(11-07-2016 04:10 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  538 is the only one with NC lean Clinton that I see

And Trump could be up 6-7 there.

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(11-07-2016 11:40 AM)muffinman Wrote:  If I remember correctly, the IBD poll has been the one that has been the closest to being correct the last 3 or 4 elections.

So I would rely on that one a little more heavily.

However, all that it may prove is that Trump may win the popular vote, but still loose the election.

Well, someone tell him to grab a screwdriver and tighten that "scum-bum" up!!

(11-07-2016 04:06 PM)Max Power Wrote:  We'll see I guess. My prediction on here was 100% accurate in 2012. I like to think that wasn't pure luck.

more like post-election prediction. you're not fooling anyone with that "prediction is 100% accurate" bullcrap.

The polls today in the swing states look really good.

FL- Trump +4
OH - Trump +7
PA - Trump +1
NV - Trump +1
MI - Trump +2

I kind of hope Hillary takes FL or NC and the media calls it, then Trump responds with PA, OH, MI, and CO and see the ensuing media meltdown.

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Current RCP Averages

AZ - Trump +4
CO - Clinton +2
FL - Trump +.2
IA - Trump +3
ME - Clinton +4.5 (Trump will get that 1 vote for sure)
MI - Clinton +3
NV - Trump +.8
NH - Trump +2 (I removed the junk poll that shows Clinton +11)
NC - Trump +1
OH - Trump +4
PA - Clinton +1.9
VA - Clinton +5
WI - CLinton +6.5

If those averages hold (most are sliding further to Trump) then Trump will win with 270 on the nose. If a couple of blue states slide a smidge more, Trump will get over 300.

(11-07-2016 10:19 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Current RCP Averages

AZ - Trump +4
CO - Clinton +2
FL - Trump +.2
IA - Trump +3
ME - Clinton +4.5 (Trump will get that 1 vote for sure)
MI - Clinton +3
NV - Trump +.8
NH - Trump +2 (I removed the junk poll that shows Clinton +11)
NC - Trump +1
OH - Trump +4
PA - Clinton +1.9
VA - Clinton +5
WI - CLinton +6.5

If those averages hold (most are sliding further to Trump) then Trump will win with 270 on the nose. If a couple of blue states slide a smidge more, Trump will get over 300.

There is also some crazy elector from the state of WA who says he will not caste his vote for HRC. It won't go for Trump but it's one to likely take off of her vote total in your calculations.

(11-07-2016 10:22 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 10:19 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Current RCP Averages

AZ - Trump +4
CO - Clinton +2
FL - Trump +.2
IA - Trump +3
ME - Clinton +4.5 (Trump will get that 1 vote for sure)
MI - Clinton +3
NV - Trump +.8
NH - Trump +2 (I removed the junk poll that shows Clinton +11)
NC - Trump +1
OH - Trump +4
PA - Clinton +1.9
VA - Clinton +5
WI - CLinton +6.5

If those averages hold (most are sliding further to Trump) then Trump will win with 270 on the nose. If a couple of blue states slide a smidge more, Trump will get over 300.

There is also some crazy elector from the state of WA who says he will not caste his vote for HRC. It won't go for Trump but it's one to likely take off of her vote total in your calculations.

If Hillary gets exactly 269 or 270, that guy will be in a shallow grave.

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(11-07-2016 10:22 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 10:19 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Current RCP Averages

AZ - Trump +4
CO - Clinton +2
FL - Trump +.2
IA - Trump +3
ME - Clinton +4.5 (Trump will get that 1 vote for sure)
MI - Clinton +3
NV - Trump +.8
NH - Trump +2 (I removed the junk poll that shows Clinton +11)
NC - Trump +1
OH - Trump +4
PA - Clinton +1.9
VA - Clinton +5
WI - CLinton +6.5

If those averages hold (most are sliding further to Trump) then Trump will win with 270 on the nose. If a couple of blue states slide a smidge more, Trump will get over 300.

There is also some crazy elector from the state of WA who says he will not caste his vote for HRC. It won't go for Trump but it's one to likely take off of her vote total in your calculations.

At this point I dont see that coming into play, because that would require her to get 270 on the nose, and his subtracted vote pulls her under to where it would go to the house.

If there are more than one out there, that could be a problem for her, especially if she sits around 274, which could easily happen.

More bad news for Clinton in CO.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/c...index.html

Republicans take the lead in early voting. The article points out that republicans did have a higher lead in 2012, but that it wasnt enough due to the late voting by young voters. What they failed to mention is that Hillary is having a sh*t of a time getting young voters motivated to vote.

And its a state she kissed off back in July. And Bernie won the state in the primaries by a landslide.

But Muh Nate (I don't know why but I find that so funny) has gone final

Clinton 71.6%
Trump 28.4%

Giving Clinton NV, NC, NH, FL
Giving Trump IA and OH

Breitbart/Gravis moves from H+2 to H+4, Google goes from H+3 to H+2, Insights West released a poll showing H+4, Reuters/Ipsos went from H+4 to H+3, LAT/USC went from T+5 to T+3, IBD/TIPP remains T+2.

Insights West: Hillary +4
CCES/YouGov: Hillary +4
Angus Reid Global: Hillary +4
Monmouth: Hillary +6
Bloomberg/Selzer: Hillary +3
New Orleans Times-Picayune: Hillary +5
Fox News: Hillary +4
IBD/TIPP: Trump +2
CBS/NYT: Hillary +4
Rasmussen: Hillary +2
LAT/USC: Trump +3
UPI/CVOTER: Hillary +3
NBC/SurveyMonkey: Hillary +6
Politico/Morning Consult: Hillary +3
NBC/WSJ: Hillary +4
ABC/WaPo: Hillary +4
Boston Herald/RKM: Hillary +3
Reuters/Ipsos: Hillary +3
McClatchy/Marist: Hillary +1
Breitbart/Gravis: Hillary +4
YouGov: Hillary +4
RAND: Hillary +9
Google Consumer Surveys: Hillary +2

(11-07-2016 10:19 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Current RCP Averages

AZ - Trump +4
CO - Clinton +2
FL - Trump +.2
IA - Trump +3
ME - Clinton +4.5 (Trump will get that 1 vote for sure)
MI - Clinton +3
NV - Trump +.8
NH - Trump +2 (I removed the junk poll that shows Clinton +11)
NC - Trump +1
OH - Trump +4
PA - Clinton +1.9
VA - Clinton +5
WI - CLinton +6.5

If those averages hold (most are sliding further to Trump) then Trump will win with 270 on the nose. If a couple of blue states slide a smidge more, Trump will get over 300.

The inside the beltway crowd, both Republican and Democratic, are talking like Hillary will win. Given their track record this season, they have about as much credibility as that poll showing Clinton up 11 in New Hampshire.

If that Clinton fund-raising e-mail was real, they consider Trump the favorite to win Florida and North Carolina. They are nervous about Pennsylvania and Michigan. If one of those or Nevada + New Hampshire go Trump's way, he wins.

Nevada's off the table and the "junk poll" is from the U of New Hampshire, which has a B+ rating from 538.

Edit: Actually, SurveyMonkey also has her +11, so I'm not sure which one you mean. But I assume you'd just as soon toss them both out because reasons.

Edit x2: Lol Google Consumer Surveys has her +15.

(11-08-2016 10:53 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Nevada's off the table and the "junk poll" is from the U of New Hampshire, which has a B+ rating from 538.

Edit: Actually, SurveyMonkey also has her +11, so I'm not sure which one you mean. But I assume you'd just as soon toss them both out because reasons.

Edit x2: Lol Google Consumer Surveys has her +15.

Well when 6 polls show it from Clinton +1 to Trump +3, a Clinton +11 clearly has a bad sample. But you will believe it because you simply want to believe. Its WMUR/UNH. TV station polls tend to be notorious outliers.

(11-08-2016 10:53 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Nevada's off the table and the "junk poll" is from the U of New Hampshire, which has a B+ rating from 538.

Edit: Actually, SurveyMonkey also has her +11, so I'm not sure which one you mean. But I assume you'd just as soon toss them both out because reasons.

Edit x2: Lol Google Consumer Surveys has her +15.

LOL 92 respondents with over a 10 % margin of error.

I believe that the popular vote may be pretty close. Maybe within 2M votes of each other, but probably closer than that.

I do think that Clinton will win. Probably with 270-280 electoral votes. I dont think she gets over 300, but who knows.

Yeah Google Consumer Surveys is garbage, at least at the state level. They have Kansas going blue.

(11-08-2016 11:07 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2016 10:53 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Nevada's off the table and the "junk poll" is from the U of New Hampshire, which has a B+ rating from 538.

Edit: Actually, SurveyMonkey also has her +11, so I'm not sure which one you mean. But I assume you'd just as soon toss them both out because reasons.

Edit x2: Lol Google Consumer Surveys has her +15.

Well when 6 polls show it from Clinton +1 to Trump +3, a Clinton +11 clearly has a bad sample. But you will believe it because you simply want to believe. Its WMUR/UNH. TV station polls tend to be notorious outliers.

Just wrong. You're entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...hampshire/

ALL NH polls released in the last 48 hours:

SurveyMonkey: Hillary +9
U of NH: Hillary +11
Pulse Opinion Research: Hillary +6
Emerson: Hillary +2
Reuters: Hillary +3
CCES / YouGov: Hillary +9
Google Consumer Surveys: Hillary +15 but yeah we can throw that out

And sponsorship by a TV station has what effect exactly? Just because they're sponsored by a TV station means nothing. It's a poll conducted by the U of NH.

Posting polls on election day is stupid...the results will be in like 10 hours.