(11-21-2017 11:49 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote: If the AAC invited Boise State and SDSU again, would they join?
The American is doing pretty good. Not exactly the dumpster fire most people thought it would be.
Depends on what the media partners say when the AAC is negotiating its next TV deal for the 2020 season. If the media partners say that they will pay materially more to the conference if they were to add Boise and SDSU, then you better believe the AAC would do it.
Whether Boise State and SDSU join the AAC will depend on how much the AAC's TV deal increases. The simple 30% increase (outlined below) from the current deal likely isn't enough. But the pro rata contract increase for an expanded AAC is likely to reach 66% or more (ie, $1M+ pro rata increase). That might be enough to lure Boise and SDSU away.
Boise and SDSU likely would bring material value to the the next AAC TV deal. A significant part of the current ESPN-MWC TV deal is for Boise St.'s home games. Half of the 2017 MWC conference games on ESPN/2 involved Boise and all the Boise games had better ratings than the non-Boise MWC conference games. Utah St.at Wisconsin was the only non-Boise MWC game on ESPN (all others were on ESPN2 or ESPNU) - and that game was part of the B1G TV deal.
So, a rough estimate assigns Boise and SDSU half of the value of the MWC's $18M contract with ESPN - or about $9M. (And, I note that the MWC has indicated that there will not be the same sweetheart deal for Boise the next time around).
Without any other increase to the AAC contract, if you simply added that $9M to the pot (and despite adding two new members), the pro rata portion to the AAC members increases by 30% (for 14 members - including Boise and SDSU - assuming the MWC does not offer the Boise sweetheart deal again) .
It's also important to note that pollsters, and perhaps more importantly, the CFP Selection Committee, continue to show Boise State love, despite 2 losses and no P5 victories. Boise State still has cache and would benefit the AAC's brand and prestige. From the inverse perspective, Boise St. would likely benefit materially from being part of a conference that has multiple teams in the rankings. Boise's path to the NY6 bid would actually be more difficult, because they would need to beat #15 UCF or #20 Memphis to win the AAC championship (instead of an unranked Fresno St.). But this is offset by the fact that Boise is not likely to win the NY6 bid,
even if they beat Fresno St. and the additional benefits from being part of the conference that does, in fact, win the NY6 bid.