This web site has us losing every game.
http://www.cfbanalytics.com/predictions.php

Non-negligible...I'd hope we beat UAB, which is essentially a start-up, at least

I would take the even-up bet that we win at least one game. I would even put down 150 to win 100 on that.

UAB, NT, UTSA, UTEP all winnable

FIU -- should win.

My guess is 3-9.
Happy with 4-8.
Really happy at 5-7.
Dropping dead of a stroke happy with 6-6.

How accurate have they been?

(08-15-2017 03:25 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I would take the even-up bet that we win at least one game. I would even put down 150 to win 100 on that.
UAB, NT, UTSA, UTEP all winnable
FIU -- should win.
My guess is 3-9.
Happy with 4-8.
Really happy at 5-7.
Dropping dead of a stroke happy with 6-6.

I'm never going to be drop dead happy with anything less than 9-3, but 6-6 would definitely exceed my expectations, which are about in line with yours.

(08-15-2017 03:25 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I would take the even-up bet that we win at least one game. I would even put down 150 to win 100 on that.

UAB, NT, UTSA, UTEP all winnable

FIU -- should win.

My guess is 3-9.
Happy with 4-8.
Really happy at 5-7.
Dropping dead of a stroke happy with 6-6.

Seriously? You'd really be happy with 4-8? I guess that's why Bailiff is still around.

Would anybody here be happy with 1-11 if the win was Stanford? It would be a top50 win.

How about if it was UH?

Please note, I did not say I would be happy with 1-11. I will only be happy with 14-0.

I would be happy if Rice looks prepared and well-coached in every game and finishes with a winning record (which would basically require a bowl appearance). I'm not saying I would advocate building a statue of Coach Bailiff if this happened, but it would certainly exceed my current expectations.

Based on extensive personal analysis (none) and deep thought (this is off the top of my head), my likelihood of expected regular season records is as follows (excluding ties) (from most likely to least likely):
Tier 1 - mediocrity
5-7
4-8
6-6

Tier 2 - decent or disappointing (but not a total disaster)
7-5
3-9

Tier 3 - either shockingly good, or terrible
8-4
2-10
9-3
1-11
0-12
10-2

Tier 4 - how do you spell "highest rated Group of Five team"?
11-1
12-0

(08-15-2017 04:12 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(08-15-2017 03:25 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I would take the even-up bet that we win at least one game. I would even put down 150 to win 100 on that.

UAB, NT, UTSA, UTEP all winnable

FIU -- should win.

My guess is 3-9.
Happy with 4-8.
Really happy at 5-7.
Dropping dead of a stroke happy with 6-6.

Seriously? You'd really be happy with 4-8? I guess that's why Bailiff is still around.

Think of it as, if I were stranded between Ozona and Ft Stockton with no traffic, during the mid-July mid-afternoon sun.

I'd be *happy* (with those expectations) to drink rancid milk from a rusty Bud can. I would far more *prefer* an ice cold 5-gallon container of imported sparkling water. But the local and predominant conditions override that will o wisp preference.

With the low expectations I have, I would be happy with 4-8.

I would far, far, far more "prefer" a better program, better coach, etc.

For the mathematically inclined, think of it as a local maxima. Not a long term one. Should it form a basis for keeping Bailiff? Not on your life. But it ain't going to get better than that this year.

(08-15-2017 04:42 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I would be happy if Rice looks prepared and well-coached in every game and finishes with a winning record (which would basically require a bowl appearance). I'm not saying I would advocate building a statue of Coach Bailiff if this happened, but it would certainly exceed my current expectations.

Based on extensive personal analysis (none) and deep thought (this is off the top of my head), my likelihood of expected regular season records is as follows (excluding ties) (from most likely to least likely):
Tier 1 - mediocrity
5-7
4-8
6-6

Tier 2 - decent or disappointing (but not a total disaster)
7-5
3-9

Tier 3 - either shockingly good, or terrible
8-4
2-10
9-3
1-11
0-12
10-2

Tier 4 - how do you spell "highest rated Group of Five team"?
11-1
12-0

I spell Tier 4 as EN EFF DOUBLE YOU EYE TEE TEE

last three words in the above acronym are "In This Timeline"

Well, the good thing (or bad thing, if you have a low ceiling), is that all the games are yet to be played and all things are possible.

Yep, 14-0 is unlikely - as unlikely as a total eclipse centering on my house. Well, maybe a bit more unlikely than that. Maybe as likely as me watching that total eclipse while balancing on one hand on a unicycle. With a rose in my teeth. But I cannot ever bring myself to say I will be happy or satisfied with any loss, or any number of losses.

I'll be happy if I see a well-coached team every week. I'll be disappointed with a losing record, but I'll be patient if we look good. No more blowout losses. There's a narrow path to six wins, and I'd be completely satisfied if we pulled it off. Given the schedule and the changes, my highest hopes for the season would be met.

Vegas has the over/under at 3.5 wins. For anyone so inclined, you can put real $ on that #.

Author of this article must have the under.

(08-15-2017 05:30 PM)Ourland Wrote:  I'll be happy if I see a well-coached team every week. I'll be disappointed with a losing record, but I'll be patient if we look good. No more blowout losses. There's a narrow path to six wins, and I'd be completely satisfied if we pulled it off. Given the schedule and the changes, my highest hopes for the season would be met.

Yep. Totally Agree.
As I've said before, my expectations for this season are fairly low. I'd like us to be above respectable, given this season's SOS...a tall order.
Set the table for a winning season in '18

sadly my care for Rice FB may be at a all time low. Decent respectable play and no blowouts like we have seen the last two years, when there were too many games I just couldn't even stomach. And this from someone who has watched Rice since 1969 as well as the Oilers and Texans.

(08-15-2017 05:30 PM)Ourland Wrote:  I'll be happy if I see a well-coached team every week. I'll be disappointed with a losing record, but I'll be patient if we look good. No more blowout losses. There's a narrow path to six wins, and I'd be completely satisfied if we pulled it off. Given the schedule and the changes, my highest hopes for the season would be met.

I'm interested in seeing what results there might be from the coaching changes and new defense. Certainly think improvement is possible.

(08-15-2017 06:28 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  [quote='Ourland' pid='14505696' dateline='1502836231']
I'll be happy if I see a well-coached team every week. I'll be disappointed with a losing record, but I'll be patient if we look good. No more blowout losses. There's a narrow path to six wins, and I'd be completely satisfied if we pulled it off. Given the schedule and the changes, my highest hopes for the season would be met.

I'm interested in seeing what results there might be from the coaching changes and new defense. Certainly think improvement is possible.
[/quote

Yes absolutely. I expect significant improvement. I'm even excited about all this. It was past time for change

(08-15-2017 04:12 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(08-15-2017 03:25 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I would take the even-up bet that we win at least one game. I would even put down 150 to win 100 on that.

UAB, NT, UTSA, UTEP all winnable

FIU -- should win.

My guess is 3-9.
Happy with 4-8.
Really happy at 5-7.
Dropping dead of a stroke happy with 6-6.

Seriously? You'd really be happy with 4-8? I guess that's why Bailiff is still around.

Amazing at how low the standard has become under Bailiff. Anywhere else, he would have been gone by now. At best they win 3. Don't see them beating UTSA. Four possible FIU, UTEP, UAB, and NT.

Wow all ranked in the bottom 10% of Div 1 football. Way to go DB and JK.

(08-15-2017 05:30 PM)Ourland Wrote:  I'll be happy if I see a well-coached team every week.

I'd be happy to see that one week. Then go from there.

Quote:I'll be disappointed with a losing record, but I'll be patient if we look good. No more blowout losses.

Against CUSA, it would be hard to look good and end up with a losing record. There are games like Stanford where we could look pretty good and still lose, but there are a lot of really bad teams on that schedule.

Quote:There's a narrow path to six wins, and I'd be completely satisfied if we pulled it off. Given the schedule and the changes, my highest hopes for the season would be met.

6-6 beats the heck out of 3-9, which is what I am expecting. So in that sense I'd be happy. But I'd be extremely disappointed to think that we would now consider 6-6 to be good.

Here's a season preview from Deadspin. I think it's pretty reasonable, but the headline says it all.

"Rice's Best-Case Scenario Is Being Average."

http://deadspin.com/rices-best-case-scen...1797952917