What has to happen for Houston or Louisville to make the playoffs? Here's what:

First, factors in common:

1) Each has to win out to make the playoffs, so it is an "or" situation, not possible for both to make it.

2) Neither can get in over a one-loss ACC, B1G, or SEC champ.

Houston's situation:

Houston's situation is cut and dried. Houston will not get in over any unbeaten P5 champ, nor can they get in over any one-loss ACC, B1G, or SEC champ. Since in all liklihood all three of the latter conferences will have champs with one or fewer losses, Houston must beat out the PAC and Big 12 champs to make the playoffs, and IMO they will beat out all but unbeaten PAC or Big 12 champs.

This means Houston must hope that the PAC and Big 12 champs have at least one loss. Since the only unbeaten PAC and Big 12 teams remaining are Baylor, WVU, and Washington, their ticket to the playoffs is ...

Win out, and have Baylor, Washington and WVU lose a game.

Louisville's situation

Louisville is in worse situation than Houston, because unlike Houston, Louisville will NOT get in over a one-loss PAC or Big 12 champ. That's because they have already lost a game, and they almost surely will not be the ACC champ, and the CFP format gives great weight to conference champs.

Thus, they must hope that the PAC and Big 12 champs each have two losses. That means hoping Baylor, Washington, and WVU all lose twice, and teams like Stanford also lose again.

In short, UL needs a lot more help to make the playoffs than does Houston.

(10-06-2016 08:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  What has to happen for Houston or Louisville to make the playoffs? Here's what:

First, factors in common:

1) Each has to win out to make the playoffs, so it is an "or" situation, not possible for both to make it.

2) Neither can get in over a one-loss ACC, B1G, or SEC champ.

Houston's situation:

Houston's situation is cut and dried. Houston will not get in over any unbeaten P5 champ, nor can they get in over any one-loss ACC, B1G, or SEC champ. Since in all liklihood all three conferences will have champs with one or fewer losses, Houston must beat out the PAC and Big 12 champs to make the playoffs, and IMO they will beat out all but unbeaten PAC or Big 12 champs.

This means Houston must hope that the PAC and Big 12 champs have at least one loss. Since the only unbeaten PAC and Big 12 teams remaining are Baylor, WVU, and Washington, their ticket to the playoffs is ...

Win out, and have Baylor, Washington and WVU lose a game.

Louisville's situation

Louisville is in worse situation than Houston, because unlike Houston, Louisville will NOT get in over a one-loss PAC or Big 12 champ. That's because they have already lost a game, and they almost surely will not be the ACC champ, and the CFP format gives great weight to conference champs.

Thus, they must hope that the PAC and Big 12 champs each have two losses. That means hoping Baylor, Washington, and WVU all lose twice, and teams like Stanford also lose again.

In short, UL needs a lot more help to make the playoffs than does Houston.

Providing Houston can beat Louisville thisyear and that is indeed a big if!

Louisville situation is simple...win out and see what happens...period...do that we are either going to Atlanta, Dallas, Glendale Arizona or Miami....

I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

I really think Louisville and Houston are in the same boat quite frankly. The winner of that game- if they win out will get in unless one of Baylor, WVU, or Washington wins out.

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

It's hard to imagine that a CFP committee would put team B into the playoffs over team A, where A is a P5 conference champ and B is not, and they have the same won-loss record. That, IMO, is just not going to happen.

But maybe we shall see?

(10-06-2016 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

It's hard to imagine that a CFP committee would put team B into the playoffs over team A, where A is a P5 conference champ and B is not, and they have the same won-loss record. That, IMO, is just not going to happen.

But maybe we shall see?

The thing is, Washington's (and Baylor's) OOC schedule is something that the committee doesn't want to reward in any fashion. I think a conference championship means something, but it's not the end all be all to the committee.

(10-06-2016 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

It's hard to imagine that a CFP committee would put team B into the playoffs over team A, where A is a P5 conference champ and B is not, and they have the same won-loss record. That, IMO, is just not going to happen.

But maybe we shall see?

In both Houston's and Louisville's cases, all that either of them need to accomplish is win every game convincingly. Only one of those two teams will get into the playoffs. They both need to obliterate their competition from here on out. When they play each other, may the best team win.

(10-06-2016 10:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

It's hard to imagine that a CFP committee would put team B into the playoffs over team A, where A is a P5 conference champ and B is not, and they have the same won-loss record. That, IMO, is just not going to happen.

But maybe we shall see?

The thing is, Washington's (and Baylor's) OOC schedule is something that the committee doesn't want to reward in any fashion. I think a conference championship means something, but it's not the end all be all to the committee.

tough call....

12-1 Washington
11-1 Louisville

Once again, at the end of the season, the committee would be watching Washington play someone for a conference championship while Louisville sat home....

I'd think Washington would get the nod

(10-06-2016 10:05 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

It's hard to imagine that a CFP committee would put team B into the playoffs over team A, where A is a P5 conference champ and B is not, and they have the same won-loss record. That, IMO, is just not going to happen.

But maybe we shall see?

In both Houston's and Louisville's cases, all that either of them need to accomplish is win every game convincingly. Only one of those two teams will get into the playoffs. They both need to obliterate their competition from here on out. When they play each other, may the best team win.

^^^^
This!!

Louisville and Houston only can control what they can control and that is the games they play going forward...neither at this point can or should even worry or care about what else is going on...period....

(10-06-2016 10:10 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 10:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

It's hard to imagine that a CFP committee would put team B into the playoffs over team A, where A is a P5 conference champ and B is not, and they have the same won-loss record. That, IMO, is just not going to happen.

But maybe we shall see?

The thing is, Washington's (and Baylor's) OOC schedule is something that the committee doesn't want to reward in any fashion. I think a conference championship means something, but it's not the end all be all to the committee.

tough call....

12-1 Washington
11-1 Louisville

Once again, at the end of the season, the committee would be watching Washington play someone for a conference championship while Louisville sat home....

I'd think Washington would get the nod

Yes. Especially since the CFP says that the non-champ has to be "unequivocally" better than the champ. That is a very high bar to reach for two teams with the same record who didn't play head to head.

(10-06-2016 10:10 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 10:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

It's hard to imagine that a CFP committee would put team B into the playoffs over team A, where A is a P5 conference champ and B is not, and they have the same won-loss record. That, IMO, is just not going to happen.

But maybe we shall see?

The thing is, Washington's (and Baylor's) OOC schedule is something that the committee doesn't want to reward in any fashion. I think a conference championship means something, but it's not the end all be all to the committee.

tough call....

12-1 Washington
11-1 Louisville

Once again, at the end of the season, the committee would be watching Washington play someone for a conference championship while Louisville sat home....

I'd think Washington would get the nod

but it's very possible the team they are playing is a 3 or 4 loss unranked team that they would have already played.

just think the schedule is going to be a pretty big problem for Washington.

And if it's 11-1 Baylor vs 11-1 Louisville- no competition at all there.... Louisville- and not even close.

It would be criminal to leave Louisville out over other 1-loss teams, assuming if they don't lose another game. Jackson is the most electrifying payer in the game. The committee is comprised of people that understand the TV ratings implications.

(10-06-2016 10:16 AM)stever20 Wrote:  just think the schedule is going to be a pretty big problem for Washington.

And if it's 11-1 Baylor vs 11-1 Louisville- no competition at all there.... Louisville- and not even close.

Louisville's schedule is not all that "great" either though. Not with the FSU win meaning less and less. They'd have a close loss on the road at a top 5 team, and a win on the road vs. a top 5-10 team, and little else that stands out.

Obviously you know who I'd like to see get in, but UofL's SOS is not that strong either. Tough to get in over a champ with the same number of losses, and one more win, with Louisville's current SOS. Unless another team on the schedule finishes stronger than expected.

There is still a whole lot of football to be played.

Houston has to win out. And probably needs help.

Louisville has to win out, and DEFINITELY needs help.

But this is college football --- teams at the top lose to teams they shouldn't all the time. It will happen this year too. The rest of the season will be fun to watch, that's for sure.

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

I really think Louisville and Houston are in the same boat quite frankly. The winner of that game- if they win out will get in unless one of Baylor, WVU, or Washington wins out.

Louisville isn't getting in over a conference champion with the same number of losses.

Houston might get in if unbeaten over a 1 loss P5 champ, but probably not. They need there to be no more than 3 P5 champs with 1 loss or less.

(10-06-2016 10:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 10:10 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 10:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

It's hard to imagine that a CFP committee would put team B into the playoffs over team A, where A is a P5 conference champ and B is not, and they have the same won-loss record. That, IMO, is just not going to happen.

But maybe we shall see?

The thing is, Washington's (and Baylor's) OOC schedule is something that the committee doesn't want to reward in any fashion. I think a conference championship means something, but it's not the end all be all to the committee.

tough call....

12-1 Washington
11-1 Louisville

Once again, at the end of the season, the committee would be watching Washington play someone for a conference championship while Louisville sat home....

I'd think Washington would get the nod

Yes. Especially since the CFP says that the non-champ has to be "unequivocally" better than the champ. That is a very high bar to reach for two teams with the same record who didn't play head to head.

Right. A lot of wishful thinking by ACC fans here. They have made it clear "conference champ" is a huge plus. UL's best chance is to win out and have Clemson to lose two.

(10-06-2016 11:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally disagree that Louisville would need a 2 loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ. If it's Louisville at 11-1 and Washington at 12-1, with the putrid OOC schedule Washington has- and really schedule overall- I think Louisville would get it- and it wouldn't be all that close.

I really think Louisville and Houston are in the same boat quite frankly. The winner of that game- if they win out will get in unless one of Baylor, WVU, or Washington wins out.

Louisville isn't getting in over a conference champion with the same number of losses.

Houston might get in if unbeaten over a 1 loss P5 champ, but probably not. They need there to be no more than 3 P5 champs with 1 loss or less.

I pretty much guarantee if the 1 loss P5 champ is Baylor, Louisville gets in over them. They do not want to reward Baylor's putrid OOC schedule in any fashion.

I just don't think the conference champion piece is as hard and fast of a rule as folks here want to make it out to be.

Lets wait until November 1 and let the CFP committee have a say.
CJ

(10-06-2016 11:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  Louisville isn't getting in over a conference champion with the same number of losses.

Yep.

(10-06-2016 11:38 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Lets wait until November 1 and let the CFP committee have a say.
CJ

As was noted yesterday, the initial CFP rankings don't mean much. In 2014, only one of the initially ranked teams made the playoffs, in 2015, only two did.