Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

(06-15-2016 02:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

1.4 points. Not percent.

Also, anyone who believes Trump is sitting at 33% right now is a complete moron.

(06-15-2016 02:17 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

1.4 points. Not percent.

Ummmm...dude. It's the same thing when dealing with a 100 point scale.

(06-15-2016 02:31 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:17 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

1.4 points. Not percent.

Ummmm...dude. It's the same thing when dealing with a 100 point scale.

so, now points = percent....

didn't know this was baseball where statistic are actually relevant....

hell, maybe the baseketball weirdos should toss midgets into the velcro bulls arse....

edit: maybe you could shite that monkey out with zero friction upon re-entry

(06-15-2016 02:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

An object in motion continues in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.
-- the law of inertia

for the hearing impaired ...
because reuters/ipsos oversamples democrats & undersamples independents ...
becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy ...
fits the narrative at the moment ...
ie Trump's an incorrigible racist ...
watch his numbers drop ...
voila ...
however, even unreliable polls can often detect significant trends in data ...
what to look out for...
don't care where you are ...
where are you going ...

GO WITH THE FLOW

(06-15-2016 02:57 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

An object in motion continues in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.
-- the law of inertia

for the hearing impaired ...
because reuters/ipsos oversamples democrats & undersamples independents ...
becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy ...
fits the narrative at the moment ...
ie Trump's an incorrigible racist ...
watch his numbers drop ...
voila ...
however, even unreliable polls can often detect significant trends in data ...
what to look out for...
don't care where you are ...
where are you going ...

GO WITH THE FLOW

....just like aqua....

it's all they know....

yet they are 'trained'....

unless acted upon....

it's really simple 'stuffin's'

(06-15-2016 02:55 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:31 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:17 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

1.4 points. Not percent.

Ummmm...dude. It's the same thing when dealing with a 100 point scale.

so, now points = percent....

Y
E
S

Are you guys for ******* real?

(06-15-2016 02:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

To compare the 1.4% change with 3.5% margin of error is apples to oranges. The margin of error applies only to the most recent poll and has absolutely nothing to do with comparing two sequential polls.

(06-15-2016 04:08 PM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

To compare the 1.4% change with 3.5% margin of error is apples to oranges. The margin of error applies only to the most recent poll and has absolutely nothing to do with comparing two sequential polls.

Of course...but most if not all polls have a MOE somewhere similar. And it stands to reason that an identical poll taken week to week...or whatever it is...with the same methodology would have a MOE nearly identical. Regardless, a 1.4 point swing is meaningless...and I think you know that.

(06-15-2016 04:18 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 04:08 PM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

Quote:The poll, conducted from Friday to Tuesday, showed Clinton with an 11.6-point lead - 44.6 percent to 33.0 percent - over Trump, down from the 13-point lead she had in the five days that ended Saturday.

Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll

That's it...1.4%! That's well within the 3.5% margin of error. Therefore, it means absolutely nothing.

To compare the 1.4% change with 3.5% margin of error is apples to oranges. The margin of error applies only to the most recent poll and has absolutely nothing to do with comparing two sequential polls.

Of course...but most if not all polls have a MOE somewhere similar. And it stands to reason that an identical poll taken week to week...or whatever it is...with the same methodology would have a MOE nearly identical. Regardless, a 1.4 point swing is meaningless...and I think you know that.

The margin of error is a simple matter of sample size, assuming a truly random sample. If your (random) sample size is roughly 1100, then you'll end up with the 3.5%.

To compare separate polls, you don't consider margin of error. It is simply a gain of 1.4%. Now you may argue that a 1.4% change is meaningless but I'd argue that a 1.4% change is a 1.4% change. Nothing more, nothing less. I leave it to the spinmeisters to turn to it into more than it is....and I think you know that.

And even though it has been 41 years since I last taught Statistical Sampling, I'm pretty sure the definitions haven't changed.

(06-15-2016 02:00 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 01:43 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 01:37 PM)green Wrote:  http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/reuters-...id/733891/

Reuters Poll: Trump's Numbers Rising After Orlando Shooting
-- newsmax

mind you ...
this poll oversamples democrats & undersamples independents ...

EXPLAIN IN DUE TIME

Trump will go up to within 5 pts of HRC by tomorrow's poll, then sink back to minus 10 as Trump continues to offend just about everyone but his core supporters.

Kind of like how you thought Wal-Marts stock would tank because Target's did?

Mmkay. Lets see what the polls show next week.

(06-15-2016 05:21 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:00 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 01:43 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 01:37 PM)green Wrote:  http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/reuters-...id/733891/

Reuters Poll: Trump's Numbers Rising After Orlando Shooting
-- newsmax

mind you ...
this poll oversamples democrats & undersamples independents ...

EXPLAIN IN DUE TIME

Trump will go up to within 5 pts of HRC by tomorrow's poll, then sink back to minus 10 as Trump continues to offend just about everyone but his core supporters.

Kind of like how you thought Wal-Marts stock would tank because Target's did?

Mmkay. Lets see what the polls show next week.

Walmart's stock is up significantly this year.

Targets stock looks like it fell off of the side of a South American Tepuis.

(06-15-2016 07:52 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 05:21 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:00 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 01:43 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 01:37 PM)green Wrote:  http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/reuters-...id/733891/

Reuters Poll: Trump's Numbers Rising After Orlando Shooting
-- newsmax

mind you ...
this poll oversamples democrats & undersamples independents ...

EXPLAIN IN DUE TIME

Trump will go up to within 5 pts of HRC by tomorrow's poll, then sink back to minus 10 as Trump continues to offend just about everyone but his core supporters.

Kind of like how you thought Wal-Marts stock would tank because Target's did?

Mmkay. Lets see what the polls show next week.

Walmart's stock is up significantly this year.

Targets stock looks like it fell off of the side of a South American Tepuis.

Mmkay. You're welcome to start a thread to discuss Wal Marts relative stock price to Target. We're talking about National Polls for President.

What we have here is a math nerds pissing contest!

(06-15-2016 07:57 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 07:52 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 05:21 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:00 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 01:43 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Trump will go up to within 5 pts of HRC by tomorrow's poll, then sink back to minus 10 as Trump continues to offend just about everyone but his core supporters.

Kind of like how you thought Wal-Marts stock would tank because Target's did?

Mmkay. Lets see what the polls show next week.

Walmart's stock is up significantly this year.

Targets stock looks like it fell off of the side of a South American Tepuis.

Mmkay. You're welcome to start a thread to discuss Wal Marts relative stock price to Target. We're talking about National Polls for President.

ok, about that Bloomberg poll. Its not the same poll that used data metrics collected from March, is it?

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/201...tial-poll/

Did you know in June, Michael Dukakis was leading George H. W. Bush by an aggregate of double digits, 17 percent, and Bush didn't close the gap to single digits until August?

Clinton has a low point and a slow point for a press that hates him to attack him. She finally polished Sanders off and some Sanders people are going to her, she got endorsed by Elizabeth Warren and President Fuccboi Cryalot.

But from March, Hillary Clinton lost a net 6 points to Trump in that Bloomberg poll. Trump has 70 negative nationally in a poll? He used to be in the 80s last summer. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is also at 55 unfavorability, up almost 100 percent since when she first announced in August.

One left wing political strategist, David "Mudcat" Saunders said this:

http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/27/democr...baby-seal/

"Quit getting hung up on the ******* unfavorables. So Trump has unfavorables in the 60s and 70s, who cares? It doesn't mean a thing, He's got decades of material to slam Hillary Clinton with. I don't know if Trump can lower his unfavorability ratings but I know he can drive Hillary Clinton's unfavorables into the 80s."

I wonder how the polls will do when people learn that the Obama administration and Hillary support ISIS in 2012.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidenti...-for-isis/

(06-15-2016 08:06 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  I wonder how the polls will do when people learn that the Obama administration and Hillary support ISIS in 2012.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidenti...-for-isis/

It's from Breitbart....moving on

We'll see.

(06-15-2016 08:09 PM)DogPoundNorth Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 08:06 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  I wonder how the polls will do when people learn that the Obama administration and Hillary support ISIS in 2012.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidenti...-for-isis/

It's from Breitbart....moving on

The email isnt.