(04-16-2017 04:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  that Bryce Harper guy, he's pretty good....

The home plate dousing was pretty good. Is that a thing now?

(04-16-2017 10:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-16-2017 07:29 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-15-2017 03:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  of course you aren't going to quote FIP here because 2015 it was 2.76 and this year it's only 2.93.

it's fine, I'm happy to use it. However, all his other numbers have gotten worse. The only reason his FIP is showing as really good is because his BABIP is high and it expects regression to the mean. But I will guarantee his BABIP will be nowhere near what it was in 2015 and I'm also willing to bet his HR rate will increase. But I guess we shall see. I would not be surprised to see him end the season with an ERA somewhere around 3.90 - 4.00 and an FIP in the 3.60 range.

my point with Greinke is simple. You can use his supporting numbers all you want. But the innings pitched argument is a pretty weak one- as guys just don't go as long any longer as they used to.

But this is about whether or not you can call Greinke an ace. There are 24 starters who have gone at least 18 innings in their first 3 starts, and 30 who have gone more than Greinke. Not saying he has to go 7, but how many guys you'd consider an ace are giving their teams barely more than 5IP/start? I think one of the things you use to characterize an ace is a guy who can give you innings when the bullpen is worn down. I don't think IP is irrelevant.

(04-16-2017 06:11 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(04-16-2017 10:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-16-2017 07:29 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-15-2017 03:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  of course you aren't going to quote FIP here because 2015 it was 2.76 and this year it's only 2.93.

it's fine, I'm happy to use it. However, all his other numbers have gotten worse. The only reason his FIP is showing as really good is because his BABIP is high and it expects regression to the mean. But I will guarantee his BABIP will be nowhere near what it was in 2015 and I'm also willing to bet his HR rate will increase. But I guess we shall see. I would not be surprised to see him end the season with an ERA somewhere around 3.90 - 4.00 and an FIP in the 3.60 range.

my point with Greinke is simple. You can use his supporting numbers all you want. But the innings pitched argument is a pretty weak one- as guys just don't go as long any longer as they used to.

But this is about whether or not you can call Greinke an ace. There are 24 starters who have gone at least 18 innings in their first 3 starts, and 30 who have gone more than Greinke. Not saying he has to go 7, but how many guys you'd consider an ace are giving their teams barely more than 5IP/start? I think one of the things you use to characterize an ace is a guy who can give you innings when the bullpen is worn down. I don't think IP is irrelevant.

you were complaining about sample size. It's 3 starts so far.

Hoisted by my own petard!

Man, this blister thing with Hill...

well looking to the moment the league ba is still sitting at .241. AL is at .240 now while NL is at .242.

NL now for the year at 3.92 ERA with 3.95 FIP. 1.12 HR/9 8.34 K/9, 3.36 bb/9
AL now for the year 4.01 ERA with 4.00 FIP. 1.14 HR/9 8.20 k/9, 3.36 bb/9

The ERA numbers probably a bit lucky- given AL LOB% is 74.0% and NL LOB% is 73.8%.

so if the Yanks hold on to beat the Cards, the 2 teams with the worst record in all of MLB thru 2 weeks will be Toronto(2-10) and St Louis(3-9). And in the NL thru 2 weeks- the 3 teams with the best records- Colorado(9-5) and Cincy/Arizona(8-5). Don't think anyone would have believed either of those statements 15 days ago.

(04-16-2017 04:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  that Bryce Harper guy, he's pretty good....

Yeah i've heard that. If he stays healthy, he and Machado will sign for the GDP of a small nation

(04-16-2017 08:20 AM)Lush Wrote:  i know i only come on here to talk about the reds, but i follow this thread intimately. it seems you regulars are having a good time. this is mostly where i get my baseball uptodates. so, i'm adopting the fish as a favorite team. along with the reds of course. ozuna and yelich are dynamite. and man, i'm gonna miss seeing jose. such a showman. i imagine he's bullfighting somewhere. anyway, the reds bullpen, oh word

I pay a little more attention to the Reds because they've got a Rice Owl in that *special* bullpen - Tony Cingrani. I know they've struggled to find a place for him. Starter, closer, now setup man? His fastball can be electric but at mid-90s it's just not enough to have only one pitch, a la Chapman. I know he was working on a cutter during the offseason but it doesn't look like he's thrown it yet this year. Nearly 90% fastballs last year and a little more this year. He's in a tough spot - needing to develop a secondary pitch but in the middle of a season where he's fighting to prove his worth.

It's nice to see King Felix having a bit of a bounce back. It's obviously not totally for real, but it appears as if he's making a major adjustment: throwing more strikes. His K rate is nearly identical to last season, and his HR rate has actually gone up. Also, his strand rate is a very-unlikely-to-continue 89.9%. All that said, he hasn't walked a batter in 18 innings. Obviously that one isn't sustainable, but his 53.9% zone rate is the second highest of his career and far higher than it's been in many years. So far, hitters are swinging more often, but actually making less contact in the zone, while making more contact on pitches outside the zone. Throwing more strikes, and getting less contact in the zone, while getting more outside, is certainly a recipe for success. I for one hope it continues

big red flag for Hernandez is his homer rate......
2014 0.61 hr/9
2015 1.03 hr/9
2016 1.12 hr/9
2017 1.47 hr/9

if that continues, he's going to get hurt big time.

(04-18-2017 09:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  big red flag for Hernandez is his homer rate......
2014 0.61 hr/9
2015 1.03 hr/9
2016 1.12 hr/9
2017 1.47 hr/9

if that continues, he's going to get hurt big time.

Yes, that is very much trending in the wrong direction. BUT his 2016 BB/9 was 3.82. Combined with the high HR rate and lack of K's, he was obviously doomed. The consequences of a higher HR rate can be mitigated somewhat by a much better BB rate. You can afford to give up too many HR if you limit walks

And BTW i'm not saying Felix is getting back to his old self. Just that it's possible we could be seeing him make an adjustment and that he could still be a 3 WAR pitcher

so just was looking. 2017 so far still with a .241 league batting average- exactly the same as a week ago.. Got 13 more days of games in April, but to put in context right now- to get to the same batting average as last year in April- the last 13 days the league would have to bat .258. Tough to see that quite frankly.

(04-18-2017 09:17 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  big red flag for Hernandez is his homer rate......
2014 0.61 hr/9
2015 1.03 hr/9
2016 1.12 hr/9
2017 1.47 hr/9

if that continues, he's going to get hurt big time.

Yes, that is very much trending in the wrong direction. BUT his 2016 BB/9 was 3.82. Combined with the high HR rate and lack of K's, he was obviously doomed. The consequences of a higher HR rate can be mitigated somewhat by a much better BB rate. You can afford to give up too many HR if you limit walks

Right. But lets think about it. Which trend more likely to continue? Him not walking anyone- which flies in the face of a 2.5 career bb/9 rate even prior to last year or continuing to give up homers? I think the safe money is that he's going to continue to give up homers. Maybe not to the level he has this year so far- but still quite a few. Tough to see him turning into the Eck or Kershaw and never walking anyone.

Having said that- seems like he could get back to a 3-4 WAR guy depending on the source you're looking at. Key for him health of course.

(04-18-2017 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:17 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  big red flag for Hernandez is his homer rate......
2014 0.61 hr/9
2015 1.03 hr/9
2016 1.12 hr/9
2017 1.47 hr/9

if that continues, he's going to get hurt big time.

Yes, that is very much trending in the wrong direction. BUT his 2016 BB/9 was 3.82. Combined with the high HR rate and lack of K's, he was obviously doomed. The consequences of a higher HR rate can be mitigated somewhat by a much better BB rate. You can afford to give up too many HR if you limit walks

Right. But lets think about it. Which trend more likely to continue? Him not walking anyone- which flies in the face of a 2.5 career bb/9 rate even prior to last year or continuing to give up homers? I think the safe money is that he's going to continue to give up homers. Maybe not to the level he has this year so far- but still quite a few. Tough to see him turning into the Eck or Kershaw and never walking anyone.

Having said that- seems like he could get back to a 3-4 WAR guy depending on the source you're looking at. Key for him health of course.

oh of course not. His BB rate won't be anywhere near 0.00. But he's gone 18 innings without allowing a walk and those innings count. If he can end the season around 2.25 BB/9 and keep the HR rate where it is now, he could end up with a solid season. I'm sure the Mariners would take 195 innings with a 3.50 ERA

(04-18-2017 09:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so just was looking. 2017 so far still with a .241 league batting average- exactly the same as a week ago.. Got 13 more days of games in April, but to put in context right now- to get to the same batting average as last year in April- the last 13 days the league would have to bat .258. Tough to see that quite frankly.

i'm getting a bit lost. Is this the whole league or one of the two?

(04-18-2017 09:44 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so just was looking. 2017 so far still with a .241 league batting average- exactly the same as a week ago.. Got 13 more days of games in April, but to put in context right now- to get to the same batting average as last year in April- the last 13 days the league would have to bat .258. Tough to see that quite frankly.

i'm getting a bit lost. Is this the whole league or one of the two?

entire league right now. the league differential has totally evaporated- it's now .242 in NL, .241 AL. .241 overall.

(04-18-2017 09:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:44 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so just was looking. 2017 so far still with a .241 league batting average- exactly the same as a week ago.. Got 13 more days of games in April, but to put in context right now- to get to the same batting average as last year in April- the last 13 days the league would have to bat .258. Tough to see that quite frankly.

i'm getting a bit lost. Is this the whole league or one of the two?

entire league right now. the league differential has totally evaporated- it's now .242 in NL, .241 AL. .241 overall.

muy interesante

(04-18-2017 09:44 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:17 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  big red flag for Hernandez is his homer rate......
2014 0.61 hr/9
2015 1.03 hr/9
2016 1.12 hr/9
2017 1.47 hr/9

if that continues, he's going to get hurt big time.

Yes, that is very much trending in the wrong direction. BUT his 2016 BB/9 was 3.82. Combined with the high HR rate and lack of K's, he was obviously doomed. The consequences of a higher HR rate can be mitigated somewhat by a much better BB rate. You can afford to give up too many HR if you limit walks

Right. But lets think about it. Which trend more likely to continue? Him not walking anyone- which flies in the face of a 2.5 career bb/9 rate even prior to last year or continuing to give up homers? I think the safe money is that he's going to continue to give up homers. Maybe not to the level he has this year so far- but still quite a few. Tough to see him turning into the Eck or Kershaw and never walking anyone.

Having said that- seems like he could get back to a 3-4 WAR guy depending on the source you're looking at. Key for him health of course.

oh of course not. His BB rate won't be anywhere near 0.00. But he's gone 18 innings without allowing a walk and those innings count. If he can end the season around 2.25 BB/9 and keep the HR rate where it is now, he could end up with a solid season. I'm sure the Mariners would take 195 innings with a 3.50 ERA

If he's got a 2.25 bb/9 rate and his hr rate is where it is now- assuming 200 innings, the rest of the way he'd have 50 walks in the last 182 innings- or 2.47/9. Keeping that with the current HR rate- and pretty much impossible to have a 3.50 ERA(esp given right now he's got a 2.95 ERA with no walks).

he's only had 3 years in his career with less than a 2.5 bb/9 ratio.