(06-27-2017 09:28 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 03:32 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 03:19 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 02:03 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 01:46 PM)micahandme Wrote:  Problem with that theory is that the Pac-12 and B1G don't WANT much of the Big 12. "Carving them up" isn't in their plans. There are 4 tiers of desirability.
UT
OU and KU
OkSt, Baylor, TTech
Iowa State, TCU, WVU

The Pac-12 and Big Ten don't want anything below tier 2. They might take 1 or 2 schools below tier 2...if it means getting 2 or 3 from tier 1 or 2. But only if they are scoring big from the top 3 (Texas, OU, Kansas).

But two crazy conferences of let's say...Pac-12 plus Texas, OU, OkSt, TTech...and then Big 10 plus Missouri and Kansas...both at 16 could work the way you described. Just don't be plotting out two 20 team conferences (unless you are going to carve up the ACC).

Just curious, the re-Alignment appears to be about football only. Why does Kansas keep being mentioned? I understand if Basketball was the money driver but it is football. I see Kansas much like UCONN, great basketball school but does it meet the football needs. I actually would say I think UCONN would be the better choice for the B10 instead of Kanss. UCONN helps with the New England Market for the B10. As I know some UCONN posters will note, I believe UCONN would be behind other states for the ACC but if it was between UCONN and Kansas, I would say the ACC takes UCONN hands down. Is there something I am not understanding about Kansas Football? I typically think KSU for football and KU for Basketball.

Kansas is a blueblood basketball program that brings in a lot of tournament money, plus they are an AAU school....UConn is not.
Kansas has had good footbali teams, ten years ago they were in the Orange bowl and they are spending $300,000,000 on their football stadium

Again, I am not a UCONN fan, but all the same can beside for UCONN except the AAU. UCONN made the Fiesta bowl in 2011.

That 2010 UConn football team finished the regular season 8-4 and lost to Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl. So the record is 8-5. It shows how bad Big East was and not deserving a BCS bid.

2010 was the year that broke the Big East's back. 8-4 Uconn went to the Fiesta Bowl when 12-1 and #9 Boise St and #11 13-1 Nevada did not. TCU (#3) from the MWC had to earn their Rose Bowl by going 12-0 in the MWC. They then beat Wisconsin & finished 13-0. Boise beat Utah 26-3 in the Las Vegas Bowl and Nevada beat Boston College in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. Uconn finished 8-5 after the Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl loss. That was the year when every single realignment theory was floated and conference tv contract money became a bigger story than the actual games.

what is the purpose of national network & 6 local networks
i'd imagine start up & revenue is being taken from national network

(06-27-2017 10:11 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 09:52 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Impossible for the big 12 to pull PAC 12 schools but I could see the big 10 do it. They could expand with up to 10 PAC 12 schools or just 1 with the Colorado and Kansas combo. The pc stuff coming out of ca is past crazy and might limit things

I did not even think about that. Currently, Ca added more states that "Gov't" can't travel to states with Texas just being added. I never thought about CA basically making a raid on the B12 by the PAC 12 impossible. I think the four schools that were thought likely to try a P12 jump would be TX, TT, OU and OSU. Seems Ca just knocked out Tx and it is not Oklahoma is a deep blue state. I have never gave thought to B12 trying to go after AZ, ASU, Utah and possibly try and get back Co but that would not be a bad strategy. Also, I could see that keeping the P5 alive. I could see the B12 implode but never P12. P12 could take Boise, Nevada, SDSU and Air Force as replacements.

Also, PLEADING REQUEST NOT TO MAKE THIS POLITICAL just the impact of passed state laws not if law is moral or not!

I don't think that Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, or the California schools would add anybody if Utah, Colorado, and the Arizona schools left.

The Pac 8 would work just fine, and it would be a great conference.

I think when we end up seeing an 8-team playoff, with the consolation of the P5 into the P4, we get the assimilation of the Conference Championship Games into a new playoff structure. Divisional winners from the P4 will all get a guaranteed spot in the playoff, whereby 8-teams get slotted into it.

For example, you could have the B1G Semifinal between the East and West (say, Michigan vs. Wisconsin), the ACC Semifinal between the Atlantic and Coastal (say, Florida State vs. Miami), the SEC Semifinal between the East and West (say, Florida and Alabama) and the PAC-16 Semifinal between the North and South (say, Stanford and USC). The #1 team would then play the #4 team, and the #2 would play the #3. Then, finally, you would have the College Football Championship Game.

Obviously, the Big 12 would get eliminated (most likely due to realignment) and the G5 would be officially left out, but this would appear where the trend has been building for the past decade. If the P4 is promised more money as a collective (with the removal of one of the conferences), you could see the B1G take in Iowa State (as well as Kansas), the SEC take TCU and Oklahoma State, the PAC-16 take Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Houston, and the ACC take West Virginia and Notre Dame (as a full-member). Kansas State and Baylor would get the UConn/UC/USF treatment and get demoted to the American.

The TV people will have the final say on what happens in about 5-7 years. If you want to be part of the group, you better get your ratings up.

(07-02-2017 07:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I think when we end up seeing an 8-team playoff, with the consolation of the P5 into the P4, we get the assimilation of the Conference Championship Games into a new playoff structure. Divisional winners from the P4 will all get a guaranteed spot in the playoff, whereby 8-teams get slotted into it.

For example, you could have the B1G Semifinal between the East and West (say, Michigan vs. Wisconsin), the ACC Semifinal between the Atlantic and Coastal (say, Florida State vs. Miami), the SEC Semifinal between the East and West (say, Florida and Alabama) and the PAC-16 Semifinal between the North and South (say, Stanford and USC). The #1 team would then play the #4 team, and the #2 would play the #3. Then, finally, you would have the College Football Championship Game.

Obviously, the Big 12 would get eliminated (most likely due to realignment) and the G5 would be officially left out, but this would appear where the trend has been building for the past decade. If the P4 is promised more money as a collective (with the removal of one of the conferences), you could see the B1G take in Iowa State (as well as Kansas), the SEC take TCU and Oklahoma State, the PAC-16 take Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Houston, and the ACC take West Virginia and Notre Dame (as a full-member). Kansas State and Baylor would get the UConn/UC/USF treatment and get demoted to the American.

I propose a 9 or 10 team play-off system. The lowest ranked P4 conference champion will play one extra game against the best of G5 which might be one team, or winner of the two top G5 team playoff.

(06-27-2017 09:24 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  Big 10:

Pacific - UCLA, California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona State
West - Colorado, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
Central - Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State
East - Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Penn State, Maryland

ACC

Atlantic - North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Continental - Arizona, Utah, Louisville, Florida State, Miami (FL)
American - Notre Dame, Texas, TCU, USC, Stanford
Coastal - Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Boston College

SEC

West - BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Central - Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
East - Kentucky, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, NC State
South - Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida

Big 12
West - Oregon State, Washington State, San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Boise State, UNLV
East - Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, Colorado State, UTEP, Rice, New Mexico

American
West - Navy, SMU, Houston, Memphis, Tulsa, Tulane, Northern Illinois
East - Cincinnati, USF, UCF, East Carolina, Temple, Connecticut, UMass

The Big 12 and American are allowed a 14th game between their champions for consideration to be included in the playoff, but the winner is not guaranteed a playoff berth.

A DavidST type of post.

(06-28-2017 12:10 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  what is the purpose of national network & 6 local networks
i'd imagine start up & revenue is being taken from national network

Exposure. Academics gets exposure and the minor sports that don't get on the national network get exposure. Its a recruiting tool for athletes and students.

(06-27-2017 10:49 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 09:14 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 09:27 AM)YNot Wrote:  http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...-shuffling

2023 is when the B1G TV deal is up for renewal and one year before PAC deal and SEC's Tier 1 deal (ie, CBS Game of the Week). Two years before B12 expiration.

Discusses potential new distribution models - which would likely favor fan bases, with less focus on media markets.

Refers to several quotes from commissioners and AD's that realignment talks have quieted and will likely remain quiet until then. But, everyone is watching and concerned about the media rights deals. Lists B12 and PAC 12 as the most vulnerable, but suggest that the PAC may be the conference most susceptible to realignment come 2023.

According to ESPN, B12 school gets $34.8 million each while Pac12 school gets $21.7 million each. And Pac12 is slowly becoming the worst P5 conference. Big12 should use the fact to raid Pac12 schools. The best combination of the two will be named Big18, which includes all Big12 schools and Pac12 minus Oregon State, Washington State and Arizona State, also asking ACC to take West Virginia. Big18 should become No. 2 conferences just second to SEC.

But they were overpaid for their current contract. Everyone realizes that won't happen again next time. Plus I would say 90% of that value is derived from 3 schools.

Everyone who hopes for a P4 fantasizes that the Big 12 won't get paid well again, in spite of their ratings which are better than the Pac 12, possibly better than the ACC and not far behind the Big 10. And despite that they have athletic departments with average revenues not far behind the SEC and Big 10 and comfortably ahead of the Pac 12 and ACC and attendance also comfortably ahead of the Pac 12 and ACC. And they were paid in the open market when their Fox deal came up and in a renewal by ESPN with TCU and WVU on board.

There's really zero basis for your comments in the first two sentences.

(07-02-2017 07:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I think when we end up seeing an 8-team playoff, with the consolation of the P5 into the P4, we get the assimilation of the Conference Championship Games into a new playoff structure. Divisional winners from the P4 will all get a guaranteed spot in the playoff, whereby 8-teams get slotted into it.

For example, you could have the B1G Semifinal between the East and West (say, Michigan vs. Wisconsin), the ACC Semifinal between the Atlantic and Coastal (say, Florida State vs. Miami), the SEC Semifinal between the East and West (say, Florida and Alabama) and the PAC-16 Semifinal between the North and South (say, Stanford and USC). The #1 team would then play the #4 team, and the #2 would play the #3. Then, finally, you would have the College Football Championship Game.

Obviously, the Big 12 would get eliminated (most likely due to realignment) and the G5 would be officially left out, but this would appear where the trend has been building for the past decade. If the P4 is promised more money as a collective (with the removal of one of the conferences), you could see the B1G take in Iowa State (as well as Kansas), the SEC take TCU and Oklahoma State, the PAC-16 take Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Houston, and the ACC take West Virginia and Notre Dame (as a full-member). Kansas State and Baylor would get the UConn/UC/USF treatment and get demoted to the American.

The TV people and the SEC have made it clear that they prefer wild cards in the playoff. The P4 with ccgs being the first round may be clean and neat, but the real world is not clean and neat. And TV and the SEC have significant say on how the model is set up. TV has veto power and SEC almost has veto power. SEC and B1G together do.

(07-03-2017 10:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  Everyone who hopes for a P4 fantasizes that the Big 12 won't get paid well again, in spite of their ratings which are better than the Pac 12, possibly better than the ACC and not far behind the Big 10. And despite that they have athletic departments with average revenues not far behind the SEC and Big 10 and comfortably ahead of the Pac 12 and ACC and attendance also comfortably ahead of the Pac 12 and ACC. And they were paid in the open market when their Fox deal came up and in a renewal by ESPN with TCU and WVU on board.

There's really zero basis for your comments in the first two sentences.

Two facts are basis:

Fact: Big 12 media partners refused to pay for the addition of programs to strengthen the conference. Conversely ESPN and Fox paid The Big 12 not to expand.

Fact: Big 12 programs refuse to sign a GOR extension. If everything is so great in The Big 12 why not sign an extension and end speculation?

The Big 12 since its inception has been built on shifting sands. Nothing has happened to change that.
CJ

Fact: The sports media partners did not see two teams at this time worthy of paying 30 million a year.

Fact: Why sign an extension of the GOR until you know what the new contract is going to be.

Fact: The Big 12 is finally on more solid ground. Each of the schools pull their own weight. The TV ratings are solid. The new championship game will be held this year.

Fact: Some people just want to see others fail.

(07-03-2017 11:47 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(07-03-2017 10:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  Everyone who hopes for a P4 fantasizes that the Big 12 won't get paid well again, in spite of their ratings which are better than the Pac 12, possibly better than the ACC and not far behind the Big 10. And despite that they have athletic departments with average revenues not far behind the SEC and Big 10 and comfortably ahead of the Pac 12 and ACC and attendance also comfortably ahead of the Pac 12 and ACC. And they were paid in the open market when their Fox deal came up and in a renewal by ESPN with TCU and WVU on board.

There's really zero basis for your comments in the first two sentences.

Two facts are basis:

Fact: Big 12 media partners refused to pay for the addition of programs to strengthen the conference. Conversely ESPN and Fox paid The Big 12 not to expand.

Fact: Big 12 programs refuse to sign a GOR extension. If everything is so great in The Big 12 why not sign an extension and end speculation?

The Big 12 since its inception has been built on shifting sands. Nothing has happened to change that.
CJ

I think the first "fact" has a stabilizing effect for the Big 12, FWIW.

I think the Big 12 is more stable than the conventional wisdom. Good revenue, traditional rivals, fertile recruiting, deep pocket money. And I don't think the market is favoring expansion at this point with a status quo rights fee pot and the Big 10 and SEC already at a big size that has some members uncomfortable at getting bigger.

Not sure this is talked about much, but I think the biggest impetus to expand might be once one of the Big 10 or SEC falls behind the other.

The Big12 is giving a 12-team payout for 10 teams. That will be corrected in the next contract. Less money will probably exacerbate OU and/or UT's desire to jump leagues.

One big issue I see is ESPN's need to cut long-term liabilities. That could cause them to low-ball the B12, regardless of whether anyone leaves. It's too unstable of an investment. All they really care about is keeping UT under their umbrella, and OU to a lesser extent. If ESPN comes in low, Fox could bid the whole thing but it's still likely going to be less than the sweetheart deal they have now.

(07-03-2017 01:05 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  The Big12 is giving a 12-team payout for 10 teams. That will be corrected in the next contract. Less money will probably exacerbate OU and/or UT's desire to jump leagues.

One big issue I see is ESPN's need to cut long-term liabilities. That could cause them to low-ball the B12, regardless of whether anyone leaves. It's too unstable of an investment. All they really care about is keeping UT under their umbrella, and OU to a lesser extent. If ESPN comes in low, Fox could bid the whole thing but it's still likely going to be less than the sweetheart deal they have now.

I think having 10 members will be an advantage in the long run. I think 14/16/18 is too many.

(07-03-2017 02:37 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  

(07-03-2017 01:05 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  The Big12 is giving a 12-team payout for 10 teams. That will be corrected in the next contract. Less money will probably exacerbate OU and/or UT's desire to jump leagues.

One big issue I see is ESPN's need to cut long-term liabilities. That could cause them to low-ball the B12, regardless of whether anyone leaves. It's too unstable of an investment. All they really care about is keeping UT under their umbrella, and OU to a lesser extent. If ESPN comes in low, Fox could bid the whole thing but it's still likely going to be less than the sweetheart deal they have now.

I think having 10 members will be an advantage in the long run. I think 14/16/18 is too many.

Depends on what business you are in.

For the G5 10-12 is the optimal for revenue distribution in the current market.

8-10 used to be the sweet spot for conferences when TV was run by the NCAA.

Right now beyond the logistical constraints, I think 20-28 could be the sweet spot for a P5 league, because of the logistical issues 12-14 seems to work well.

(06-27-2017 03:51 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Interesting the much of the G5 has deals expiring 2019-20 with 2023ish looking like P5 moving date (historically move happen ahead of negotiations).

G5 could see some rumbles as early as next year then do it all again in four more years.

How many times have I pointed out that next year is the year the CUSA schools can split into 2 leagues with autobids intact for both?

Which comes first? CUSA and the SBC agree to swap schools or the CFP Money Gods agree to a plan for CUSA to split and kill the SBC keeping the mouths to feed at the same number?

The money paid by the networks to keep the Big 12 was designed to save them some money in the short term and then make it easier to dismantle when the GOR expires.

I expect FOX and ESPN will both low ball and NBC and CBS will not bid. Without a lucrative offer on the table the big players will shop for new conferences while the rest are left flapping in the wind.

(07-02-2017 07:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I think when we end up seeing an 8-team playoff, with the consolation of the P5 into the P4, we get the assimilation of the Conference Championship Games into a new playoff structure. Divisional winners from the P4 will all get a guaranteed spot in the playoff, whereby 8-teams get slotted into it.

As much fun as it might be to see the SEC #2 playing the PAC #1, Big Ten #2 playing the ACC #1, etc. in an eight team bracket ... I just really doubt that happens.

- I'm saying 50/50 at best that the Big 12 folds ... it's possible but not nearly as forgone as some on this forum make it out to be
- It explicitly shuts out the rest of the FBS conferences AND Notre Dame ... remember, they own the CFP as much as the P5 do
- The CCG's are conference properties now, and they keep all the money from them ... not sure they'd want to share it with the other P confs

(07-03-2017 03:48 PM)CAJUNNATION Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 03:51 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Interesting the much of the G5 has deals expiring 2019-20 with 2023ish looking like P5 moving date (historically move happen ahead of negotiations).

G5 could see some rumbles as early as next year then do it all again in four more years.

How many times have I pointed out that next year is the year the CUSA schools can split into 2 leagues with autobids intact for both?

Which comes first? CUSA and the SBC agree to swap schools or the CFP Money Gods agree to a plan for CUSA to split and kill the SBC keeping the mouths to feed at the same number?

C-USA will not be able to execute a Big East-style split because the rules that enabled it were replaced. There are no rules for continuity anymore. The only reason the Big East got a pass was that its agreement was drawn up under the old rules.

Even without that obstacle in place, any new FBS conference would not be party to the CFP contract, and would lose at least $600,000 annually in CFP revenues.