ESPN Bubble Watch 2/17/17


Teams that should be in: Cincinnati, SMU
Work left to do: Houston

Cincinnati hangs tight, SMU hangs on, and Houston joins the fun -- but for how long?

Cincinnati [23-3 (12-1), RPI: 15, SOS: 87] Four of Cincinnati's last five regular-season games come against teams with RPIs between 102 and 122 (as of Thursday's RPI update). Such is life in the American, where most of the league isn't terrible and most of the league isn't very good. Cincinnati is very close to lock status as is; as long as it takes care of Tulsa on Saturday (and maybe Memphis next week, though we'll see), the Bearcats will move up.

SMU [23-4 (13-1), RPI: 21, SOS: 109] On Sunday, SMU beat Cincinnati, avenging its only conference loss, notching its first marquee win, and fully announcing its previously ignored presence to a national audience. On Wednesday, at home against a 4-20 Tulane team with a sub-250 RPI, SMU trailed 42-27 at the half. Yeah. Gulp. Then Semi Ojeleye scored 16 of his 18 points in the second half, and SMU crawled away from what would have been an unmitigated disaster. Meanwhile, did you know that Mike Dunleavy Sr. -- the longtime NBA coach last seen during his seven seasons with the Los Angeles Clippers -- is in his first year at Tulane? True story! And so it was that "Thunder Dan" Majerle and Grand Canyon University were unseated from the "Most Random Combination of Div. I School and Former NBA Personality" throne. The king is dead; long live the king.

Houston [18-7 (9-4), RPI: 59, SOS: 116] A warm Bubble Watch welcome to the Cougars, who have been on our wait-and-see radar for a minute. Houston's resume lacks top-end wins -- its best is either a neutral-court victory over Vermont or a home win against Rhode Island -- and is weighed down by four sub-100 losses. If the bracket was seeded today, Houston wouldn't have much of a chance of getting in. The Cougars are worth noting for two reasons: After five wins in a row, they boast the American's second-best per-trip offense behind SMU and slightly ahead of Cincinnati. What's more, SMU visits Saturday, and a win would at least keep Houston in the Georgetown/Texas Tech/Providence/Utah faction of bubble long shots that can get in with a big push over the next two weeks.


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

(02-17-2017 11:36 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 10:39 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 08:04 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  

(02-16-2017 09:56 PM)payday Wrote:  

(02-16-2017 08:57 PM)The Big O Wrote:  Wisconsin finally loses a close game, 64-58.

So does Wisconsin drop to #18 like UC did?

No, they will drop one or two if they win this weekend, they are P5. Their national perception stands heads above UC's, like it or not it's true.

They lost to Northwestern and Michigan back to back and haven't looked good in awhile...they'll drop.

Interesting season for B10 basketball. There is certainly enough talent for one of the conference leaders to work its way to the Final Four. But certainly no sure fire dominant team and the alternate scenario of conference leaders such as Purdue or Wisconsin not making the Elite Eight seems equally plausible.

Yeah, to say it has been a down year overall in the Big Ten is an understatement. I think the problem is just that there are a ton of worn out tires coaching these teams, and enthusiasm in waning in a big way.

Checking out the RPI numbers this afternoon. There's an AAC logjam in the high 90s and low 100s - Temple, Memphis, UCF, UConn, and Tulsa are all between 92 and 118. Since wins vs. Top 100 is one metric used by the selection committee, it would be nice if Temple can hang on and at least one other sneak in. As of now, we have 7 wins vs. Top 100. A win over Houston would make 8. If one other team goes on a run (preferably someone we beat twice), we could get up to 12 RPI 100 wins by the end of the conference tourney. That would certainly set us up for a Top 4 seed.

(02-17-2017 02:13 PM)geef Wrote:  Checking out the RPI numbers this afternoon. There's an AAC logjam in the high 90s and low 100s - Temple, Memphis, UCF, UConn, and Tulsa are all between 92 and 118. Since wins vs. Top 100 is one metric used by the selection committee, it would be nice if Temple can hang on and at least one other sneak in. As of now, we have 7 wins vs. Top 100. A win over Houston would make 8. If one other team goes on a run (preferably someone we beat twice), we could get up to 12 RPI 100 wins by the end of the conference tourney. That would certainly set us up for a Top 4 seed.

There is that word again. Logjam.

(02-17-2017 02:13 PM)geef Wrote:  As of now, we have 7 wins vs. Top 100. A win over Houston would make 8. If one other team goes on a run (preferably someone we beat twice), we could get up to 12 RPI 100 wins by the end of the conference tourney. That would certainly set us up for a Top 4 seed.

This is why UConn's win over Memphis last night was to UC's advantage.

(02-17-2017 02:36 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 02:13 PM)geef Wrote:  Checking out the RPI numbers this afternoon. There's an AAC logjam in the high 90s and low 100s - Temple, Memphis, UCF, UConn, and Tulsa are all between 92 and 118. Since wins vs. Top 100 is one metric used by the selection committee, it would be nice if Temple can hang on and at least one other sneak in. As of now, we have 7 wins vs. Top 100. A win over Houston would make 8. If one other team goes on a run (preferably someone we beat twice), we could get up to 12 RPI 100 wins by the end of the conference tourney. That would certainly set us up for a Top 4 seed.

There is that word again. Logjam.

I'm sure it would be amazingly funny if I had any context whatsoever.

(02-17-2017 05:54 PM)geef Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 02:36 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 02:13 PM)geef Wrote:  Checking out the RPI numbers this afternoon. There's an AAC logjam in the high 90s and low 100s - Temple, Memphis, UCF, UConn, and Tulsa are all between 92 and 118. Since wins vs. Top 100 is one metric used by the selection committee, it would be nice if Temple can hang on and at least one other sneak in. As of now, we have 7 wins vs. Top 100. A win over Houston would make 8. If one other team goes on a run (preferably someone we beat twice), we could get up to 12 RPI 100 wins by the end of the conference tourney. That would certainly set us up for a Top 4 seed.

There is that word again. Logjam.

I'm sure it would be amazingly funny if I had any context whatsoever.

Really, Lebowski?

(02-17-2017 06:02 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 05:54 PM)geef Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 02:36 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(02-17-2017 02:13 PM)geef Wrote:  Checking out the RPI numbers this afternoon. There's an AAC logjam in the high 90s and low 100s - Temple, Memphis, UCF, UConn, and Tulsa are all between 92 and 118. Since wins vs. Top 100 is one metric used by the selection committee, it would be nice if Temple can hang on and at least one other sneak in. As of now, we have 7 wins vs. Top 100. A win over Houston would make 8. If one other team goes on a run (preferably someone we beat twice), we could get up to 12 RPI 100 wins by the end of the conference tourney. That would certainly set us up for a Top 4 seed.

There is that word again. Logjam.

I'm sure it would be amazingly funny if I had any context whatsoever.

Really, Lebowski?

Crap. Way off my game.

I'm changing my screen name to Karl Hungus.

Houston up 10 early. Big game for uc's outright conference championship hopes and for AAC's slim hopes of getting an at large team outside of uc and smu.

Houston is giving SMU a game. Up 8 with 3 to go 1st half.

(02-18-2017 06:23 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Houston up 10 early. Big game for uc's outright conference championship hopes and for AAC's slim hopes of getting an at large team outside of uc and smu.

Agree on Houston's shot at a bid. Also a chance for the Cats to move up a tad in the polls. #17 FSU lost at Pitt 80-66 and #14 Virginia seeks to avoid their third loss in a row at #10 North Carolina. Good luck on that one.

The only Top 100 RPI team UC has played since X is SMU. 7 games....

Terrible turnover vs a weak press UH.

UH is collapsing

Wow, that 3 was deep by SMU. Good tight game.

Like always, UC isn't going to receive any help.

Officials at UH are horrible

(02-18-2017 08:02 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Officials at UH are horrible

Speaking for horrible officiating, there was apparently a BOGO offer on travelling violations today at the Tulsa game.

(02-19-2017 12:28 AM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  

(02-18-2017 08:02 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Officials at UH are horrible

Speaking for horrible officiating, there was apparently a BOGO offer on travelling violations today at the Tulsa game.

They are overcalling that so much. A quick first step gets called for a travel now. Jennifer did not travel on that one in the first half. Mick was right to be upset.