(06-21-2017 10:52 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The three major issues with electric vehicles are that range is limited, recharge times are long, and batteries are very expensive and must be replaced periodically. Those issues have to be resolved before there will be any sort of mass conversion to electric.

With a 100+ mile range, 100k mile guarantee on batteries, and full recharge at least overnight ... a big chunk of passenger vehicle miles (metro commutes) would be covered ...

The vehicle you describe would be of no use to probably 40-50% of our population--including me.

Much past investment in alternatives has also been wasted. That's why they call it 'speculation'.

(06-21-2017 10:55 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 10:52 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The three major issues with electric vehicles are that range is limited, recharge times are long, and batteries are very expensive and must be replaced periodically. Those issues have to be resolved before there will be any sort of mass conversion to electric.

With a 100+ mile range, 100k mile guarantee on batteries, and full recharge at least overnight ... a big chunk of passenger vehicle miles (metro commutes) would be covered ...

The vehicle you describe would be of no use to probably 40-50% of our population--including me.

I'd need 2. That one, plus one that gets me from my office to my HQ, much less to my kids colleges.

Or I buy a motorcycle to commute for 1/10th the cost of an electric car.

(06-21-2017 10:55 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The vehicle you describe would be of no use to probably 40-50% of our population--including me.

Doubt that 40-50% of people with cars take only trips greater than 100 miles.

(06-21-2017 10:57 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Much past investment in alternatives has also been wasted. That's why they call it 'speculation'.

So is your point that oil companies should invest trillions into new oil production capital projects, to develop new fields, when that oil won't be needed?

(06-21-2017 10:52 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The three major issues with electric vehicles are that range is limited, recharge times are long, and batteries are very expensive and must be replaced periodically. Those issues have to be resolved before there will be any sort of mass conversion to electric.

With a 100+ mile range, 100k mile guarantee on batteries, and full recharge at least overnight ... a big chunk of passenger vehicle miles (metro commutes) would be covered ...

A full recharge overnight does not compare to 5 minutes at a gas station.

Take your electric vehicle to the dealership at 90K miles and tell them the batteries need to be replaced, and see if you drive out of there without owing thousands of dollars.

(06-21-2017 11:14 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  A full recharge overnight does not compare to 5 minutes at a gas station.

Take your electric vehicle to the dealership at 90K miles and tell them the batteries need to be replaced, and see if you drive out of there without owing thousands of dollars.

My point wasn't to compare it to a refill. My point was that for people driving metro commutes, an overnight recharge meets the need.

Not sure your point on the last sentence. Are you saying that dealerships are going to be reluctant to replace expensive components that are technically still under warranty? Probably true. Would be exactly the same for a powertrain warranty on a current vehicle.

(06-21-2017 10:52 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The three major issues with electric vehicles are that range is limited, recharge times are long, and batteries are very expensive and must be replaced periodically. Those issues have to be resolved before there will be any sort of mass conversion to electric.

With a 100+ mile range, 100k mile guarantee on batteries, and full recharge at least overnight ... a big chunk of passenger vehicle miles (metro commutes) would be covered ...

Not really. I know that seems reasonable---but think of it like a person BUYING a car. A buyer see it as a $30K investment in his mode of transportation. Currently, the average new car buyer already has to finance their auto for 6-7 years. While the vast majority of your trips will be well under 100 miles---you're going to own it for 7 years---there are going to be a number of occasions over that period where you will need a greater than 100 mile range. All else being equal, few consumers are going to pull the trigger on a $30K investment in a car incapable of long range trips. You'd have to get that car in the $10-15K price range (or less) so it could becomes a viable option as a families second vehicle for it to begin to generate much volume--and even then, Im not sure how popular it would be (probably, not very).

Thats not even considering the issues with battery replacement or increased home electricity bills. Another thing I never hear discussed---in the south, A/C is a MUST. What does running the A/C do to a predicted 100 mile range? My guess is it vastly reduces said range---but Ive never seen any figures on that issue. Electric cars might be much farther from viable usage in the south than in the north.

Oil will be viable until oil runs out. OPEC and other sources will lower the prices as alternatives come on line to keep oil competitive. The ME is swimming in the stuff and will so for centuries. Oil will remain the major player long after we all are dead and gone.

(06-21-2017 09:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 09:04 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I think it makes perfect sense: as more and more people switch to electricity as the primary source of automotive transportation (cars, light trucks, buses, and rail), the world will simply need less and less oil.

Natural gas will displace oil as the primary fossil fuel energy source.

Oil is used for more than just fuel in a gas tank.

Plastic is oil based. With no oil, your car, cell phone and computer equipment don't exist in their present configurations. Cars would have to go back to being heavy steel, probably requiring more power than batteries could provide.

And in the MFG of Windmills?

(06-21-2017 09:44 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 09:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  Oil is used for more than just fuel in a gas tank.

Plastic is oil based. With no oil, your car, cell phone and computer equipment don't exist in their present configurations. Cars would have to go back to being heavy steel, probably requiring more power than batteries could provide.

I made no claim that oil production would go to zero. Also specifically framed the discussion in terms of energy source, not plastics.

(06-21-2017 09:36 AM)Crebman Wrote:  You do realize that you get Natural Gas out of the ground the same way you get oil out of the ground?? No?

What is your point?

How is the US/World going to produce said electricity that they will need to power all the stuff that we need powered?

Also, until there is better fuel cell technology, people in this big country will need cars that can move distances beyond battery life and take quick refuels.

(06-21-2017 11:16 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 11:14 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  A full recharge overnight does not compare to 5 minutes at a gas station.

Take your electric vehicle to the dealership at 90K miles and tell them the batteries need to be replaced, and see if you drive out of there without owing thousands of dollars.

My point wasn't to compare it to a refill. My point was that for people driving metro commutes, an overnight recharge meets the need.

Not sure your point on the last sentence. Are you saying that dealerships are going to be reluctant to replace expensive components that are technically still under warranty? Probably true. Would be exactly the same for a powertrain warranty on a current vehicle.

Metro commutes arent a reality for many vehicle owners. The cities that have heavy metro commutes have some of the lowest auto ownerships in america.

(06-21-2017 11:20 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Not really. I know that seems reasonable---but think of it like a person BUYING a car. A buyer see it as a $30K investment in his mode of transportation. Currently, the average new car buyer already has to finance their auto for 6-7 years. While the vast majority of your trips will be well under 100 miles---you're going to own it for 7 years---there are going to be a number of occasions over that period where you will need a greater than 100 mile range. All else being equal, few consumers are going to pull the trigger on a $30K investment in a car incapable of long range trips. You'd have to get that car in the $10-15K price range (or less) so it could becomes a viable option as a families second vehicle for it to begin to generate much volume--and even then, Im not sure how popular it would be (probably, not very). [quote='Attackcoog' pid='14408942' dateline='1498062038']

This is a good counter-argument. I would say for single car households, even at a $30k price point (which is very competitive for even mid-sized sedans, that I've seen lately ...), you win the argument until the range gets higher, at least on all-electrics. Hybrids though ...

But for dual (or higher) car households, particularly when the main purpose of the second car is to facilitate a work commute ... I think I'm still winning that argument.

[quote='Attackcoog' pid='14408942' dateline='1498062038']Thats not even considering the issues with battery replacement or increased home electricity bills. Another thing I never hear discussed---in the south, A/C is a MUST. What does running the A/C do to a predicted 100 mile range? My guess is it vastly reduces said range---but Ive never seen any figures on that issue. Electric cars might be much farther from viable usage in the south than in the north.

The battery replacement issue has to be at the same point as a powertrain warranty, frankly. For my, anyway.

Would hope that range estimates are with full electrical load running. But it is a valid challenge.

(06-21-2017 11:27 AM)GrayBeard Wrote:  How is the US/World going to produce said electricity that they will need to power all the stuff that we need powered?

The point is that there aren't going to be oil or gasoline burning power plants. So that doesn't help the oil companies.

(06-21-2017 11:32 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Metro commutes arent a reality for many vehicle owners. The cities that have heavy metro commutes have some of the lowest auto ownerships in america.

Would wager this isn't even close to true in most major US metros. Certainly is no where close to true in Mpls, I can tell you.

(06-21-2017 11:47 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 11:32 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Metro commutes arent a reality for many vehicle owners. The cities that have heavy metro commutes have some of the lowest auto ownerships in america.

Would wager this isn't even close to true in most major US metros. Certainly is no where close to true in Mpls, I can tell you.

Thats one of your problems. You see the world in your little bubble. Word of advice; dont wager on that.

If the metro has heavy metro commutes ... that means many people are driving to and from work, less than 100mi per day.

That's the definition.

We're not talking about reducing congestion. We're talking about converting all those (single occupancy) passenger vehicles from ICE to some form of electric.

(06-21-2017 11:51 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  If the metro has heavy metro commutes ... that means many people are driving to and from work, less than 100mi per day.

That's the definition.

NYC has very heavy metro commutes. People dont do it in their own cars.

So change the taxi's to electric.

Hasn't changed my point, or the end result.

(06-21-2017 11:03 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 10:55 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The vehicle you describe would be of no use to probably 40-50% of our population--including me.

Doubt that 40-50% of people with cars take only trips greater than 100 miles.

Your ignorance of what occurs outside of Minneapolis is staggering.

So every time you get in your car, you drive no less than 100 miles?

Words have meaning. I can only respond to what is written.

(06-21-2017 12:00 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  So change the taxi's to electric.

Hasn't changed my point, or the end result.

I'm not sure that would work like you think it would. Hybrid maybe, but pure electric would cause too much downtime for the cabbies.