XLance
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I Root For: Carolina
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RE: Mike Perrin Will Remain Interim A.D. at Texas Through the 2017-8 Season.
(04-20-2017 03:59 PM)JRsec Wrote: (04-20-2017 03:26 PM)XLance Wrote: (04-20-2017 09:30 AM)JRsec Wrote: (04-20-2017 07:14 AM)XLance Wrote: (04-20-2017 01:02 AM)JRsec Wrote: X, if you want a safe, long term secured, prosperous ACC then this is what you need to do. The original deal plus. You guys get Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Notre Dame goes all in.
We get Virginia Tech and N.C. State and Miami and we pick up T.C.U.
You get 4 brands and finally get enough cash from ESPN for it that you can compete economically and have a successful network. You now have an 18 school ACC with a 6 team Western Division.
You add Cincinnati and Baylor to go to 20.
We add West Virginia and Iowa State to do the same.
Now we each have 20 and the Big 12 is no more and all worthwhile expansion candidates from the East and Midwest are gone.
ACC:
Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia
Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Cincinnati, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Notre Dame
Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina
SEC:
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, N.C. State
Alabama, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, L.S.U., Mississippi, T.C.U., Texas A&M
Iowa State, Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Or let's just wait 5 years and do the more profitable thing. The SEC goes to 16 with the Oklahomas. You guys take Texas & Baylor all in and keep N.D. as a partial. And we call it a day and leave Kansas to the Big 10 if they want them. Who knows maybe the PAC would be interested in T.C.U., Kansas, Texas Tech and Iowa State. That is two AAU schools and entry into the Texas market including DFW.
JR, with all due respect to your vast knowledge, know that the Board of Governors and the State Legislature of the State of North Carolina behind them, is not ever going to let the University and NC State be separated even in conference affiliation as long as the University is a public institution.
I can not speak to the Commonwealth of Virginia, but based on some of the VT people I have met, there is too much political benefit for them not to fight separation from UVa tooth and nail.
So I would suggest that you go back to the drawing board, now and in the future, for your scenarios that include NC State and Virginia Tech as members of the SEC.
X, I created a convoluted option #1 to simply accentuate why the simplest solution is the best. N.C. State has now been outpaced by our numbers. They don't do it for us any longer. Virginia Tech would be a fixer upper for us, but might still be doable. The model has rapidly been flipping from a market driven one to a content focused one. I would say Florida State and Clemson were trending again. But, I seriously doubt that the SEC will solicit the ACC, or that the ACC would solicit us. Should we ever take any of your schools it will be at the urging of the network and it would be because in their models your parts would be worth more elsewhere with some of those schools reaching their zenith of worth in the SEC.
Since we earned 40.1 million in just TV revenue last year and are anticipating 42 this year, the only two candidates that move our needle enough to expand would be Oklahoma and Texas. I would think that if we are pursuing anyone it would be Oklahoma and that their traveling companion would be a school that with Oklahoma benefited our numbers and that the Sooners would have some say as to which of a small number of schools that would be acceptable to us that they would like to have come along.
You see X, what you guys don't grasp is that with a few exceptions that will eventually get picked off, if not by us, then by others, the ACC is being passed by.
We may well wind up with much larger conferences, but fewer top conferences. The consolidation of content, coupled with a push for even more regional conference networks could create a world in which 18 to 24 schools is the norm for a major conference. But it might well also mean that the total number of upper tier schools is closer to 48 than it is to 64.
I think from here the SEC and Big 10 will hit a conference in the 20 school range, but that there will not be a wholesale grab of another conference's schools, but rather a slow cherry picking of the brands they want.
Seriously I don't see Kansas in our future or the Big 10's. I think market wise for a regional network that Virginia and North Carolina as states would still work. Content wise Florida State and Clemson would still work. Obviously from a numbers standpoint Texas and Oklahoma would work. Other than that there isn't much that would interest us. So if we assumed that Duke and North Carolina are worth more together and that either Virginia school gives us that market. Then our optimum model would be for a conference of 20 consisting of the additions of a Virginia school, North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, Texas and Oklahoma. #20 could be the other Virginia school, or maybe Kansas if OU and UT absolutely insisted. That would be a monster economically with the 20th selection being totally a facilitator to the deal and not a school that could get in on its own steam. We would be looking at television revenue in the mid 50's to upper 50's. There would still be 4 P conferences but conferences #3 and #4 would be well behind the first two. That's why I frequently speak of 18. I don't think the SEC would land all of its targets but might well pick up 4. The same is true for the Big 10.
When you think about their region Notre Dame and Virginia make sense from a numbers perspective. They too would like to have essentially the same schools. While the SEC would not say no to Notre Dame I doubt there would a big advantage to them over the Big 10. And you would have to consider the only reason that Duke and North Carolina could land in the SEC is because ESPN might want to retain more control over that branding.
It really doesn't have a thing to do with what the schools may want, but rather where they, and their sports are a business, can make the most money and maintain the most favorable business relationships.
It is also why I say the day is coming when sports conferences will be separate entities from academic associations and that is how it should have been all along. The other arrangement is so ridiculously self limiting that it is untenable. The Big 10 would already have been able to capitalize on what for decades was an advantage for them if they had been able to distinguish between the two. The SEC has been able to play catch up and pass them because we weren't bound by the same understanding of our structure, and many in the ACC will come to realize this.
Being in a conference doesn't help you become AAU. There is no reason that Florida can't share a research grant with Stanford, or Michigan, or Duke if it is in their mutual interest to do so. It has zero to do with sports, which is a regional business only and which due to state budget cuts will operate even more as a business only than ever before.
JR, we don't live in fear in Chapel Hill. If things get consolidated, we'll be among the 48, not only because of who we are but we also control the collegiate market of almost 12 million people. The folks that live with trepidation may include the Wake Forests Texas Techs and the Washington States of the world but it should include Vanderbilt and Mississippi State too, because if things get consolidated down to that level, it won't matter what your current conference affiliation is now because you're getting left out.
Content is only important if you control market. Boise State was great content.......for a while, until they weren't. Alabama was great content until they got so boring and predictable that they became dull.....they still win but they are dull.......I know they still control their market , but did I mention that they were dull?
Oklahoma is great content with a tiny market. But they still retain the cache' of being one of the historical bests. Kansas would be the same on the basketball side. Not too many other football (or basketball) kings have had extended success in a small or shared market. Arkansas before they joined the SEC? BYU at one time? Even small schools like Miami and Notre Dame controlled relatively large markets.
The ACC and Carolina will be fine for the foreseeable future. Obviously ESPN thinks so. We have a lot of guarantees built into our network contracts and we do expect to be dollar competitive with the SECN in short order.
We'll see, as always time will tell, but I wouldn't look for any shrinkage for at least 20 years.
The consolidation would likely weed out schools from every conference. They wouldn't be shut out of competition, but they might find themselves in a conference of much truer peers.
Alabama, dull as they are and I agree with you about that, is still the nations top draw. Some folks love 'em, bless their hearts, and most folks hate 'em, but they draw.
As to the timeline for consolidation it will depend more upon the economy than upon a contract. If things go poorly oversees in France, and then with Europe, and if hostilities continue to ramp up in Korea, or other Asian hot spots like the Sea of Japan, then we could see a consolidation for revenues sake much sooner.
It's really stupid to leave that money on the table now, and forestalling the finish of realignment will only continue to damage the sport, but it will run its course no matter what we think. When it does happen regional definition will be important. So as with all of it we'll see.
Personally, I think ESPN wants to resolve the Texas question by 2019. And doing that might mean also resolving Oklahoma, Kansas, and possibly West Virginia. We can do that between us if need be provided Notre Dame remains independent. If Notre Dame joins the ACC in full (and I'm all for that) then we will need assistance from the PAC to pull it off. Should the ACC take Texas and Baylor, the SEC the two Oklahoma's and the PAC Iowa State, Kansas, T.C.U. and Texas Tech that would do it.
Otherwise N.D. needs to remain independent and you need to take Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and Kansas. We would need to take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and for politics sake possibly Kansas State. T.C.U. and Iowa State would still be there, but both might find another home. Personally I would rather see Iowa State in that 4th slot for us. T.C.U. wont be needed by us if we land OU. They might be available to you instead of Baylor.
Other than that I don't see how ESPN can get it worked out by 2019. Eight dissolves the Big 12 and then only their exit fees need to be settled. If the LHN could be converted into the ACCN it saves them money, and adds to your grand opening in a big way.
Still 4 is pushing us beyond profitability.
I'm not sure that you want a network launch without the nearly 27 million in Texas?
Texas would shorten our time frame for being dollar competitive, for sure.
Notre Dame may concede another game or two to the ACC, but I think they will carry the semi-independent label until the end of their contract. They would need at least 4-5 games that they could schedule independently (Stanford, USC, Navy, B1G school and a cupcake).
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Mike Perrin Will Remain Interim A.D. at Texas Through the 2017-8 Season.
