PM)JFlight21 Wrote:  

(01-16-2018 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Wichita's win over UConn is by RPI better than Cincy's win over SMU.

right now-
Wichita has wins over 37 Marquette(neutral), 49 Houston, 59 South Dakota St, @ 78 UConn, @ 86 Baylor, @ 95 Okla St, and @ 125 Tulsa as tier 1/2 wins
Cincy has wins over 27 Buffalo(neutral), @ 46 UCLA, @ 52 Temple, 73 Miss St, and 88 Wyoming(neutral) as tier 1/2 wins (SMU home is a tier 3 win right now)

losses-
Wichita- 3 Oklahoma, 50 Notre Dame(neutral)
Cincy- @ 8 Xavier, 41 Florida(neutral)

Wichita right now has a much deeper resume in terms of the good wins. And it could get better if UConn, Baylor, and Oklahoma St all move up just a smidge into tier 1.

As a broader statement on the selection process, I thought the committee was going to lean more heavily toward advanced computer metrics like KenPom and Sagarin. Yet it appears they are using RPI for the win tiers....

I've heard they are supposed to start using some of the metrics this year although I have yet to hear which ones or how much weight they will be given. I guess i'll believe it when I see it.

Putting that aside, the committee is still going to continue to use RPI even though the weight it is given may be decreased.

It's amazing how much SOS shouldn't matter when one's team is lugging around a 208 OOC one.

(01-16-2018 12:58 PM)JFlight21 Wrote:  

(01-16-2018 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Wichita's win over UConn is by RPI better than Cincy's win over SMU.

right now-
Wichita has wins over 37 Marquette(neutral), 49 Houston, 59 South Dakota St, @ 78 UConn, @ 86 Baylor, @ 95 Okla St, and @ 125 Tulsa as tier 1/2 wins
Cincy has wins over 27 Buffalo(neutral), @ 46 UCLA, @ 52 Temple, 73 Miss St, and 88 Wyoming(neutral) as tier 1/2 wins (SMU home is a tier 3 win right now)

losses-
Wichita- 3 Oklahoma, 50 Notre Dame(neutral)
Cincy- @ 8 Xavier, 41 Florida(neutral)

Wichita right now has a much deeper resume in terms of the good wins. And it could get better if UConn, Baylor, and Oklahoma St all move up just a smidge into tier 1.

As a broader statement on the selection process, I thought the committee was going to lean more heavily toward advanced computer metrics like KenPom and Sagarin. Yet it appears they are using RPI for the win tiers....

You are right on both counts. They are going to start encouraging the use of advanced metrics instead of discouraging it. And they are evaluating moving to an advanced metric rating system in the future.

IMO, changing the RPI slots to the Tier system which values road wins and devalues home wins is a big step in the right direction.

WSU has been well-served by advanced metrics like kenPom, but I have reservations about making a rating system that factors margin of victory the official end-all-be-all rating system. I don't like the idea of needing to run up the score whenever possible to sustain/improve your rating for selection/seeding purposes.

(01-16-2018 12:31 PM)Wheatshock Wrote:  I think Cincy is probably underseeded at 5, but its early and they will have plenty of chances to move up.

We may be underseeded, but not by much. If we get a few more good road wins in conference (UCF, UConn) and beat Wichita State in one of the matchups, then I can see a move up.

(01-16-2018 01:07 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  

(01-16-2018 12:58 PM)JFlight21 Wrote:  

(01-16-2018 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Wichita's win over UConn is by RPI better than Cincy's win over SMU.

right now-
Wichita has wins over 37 Marquette(neutral), 49 Houston, 59 South Dakota St, @ 78 UConn, @ 86 Baylor, @ 95 Okla St, and @ 125 Tulsa as tier 1/2 wins
Cincy has wins over 27 Buffalo(neutral), @ 46 UCLA, @ 52 Temple, 73 Miss St, and 88 Wyoming(neutral) as tier 1/2 wins (SMU home is a tier 3 win right now)

losses-
Wichita- 3 Oklahoma, 50 Notre Dame(neutral)
Cincy- @ 8 Xavier, 41 Florida(neutral)

Wichita right now has a much deeper resume in terms of the good wins. And it could get better if UConn, Baylor, and Oklahoma St all move up just a smidge into tier 1.

As a broader statement on the selection process, I thought the committee was going to lean more heavily toward advanced computer metrics like KenPom and Sagarin. Yet it appears they are using RPI for the win tiers....

You are right on both counts. They are going to start encouraging the use of advanced metrics instead of discouraging it. And they are evaluating moving to an advanced metric rating system in the future.

IMO, changing the RPI slots to the Tier system which values road wins and devalues home wins is a big step in the right direction.

WSU has been well-served by advanced metrics like kenPom, but I have reservations about making a rating system that factors margin of victory the official end-all-be-all rating system. I don't like the idea of needing to run up the score whenever possible to sustain/improve your rating for selection/seeding purposes.

RPI already factors home wins at only .66 and factors road wins at 1.33.

(01-16-2018 01:05 PM)Wheatshock Wrote:  

(01-16-2018 12:58 PM)JFlight21 Wrote:  

(01-16-2018 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Wichita's win over UConn is by RPI better than Cincy's win over SMU.

right now-
Wichita has wins over 37 Marquette(neutral), 49 Houston, 59 South Dakota St, @ 78 UConn, @ 86 Baylor, @ 95 Okla St, and @ 125 Tulsa as tier 1/2 wins
Cincy has wins over 27 Buffalo(neutral), @ 46 UCLA, @ 52 Temple, 73 Miss St, and 88 Wyoming(neutral) as tier 1/2 wins (SMU home is a tier 3 win right now)

losses-
Wichita- 3 Oklahoma, 50 Notre Dame(neutral)
Cincy- @ 8 Xavier, 41 Florida(neutral)

Wichita right now has a much deeper resume in terms of the good wins. And it could get better if UConn, Baylor, and Oklahoma St all move up just a smidge into tier 1.

As a broader statement on the selection process, I thought the committee was going to lean more heavily toward advanced computer metrics like KenPom and Sagarin. Yet it appears they are using RPI for the win tiers....

I've heard they are supposed to start using some of the metrics this year although I have yet to hear which ones or how much weight they will be given. I guess i'll believe it when I see it.

Putting that aside, the committee is still going to continue to use RPI even though the weight it is given may be decreased.

RPI is used to rank wins. Direct comparisons of similar seeds or bubble teams will use all metrics to compare teams. So for example, #55 Rhode island is 3-2 vs tier1 and 2, #57 UCF is 3-3 vs tier 1 and 2. All metrics will be used to compare the two. So Rhode Island might be 68 kenpom, 57 BPI, 55 RPI while UCF is 54 kenpom, 60 BPI, 57 RPI. The committee will sort through it all and use the multiple rating systems to ensure they cya at any questionable bubble choices, like say a sub .500 in conference bigXii team over Mercer who got upset in their tournament.

(01-16-2018 01:07 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  

(01-16-2018 12:58 PM)JFlight21 Wrote:  

(01-16-2018 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Wichita's win over UConn is by RPI better than Cincy's win over SMU.

right now-
Wichita has wins over 37 Marquette(neutral), 49 Houston, 59 South Dakota St, @ 78 UConn, @ 86 Baylor, @ 95 Okla St, and @ 125 Tulsa as tier 1/2 wins
Cincy has wins over 27 Buffalo(neutral), @ 46 UCLA, @ 52 Temple, 73 Miss St, and 88 Wyoming(neutral) as tier 1/2 wins (SMU home is a tier 3 win right now)

losses-
Wichita- 3 Oklahoma, 50 Notre Dame(neutral)
Cincy- @ 8 Xavier, 41 Florida(neutral)

Wichita right now has a much deeper resume in terms of the good wins. And it could get better if UConn, Baylor, and Oklahoma St all move up just a smidge into tier 1.

As a broader statement on the selection process, I thought the committee was going to lean more heavily toward advanced computer metrics like KenPom and Sagarin. Yet it appears they are using RPI for the win tiers....

You are right on both counts. They are going to start encouraging the use of advanced metrics instead of discouraging it. And they are evaluating moving to an advanced metric rating system in the future.

IMO, changing the RPI slots to the Tier system which values road wins and devalues home wins is a big step in the right direction.

WSU has been well-served by advanced metrics like kenPom, but I have reservations about making a rating system that factors margin of victory the official end-all-be-all rating system. I don't like the idea of needing to run up the score whenever possible to sustain/improve your rating for selection/seeding purposes.

I agree with you on this, it would be possible to game the system unless whatever metric is used is able to somehow account for non rotation players getting minutes.

Another way to possibly make it work is to have such a system only account for margin of victory up to a certain point. Cap the margin of victory accounted for at 20 or so and that would take away the incentive to run up huge scores on overmatched opponents.