wow for tonight's game:
Since the beginning of last season, Jake Arrieta has made six starts in the state of California. He has allowed a total of two runs in those starts. One of them was a no-hitter at Dodger Stadium in Aug. of 2015.

*Hello? Is this thing on?*

The series is FAR from over but I have to be thrilled with tonight's result...
- Hill pitching 6 innings and giving up only 2 hits is HUGE. Actually, any non-Kershaw starter pitching well is huge.
- Dodgers clubhouse confidence has to be very high after hanging with Lester, beating Hendricks, and beating Arrieta
- Cubs clubhouse confidence probably not that great. Haven't hit a lick in the last two games.
- Urias v Lackey tomorrow is a winnable matchup but much less so if Urias can't get well into the game (5 innings minimum?)
- If Dodgers CAN win, I love the idea of Kershaw on short rest at home trying to close out the series. Which then sets him up to pitch Game 1 of the WS on regular rest. Yes, I know that's counting way too many chickens before they're hatched but it's now at least a reasonable potential outcome.

Uh-oh. Jason Heyward hitting disease now spreading. Need to nip it in the bud.

Dodgers were terrible against LHP this year: .214 AVG. Cubs in the playoffs vs LHP: .149 AVG, and now .102 against Dodgers LHP. To be fair, that includes some very good left handed pitching (Bumgarner, Moore, Kershaw, Hill), but with LHP Urias going tonight, maybe it's getting into their heads a little? I can only hope...

Looks like Cleveland is going to be well rested for the World Series.

(10-19-2016 12:47 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  - If Dodgers CAN win, I love the idea of Kershaw on short rest at home trying to close out the series. Which then sets him up to pitch Game 1 of the WS on regular rest. Yes, I know that's counting way too many chickens before they're hatched but it's now at least a reasonable potential outcome.

That would be Kershaw vs. Lester in game 5.

Dodgers' options for starters, if the series goes 7, seem to be: Kershaw/Hill/Urias-Maeda, or Maeda/Kershaw/Hill, depending on who Roberts sends out to start game 5.

(10-19-2016 04:08 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-19-2016 12:47 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  - If Dodgers CAN win, I love the idea of Kershaw on short rest at home trying to close out the series. Which then sets him up to pitch Game 1 of the WS on regular rest. Yes, I know that's counting way too many chickens before they're hatched but it's now at least a reasonable potential outcome.

That would be Kershaw vs. Lester in game 5.

Dodgers' options for starters, if the series goes 7, seem to be: Kershaw/Hill/Urias-Maeda, or Maeda/Kershaw/Hill, depending on who Roberts sends out to start game 5.

I don't know if Urias would be a candidate for a game 7. They've been trying to baby him and I really doubt they'd put him out there on short rest. Maeda scares the crap out of me right now. And they've got one more "starter" on the roster: Ross Stripling. He could factor in there somewhere.

Well, never mind. Roberts says Maeda is starting Game 5. Period. No doubt.

Heard that before?

Looks like they CAN hit lefties.

Maeda v Lester tomorrow is, let's face it, problematic for LA. Then we get Kershaw v Hendricks to (hopefully) force a game 7 that looks like all-staff v Arrieta.

Man, Dodgers really needed the game tonight...

Starting Maeda against Lester tonight is like buying a lottery ticket and hoping for the best.

And then putting all your chips on the table to bet on Kershaw and Hill both winning in Chicago.

(10-20-2016 11:01 AM)Wedge Wrote:  Starting Maeda against Lester tonight is like buying a lottery ticket and hoping for the best.

And then putting all your chips on the table to bet on Kershaw and Hill both winning in Chicago.

And I'm not entirely sure it's Hill in game 7. He'll likely start but he's got this ongoing blister thing and they've been really careful with him. So even if he starts there's no telling how far he can/will go.

I get it though. Kershaw has taken on a huge load in the last 10 days. And if he pitches tonight you've got to win one game in Chicago with, presumably, Maeda and Hill/staff against Hendricks and Arrieta. It's still a tall order.

I guess the one thought is that Maeda would do better at home. But I actually thought he looked better vs the Cubs than he did the Nats. Much crisper.

Decent analysis, that echoes some of the points made here:

- Dodgers almost stole Game 1 with a Maeda start
- He's on full rest
- Kershaw workload
- Dodgers have to win a road game to advance - better Kershaw and/or Hill, both on full rest, than Maeda

game times are actually not doing too badly.... at least half of them...

ALCS averaged 2:55 for the 5 games- with 3 games under 2:45
NLCS thru 4 games 3:25. With shortest game 2:45

(10-20-2016 12:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  game times are actually not doing too badly.... at least half of them...

ALCS averaged 2:55 for the 5 games- with 3 games under 2:45
NLCS thru 4 games 3:25. With shortest game 2:45

I predict the average will increase tonight.

so amazing to think, if the Cubs win the NLCS, we're going to have 2 of the 3 longest teams in North American pro sports with a title drought. Only the Arizona Cardinals in football, who last won in 1947- is between them.

Thank goodness for that incentive-laden contract. When the Dodgers DFA Maeda next spring it'll only cost them $21MM.

Maeda to me got lucky in his mix of starts in the regular season....

23 starts vs losing teams. 3.18 ERA in that start. 28/138 bb/k ratio.
12 starts now vs winning teams to include playoffs. 4.82 ERA in those starts. 29/53 bb/k ratio

So to get 2/3 of your starts vs bad teams is a huge break. 6 with Arizona, 4 ea with Colorado and San Diego 3 games in Petco.

I am way more comfortable with the bullpen than Maeda.

(10-20-2016 08:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Maeda to me got lucky in his mix of starts in the regular season....

23 starts vs losing teams. 3.18 ERA in that start. 28/138 bb/k ratio.
12 starts now vs winning teams to include playoffs. 4.82 ERA in those starts. 29/53 bb/k ratio

So to get 2/3 of your starts vs bad teams is a huge break. 6 with Arizona, 4 ea with Colorado and San Diego 3 games in Petco.

I'm curious what that would look like for a random pitcher on a good team. Let's go with Kluber in the AL and Hendricks in the NL