The polling average shows a slight Hillary lead but Dems are crushing in EV and NV is one of the most difficult states to poll, so it's best to look to the campaigns and see what they're doing with their high quality internal polling, and you're actually seeing resources shift from NV to AZ.

Al Giordano @AlGiordano
BREAKING: California Democratic coordinated campaign just shifted its volunteer caravans from Nevada to Arizona. BOOM!
10:11 PM - 25 Oct 2016
795 795 Retweets 1,354 1,354 likes

(10-27-2016 03:07 PM)Max Power Wrote:  The polling average shows a slight Hillary lead but Dems are crushing in EV and NV is one of the most difficult states to poll, so it's best to look to the campaigns and see what they're doing with their high quality internal polling, and you're actually seeing resources shift from NV to AZ.

Al Giordano @AlGiordano
BREAKING: California Democratic coordinated campaign just shifted its volunteer caravans from Nevada to Arizona. BOOM!
10:11 PM - 25 Oct 2016
795 795 Retweets 1,354 1,354 likes

I'm not sure what a volunteer caravan is, other than the group responsible for shuffling a bunch of people to Hillary's rally's to make the crowd get into the dozens.

If the dems are moving resources out of NV, that would be very bad news on two fronts for them. It would either mean that they believe that senate seat is lost or that the state is lost for Hillary OR that Arizona has become the fallback firewall.

(10-27-2016 01:41 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Delusional.

So now that you've told the board about yourself, do you have anything constructive to add?

(10-27-2016 02:59 PM)MonarchManiac Wrote:  Who cares? We're screwed either way.

You obviously do.

I think the polls are off in favor of Clinton slightly. I don't think its going to be enough to make a real difference in the outcome.

Lol it means NV's in the bag and we're greedy and want AZ too. Of the 7 polls since Oct 14, Trump has only led in 2, and both of those by a single point. See:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...t/arizona/

Volunteers canvass, knock on doors, recruit other volunteers, identify likely voters and arrange for transportation to polling places. For the CA volunteers to leave NV for AZ tells you AZ is closer. DNC smells blood in the water, er desert.

(10-27-2016 06:51 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 02:59 PM)MonarchManiac Wrote:  Who cares? We're screwed either way.

You obviously do.

As djt would say... "wrong."

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

(10-27-2016 08:58 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Lol it means NV's in the bag and we're greedy and want AZ too. Of the 7 polls since Oct 14, Trump has only led in 2, and both of those by a single point. See:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...t/arizona/

Volunteers canvass, knock on doors, recruit other volunteers, identify likely voters and arrange for transportation to polling places. For the CA volunteers to leave NV for AZ tells you AZ is closer. DNC smells blood in the water, er desert.

Thats not being greedy. Thats being stupid.

If republicans flip Nevada in the senate race, there is almost no way for democrats to take control of the senate. The latest NBC poll out of NV has the republican up 7 points over the democrat. And the latest NBC poll shows a tie for Trump, and that Trump is shooting way up over the past week, and Hillary is dropping like a rock.

So, reality doesnt match your little fantasy land where you think you have NV in the bag and you are going for AZ as well. Reality says NV will certainly see a senate flip, and the trend shows the state is going for Trump.

Look at the map below. That is the map the Clinton camp is looking at. Trump is assured a tie or a victory if ANY other state or partial state goes to him.

(10-27-2016 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 08:58 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Lol it means NV's in the bag and we're greedy and want AZ too. Of the 7 polls since Oct 14, Trump has only led in 2, and both of those by a single point. See:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...t/arizona/

Volunteers canvass, knock on doors, recruit other volunteers, identify likely voters and arrange for transportation to polling places. For the CA volunteers to leave NV for AZ tells you AZ is closer. DNC smells blood in the water, er desert.

Thats not being greedy. Thats being stupid.

If republicans flip Nevada in the senate race, there is almost no way for democrats to take control of the senate. The latest NBS poll out of NV has the republican up 7 points over the democrat. And the latest NBC poll shows a tie for Trump, and that Trump is shooting way up over the past week, and Hillary is dropping like a rock.

So, reality doesnt match your little fantasy land where you think you have NV in the bag and you are going for AZ as well. Reality says NV will certainly see a senate flip, and the trend shows the state is going for Trump.

Leftists are in a full-on psyop to attempt to demoralize Trump supporters and suppress the vote. It's one of the only cards they have left.

Heck Max admitted 6 weeks ago that was exactly what he was doing.

If you think Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are toss-ups, then you're setting yourself up for a sad night come November

(10-27-2016 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 08:58 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Lol it means NV's in the bag and we're greedy and want AZ too. Of the 7 polls since Oct 14, Trump has only led in 2, and both of those by a single point. See:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...t/arizona/

Volunteers canvass, knock on doors, recruit other volunteers, identify likely voters and arrange for transportation to polling places. For the CA volunteers to leave NV for AZ tells you AZ is closer. DNC smells blood in the water, er desert.

Thats not being greedy. Thats being stupid.

If republicans flip Nevada in the senate race, there is almost no way for democrats to take control of the senate. The latest NBC poll out of NV has the republican up 7 points over the democrat. And the latest NBC poll shows a tie for Trump, and that Trump is shooting way up over the past week, and Hillary is dropping like a rock.

So, reality doesnt match your little fantasy land where you think you have NV in the bag and you are going for AZ as well. Reality says NV will certainly see a senate flip, and the trend shows the state is going for Trump.

Look at the map below. That is the map the Clinton camp is looking at. Trump is assured a tie or a victory if ANY other state or partial state goes to him.

Hahahahaha. More cherrypicking. Even reputable polls will come up with a result way off 1 of 20 times due to random sampling error.

Fact is, Cortez Masto (the Dem in the NV senate race) has led in 4 of the 5 polls released in the past week. You cherrypick the one she doesn't and proclaim that's absolutely, doubtless where the race stands. More dishonesty from your side.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...te/nevada/

We'll see what happens, but the best polling is being done internally and if you want to know where the closest races are you need to track deployment of resources, like for instance CA volunteers.

(10-27-2016 10:57 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Heck Max admitted 6 weeks ago that was exactly what he was doing.

LOL where did I say that exactly? It's math that's demoralizing you, or at least should be. Don't blame me for reality's liberal bias. The delusion on here in the face of the asskicking Trump's getting in polls, betting markets, early voting results and forecasts is hilarious. You've got Trump losing in recent AZ polls but instead people on here are talking about MN going red! Minne-*******-sota! You know, the state that went for Mondale! You can either accept reality now and remember the lessons of 2012 or wait for reality to give you a nice big cockslap on November 8th.

Hillary's big lead in the polls cuts both ways though. It can lead to complacency on our side which can be just as bad. The net effect isn't much.

(10-28-2016 10:28 AM)Max Power Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 08:58 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Lol it means NV's in the bag and we're greedy and want AZ too. Of the 7 polls since Oct 14, Trump has only led in 2, and both of those by a single point. See:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...t/arizona/

Volunteers canvass, knock on doors, recruit other volunteers, identify likely voters and arrange for transportation to polling places. For the CA volunteers to leave NV for AZ tells you AZ is closer. DNC smells blood in the water, er desert.

Thats not being greedy. Thats being stupid.

If republicans flip Nevada in the senate race, there is almost no way for democrats to take control of the senate. The latest NBC poll out of NV has the republican up 7 points over the democrat. And the latest NBC poll shows a tie for Trump, and that Trump is shooting way up over the past week, and Hillary is dropping like a rock.

So, reality doesnt match your little fantasy land where you think you have NV in the bag and you are going for AZ as well. Reality says NV will certainly see a senate flip, and the trend shows the state is going for Trump.

Look at the map below. That is the map the Clinton camp is looking at. Trump is assured a tie or a victory if ANY other state or partial state goes to him.

Hahahahaha. More cherrypicking. Even reputable polls will come up with a result way off 1 of 20 times due to random sampling error.

Fact is, Cortez Masto (the Dem in the NV senate race) has led in 4 of the 5 polls released in the past week. You cherrypick the one she doesn't and proclaim that's absolutely, doubtless where the race stands. More dishonesty from your side.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...te/nevada/

We'll see what happens, but the best polling is being done internally and if you want to know where the closest races are you need to track deployment of resources, like for instance CA volunteers.

Uh, you do realize that the average of your cherrypicked last 5 polls has Heck up +2?

(10-28-2016 10:28 AM)Max Power Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 08:58 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Lol it means NV's in the bag and we're greedy and want AZ too. Of the 7 polls since Oct 14, Trump has only led in 2, and both of those by a single point. See:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...t/arizona/

Volunteers canvass, knock on doors, recruit other volunteers, identify likely voters and arrange for transportation to polling places. For the CA volunteers to leave NV for AZ tells you AZ is closer. DNC smells blood in the water, er desert.

Thats not being greedy. Thats being stupid.

If republicans flip Nevada in the senate race, there is almost no way for democrats to take control of the senate. The latest NBC poll out of NV has the republican up 7 points over the democrat. And the latest NBC poll shows a tie for Trump, and that Trump is shooting way up over the past week, and Hillary is dropping like a rock.

So, reality doesnt match your little fantasy land where you think you have NV in the bag and you are going for AZ as well. Reality says NV will certainly see a senate flip, and the trend shows the state is going for Trump.

Look at the map below. That is the map the Clinton camp is looking at. Trump is assured a tie or a victory if ANY other state or partial state goes to him.

Hahahahaha. More cherrypicking. Even reputable polls will come up with a result way off 1 of 20 times due to random sampling error.

Fact is, Cortez Masto (the Dem in the NV senate race) has led in 4 of the 5 polls released in the past week. You cherrypick the one she doesn't and proclaim that's absolutely, doubtless where the race stands. More dishonesty from your side.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...te/nevada/

We'll see what happens, but the best polling is being done internally and if you want to know where the closest races are you need to track deployment of resources, like for instance CA volunteers.

coming from the poster thats always making excuses for polls that dont have hitlery ahead...

(10-28-2016 10:33 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-28-2016 10:28 AM)Max Power Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 08:58 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Lol it means NV's in the bag and we're greedy and want AZ too. Of the 7 polls since Oct 14, Trump has only led in 2, and both of those by a single point. See:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...t/arizona/

Volunteers canvass, knock on doors, recruit other volunteers, identify likely voters and arrange for transportation to polling places. For the CA volunteers to leave NV for AZ tells you AZ is closer. DNC smells blood in the water, er desert.

Thats not being greedy. Thats being stupid.

If republicans flip Nevada in the senate race, there is almost no way for democrats to take control of the senate. The latest NBC poll out of NV has the republican up 7 points over the democrat. And the latest NBC poll shows a tie for Trump, and that Trump is shooting way up over the past week, and Hillary is dropping like a rock.

So, reality doesnt match your little fantasy land where you think you have NV in the bag and you are going for AZ as well. Reality says NV will certainly see a senate flip, and the trend shows the state is going for Trump.

Look at the map below. That is the map the Clinton camp is looking at. Trump is assured a tie or a victory if ANY other state or partial state goes to him.

Hahahahaha. More cherrypicking. Even reputable polls will come up with a result way off 1 of 20 times due to random sampling error.

Fact is, Cortez Masto (the Dem in the NV senate race) has led in 4 of the 5 polls released in the past week. You cherrypick the one she doesn't and proclaim that's absolutely, doubtless where the race stands. More dishonesty from your side.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...te/nevada/

We'll see what happens, but the best polling is being done internally and if you want to know where the closest races are you need to track deployment of resources, like for instance CA volunteers.

Uh, you do realize that the average of your cherrypicked last 5 polls has Heck up +2?

For ***** sake, going by the last 5 polls isn't cherrypicking, in fact it's RCP's method of averaging polls. It's actually tied if you do that, but with one clear outlier in the bunch that method wouldn't be advisable here because as I said it can be explained by random sampling error.

This stupid election can't come soon enough. I thought after 2012 conservatives would learn their lesson and stop fighting reality. Oh well, it will make for a fun night and schadenfreude trip the following days. "B-b-but how did we lose? Minnesota was a tossup right?!" LOL

(10-28-2016 10:35 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  

(10-28-2016 10:28 AM)Max Power Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 10:49 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 08:58 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Lol it means NV's in the bag and we're greedy and want AZ too. Of the 7 polls since Oct 14, Trump has only led in 2, and both of those by a single point. See:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...t/arizona/

Volunteers canvass, knock on doors, recruit other volunteers, identify likely voters and arrange for transportation to polling places. For the CA volunteers to leave NV for AZ tells you AZ is closer. DNC smells blood in the water, er desert.

Thats not being greedy. Thats being stupid.

If republicans flip Nevada in the senate race, there is almost no way for democrats to take control of the senate. The latest NBC poll out of NV has the republican up 7 points over the democrat. And the latest NBC poll shows a tie for Trump, and that Trump is shooting way up over the past week, and Hillary is dropping like a rock.

So, reality doesnt match your little fantasy land where you think you have NV in the bag and you are going for AZ as well. Reality says NV will certainly see a senate flip, and the trend shows the state is going for Trump.

Look at the map below. That is the map the Clinton camp is looking at. Trump is assured a tie or a victory if ANY other state or partial state goes to him.

Hahahahaha. More cherrypicking. Even reputable polls will come up with a result way off 1 of 20 times due to random sampling error.

Fact is, Cortez Masto (the Dem in the NV senate race) has led in 4 of the 5 polls released in the past week. You cherrypick the one she doesn't and proclaim that's absolutely, doubtless where the race stands. More dishonesty from your side.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...te/nevada/

We'll see what happens, but the best polling is being done internally and if you want to know where the closest races are you need to track deployment of resources, like for instance CA volunteers.

coming from the poster thats always making excuses for polls that dont have hitlery ahead...

The only poll that has Trump ahead now is LAT, which has methodological flaws that have been listed here exhaustively. They weigh their polls in ways that are highly unadvisable and which no other reputable pollster does. Even super GOP biased Rasmussen which had Romney winning in 2012 has it tied, and IBD/TIPP --the only reputable pollster which had Trump on top briefly -- now has Hillary +3. I never claimed IBD/TIPP was systematically flawed and it looks like it's corrected itself. The brief dip can be explained by random sampling error.

There is absolutely no way Trump wins Minnesota or Michigan. I think Pennsylvania could be in play but it'll take a huge turnout from the rural areas, combined with limited Democratic votes from Philly and Pittsburgh. Wisconsin is in a similar situation as PA, but I think the general Democratic lean of Wisconsin will swing it to Clinton.

Personally, I think Colorado will be the decider.

(10-28-2016 04:13 AM)shiftyeagle Wrote:  If you think Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are toss-ups, then you're setting yourself up for a sad night come November

October 28, 2016 Aliquippa, Pennsylvania Get Out the Vote Bill Clinton
October 28, 2016 Duncansville, Pennsylvania Get Out the Vote Bill Clinton
October 28, 2016 Reading, Pennsylvania Get Out the Vote Bill Clinton

October 28, 2016 Duluth, Minnesota Get Out the Vote Vice President Joe Biden

October 29, 2016 Muskegon, Michigan Get Out the Vote Chelsea Clinton
October 29, 2016 Battle Creek, Michigan Get Out the Vote Chelsea Clinton

October 30, 2016 Taylor, Michigan Get Out the Vote Tim Kaine
October 30, 2016 Warren, Michigan Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights Rally Tim Kaine

November 1, 2016 Appleton, Wisconsin Early Vote Rally Tim Kaine
November 1, 2016 Madison, Wisconsin Early Vote Rally Tim Kaine
-- hillaryspeeches.com

watch what they do ...
not what they say ...

WHY YOU SO DEFENSIVE

(10-28-2016 10:45 AM)Max Power Wrote:  "B-b-but how did we lose? Minnesota was a tossup right?!" LOL

In a simulation where Trump has a winning map and wins in Michigan, he also won in Minnesota 75 percent of the time, Wisconsin 84 percent of the time, and Ohio every time.
-- 538

BUT MUH NATE