Here's where CUSA MBB stands going into the week of Feb 13th:

Conference USA Standings

TEAM CONFOVERALL

1) Middle Tennessee 12-1 22-4
2) Louisiana Tech 10-3 18-8
3) Old Dominion 8-5 15-10
3) UAB 8-5 15-11
5) Rice 7-5 17-8
5) Marshall 7-5 14-11
5) UTEP 7-5 9-15
8) Western Kentucky 6-6 12-13
8) UT San Antonio 6-6 11-14
10) Charlotte 5-8 11-13
11) Florida Atlantic 4-8 8-15
12) Southern Miss 4-9 7-18
13) Florida Intl 2-10 6-19
14) North Texas 1-11 7-17

If I look at the logjam of teams tied for 3rd and 5th place, I believe UTEP (@UNT, @Rice, @FAU, @FIU, ODU & Charlotte) has the easiest remaining schedule.

I believe Marshall (UAB, MTSU, @ODU, @Charlotte, Rice and UNT) and ODU (Charlotte, Marshall, WKU, @UTEP & @UTSA) may have the most difficult schedules remaining.

We are really 5-18. Non-D1 wins shouldn't count.

At 7-5, Rice is:
7-0 against the bottom 5 in the standings,
0-5 vs the top 4, and
0-0 vs the middle 5.

4 of our last 6 are against the middle group, and 4 of 6 are at home.
We're "favored" in 5/6 and would probably need five wins to get into the top 4 (since we own no tiebreakers at all).

UTSA, UTEP, USM, LATech,
@Mar,@WKy

Are all the postseason tournaments still around? Is the Las Vegas one going to have 16 teams or 8 teams again this year?

I'd have to believe that we're looking at 1 or possibly 2 NCAA teams (if MTSU doesn't get the automatic bid but does get an at-large bid), and perhaps 6 postseason teams total? It seems like MTSU, La. Tech, ODU, UAB, Rice and Marshall would be the logical 6 unless someone else wins the NCAA bid outright? Western Kentucky might squeeze into that group too but they need to finish strong and they do have a pretty tough remaining schedule.

Losing to UTEP killed any chance Middle Tennessee had at an at large NCAA bid. UTEP has been good lately but those were hone games. The UTEP-Rice game is really big for both teams. Matt willms is a match up problem for most teams. Teams have to double him or he will kill them. When he gets doubled he is finding open shooters and for now they are knocking down shots.

Sent from my LG-K550 using CSNbbs mobile app

MTSU at large chances aren't officially dead. I think the two early home losses will affect them more than a conference road loss.

(02-13-2017 08:12 AM)stanman505 Wrote:  Losing to UTEP killed any chance Middle Tennessee had at an at large NCAA bid.

I'm not sure. It really depends on how many other conference favorites get knocked off in their tournaments (ie., if someone in the CAA knocks off UNCW in the tournament, that's one less at large bid). I think MTSU could possibly withstand one more conference loss as long as it isn't to one of the bottom feeders.

I think MTSU will be on the upside of the bubble when ODU beats then in the tournament.

(The one thing that MTSU doesn't have is that earth-shattering victory that gets the committees attention.)

(02-13-2017 07:41 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Are all the postseason tournaments still around? Is the Las Vegas one going to have 16 teams or 8 teams again this year?

I'd have to believe that we're looking at 1 or possibly 2 NCAA teams (if MTSU doesn't get the automatic bid but does get an at-large bid), and perhaps 6 postseason teams total? It seems like MTSU, La. Tech, ODU, UAB, Rice and Marshall would be the logical 6 unless someone else wins the NCAA bid outright? Western Kentucky might squeeze into that group too but they need to finish strong and they do have a pretty tough remaining schedule.

We will never play in a post season tournament not named NCAA Or NIT...

glad north texas doesn't have to spend the cash on going to the conference tourney this year...

Was looking at NIT Bracketology today, and they don't even have a CUSA team in there. Would suck for the top tier of teams to not even get one NIT bid. But we still have a few weeks to go.

I hope and pray we don't go to another buy-in tournament. Please, no more

Using Ken Pom numbers and national averages, I simulated the remainder of the season:

2/16:

UAB 83 Marshall 89
FAU 62 LT 77
FIU 64 USM 62
UTEP 66 North Texas 65
UTSA 65 Rice 78
MTSU 69 WKY 60

2/18

UTSA 63 North Texas 68
FAU 64 USM 61
MTSU 81 Marshall 76
Charlotte 62 ODU 71
FIU 62 LT 77
UTEP 66 Rice 77
UAB 70 Western 70

Game 3:

WKY 75 Charlotte 79
UTEP 63 FAU 65
UTSA 62 FIU 66
LT 76 North Texas 66
Marshall 70 ODU 76
Southern Miss 61 Rice 80

2/25:

USM 59 North Texas 67
Marshall 94 Charlotte 94
UTSA 62 FAU 66
UTEP 66 FIU 65
Western 55 ODU 65
LT 76 Rice 77
Middle 68 UAB 63

3/2:
Rice 91 Marshall 94
FIU 55 Middle 74
Charlotte 72 UTSA 72
FAU 65 UAB 74
North Texas 66 WKY 75
ODU 57 UTEP 55

3/4:
USM 55 LT 75
Charlotte 70 UTEP 74
ODU 58 UTSA 54
FAU 56 Middle 73
North Texas 78 Marshall 94
FIU 64 UAB 75
Rice 77 WKY 75


Based on those scores:

Middle 17-1, 27-4
LT 14-4, 22-9
ODU 13-5, 20-10
Rice 12-6, 22-9
Marshall 11-7, 18-13
UAB 10-8, 17-14
UTEP 9-9, 11-19
WKY 8-10, 14-17
Charlotte 7-11, 13-16
FAU 7-11, 11-18
UTSA 6-12, 11-20
FIU 5-13, 9-22
North Texas 3-15, 9-21
USM 4-14, 7-23

Obv, percentages are important to look at; for example, ODU is slight favorite in every game but, what are odds of winning 5 close games? So, applying a percentage chance of winning each game:

Middle 4.1-0.9
LT 4.1-0.9
ODU 3.8-1.2
Rice 4.3-1.7
Marshall 3.3-2.7
UAB 2.8-2.2
Charlotte 2.8-2.2
UTEP 2.5-3.5
WKY 2.4-3.6
FAU 2.2-3.8
UTSA 1.9-4.1
FIU 2.0-4.0
North Texas 2.3-3.7
USM 1.1-3.9


I will predict standings of:

Middle 16-2
LT 14-4
ODU 12-6
Rice 11-7
UAB 11-7
Marshall 10-8
UTEP 10-8
Charlotte 8-10
WKY 8-10
UTSA 8-10
FAU 6-12
USM 5-13
FIU 4-14
North Texas 3-15

*May be off slightly due to rounding up or down.

(02-13-2017 02:06 AM)HogDawg Wrote:  If I look at the logjam of teams tied for 3rd and 5th place, I believe UTEP (@UNT, @Rice, @FAU, @FIU, ODU & Charlotte) has the easiest remaining schedule.

I believe Marshall (UAB, MTSU, @ODU, @Charlotte, Rice and UNT) and ODU (Charlotte, Marshall, WKU, @UTEP & @UTSA) may have the most difficult schedules remaining.

My numbers take into account the level at which the team is (using Ken Pom). But, I think Rice has the easiest road.

I'd rank by difficult of schedule/expected remaining wins:

Rice
ODU
Marshall
UAB
UTEP
Western
Charlotte
UTSA

Does UNT have the worst athletic programs in CUSA?

(02-13-2017 12:09 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Using Ken Pom numbers and national averages, I simulated the remainder of the season:

2/16:

UAB 73 Marshall 78
FAU 61 LT 76
FIU 69 USM 67
UTEP 67 North Texas 66
UTSA 61 Rice 76
MTSU 75 WKY 66

2/18

UTSA 63 North Texas 65
FAU 65 USM 62
MTSU 76 Marshall 71
Charlotte 64 ODU 74
FIU 64 LT 81
UTEP 64 Rice 75
UAB 72 Western 73

Game 3:

WKY 71 Charlotte 76
UTEP 64 FAU 67
UTSA 65 FIU 69
LT 74 North Texas 64
Marshall 68 ODU 74
Southern Miss 78 Rice 59

2/25:

USM 61 North Texas 69
Marshall 77 Charlotte 76
UTSA 61 FAU 66
UTEP 69 FIU 70
Western 63 ODU 73
LT 71 Rice 73
Middle 73 UAB 67

3/2:
Rice 75 Marshall 78
FIU 61 Middle 82
Charlotte 67 UTSA 66
FAU 65 UAB 74
North Texas 66 WKY 75
ODU 65 UTEP 63

3/4:
USM 58 LT 77
Charlotte 68 UTEP 71
ODU 65 UTSA 60
FAU 58 Middle 77
North Texas 67 Marshall 81
FIU 68 UAB 79
Rice 75 WKY 72


Based on those scores:

Middle 17-1, 27-4
LT 14-4, 22-9
ODU 13-5, 20-10
Rice 12-6, 22-9
Marshall 11-7, 18-13
UAB 10-8, 17-14
UTEP 9-9, 11-19
WKY 8-10, 14-17
Charlotte 7-11, 13-16
FAU 7-11, 11-18
UTSA 6-12, 11-20
FIU 5-13, 9-22
North Texas 3-15, 9-21
USM 4-14, 7-23

Obv, percentages are important to look at; for example, ODU is slight favorite in every game but, what are odds of winning 5 close games? So, applying a percentage chance of winning each game:

Middle 4.1-0.9
LT 4.1-0.9
ODU 3.8-1.2
Rice 4.3-1.7
Marshall 3.3-2.7
UAB 2.8-2.2
Charlotte 2.8-2.2
UTEP 2.5-3.5
WKY 2.4-3.6
FAU 2.2-3.8
UTSA 1.9-4.1
FIU 2.0-4.0
North Texas 2.3-3.7
USM 1.1-3.9


I will predict standings of:

Middle 16-2
LT 14-4
ODU 12-6
Rice 11-7
UAB 11-7
Marshall 10-8
UTEP 10-8
Charlotte 8-10
WKY 8-10
UTSA 8-10
FAU 6-12
USM 5-13
FIU 4-14
North Texas 3-15

*May be off slightly due to rounding up or down.

Based off your predicted standings.
MTSU would play the winner of WKU vs Charlotte.
LT the winner of Marshall vs UTSA.
ODU the winner of UTEP vs FAU.
UAB the winner of RICE vs USM.

If that end up happening, I think facing the winner of UTEP/FAU is a "better' matchup than facing Marshall or Rice.

(02-13-2017 12:34 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  If that end up happening, I think facing the winner of UTEP/FAU is a "better' matchup than facing Marshall or Rice.

I agree it would be difficult for UTEP to beat you back to back in consecutive weeks. The same could also apply if you beat us in El Paso and then have to turn around and play us six days later.

I'd rather not play Western in the tourney.

You can throw the records out....... for both teams (in any year)

(02-13-2017 12:49 PM)JCMiner Wrote:  

(02-13-2017 12:34 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  If that end up happening, I think facing the winner of UTEP/FAU is a "better' matchup than facing Marshall or Rice.

I agree it would be difficult for UTEP to beat you back to back in consecutive weeks. The same could also apply if you beat us in El Paso and then have to turn around and play us six days later.

I don't mean ODU specifically, but you are probably right about the difficulty of winning twice.

By Ken Pom numbers, Rice is 121, Marshall 154, UAB 174, Charlotte 226, UTEP 238. In theory, LT is at a disadvantage having to play Marshall vs. UTEP.