This may be structural for awhile until a number of factors are addressed:

• Education - Poor degree program selection, high cost of tuition greatly exceeding inflation and high student loan debt
• Smarter consumers - Socking more money into savings, with current savings rate at 5.5% vs 2.2% prior to the 2008 recession
• Aging population - GenX bottleneck plus large baby boomer population going into retirement
• Medical care - exceeding the cost of inflation with obamacare not controlling costs and quality like it promised
  

More detail below.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/06/hopes-of-...-fade.html

Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

Its not just student debt. Its total debt---including public debt. It creates a drag on the economy. The worst debt is the crap load of auto debt out there in the hands of some pretty high risk borrowers with 7 year loans they can barely afford (many of whom are upside down on their vehicles).

Keep an eye on automobile defaults. They are currently rising and I think thats going to be the first crack in the veneer of financial stability.

Honestly, debt levels are so high and the overall financial system is so leveraged, I really dont see any way around another 2008 financial crisis. Essentially, growth rates cant really increase until the consumer deleverages. Reagan's policies were correct---but they also were successful because the environment of the time was conducive to growth. The saving rate was high at the time and the average household had little consumer debt. That was the perfect environment for consumption led economic growth.

That's not the situation today. The majority of households are leveraged to hilt from over consumption and have little cash (if any) in the bank. A recent survey indicated that 60% of the respondents would have to get a loan or sell something in order to pay an unexpected $400 expense. In that environment---where is your consumer growth going to come from?

(07-06-2017 03:56 PM)Godzilla Wrote:  Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

Most Boomers just didn't save enough for retirement. Another factor hurting the economy is the smaller numbers of Americans born since the boomer generation. Abortion has reduced the number of American consumers by millions. I believe the current economic problems in America are directly related to the liberal social policies that have been adopted over the past 60 years.

(07-06-2017 07:26 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Its not just student debt. Its total debt---including public debt. It creates a drag on the economy. The worst debt is the crap load of auto debt out there in the hands of some pretty high risk borrowers with 7 year loans they can barely afford (many of whom are upside down on their vehicles).

Keep an eye on automobile defaults. They are currently rising and I think thats going to be the first crack in the veneer of financial stability.

Honestly, debt levels are so high and the overall financial system is so leveraged, I really dont see any way around another 2008 financial crisis. Essentially, growth rates cant really increase until the consumer deleverages. Reagan's policies were correct---but they also were successful because the environment of the time was conducive to growth. The saving rate was high at the time and the average household had little consumer debt. That was the perfect environment for consumption led economic growth.

That's not the situation today. The majority of households are leveraged to hilt from over consumption and have little cash (if any) in the bank. A recent survey indicated that 60% of the respondents would have to get a loan or sell something in order to pay an unexpected $400 expense. In that environment---where is your consumer growth going to come from?

Sad, but I believe you are correct. Most people just can't live within their means. They want the latest and greatest stuff and push off actually having to pay for it. Compounding interest through debt is hurting most Americans, when they should be using it to save for a comfortable life.

(07-06-2017 03:56 PM)Godzilla Wrote:  Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

I think that many X'ers and Meliennials have been taught they are too good to work in trade jobs. Not to mention---trade jobs are real work. The work ethic isnt quite the same in many younger workers. I was recently told that the average age of a plumber is 62. In a few years, we're going to pay more for a plumber than a lawyer. Alot of folks in college would probably be better off becoming skilled labor (like a plumber or auto mechanic). Cant outsource that stuff to Singapore. If you went into debt for a degree is in art or theatre costume design---you probably would have been better off with a good automobile mechanics certification. There are plenty of auto mechanics making 60K+---many make 6 figures.

(07-06-2017 09:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-06-2017 03:56 PM)Godzilla Wrote:  Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

I think that many X'ers and Meliennials have been taught they are too good to work in trade jobs. Not to mention---trade jobs are real work. The work ethic isnt quite the same in many younger workers. I was recently told that the average age of a plumber is 62. In a few years, we're going to pay more for a plumber than a lawyer. Alot of folks in college would probably be better off becoming skilled labor (like a plumber or auto mechanic). Cant outsource that stuff to Singapore. If you went into debt for a degree is in art or theatre costume design---you probably would have been better off with a good automobile mechanics certification. There are plenty of auto mechanics making 60K+---many make 6 figures.

I have two degrees in Art, and I'm doing quite well thank you. The problem is too many are receiving these types of degrees and don't have the talent or business background to be successful with those types of degrees. Plus, there are a lot of bad, starving artists out there. But, I agree that most students majoring in the arts need to be more practical.

(07-06-2017 10:04 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(07-06-2017 09:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-06-2017 03:56 PM)Godzilla Wrote:  Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

I think that many X'ers and Meliennials have been taught they are too good to work in trade jobs. Not to mention---trade jobs are real work. The work ethic isnt quite the same in many younger workers. I was recently told that the average age of a plumber is 62. In a few years, we're going to pay more for a plumber than a lawyer. Alot of folks in college would probably be better off becoming skilled labor (like a plumber or auto mechanic). Cant outsource that stuff to Singapore. If you went into debt for a degree is in art or theatre costume design---you probably would have been better off with a good automobile mechanics certification. There are plenty of auto mechanics making 60K+---many make 6 figures.

I have two degrees in Art, and I'm doing quite well thank you. The problem is too many are receiving these types of degrees and don't have the talent or business background to be successful with those types of degrees. Plus, there are a lot of bad, starving artists out there. But, I agree that most students majoring in the arts need to be more practical.

Yeah i also get tired of people beating up on liberal arts degrees. College is as much learning how to reason and think critically as it is about vocational training degrees. Most jobs train people to do specific tasks anyway. I know a decorated fighter pilot with a degree in English. Sure he could have gotten a degree in engineering but would he have had the same perceptions into human nature that made him a great leader. Maybe. But yeah if somebody gets one of the ridulous naval gazing degrees that have been contrived in the last 20 years like swahili interpretation of trans gender polar bears, i agree.

Not all liberal arts degrees are equal.

(07-06-2017 03:56 PM)Godzilla Wrote:  Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

I don't believe that the amount of debt is the big problem (though it is a problem)... I believe the selection of majors and schools is the problem.

UB is a top 50 engineering school, and it was about 30 minutes from my home. So I took out some loans for the near by state school while some of my classmates decided to shell out for RIT because "College is about experiencing life and getting away from home"

But at least in their case they went into solid degree programs. Don't get me started on the kids who go into debt for $VICTIM studies

(07-06-2017 03:37 PM)miko33 Wrote:  This may be structural for awhile until a number of factors are addressed:

• Education - Poor degree program selection, high cost of tuition greatly exceeding inflation and high student loan debt
• Smarter consumers - Socking more money into savings, with current savings rate at 5.5% vs 2.2% prior to the 2008 recession
• Aging population - GenX bottleneck plus large baby boomer population going into retirement
• Medical care - exceeding the cost of inflation with obamacare not controlling costs and quality like it promised
  

More detail below.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/06/hopes-of-...-fade.html

GenX bottleneck? Please explain.

(07-06-2017 03:56 PM)Godzilla Wrote:  Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

You two are a real barrel of laughs.

(07-06-2017 07:26 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Keep an eye on automobile defaults...

You mean people who can't afford children, homes, or their student loan payments shouldn't buy brand new, $35k piece of schit cars that cost $1,000 per repair?

Your kidding...

(07-06-2017 09:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think that many X'ers and Meliennials have been taught they are too good to work in trade jobs.

There a lot of jobs making participation trophies.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/07/us-nonfar...-2017.html

Interestingly for June, economy added 222,000 non farming jobs. But the other pressures in OP still exist.

Don't go to college and get a degree that is not in market demand unless you have rich parents or plan on being in debt for the rest of you life. You have to be a dolt today to not understand this.

(07-06-2017 09:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-06-2017 03:56 PM)Godzilla Wrote:  Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

I think that many X'ers and Meliennials have been taught they are too good to work in trade jobs. Not to mention---trade jobs are real work. The work ethic isnt quite the same in many younger workers. I was recently told that the average age of a plumber is 62. In a few years, we're going to pay more for a plumber than a lawyer. Alot of folks in college would probably be better off becoming skilled labor (like a plumber or auto mechanic). Cant outsource that stuff to Singapore. If you went into debt for a degree is in art or theatre costume design---you probably would have been better off with a good automobile mechanics certification. There are plenty of auto mechanics making 60K+---many make 6 figures.

I quit my digital marketing job and started a company that does concrete floor refinishing (anything from garage floors to factories).

My boss, who is my age, was apparently making fun of me to one of my other co-workers, basically saying "yeah you go have fun doing back breaking labor."

I 've done $50,000+ in revenue in the last 30 days with 55% margins. Jokes on him.

(07-07-2017 09:07 AM)Niner National Wrote:  

(07-06-2017 09:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-06-2017 03:56 PM)Godzilla Wrote:  Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

I think that many X'ers and Meliennials have been taught they are too good to work in trade jobs. Not to mention---trade jobs are real work. The work ethic isnt quite the same in many younger workers. I was recently told that the average age of a plumber is 62. In a few years, we're going to pay more for a plumber than a lawyer. Alot of folks in college would probably be better off becoming skilled labor (like a plumber or auto mechanic). Cant outsource that stuff to Singapore. If you went into debt for a degree is in art or theatre costume design---you probably would have been better off with a good automobile mechanics certification. There are plenty of auto mechanics making 60K+---many make 6 figures.

I quit my digital marketing job and started a company that does concrete floor refinishing (anything from garage floors to factories).

My boss, who is my age, was apparently making fun of me to one of my other co-workers, basically saying "yeah you go have fun doing back breaking labor."

I 've done $50,000+ in revenue in the last 30 days with 55% margins. Jokes on him.

lol. Well done!

Stop going to college.

(07-07-2017 09:07 AM)Niner National Wrote:  

(07-06-2017 09:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-06-2017 03:56 PM)Godzilla Wrote:  Student loan debt has surpassed $1.3 Trillion, second only to mortgage debt. Talk about a disincentive to take entrepreneurial chances before you are bogged down with familial responsibilities. It doesn't help that boomers and gen xers have depressed wage growth so most people can't retire at 65. The absolute desolation of the manufacturing industry by automation and the inability for older workers to retire from many trade professions basically forces the young into college if they want a decent job. In order to accommodate the new dynamics in the work force we need to get this debt under control so these college kids can create the jobs they couldn't otherwise get.

I think that many X'ers and Meliennials have been taught they are too good to work in trade jobs. Not to mention---trade jobs are real work. The work ethic isnt quite the same in many younger workers. I was recently told that the average age of a plumber is 62. In a few years, we're going to pay more for a plumber than a lawyer. Alot of folks in college would probably be better off becoming skilled labor (like a plumber or auto mechanic). Cant outsource that stuff to Singapore. If you went into debt for a degree is in art or theatre costume design---you probably would have been better off with a good automobile mechanics certification. There are plenty of auto mechanics making 60K+---many make 6 figures.

I quit my digital marketing job and started a company that does concrete floor refinishing (anything from garage floors to factories).

My boss, who is my age, was apparently making fun of me to one of my other co-workers, basically saying "yeah you go have fun doing back breaking labor."

I 've done $50,000+ in revenue in the last 30 days with 55% margins. Jokes on him.

I love it!

(07-07-2017 08:25 AM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Don't go to college and get a degree that is not in market demand unless you have rich parents or plan on being in debt for the rest of you life. You have to be a dolt today to not understand this.

Which goes to prove that there are MANY dolts out there. I know my neighbor payed their sons through college majoring in English. He can't pass the certification exam to be a teacher. He's living upstairs in their house now. He could get a job with daddy but I guess he doesn't want to work.