YOU'LL SEE

MN will vote heavily blue. Probably WI as well.

Sorry.

(10-27-2016 12:30 PM)green Wrote:  

YOU'LL SEE

I think Trump takes Nevada. But it will be tough to take any of those others. I think its the criminal 272, the orange clown 266 and 48-45 popular vote. Either way, we probably have 4 years of the worst president in our history.

(10-27-2016 12:38 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  MN will vote heavily blue. Probably WI as well.

Sorry.

They've both been close in the polls, moreso than Pennsylvania, Colorado or Virginia. I think Wisconsin will end up being somewhat close. Minnesota has a history of voting for weird candidates, so it might be close as well.

Wisconsin though was not Trump territory in the primary at all. He is going to have to win a blue state in which the modern Romney republican is very popular. That just sounds like a tough out to me

Clinton is up 7 on Trump in Michigan, announced today.

Although it's lower than it was in early October (11 point difference).

My only reasoning is that Trump was on top of his game when talking about trade and "punishing" automakers who build cars elsewhere. That probably got some old UAW types to sway.

MI will still likely go blue. But Trump's appeal to union rank n' file is a formidable Hail Mary throw.

Johnson's still polling pretty strong here in MI at 9%.

(10-27-2016 12:38 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  MN will vote heavily blue. Probably WI as well.

Sorry.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/201...12-points/

Vice President Biden is making a campaign stop for Hillary Clinton on Friday at the University of Minnesota Duluth
-- @juliannePOLS

SORRY. NOT SORRY.

(10-27-2016 12:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 12:30 PM)green Wrote:  

YOU'LL SEE

I think Trump takes Nevada. But it will be tough to take any of those others. I think its the criminal 272, the orange clown 266 and 48-45 popular vote. Either way, we probably have 4 years of the worst president in our history.

I think Pennsylvania and Nevada goes Trump, in which case he could afford to lose NC, GA, AZ, IA, or UT. FL is a must win, but it is looking good there.

Delusional.

Re Nevada, GOP is getting crushed. Per Ralston, the leading Nevada political expert:

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/statu...3258151936

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
How bad has early voting been for GOP in NV? #nv03 contender @DannyTarkanian tells GOP women's group last night “we're all going down.”

(10-27-2016 01:41 PM)Max Power Wrote:  

Yeah ok. If all these conservatives were half as confident as they claim the betting markets wouldn't have Hillary as a 5:1 favorite.

(10-27-2016 01:56 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Yeah ok. If all these conservatives were half as confident as they claim the betting markets wouldn't have Hillary as a 5:1 favorite.

BUT MUH BETTING MARKETS

(10-27-2016 02:00 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 01:56 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Yeah ok. If all these conservatives were half as confident as they claim the betting markets wouldn't have Hillary as a 5:1 favorite.

BUT MUH BETTING MARKETS

99 isn't 100. In fact, 1 out of every 100 times you see that a candidate has a 99% chance, that candidate loses. Funny how numbers work.

There is just no precedent for an election like this, with the quality, diversity and quantity of polling out there nationally this cycle, to be off this much.

(10-27-2016 02:21 PM)Max Power Wrote:  99 isn't 100. In fact, 1 out of every 100 times you see that a candidate has a 99% chance, that candidate loses. Funny how numbers work.

There is just no precedent for an election like this, with the quality, diversity and quantity of polling out there nationally this cycle, to be off this much.

You see it in the polls. The media polls are starting to move in his direction (they can't erase a 12 point lead overnight and maintain credibility.

ABC Clinton +12 -> Clinton +9 -> Clinton +6 in three days
FoxNews Clinton +9 -> Clinton +3
Reuters Clinton +7 -> Clinton +4

In short, there is no credibility. At least IBD/TIPP, Rassmussen, and La Times have been consistent showing a race either way in the margin of error. That's where it is and the winner will depend on turnout.

Lol didn't Rasmussen jump from like Hillary +12 to Trump +1 overnight? Talk about credibility.

Plenty of other polls have gone the other way, eg AP and Bloomberg. LAT doesn't move because it re-polls the same panel. It's not going to move that much by design.

I do think some reluctant GOPers are coming home, but that just gets Trump to 40%. Not enough, and plus too many millions of people have already voted while he was down bigly for him to make a comeback by pulling even.

Who cares? We're screwed either way.

(10-27-2016 01:43 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Re Nevada, GOP is getting crushed. Per Ralston, the leading Nevada political expert:

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/statu...3258151936

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
How bad has early voting been for GOP in NV? #nv03 contender @DannyTarkanian tells GOP women's group last night “we're all going down.”

On the other hand the last poll shows Trump tied and Heck is now leading the RCP average.