RE: Which Conference These Schools Be In Today If They Did Not Dropped Football?
To me the biggest potential monkey wrench would be the Big East. Miami, Rutgers, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Temple all joined in 1991 (although Miami was the only one to join as a full member in 1991), plus there was Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse at the I-A (FBS) level. The Big East could have very well decided to become a I-AA (FCS) conference anchored around Villanova, St. John's, Seton Hall, and Providence. In that case the three I-A schools leave, and the Big East adds independent DePaul, Marquette (Horizon, then the MCC), and possibly Butler and Xavier as well.
The eight founding Big East football schools could have either joined another conference, or created a newnconference altogether. Since Virginia Tech was in the Metro, the path of least resistance would have been Metro starting football in 1991:
Southern Miss
Tulane
Louisville
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
Memphis
Miami, FL (was set to join Big East)
Boston College
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Temple (football only)
West Virginia (football only)
Rutgers (football only)
Of course with 13 schools it's possible Temple doesn't get an invite, or perhaps a fourth football-only member like East Carolina is invited. There would also be the possibility of Houston joining as #14 when the Southwest Conference collapsed, as they would be the only one remaining of the first six C-USA football members. Charlotte, South Florida, VCU, Old Dominion, and UAB would have likely stayed in the Sun Belt from 1991 onward, and Little Rock would have joined the American South. With the Sun Belt intact for a few more years, no merger with the American South would have taken place until 1995, when VCU and Old Dominion join the CAA:
South Alabama/UAB
Jacksonville/South Florida
WKU/Charlotte
Arkansas State/UALR
UTPA/Lamar
SW Louisiana/Louisiana Tech
New Orleans
It's pssoible the Sun Belt could have also had Saint Louis since there was no Great Midwest, but most likely they stay in the MCC (Horizon). Houston could have also joined especially if they landed a football-only spot in the Metro.
The Sun Belt began sponsoring football in 2001 more or less directly at the expense of the Big West. This likely would have still been the case, as UAB, South Florida, Arkansas State, Northeast Louisiana, and Southwest Louisiana would have been joined by Middle Tennessee, North Texas, and New Mexico State. TCU and Houston would be in the WAC unless if Houston got the 14th Metro spot, in which case Utah State or Idaho replaces them in the WAC.
Of course, the ACC raid begins in 2004. Over two years, the Metro loses Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College. The Metro adds TCU to settle at 12 members, down from 14. The WAC adds Idaho.
The Metro then has the wheels come off in 2012 as TCU and West Virginia leave for the Big 12 and are replaced by South Florida and Central Florida; the Sun Belt adds independents FAU and FIU. Pittsburgh and Syracuse head to the ACC in 2013 and are replaced by SMU and Houston. Louisville then leaves for the ACC and is replaced by Marshall. Rutgers leaves for the Big Ten and is replaced by Connecticut, who leaves MAC football and the Big East for all other sports. The Sun Belt adds Rice. Charlotte, Western Kentucky, and South Alabama all transition to FBS in the Sun Belt.
With the Metro effectively having taken the place of both the Big East and Conference USA, the WAC comes out in much better shape:
Idaho/UTEP
UTSA/Texas State
Louisiana Tech/Tulsa
The WAC refocuses as a southeastern-based league, adding Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Old Domion, App State, and Coastal Carolina. Idaho eventually moves to FCS.
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