(06-15-2016 06:29 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:01 AM)shiftyeagle Wrote:  People really didn't think Trump was going to win, did they?

He was probably the only candidate the Republicans could've nominated that would lose to this remarkably corrupt, morally devoid, incompetent idiot. She going to win by double-digits easily.

Costa Rica is sounding better and better.

(06-15-2016 02:01 AM)shiftyeagle Wrote:  People really didn't think Trump was going to win, did they?

He was probably the only candidate the Republicans could've nominated that would lose to this remarkably corrupt, morally devoid, incompetent idiot. She going to win by double-digits easily.

barring the unforeseen, I predict DJT will win ...
this go around ...
election fundamentals favor the opposition party ...

HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM APPLES

Keep in mind that Obama was losing to McCain by an RCP average of 3 points in September of '08.

(06-15-2016 11:45 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Keep in mind that Obama was losing to McCain by an RCP average of 3 points in September of '08.

#ubetcha #hockeymom

(06-15-2016 11:45 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Keep in mind that Obama was losing to McCain by an RCP average of 3 points in September of '08.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup...-2008.aspx

yes ...
immediately after the republican convention ...
McCain's lead was fleeting though ...
that's if you believe the polls ...
but '08 was never in doubt ...

DONKEY KONG

Trump and his supporters need to be concerned much less about these early summer national polls and much more about gaining / maintaining GOP establishment endorsements, big money donors, and large scale campaign organization. Each of these are on shaky ground.

(06-14-2016 09:05 PM)spankadelphia Wrote:  I think we all expect the polls to be manipulated in this election. There's some organizations that have a greater incentive to cheerlead Hillary than be accurate. Bloomberg, NBC, and maybe WSJ fall into this category. PPP oversamples democrats but I think tries to be accurate. Rasmussen is the most right leaning, but its also one of the most accurate. In a straight head to head, they have Clinton in the lead by 1 to 3 points, and haven't polled since the pulse shooting. In this sample, about 20% is undecided.

There is obvious fuckery afoot regarding Gary Johnson. Why include him in the poll and not the far more consequential Green party? You know why. They're trying to force a meme where he takes Trump votes, when in fact people who don't know who he is are choosing the "other guy" on surveys. An operation to mess Johnson up and promote Jill Stein is worthwhile. Edit: Need some real dirt of Johnson.

Jill Stein is basically Bernie. I'm still hoping Don picks a fight with her and makes her famous.

NBC/WSJ: A- Rating, Lean D, 74% of races called correctly
PPP: B+ Rating, Lean R, 82% of races called correctly
Rasmussen: C+ rating, lean significantly R, 79% of races called correctly
Qunnipiac: A- rating, lean R, 87% of races called correctly
Bloomberg N/R

Looks to me like SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac, and Marist College are the best ones to look at.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Don't forget this poll was likely taken right after Hilldawgs loving, caring, calm teleprompter speech She gave about Trump before the Orlando mess. The first speech She made that wasn't shrill, loud and not sounding like B.S.. She of course will get smacked down in the debates.

This might be fun to watch play out...

Don't know of this site but the pics are interesting.

http://downstreampolitics.com/2016/06/15...ite-house/

(06-15-2016 12:14 PM)boroeagle2 Wrote:  

(06-14-2016 09:05 PM)spankadelphia Wrote:  I think we all expect the polls to be manipulated in this election. There's some organizations that have a greater incentive to cheerlead Hillary than be accurate. Bloomberg, NBC, and maybe WSJ fall into this category. PPP oversamples democrats but I think tries to be accurate. Rasmussen is the most right leaning, but its also one of the most accurate. In a straight head to head, they have Clinton in the lead by 1 to 3 points, and haven't polled since the pulse shooting. In this sample, about 20% is undecided.

There is obvious fuckery afoot regarding Gary Johnson. Why include him in the poll and not the far more consequential Green party? You know why. They're trying to force a meme where he takes Trump votes, when in fact people who don't know who he is are choosing the "other guy" on surveys. An operation to mess Johnson up and promote Jill Stein is worthwhile. Edit: Need some real dirt of Johnson.

Jill Stein is basically Bernie. I'm still hoping Don picks a fight with her and makes her famous.

NBC/WSJ: A- Rating, Lean D, 74% of races called correctly
PPP: B+ Rating, Lean R, 82% of races called correctly
Rasmussen: C+ rating, lean significantly R, 79% of races called correctly
Qunnipiac: A- rating, lean R, 87% of races called correctly
Bloomberg N/R

Looks to me like SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac, and Marist College are the best ones to look at.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Is that correct? I've always heard they lean D.

(06-15-2016 12:21 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Don't forget this poll was likely taken right after Hilldawgs loving, caring, calm teleprompter speech She gave about Trump before the Orlando mess. The first speech She made that wasn't shrill, loud and not sounding like B.S.. She of course will get smacked down in the debates.

It was taken on June 10th-13th.

And Hillary will do just fine in the debates...if Donald even has the stones to show up.

(06-15-2016 12:24 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 12:14 PM)boroeagle2 Wrote:  

(06-14-2016 09:05 PM)spankadelphia Wrote:  I think we all expect the polls to be manipulated in this election. There's some organizations that have a greater incentive to cheerlead Hillary than be accurate. Bloomberg, NBC, and maybe WSJ fall into this category. PPP oversamples democrats but I think tries to be accurate. Rasmussen is the most right leaning, but its also one of the most accurate. In a straight head to head, they have Clinton in the lead by 1 to 3 points, and haven't polled since the pulse shooting. In this sample, about 20% is undecided.

There is obvious fuckery afoot regarding Gary Johnson. Why include him in the poll and not the far more consequential Green party? You know why. They're trying to force a meme where he takes Trump votes, when in fact people who don't know who he is are choosing the "other guy" on surveys. An operation to mess Johnson up and promote Jill Stein is worthwhile. Edit: Need some real dirt of Johnson.

Jill Stein is basically Bernie. I'm still hoping Don picks a fight with her and makes her famous.

NBC/WSJ: A- Rating, Lean D, 74% of races called correctly
PPP: B+ Rating, Lean R, 82% of races called correctly
Rasmussen: C+ rating, lean significantly R, 79% of races called correctly
Qunnipiac: A- rating, lean R, 87% of races called correctly
Bloomberg N/R

Looks to me like SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac, and Marist College are the best ones to look at.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Is that correct? I've always heard they lean D.

PublicPolicyPolling is an accurate albeit democrat firm ...

BIG D

(06-15-2016 12:31 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 12:24 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 12:14 PM)boroeagle2 Wrote:  

(06-14-2016 09:05 PM)spankadelphia Wrote:  I think we all expect the polls to be manipulated in this election. There's some organizations that have a greater incentive to cheerlead Hillary than be accurate. Bloomberg, NBC, and maybe WSJ fall into this category. PPP oversamples democrats but I think tries to be accurate. Rasmussen is the most right leaning, but its also one of the most accurate. In a straight head to head, they have Clinton in the lead by 1 to 3 points, and haven't polled since the pulse shooting. In this sample, about 20% is undecided.

There is obvious fuckery afoot regarding Gary Johnson. Why include him in the poll and not the far more consequential Green party? You know why. They're trying to force a meme where he takes Trump votes, when in fact people who don't know who he is are choosing the "other guy" on surveys. An operation to mess Johnson up and promote Jill Stein is worthwhile. Edit: Need some real dirt of Johnson.

Jill Stein is basically Bernie. I'm still hoping Don picks a fight with her and makes her famous.

NBC/WSJ: A- Rating, Lean D, 74% of races called correctly
PPP: B+ Rating, Lean R, 82% of races called correctly
Rasmussen: C+ rating, lean significantly R, 79% of races called correctly
Qunnipiac: A- rating, lean R, 87% of races called correctly
Bloomberg N/R

Looks to me like SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac, and Marist College are the best ones to look at.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Is that correct? I've always heard they lean D.

PublicPolicyPolling is an accurate albeit democrat firm ...

BIG D

Well the 538 crew extensively analyzed these things and came up with a very slight R lean in their results, could be that they are ideologically left, but their polling leans slightly right because they overcompensate to try and not be biased left? I notice FoxNews is listed as lean D, so that could be for the same reason. I believe they have definitions/methodology of their ratings on the link I shared, so if someone wants to dig deeper you may find the explanation.

(06-15-2016 12:40 PM)boroeagle2 Wrote:  Well the 538 crew extensively analyzed these things and came up with a very slight R lean in their results, could be that they are ideologically left, but their polling leans slightly right because they overcompensate to try and not be biased left?

PPP’s surveys came under sharp attack from many conservatives during the campaign because it does polling for Democratic candidates and organizations on the left side of the political spectrum, such as Daily Kos. But the firm’s results were extremely accurate.
-- latimes 11/8/12

NONPARTISAN PARTISAN

(06-15-2016 12:40 PM)boroeagle2 Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 12:31 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 12:24 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 12:14 PM)boroeagle2 Wrote:  

(06-14-2016 09:05 PM)spankadelphia Wrote:  I think we all expect the polls to be manipulated in this election. There's some organizations that have a greater incentive to cheerlead Hillary than be accurate. Bloomberg, NBC, and maybe WSJ fall into this category. PPP oversamples democrats but I think tries to be accurate. Rasmussen is the most right leaning, but its also one of the most accurate. In a straight head to head, they have Clinton in the lead by 1 to 3 points, and haven't polled since the pulse shooting. In this sample, about 20% is undecided.

There is obvious fuckery afoot regarding Gary Johnson. Why include him in the poll and not the far more consequential Green party? You know why. They're trying to force a meme where he takes Trump votes, when in fact people who don't know who he is are choosing the "other guy" on surveys. An operation to mess Johnson up and promote Jill Stein is worthwhile. Edit: Need some real dirt of Johnson.

Jill Stein is basically Bernie. I'm still hoping Don picks a fight with her and makes her famous.

NBC/WSJ: A- Rating, Lean D, 74% of races called correctly
PPP: B+ Rating, Lean R, 82% of races called correctly
Rasmussen: C+ rating, lean significantly R, 79% of races called correctly
Qunnipiac: A- rating, lean R, 87% of races called correctly
Bloomberg N/R

Looks to me like SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac, and Marist College are the best ones to look at.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Is that correct? I've always heard they lean D.

PublicPolicyPolling is an accurate albeit democrat firm ...

BIG D

Well the 538 crew extensively analyzed these things and came up with a very slight R lean in their results, could be that they are ideologically left, but their polling leans slightly right because they overcompensate to try and not be biased left? I notice FoxNews is listed as lean D, so that could be for the same reason. I believe they have definitions/methodology of their ratings on the link I shared, so if someone wants to dig deeper you may find the explanation.

No need. I trust the 538 folks a lot more than random posters on here who always seem to discount any poll from PPP which shows a democrat or liberal position in the lead on something.

(06-15-2016 12:47 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I trust the 538 folks

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_p...wrong.html

The election guru Nate Silver said Trump had no shot. Where did he go wrong?
-- slate

TRUST YOUR GUT

(06-15-2016 12:24 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 12:14 PM)boroeagle2 Wrote:  

(06-14-2016 09:05 PM)spankadelphia Wrote:  I think we all expect the polls to be manipulated in this election. There's some organizations that have a greater incentive to cheerlead Hillary than be accurate. Bloomberg, NBC, and maybe WSJ fall into this category. PPP oversamples democrats but I think tries to be accurate. Rasmussen is the most right leaning, but its also one of the most accurate. In a straight head to head, they have Clinton in the lead by 1 to 3 points, and haven't polled since the pulse shooting. In this sample, about 20% is undecided.

There is obvious fuckery afoot regarding Gary Johnson. Why include him in the poll and not the far more consequential Green party? You know why. They're trying to force a meme where he takes Trump votes, when in fact people who don't know who he is are choosing the "other guy" on surveys. An operation to mess Johnson up and promote Jill Stein is worthwhile. Edit: Need some real dirt of Johnson.

Jill Stein is basically Bernie. I'm still hoping Don picks a fight with her and makes her famous.

NBC/WSJ: A- Rating, Lean D, 74% of races called correctly
PPP: B+ Rating, Lean R, 82% of races called correctly
Rasmussen: C+ rating, lean significantly R, 79% of races called correctly
Qunnipiac: A- rating, lean R, 87% of races called correctly
Bloomberg N/R

Looks to me like SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac, and Marist College are the best ones to look at.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Is that correct? I've always heard they lean D.

PPP is a Democratic Pollster. They don't do push polls. It doesn't really matter which party a pollster works with as long as they do honest polling.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/reuters-...id/733891/

Reuters Poll: Trump's Numbers Rising After Orlando Shooting
-- newsmax

mind you ...
this poll oversamples democrats & undersamples independents ...

EXPLAIN IN DUE TIME

(06-15-2016 01:37 PM)green Wrote:  http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/reuters-...id/733891/

Reuters Poll: Trump's Numbers Rising After Orlando Shooting
-- newsmax

mind you ...
this poll oversamples democrats & undersamples independents ...

EXPLAIN IN DUE TIME

Trump will go up to within 5 pts of HRC by tomorrow's poll, then sink back to minus 10 as Trump continues to offend just about everyone but his core supporters.

(06-15-2016 01:43 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 01:37 PM)green Wrote:  http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/reuters-...id/733891/

Reuters Poll: Trump's Numbers Rising After Orlando Shooting
-- newsmax

mind you ...
this poll oversamples democrats & undersamples independents ...

EXPLAIN IN DUE TIME

Trump will go up to within 5 pts of HRC by tomorrow's poll, then sink back to minus 10 as Trump continues to offend just about everyone but his core supporters.

Kind of like how you thought Wal-Marts stock would tank because Target's did?