Teams with 1st Loss Week 8:
none

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 8:
Michigan
Southern California
Navy
Virginia
Kentucky
San Diego State

Teams with 1st Win week 8:
Massachusetts
Charlotte

Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.15% (47/130)
Week 2: 37.35% (31/83)
Week 3: 28.85% (15/52)
Week 4: 35.13% (13/37)
Week 5: 29.17% (7/24)
Week 6: 23.53% (4/17)
Week 7: 38.46% (5/13)
Week 8: 0% (0/8)

Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
5: No Change

Possible undefeated teams: Alabama/Georgia, Penn State/Wisconsin, Miami (FL), Texas Christian, and Central Florida/South Florida

Week 8 Thoughts:
-We did not have any of undefeated teams lose, but we eliminated 2 teams from the winless category this week. In a battle of 2 winless teams UMass finally got their victory (they have been close numerous weeks, but on the wrong side every time). Charlotte also got a 1-point win over UAB (who has done surprisingly well if their first year back).

-That leaves us with just 3 winless teams. Of the three, the one I am leased worried about winning a game is Baylor as they have been keeping it closer the last several weeks and they have a truly terrible Kansas team still on the schedule. Georgia Southern and UTEP give me more pause, but there are still chances for them. UMass killed Georgia Southern this week and their coach was fired.

-Other games have revealed a few things. Undefeated Penn State killed Michigan. Penn State looks like the real deal and it is now a 3-way race in the Big Ten eastern division between them, 1-loss Ohio State, and 1-loss Michigan State. The Spartans are somewhat forgotten in this and certainly the longest shot, but probably not more than Penn State was last year so good not to forget them just yet.

-Notre Dame won impressively vs. USC which has 2 big Rose/Sugar implications. One is that the PAC-12 is going to have an increasingly difficult time getting in. It’s 2 remaining 1-loss teams are the Washington schools. Washington State’s 1 loss came in blow-out fashion 2 weeks ago to a so-so Cal team. Washington meanwhile had an out of conference schedule the committee is not going to like and its loss to Arizona State suggests there might be troubles ahead. That said, Washington is still definitely the conference’s best chance at a semi-final bowl and will probably be fine if they win out. That’s a lot of eggs in one basket for the conference though.

-The other thing with that win is that 1-loss Notre Dame needs to start being taken seriously as a Rose Bowl/Sugar Bowl contender. Win out and their strength of schedule combined with how they have looked will likely put them in. Their one big issue though is the loss to Georgia. If Georgia wins the SEC and gets in that doesn’t hurt them, but say Georgia wins out and losses to Alabama in the SEC Championship game. A 1-loss Georgia would then be hard to by-pass for Notre Dame given the head to head (I think the Irish could pass them with 2 losses, but not with 1). That said, that’s a long way off now and still an unlikely result.

-Not that they were a national title contender or anything, but previous 1-loss Kentucky lost this week. They got killed, but it was interesting seeing them be the 3rd to last SEC team on the undefeated or 1-loss list (even if schedule helped a lot).

-In the Group of 5 race, it now seems all American. Memphis won a tough game at Houston, which leaves them with 1-loss in the west. In the east, both UCF and USF continue undefeated. Meanwhile San Diego State lost in the Mountain West all but putting them out of contention. I think at this point, a 2-loss Boise State is now the biggest competition and it would take a lot for that to work out (nothing insane, but quite a few things moving all in their direction). Toledo and Marshall still not 100% out, but would need even more I think.

Week 9 Thoughts:
-Our undefeated teams play in the following games: Undefeated Penn State @ 1-loss Ohio State, undefeated Georgia vs. Florida, undefeated TCU @ Iowa State, undefeated Wisconsin @ Illinois, undefeated Miami (FL) @ North Carolina, Houston @ undefeated South Florida, and Austin Peay @ undefeated Central Florida

-We have 1 game between 1-loss teams this week: North Carolina State @ Notre Dame

-Other bigger games involving 1-loss teams include: Georgia Tech @ 1-loss Clemson, 1-loss Oklahoma State @ West Virginia, 1-loss Washington State @ Arizona,

-For our winless teams, we have: Texas @ winless Baylor, winless Georgia Southern @ Troy, and UTSA @ winless UTEP

-Lots of big games this week. The winner of Ohio State/Penn State is likely going to win the east (although don’t completely discount Michigan State). TCU is going up against a suddenly very competitive Cyclone team which will either further cement TCU’s place in the national conversation or make us at least consider Iowa State going to the Big 12 Championship. Notre Dame vs. North Carolina State is showing us the team that is the most likely to battle Miami for the divisional crown vs. the Irish who need to show follow-up to last week’s big game. Georgia Tech vs. Clemson is a big deal for a few reasons. If Georgia Tech were to manage to win it, it would mean Clemson would no longer control their destiny in the ACC even as North Carolina State would remain without any conference losses.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 2, total: 8

Miami (FL)
South Florida
Penn State
Wisconsin
Central Florida
Texas Christian
Georgia
Alabama

One-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 0, independents: 1, total: 13
North Carolina State
Ohio State
Marshall
Notre Dame
Toledo
Oklahoma State
Michigan State
Memphis
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma
Clemson
Washington State
Washington

Remaining Winless Teams: Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 3
Baylor
UTEP
Georgia Southern

Nice write up

If Notre Dame were to win out, and Georgia suffer its only loss in the SEC championship to Alabama, I wouldn't rule out both of them finding their way into the playoff.

If Clemson were to have a second loss, and ND holding wins over both Miami and NC State, the ACC champ could easily be on the sidelines. We've talked in the past about which of the five power conference champs might get left out. What if three of them are? The B1G champ will likely have a pretty good resume, and a one loss champ from that conference is probably a lock. But who else truly can be said to be a lock at this point?

(10-24-2017 08:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  If Notre Dame were to win out, and Georgia suffer its only loss in the SEC championship to Alabama, I wouldn't rule out both of them finding their way into the playoff.

If Clemson were to have a second loss, and ND holding wins over both Miami and NC State, the ACC champ could easily be on the sidelines. We've talked in the past about which of the five power conference champs might get left out. What if three of them are? The B1G champ will likely have a pretty good resume, and a one loss champ from that conference is probably a lock. But who else truly can be said to be a lock at this point?

Precisely. If Georgia beats Florida this weekend and overcomes my Tigers they will head to Atlanta undefeated. If they play an undefeated Alabama close that may be enough to land them a slot. Similarly I think that Penn State and Wisconsin could find themselves in the same scenario (although I still think Ohio State takes it). If Georgia has but one loss to Alabama and has the victory over Notre Dame it would be hard to keep Georgia out.

The Big 12 has the worst OOC record and appears to be fairly weak. If T.C.U. loses but 1 game I think they have difficulty getting in over the Big 10 pair, the SEC pair and Notre Dame.

The PAC looks to be out of it already with little way to recover. The best they could hope for is a 1 loss Washington as a champ.

The ACC is positioned poorly should Clemson slip again and without their starting QB (if the concussion issue persists) they could easily lose a key game down the stretch. If Notre Dame beats Miami and N.C. State it's game over in that scenario.

So let's say Penn State wins out and faces an undefeated Wisconsin and Georgia wins out and faces an undefeated Alabama and Wisconsin and Georgia both lose close CCG's.

Could it be that Notre Dame without a 13th data point is left out and Alabama faces Wisconsin in the first round and Georgia faces Penn State?

If so what kind of uproar and radical change would be wrought from such an event?

I think N.D. officials would have their cover and opportunity to push for full membership. Texas and Oklahoma would have their cover to leave. And the PAC would have a torch under their tuchus to get competitive both in conference clout and in the actual sport.

(10-24-2017 09:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 08:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  If Clemson were to have a second loss, and ND holding wins over both Miami and NC State, the ACC champ could easily be on the sidelines.

The ACC is positioned poorly should Clemson slip again and without their starting QB (if the concussion issue persists) they could easily lose a key game down the stretch. If Notre Dame beats Miami and N.C. State it's game over in that scenario.

Agreed. The ACC could be eliminated almost single-handedly by Notre Dame, assuming Clemson loses again. I would give a one-loss Virginia Tech team a slim chance of making the playoffs if they win out, but by no means would that be a sure thing.

I think any one loss champ is going to have a strong case. You will see the day a 2-loss team makes it in over a 1-loss for sure, but most years, being a 1-loss conference champ will be enough.

I think there is still a fair chance our current 3 year pattern holds. We aren't far from this being the first year off from the current pattern of all participants being from different conferences and all with 0 or 1 losses though. I think both Washington schools will lose again and think one of the ACC or Big 12 could well have its champion with 2 losses.

That said, I don't want to over-blow what that means. That is not going to blow up the system imo; it was designed to be able to take more than 1 from a conference (there were debates on that). Having the debates as the season goes on is one of the reasons the sport has been doing so well.

Next few weeks will be interesting.

(10-24-2017 11:09 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  We aren't far from this being the first year off from the current pattern of all participants being from different conferences and all with 0 or 1 losses though. I think both Washington schools will lose again and think one of the ACC or Big 12 could well have its champion with 2 losses.

Stanford already has 2 losses and could win the Pac-12 -- that might actually be the most likely Pac-12 scenario at this point.

Any of Miami, Clemson, or NCSU could win the ACC with 2 losses.

Most likely way for everyone in the Big 12 to have 2 losses is for OU to lose once but beat TCU, and then beat TCU again in the CCG. Though with an upset or two, every team could have 2 or more losses even before the CCG.

Notre Dame is not likely to finish 11-1 given the tough games they have remaining.

If any three of those happen, that opens the door wide for a 12-1 SEC CCG loser to back into the playoff, or maybe Penn State, if they lose only to Ohio State, as a 2nd Big Ten team.

(10-24-2017 09:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 08:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  If Notre Dame were to win out, and Georgia suffer its only loss in the SEC championship to Alabama, I wouldn't rule out both of them finding their way into the playoff.

If Clemson were to have a second loss, and ND holding wins over both Miami and NC State, the ACC champ could easily be on the sidelines. We've talked in the past about which of the five power conference champs might get left out. What if three of them are? The B1G champ will likely have a pretty good resume, and a one loss champ from that conference is probably a lock. But who else truly can be said to be a lock at this point?

Precisely. If Georgia beats Florida this weekend and overcomes my Tigers they will head to Atlanta undefeated. If they play an undefeated Alabama close that may be enough to land them a slot. Similarly I think that Penn State and Wisconsin could find themselves in the same scenario (although I still think Ohio State takes it). If Georgia has but one loss to Alabama and has the victory over Notre Dame it would be hard to keep Georgia out.

The Big 12 has the worst OOC record and appears to be fairly weak. If T.C.U. loses but 1 game I think they have difficulty getting in over the Big 10 pair, the SEC pair and Notre Dame.

The PAC looks to be out of it already with little way to recover. The best they could hope for is a 1 loss Washington as a champ.

The ACC is positioned poorly should Clemson slip again and without their starting QB (if the concussion issue persists) they could easily lose a key game down the stretch. If Notre Dame beats Miami and N.C. State it's game over in that scenario.

So let's say Penn State wins out and faces an undefeated Wisconsin and Georgia wins out and faces an undefeated Alabama and Wisconsin and Georgia both lose close CCG's.

Could it be that Notre Dame without a 13th data point is left out and Alabama faces Wisconsin in the first round and Georgia faces Penn State?

If so what kind of uproar and radical change would be wrought from such an event?

I think N.D. officials would have their cover and opportunity to push for full membership. Texas and Oklahoma would have their cover to leave. And the PAC would have a torch under their tuchus to get competitive both in conference clout and in the actual sport.

Why do you assume that ND officials would want or desire such cover and opportunity in the first place?

Not trying to hijack a good thread but do you think that when it comes time to renew the playoff system deal we will see a push for going to 6-8:

Pac 12: we keep getting left out, we need more spots
Big 12: we've been left out too
SEC: I bet we could get 2 teams in
Big Ten: we probably could too
ACC: if Notre Dame would join as a full member we could be in that same 2-bid conversation
Notre Dame: yes to the expanded playoff but sorry ACC, it's a hard no
G5: we're going to be in this conversation too right?

(10-24-2017 11:41 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 11:09 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  We aren't far from this being the first year off from the current pattern of all participants being from different conferences and all with 0 or 1 losses though. I think both Washington schools will lose again and think one of the ACC or Big 12 could well have its champion with 2 losses.

Stanford already has 2 losses and could win the Pac-12 -- that might actually be the most likely Pac-12 scenario at this point.

Any of Miami, Clemson, or NCSU could win the ACC with 2 losses.

Most likely way for everyone in the Big 12 to have 2 losses is for OU to lose once but beat TCU, and then beat TCU again in the CCG. Though with an upset or two, every team could have 2 or more losses even before the CCG.

Notre Dame is not likely to finish 11-1 given the tough games they have remaining.

If any three of those happen, that opens the door wide for a 12-1 SEC CCG loser to back into the playoff, or maybe Penn State, if they lose only to Ohio State, as a 2nd Big Ten team.

Yeah once you have only 2 leagues with 0 or 1 loss champions, it really opens things up for non-champs.

Should be said that it is possible for a non-champ to get in even over a 1 loss champ, even though it has never happened. Last year non-champ Ohio State was ranked at 3 ahead of 1 loss champ Washington at 4. Presumably the order would have been the same at 4/5.

(10-25-2017 06:20 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 09:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 08:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  If Notre Dame were to win out, and Georgia suffer its only loss in the SEC championship to Alabama, I wouldn't rule out both of them finding their way into the playoff.

If Clemson were to have a second loss, and ND holding wins over both Miami and NC State, the ACC champ could easily be on the sidelines. We've talked in the past about which of the five power conference champs might get left out. What if three of them are? The B1G champ will likely have a pretty good resume, and a one loss champ from that conference is probably a lock. But who else truly can be said to be a lock at this point?

Precisely. If Georgia beats Florida this weekend and overcomes my Tigers they will head to Atlanta undefeated. If they play an undefeated Alabama close that may be enough to land them a slot. Similarly I think that Penn State and Wisconsin could find themselves in the same scenario (although I still think Ohio State takes it). If Georgia has but one loss to Alabama and has the victory over Notre Dame it would be hard to keep Georgia out.

The Big 12 has the worst OOC record and appears to be fairly weak. If T.C.U. loses but 1 game I think they have difficulty getting in over the Big 10 pair, the SEC pair and Notre Dame.

The PAC looks to be out of it already with little way to recover. The best they could hope for is a 1 loss Washington as a champ.

The ACC is positioned poorly should Clemson slip again and without their starting QB (if the concussion issue persists) they could easily lose a key game down the stretch. If Notre Dame beats Miami and N.C. State it's game over in that scenario.

So let's say Penn State wins out and faces an undefeated Wisconsin and Georgia wins out and faces an undefeated Alabama and Wisconsin and Georgia both lose close CCG's.

Could it be that Notre Dame without a 13th data point is left out and Alabama faces Wisconsin in the first round and Georgia faces Penn State?

If so what kind of uproar and radical change would be wrought from such an event?

I think N.D. officials would have their cover and opportunity to push for full membership. Texas and Oklahoma would have their cover to leave. And the PAC would have a torch under their tuchus to get competitive both in conference clout and in the actual sport.

Why do you assume that ND officials would want or desire such cover and opportunity in the first place?

Because they tried to sneak it through before with the Big 10 before your alums caught up with them and stopped it.

(10-25-2017 08:33 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Not trying to hijack a good thread but do you think that when it comes time to renew the playoff system deal we will see a push for going to 6-8:

Pac 12: we keep getting left out, we need more spots
Big 12: we've been left out too
SEC: I bet we could get 2 teams in
Big Ten: we probably could too
ACC: if Notre Dame would join as a full member we could be in that same 2-bid conversation
Notre Dame: yes to the expanded playoff but sorry ACC, it's a hard no
G5: we're going to be in this conversation too right?

None. The presidents don't want it, but if they were convinced to extend the season for 1 game they would probably prefer a conference semi where they keep all of the money without having to split it among the other conferences, and this would be particularly true for the SEC and Big 10.

3 undefeated teams went down today.

(10-25-2017 07:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-25-2017 08:33 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Not trying to hijack a good thread but do you think that when it comes time to renew the playoff system deal we will see a push for going to 6-8:

Pac 12: we keep getting left out, we need more spots
Big 12: we've been left out too
SEC: I bet we could get 2 teams in
Big Ten: we probably could too
ACC: if Notre Dame would join as a full member we could be in that same 2-bid conversation
Notre Dame: yes to the expanded playoff but sorry ACC, it's a hard no
G5: we're going to be in this conversation too right?

None. The presidents don't want it, but if they were convinced to extend the season for 1 game they would probably prefer a conference semi where they keep all of the money without having to split it among the other conferences, and this would be particularly true for the SEC and Big 10.

but the question would be would there be more money in conference semifinals, or would there be more money overall for quarterfinals. I could easily see TV paying more for quarterfinals quite frankly.

(10-28-2017 06:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-25-2017 07:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-25-2017 08:33 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Not trying to hijack a good thread but do you think that when it comes time to renew the playoff system deal we will see a push for going to 6-8:

Pac 12: we keep getting left out, we need more spots
Big 12: we've been left out too
SEC: I bet we could get 2 teams in
Big Ten: we probably could too
ACC: if Notre Dame would join as a full member we could be in that same 2-bid conversation
Notre Dame: yes to the expanded playoff but sorry ACC, it's a hard no
G5: we're going to be in this conversation too right?

None. The presidents don't want it, but if they were convinced to extend the season for 1 game they would probably prefer a conference semi where they keep all of the money without having to split it among the other conferences, and this would be particularly true for the SEC and Big 10.

but the question would be would there be more money in conference semifinals, or would there be more money overall for quarterfinals. I could easily see TV paying more for quarterfinals quite frankly.

The SEC and Big 10 semis would be nationally televised anyway. The conferences don't have to split that money. It's all theirs. That's pretty much the end of it.

(10-28-2017 07:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-28-2017 06:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-25-2017 07:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-25-2017 08:33 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Not trying to hijack a good thread but do you think that when it comes time to renew the playoff system deal we will see a push for going to 6-8:

Pac 12: we keep getting left out, we need more spots
Big 12: we've been left out too
SEC: I bet we could get 2 teams in
Big Ten: we probably could too
ACC: if Notre Dame would join as a full member we could be in that same 2-bid conversation
Notre Dame: yes to the expanded playoff but sorry ACC, it's a hard no
G5: we're going to be in this conversation too right?

None. The presidents don't want it, but if they were convinced to extend the season for 1 game they would probably prefer a conference semi where they keep all of the money without having to split it among the other conferences, and this would be particularly true for the SEC and Big 10.

but the question would be would there be more money in conference semifinals, or would there be more money overall for quarterfinals. I could easily see TV paying more for quarterfinals quite frankly.

The SEC and Big 10 semis would be nationally televised anyway. The conferences don't have to split that money. It's all theirs. That's pretty much the end of it.

They would have to convince other conferences that it would also make big money for them.

(10-25-2017 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-25-2017 06:20 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 09:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 08:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  If Notre Dame were to win out, and Georgia suffer its only loss in the SEC championship to Alabama, I wouldn't rule out both of them finding their way into the playoff.

If Clemson were to have a second loss, and ND holding wins over both Miami and NC State, the ACC champ could easily be on the sidelines. We've talked in the past about which of the five power conference champs might get left out. What if three of them are? The B1G champ will likely have a pretty good resume, and a one loss champ from that conference is probably a lock. But who else truly can be said to be a lock at this point?

Precisely. If Georgia beats Florida this weekend and overcomes my Tigers they will head to Atlanta undefeated. If they play an undefeated Alabama close that may be enough to land them a slot. Similarly I think that Penn State and Wisconsin could find themselves in the same scenario (although I still think Ohio State takes it). If Georgia has but one loss to Alabama and has the victory over Notre Dame it would be hard to keep Georgia out.

The Big 12 has the worst OOC record and appears to be fairly weak. If T.C.U. loses but 1 game I think they have difficulty getting in over the Big 10 pair, the SEC pair and Notre Dame.

The PAC looks to be out of it already with little way to recover. The best they could hope for is a 1 loss Washington as a champ.

The ACC is positioned poorly should Clemson slip again and without their starting QB (if the concussion issue persists) they could easily lose a key game down the stretch. If Notre Dame beats Miami and N.C. State it's game over in that scenario.

So let's say Penn State wins out and faces an undefeated Wisconsin and Georgia wins out and faces an undefeated Alabama and Wisconsin and Georgia both lose close CCG's.

Could it be that Notre Dame without a 13th data point is left out and Alabama faces Wisconsin in the first round and Georgia faces Penn State?

If so what kind of uproar and radical change would be wrought from such an event?

I think N.D. officials would have their cover and opportunity to push for full membership. Texas and Oklahoma would have their cover to leave. And the PAC would have a torch under their tuchus to get competitive both in conference clout and in the actual sport.

Why do you assume that ND officials would want or desire such cover and opportunity in the first place?

Because they tried to sneak it through before with the Big 10 before your alums caught up with them and stopped it.

1999?

1) That is almost 20 years ago, those administrators are not there now. Not relevant to today, and

2) It was only the faculty senate who voted to accept, the BOT shot it down. Yes, the alumni and fans were opposed.

Fun scenario: Alabama and Georgia win out and face each other in the SEC championship game as #1 and #2. Bama wins by 1 point. ND wins out and finishes season with 1 loss. Ohio st beats Wisconsin in Big 10 championship. Oklahoma and Clemson and Penn st win out.

Who gets in?

(10-28-2017 08:19 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Fun scenario: Alabama and Georgia win out and face each other in the SEC championship game as #1 and #2. Bama wins by 1 point. ND wins out and finishes season with 1 loss. Ohio st beats Wisconsin in Big 10 championship. Oklahoma and Clemson and Penn st win out.

Who gets in?

In your scenario: 1. Alabama 2. Ohio State 3. Georgia 4. Notre Dame

But I have to say you are underestimating Miami. I think Miami wins out and climbs into top 5.

(10-29-2017 12:56 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(10-28-2017 08:19 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Fun scenario: Alabama and Georgia win out and face each other in the SEC championship game as #1 and #2. Bama wins by 1 point. ND wins out and finishes season with 1 loss. Ohio st beats Wisconsin in Big 10 championship. Oklahoma and Clemson and Penn st win out.

Who gets in?

In your scenario: 1. Alabama 2. Ohio State 3. Georgia 4. Notre Dame

But I have to say you are underestimating Miami. I think Miami wins out and climbs into top 5.

I think the Irish will handle Miami. So the four listed are the most likely unless Oklahoma wins out and they whipped the Buckeyes to start the season.