(07-22-2016 10:48 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(07-22-2016 10:40 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-22-2016 10:35 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(07-22-2016 08:33 PM)AusTxPony Wrote:  Wouldn't be too surprised if there were 6 teams in the expansion. If so, I think UConn and SMU get the last two spots. 4 teams, UC, Memphis, Houston and BYU (if they can work out problems). 2 teams, then UC (for WVU) and BYU. My thinking is based on the fact that the Big 12 contract calls for equal pay from TV for all expansion teams. However, the new teams will not receive the money for as long as 10 years, the old teams will split it. More teams, more money for the existing members. That is what the "proposals" are all about, how long each expansion school is willing to give up the TV money. The richest schools have a leg up. There seems to be little interest in Fla. teams or MWC teams here in Texas (out of the "footprint" of the conference which hurts UConn too). Don't know about elsewhere.

It's definitely not six since the word is the big 12 is now only considering 2.

Where did you hear that?

Saw it on a few twitter posts I'll try and find them. In my opinion though nothing is true until it is officially confirmed.

No, really?

The basis for my post was the Austin American Statesman paper. They should know something about what UT officials are thinking. The media is happy to hype the Expansion rumors, sells more papers...or internet time. I do know that SMU is making a proposal for entry even though the media bashes the thought that it will succeed. I agree the media has little real info to go on except for the tea leaves, but SMU will forego some bucks to get into the BigXII (as TCU and WVU had to) and our wealthy backers would help with the revenue stream. So we shall see.

The big 12 steals the best of the rest, byu, cinci, houston, uconn imo.

[quote='Stookey57' pid='13410224' dateline='1469310091']
The big 12 steals the best of the rest, byu, cinci, houston, uconn imo.
[/t

Best? Debatable on who's best. Everyone involved thinks their team is best and deserves it.

How many years before the LHN and GOR ends? Unless revenue sharing is equal, this is still a conference that folds to make four. It is a boon for those that join, but for how long. It is better than not getting invited at all, I guess.

(07-23-2016 07:04 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  How many years before the LHN and GOR ends? Unless revenue sharing is equal, this is still a conference that folds to make four. It is a boon for those that join, but for how long. It is better than not getting invited at all, I guess.

Big 12 GoR currently runs until 2025. LHN contract runs until 2031.

The Big 12 will take 4.

Cincinnati, Houston, USF and UCF.

If the Big XII takes four, it will be Houston, Cincy, BYU, and Colorado State.

Here's why:
1. Houston because of it's top ten television market (#10), and it appears that Texas politics and UT-Austin will play a role. What Texas wants Texas gets. (see aforementioned UT president tweet and tweets regarding quid pro quo UH removal of the decades old opposition to a UT-Houston)
2. Cincinnati because of it's television market (#36) and to finally provide a geographic balance for WVU.
3. BYU because of it's television market (#34), it's name recognition; and it adds a second (cozy eh?) religiously oriented private to balance Baylor.
4. Colorado State because of it's top twenty television market (#17) and to geographically balance the western side of the Big XII with BYU as Cincy will balance the east. The new 41,000 seat stadium doesn't hurt either.

Memphis is a longer shot with a lower television market of 50 and a slightly awkward geographic location. Additionally, GaSt fan Panama noted today that every single P5 school is a USNWR Tier 1 institution. Memphis would be the first non Tier 1. I am not, however, sure whether that is important to the the Big XII or not.

UConn has been mentioned, but it is too far of a geographic outllier, and is located in (NE US) a place where football is either stagnant or actually losing popularity. Not much of a chance for them. IMO.

If the BigXII takes only two, I think it more likely that Houston and Cincy are the ones chosen because of WVU and UT promoting Houston.
Either way I think the AAC only loses two, in which case the AAC might not backfill at all.

Television DMA source:
https://www.tvb.org/Portals/0/media/file...-ranks.pdf

USNWR source:
https://www.usnewsuniversitydirectory.co...ersities/#

(07-23-2016 11:27 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  If the Big XII takes four, it will be Houston, Cincy, BYU, and Colorado State.

Here's why:
1. Houston because of it's top ten television market (#10), and it appears that Texas politics and UT-Austin will play a role. What Texas wants Texas gets. (see aforementioned UT president tweet and tweets regarding quid pro quo UH removal of the decades old opposition to a UT-Houston)
2. Cincinnati because of it's television market (#36) and to finally provide a geographic balance for WVU.
3. BYU because of it's television market (#34), it's name recognition; and it adds a second (cozy eh?) religiously oriented private to balance Baylor.
4. Colorado State because of it's top twenty television market (#17) and to geographically balance the western side of the Big XII with BYU as Cincy will balance the east. The new 41,000 seat stadium doesn't hurt either.

Memphis is a longer shot with a lower television market of 50 and a slightly awkward geographic location. Additionally, GaSt fan Panama noted today that every single P5 school is a USNWR Tier 1 institution. Memphis would be the first non Tier 1. I am not, however, sure whether that is important to the the Big XII or not.

UConn has been mentioned, but it is too far of a geographic outllier, and is located in (NE US) a place where football is either stagnant or actually losing popularity. Not much of a chance for them. IMO.

If the BigXII takes only two, I think it more likely that Houston and Cincy are the ones chosen because of WVU and UT promoting Houston.
Either way I think the AAC only loses two, in which case the AAC might not backfill at all.

Television DMA source:
https://www.tvb.org/Portals/0/media/file...-ranks.pdf

USNWR source:
https://www.usnewsuniversitydirectory.co...ersities/#

Memphis is in a slightly awkward geographic geographic position? LOL. They are closer to the current B12 footprint than any other candidate being mentioned except Houston, and even there, it is close.

The Pac-12 is at 12 schools so I think the Big 12 definitely going to tr 12. no way it would seem they go to 14. They would consider sharing their revenue with two teams definitely not four

(07-22-2016 10:26 PM)Cubanbull Wrote:  I think 2 because I don't think they can agree to take 4

My opinion: they seem to be adding 4, because they cannot agree on which 2.

(07-22-2016 11:12 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-22-2016 10:54 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(07-22-2016 10:40 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-22-2016 10:35 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(07-22-2016 08:33 PM)AusTxPony Wrote:  Wouldn't be too surprised if there were 6 teams in the expansion. If so, I think UConn and SMU get the last two spots. 4 teams, UC, Memphis, Houston and BYU (if they can work out problems). 2 teams, then UC (for WVU) and BYU. My thinking is based on the fact that the Big 12 contract calls for equal pay from TV for all expansion teams. However, the new teams will not receive the money for as long as 10 years, the old teams will split it. More teams, more money for the existing members. That is what the "proposals" are all about, how long each expansion school is willing to give up the TV money. The richest schools have a leg up. There seems to be little interest in Fla. teams or MWC teams here in Texas (out of the "footprint" of the conference which hurts UConn too). Don't know about elsewhere.

It's definitely not six since the word is the big 12 is now only considering 2.

Where did you hear that?

Looks like people are speculating it's two

http://www.scout.com/college/houston/for...g-only-two

because of this story.

http://www.scout.com/college/texas/story...-right-now

I read that article. Doesn't say a thing about it being two. It's rather a poor turn of a phrase.

To quote, it says:

"If it's a two-school expansion, as of right now - and things are fluid and in debate and by no means final - "

Then it goes on to say:

"There is big-time discussion going on about if the league should expand by two or four."

So, it doesn't say it's going to be two, at all.

Also, I know the Big 12 told us they were planning to add 4. Doesn't mean they won't change their minds, but that's what they said. This week. Things don't change that quickly, especially not with this bunch.

Consultants say they make more money if it's 4. So it will be 4.

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(07-23-2016 11:27 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  If the Big XII takes four, it will be Houston, Cincy, BYU, and Colorado State.

Here's why:
1. Houston because of it's top ten television market (#10), and it appears that Texas politics and UT-Austin will play a role. What Texas wants Texas gets. (see aforementioned UT president tweet and tweets regarding quid pro quo UH removal of the decades old opposition to a UT-Houston)
2. Cincinnati because of it's television market (#36) and to finally provide a geographic balance for WVU.
3. BYU because of it's television market (#34), it's name recognition; and it adds a second (cozy eh?) religiously oriented private to balance Baylor.
4. Colorado State because of it's top twenty television market (#17) and to geographically balance the western side of the Big XII with BYU as Cincy will balance the east. The new 41,000 seat stadium doesn't hurt either.

Memphis is a longer shot with a lower television market of 50 and a slightly awkward geographic location. Additionally, GaSt fan Panama noted today that every single P5 school is a USNWR Tier 1 institution. Memphis would be the first non Tier 1. I am not, however, sure whether that is important to the the Big XII or not.

UConn has been mentioned, but it is too far of a geographic outllier, and is located in (NE US) a place where football is either stagnant or actually losing popularity. Not much of a chance for them. IMO.

If the BigXII takes only two, I think it more likely that Houston and Cincy are the ones chosen because of WVU and UT promoting Houston.
Either way I think the AAC only loses two, in which case the AAC might not backfill at all.

Television DMA source:
https://www.tvb.org/Portals/0/media/file...-ranks.pdf

USNWR source:
https://www.usnewsuniversitydirectory.co...ersities/#

Don't forget soon the DMA's of Dayton & Cincinnati will be joined together creating a # 20 ranking with 1,331,100 TV sets. This is happening with in the next two years.

(07-23-2016 11:27 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  If the Big XII takes four, it will be Houston, Cincy, BYU, and Colorado State.

Here's why:
1. Houston because of it's top ten television market (#10), and it appears that Texas politics and UT-Austin will play a role. What Texas wants Texas gets. (see aforementioned UT president tweet and tweets regarding quid pro quo UH removal of the decades old opposition to a UT-Houston)
2. Cincinnati because of it's television market (#36) and to finally provide a geographic balance for WVU.
3. BYU because of it's television market (#34), it's name recognition; and it adds a second (cozy eh?) religiously oriented private to balance Baylor.
4. Colorado State because of it's top twenty television market (#17) and to geographically balance the western side of the Big XII with BYU as Cincy will balance the east. The new 41,000 seat stadium doesn't hurt either.

Memphis is a longer shot with a lower television market of 50 and a slightly awkward geographic location. Additionally, GaSt fan Panama noted today that every single P5 school is a USNWR Tier 1 institution. Memphis would be the first non Tier 1. I am not, however, sure whether that is important to the the Big XII or not.

UConn has been mentioned, but it is too far of a geographic outllier, and is located in (NE US) a place where football is either stagnant or actually losing popularity. Not much of a chance for them. IMO.

If the BigXII takes only two, I think it more likely that Houston and Cincy are the ones chosen because of WVU and UT promoting Houston.
Either way I think the AAC only loses two, in which case the AAC might not backfill at all.

Television DMA source:
https://www.tvb.org/Portals/0/media/file...-ranks.pdf

USNWR source:
https://www.usnewsuniversitydirectory.co...ersities/#

Seriously Colorado St? Almost every AAC team would be taken before them. People throw out their name without realizing how terrible an expansion candidate they are. You always hear the same talking points "Brand new stadium" or "Denver TV market" without hearing the whole truth like "tiny new stadium" and "zero TV interest". I think football only Boise is far more likely than them and they aren't likely.

I call 45k and $225M substantial not tiny.

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The AAC will lose 2 or 4. I think it is a foregone conclusion that Houston and Cincinnati will be the first two teams added.

Due to WVU already being on the East Coast and the entire conference wanting a footprint in Florida, UCF or USF will be the 13th team.

Memphis will most likely be the 14th team due to influence from FedEX.

I think BYU is a possibility but unlikely due to WVU already being in the conference, the opportunity to add schools from Florida, and the challenges with having BYU in the conference.

The AAC will then quickly add UMASS (basketball support and potential rivalry with UCONN), as well as Marshall to improve football. The AAC will then stay at 10/9 for the time being.

UMass has a football stadium problem and no plan in place.

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(07-24-2016 10:42 AM)panama Wrote:  UMass has a football stadium problem and no plan in place.

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Agreed and they have shown no real ambition besides "hey, invite us and we'll probably upgrade our facilities"

Can they not show initiative and do that beforehand? Plus they have abysmal football and i keep hearing basketball cred but when the hell was the last time their bball team DID something?

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(07-22-2016 07:33 PM)HartfordHusky Wrote:  I'm calling UCONN, UC, UH, and then BYU.

this

(07-24-2016 09:32 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(07-23-2016 11:27 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  If the Big XII takes four, it will be Houston, Cincy, BYU, and Colorado State.

Here's why:
1. Houston because of it's top ten television market (#10), and it appears that Texas politics and UT-Austin will play a role. What Texas wants Texas gets. (see aforementioned UT president tweet and tweets regarding quid pro quo UH removal of the decades old opposition to a UT-Houston)
2. Cincinnati because of it's television market (#36) and to finally provide a geographic balance for WVU.
3. BYU because of it's television market (#34), it's name recognition; and it adds a second (cozy eh?) religiously oriented private to balance Baylor.
4. Colorado State because of it's top twenty television market (#17) and to geographically balance the western side of the Big XII with BYU as Cincy will balance the east. The new 41,000 seat stadium doesn't hurt either.

Memphis is a longer shot with a lower television market of 50 and a slightly awkward geographic location. Additionally, GaSt fan Panama noted today that every single P5 school is a USNWR Tier 1 institution. Memphis would be the first non Tier 1. I am not, however, sure whether that is important to the the Big XII or not.

UConn has been mentioned, but it is too far of a geographic outllier, and is located in (NE US) a place where football is either stagnant or actually losing popularity. Not much of a chance for them. IMO.

If the BigXII takes only two, I think it more likely that Houston and Cincy are the ones chosen because of WVU and UT promoting Houston.
Either way I think the AAC only loses two, in which case the AAC might not backfill at all.

Television DMA source:
https://www.tvb.org/Portals/0/media/file...-ranks.pdf

USNWR source:
https://www.usnewsuniversitydirectory.co...ersities/#

Seriously Colorado St? Almost every AAC team would be taken before them. People throw out their name without realizing how terrible an expansion candidate they are. You always hear the same talking points "Brand new stadium" or "Denver TV market" without hearing the whole truth like "tiny new stadium" and "zero TV interest". I think football only Boise is far more likely than them and they aren't likely.

Tiny Stadium??? 42-45 k is tiny? No.
It is not about current TV interest either. It is about rights to a market and the subsequent impact that has on media negotiations.
Additionally CSU is a large Tier 1 university that couod help mitigate travel if BYU is added.
And yes, I think CoSt is picked only if BYU is added.