David Plouffe does not have an official role in this campaign, but most of the Clinton data people are people with whom he worked on behalf of Obama, he has regular contact with them, and on his own he remains one of the smartest people about election data around.

What he's saying about the internal polls in Florida is consistent with what I've heard. The Clinton internal pollsters survey 10,000 every day while the typical poll does like 700-800, so they have a damn good idea on the state of the race. And they're confident, cocky even.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plu...d96dd04b44

Quote:THE PLUM LINE: You have said that public polls are garbage — Jim Messina said the same in a recent Political Wire podcast — and that everything is about the composition of the electorate at this point. Can you expand on that?

DAVID PLOUFFE: Some polls closely capture where the race stands. But they’re very incomplete. The Clinton campaign is doing large samples for modeling surveys of everybody on the voter file. So you have a very good understanding of how you believe 100 percent of the electorate will be allocated on election day.

When you look at how 100 percent of the vote is likely to be allocated in Florida, I get very optimistic….I can get Donald Trump to within two or three in Pennsylvania, but I can’t get him to a win number. The same is true in Virginia and Colorado. I know everybody goes crazy about the latest Cheetos poll, but I feel very confident about both New Hampshire and Florida. So that puts her over 300 [in the electoral college]. Trump has to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.

FINISH HIM!!!!

so the poster thats always posting poll numbers... is claiming that the polls are not reliable?

But muh plouffe!

Oh I'm saying polls are reliable. And the most reliable are the Clinton internals.

Meh. Trump is winner with the secret vote.

The more Hilliary shows herself in public the better chance Trump has.

Max must have his own batshit cave filled with receptors for bad liberal propaganda.

This was an interview with Obama's campaign manager in the Washington Post. Don't need much of a receptor for that.

(09-26-2016 03:39 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Oh I'm saying polls are reliable. And the most reliable are the Clinton internals.

The real Clinton internal polls are reliable. I told you that 2 months ago. I also told you what they said. They said Georgia wasnt real, even when the "other polls" said it was. They said Utah wasnt real, even when the "other polls" said it was competitive. It said PA was going to be a problem. It said MI could be a problem. It said the rust belt was in trouble for her. It said FL and OH were out of reach for her.

And her internal polls were correct.

What her internal polling at the time didnt see was the shift of women and african american votes to Trump, and a better running with hispanics for Trump.

So now we have NM and CO in play. We have IL getting too close for comfort. We see Wisconsin slipping away. And we see even more erosion from the rust belt.

Hillary's problem wasnt her internal polling. It was the fact she never went on offense and took the AA vote for granted.

Her real problem is that other than diehard party water carriers, the electorate in this country has hated her guts for almost 3 decades.

If they're so confident... cocky even, why aren't they working on Congress and some coat-tails? I mean, she may well win in a run-away... but you'd never know it by the campaign's actions.

(09-26-2016 04:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  We have IL getting too close for comfort.

(09-26-2016 05:03 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  If they're so confident... cocky even, why aren't they working on Congress and some coat-tails? I mean, she may well win in a run-away... but you'd never know it by the campaign's actions.

Plenty of resources have been diverted to downballot races, incl. millions raised. The more popular surrogates have been appearing with candidates like Hassan and Teachout.

(09-26-2016 05:20 PM)Max Power Wrote:  

(09-26-2016 05:03 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  If they're so confident... cocky even, why aren't they working on Congress and some coat-tails? I mean, she may well win in a run-away... but you'd never know it by the campaign's actions.

Plenty of resources have been diverted to downballot races, incl. millions raised. The more popular surrogates have been appearing with candidates like Hassan and Teachout.

Diverted? Not a dime.

From the AP
Clinton’s campaign had its most expensive month to date in August, eclipsing its previous monthly high by more than $12 million. And combined, Clinton and the national Democratic Party paid out $78 million in August, while Trump and the Republican National Committee spent about $47 million.

I haven't seen any ads in California... a state that Hillary has wrapped up, lobbying for ANY candidates.

Not one.

Sure, the DNC is spending money downstream, but they're still spending vastly more than Republicans, on an election that they supposedly have all wrapped up?

When Hillary starts stumping with Governors and Senators in non-battle ground states, THEN we can talk about 'diverting'. I'm betting she spends election day in a battle ground state.

The fear is strong with this one...

(09-26-2016 05:03 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  If they're so confident... cocky even, why aren't they working on Congress and some coat-tails? I mean, she may well win in a run-away... but you'd never know it by the campaign's actions.

Too busy sleeping

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

(09-26-2016 05:17 PM)Max Power Wrote:  

(09-26-2016 04:38 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  We have IL getting too close for comfort.

is +6 in IL that funny to you?

Wow, Obama's campaign manager had to have really dug deep to say that. I mean I know he is a big Trump supporter and wants the Evil Witch to lose. Please, find a better source. Anyway, I know the left is doing all they can to illegally steal this election, but we still vote in this country. I will wait until after the vote. I know this, for all the posts the OP makes like this, he has to be scared to death.

(09-26-2016 03:11 PM)Max Power Wrote:  David Plouffe does not have an official role in this campaign, but most of the Clinton data people are people with whom he worked on behalf of Obama, he has regular contact with them, and on his own he remains one of the smartest people about election data around.

What he's saying about the internal polls in Florida is consistent with what I've heard. The Clinton internal pollsters survey 10,000 every day while the typical poll does like 700-800, so they have a damn good idea on the state of the race. And they're confident, cocky even.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plu...d96dd04b44

Quote:THE PLUM LINE: You have said that public polls are garbage — Jim Messina said the same in a recent Political Wire podcast — and that everything is about the composition of the electorate at this point. Can you expand on that?

DAVID PLOUFFE: Some polls closely capture where the race stands. But they’re very incomplete. The Clinton campaign is doing large samples for modeling surveys of everybody on the voter file. So you have a very good understanding of how you believe 100 percent of the electorate will be allocated on election day.

When you look at how 100 percent of the vote is likely to be allocated in Florida, I get very optimistic….I can get Donald Trump to within two or three in Pennsylvania, but I can’t get him to a win number. The same is true in Virginia and Colorado. I know everybody goes crazy about the latest Cheetos poll, but I feel very confident about both New Hampshire and Florida. So that puts her over 300 [in the electoral college]. Trump has to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.

FINISH HIM!!!!

Anyone who has taken a statistics course knows you only need roughly 500 random people to create a random poll with a margin of error of 3%. So it doesn't matter whether you interview 500 or 10000 the polls will be similar.

IMO, that says more about Hillary supporters than about anything Trump. The fact that anyone can still vote for that lady is mind-numbing.