(05-02-2016 11:52 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 11:44 AM)Paul M Wrote:  They decide in the "backroom" whether to give it... and that's what will be done no matter who it is, given... to the guy with the most votes, the guy who they feel has a better chance of winning the general, or the winner of a coin flip.

Nothing says the guy with the most votes gets it handed to him with no other considerations allowed at all.

You are conveniently ignoring something very important.

If you give the nomination to the man who does not comport with the popular vote in any way, shape, or form, you create a candidate with a more narrow base of support.

Cruz can only come away from a convention as the usurper. He will not have popular support, sorry.

Cruz is a regional candidate.

Not ignoring that at all. Trump has a narrow base of support and many wont vote for him either. Whether they thought it was rigged or the product of some backroom deal or on the up and up, they will not, no way, no how, vote for him.

Even with the hit, Cruz or Kasich do better in the general than Trump.

(05-02-2016 12:11 PM)Paul M Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 11:52 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 11:44 AM)Paul M Wrote:  They decide in the "backroom" whether to give it... and that's what will be done no matter who it is, given... to the guy with the most votes, the guy who they feel has a better chance of winning the general, or the winner of a coin flip.

Nothing says the guy with the most votes gets it handed to him with no other considerations allowed at all.

You are conveniently ignoring something very important.

If you give the nomination to the man who does not comport with the popular vote in any way, shape, or form, you create a candidate with a more narrow base of support.

Cruz can only come away from a convention as the usurper. He will not have popular support, sorry.

Cruz is a regional candidate.

Not ignoring that at all. Trump has a narrow base of support and many wont vote for him either. Whether they thought it was rigged or the product of some backroom deal or on the up and up, they will not, no way, no how, vote for him.

Even with the hit, Cruz or Kasich do better in the general than Trump.

Paul, that's called delusion. Trump has over 3 million more votes than does Cruz.

This is really about self proclaimed conservatives are unhappy that they didn't get their way and they will do or say anything. But, don't take my word for it, ask Cruz' new VP choice. She said it.

Polling says my delusion is reality.

It's Trump's folk who haven't gotten their way. And it's silly. He probably gets the nomination. It hasn't come to a conclusion yet but they want it just given out to him early.

I still hold out hope it isn't Trump. I pray delegates prefer taking a chance on winning. Odds are I have to hate myself the day after the election. And hope he feels at least some obligation to the people that voted for him if he wins.

(05-02-2016 12:23 PM)Paul M Wrote:  Polling says my delusion is reality.

It's Trump's folk who haven't gotten their way. And it's silly. He probably gets the nomination. It hasn't come to a conclusion yet but they want it just given out to him early.

I still hold out hope it isn't Trump. I pray delegates prefer taking a chance on winning. Odds are I have to hate myself the day after the election. And hope he feels at least some obligation to the people that voted for him if he wins.

Give?

He's going to win more votes than any Republican primary candidate in history.

It really is Berlin in 1945 for the anti-Trump crowd.

(05-02-2016 12:33 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 12:23 PM)Paul M Wrote:  Polling says my delusion is reality.

It's Trump's folk who haven't gotten their way. And it's silly. He probably gets the nomination. It hasn't come to a conclusion yet but they want it just given out to him early.

I still hold out hope it isn't Trump. I pray delegates prefer taking a chance on winning. Odds are I have to hate myself the day after the election. And hope he feels at least some obligation to the people that voted for him if he wins.

Give?

He's going to win more votes than any Republican primary candidate in history.

It really is Berlin in 1945 for the anti-Trump crowd.

If that doesn't equate to ≥1237, no one cares.

I'll repost this:

(04-29-2016 08:03 PM)Paul M Wrote:  

"But notice, too, that the overall vote totals have increased over time. That's in part a function of the increased role of primaries in the nomination process, and in part a function of America's growing population. (America is more than twice the size now that it was in 1950.)

More votes than any Rep prim candidate in history? Also pretty much ties with lowest percent of the vote.

(05-02-2016 12:43 PM)Paul M Wrote:  More votes than any Rep prim candidate in history? Also pretty much ties with lowest percent of the vote.

So somebody who got even less is the right man for the job?



Bless your heart!

(05-02-2016 12:38 PM)Paul M Wrote:  I'll repost this:

(04-29-2016 08:03 PM)Paul M Wrote:  

"But notice, too, that the overall vote totals have increased over time. That's in part a function of the increased role of primaries in the nomination process, and in part a function of America's growing population. (America is more than twice the size now that it was in 1950.)

Interestingly, primary season for 2016 isn't even finished yet and the number of voters participating on the GOP side shattered the previous record. While obviously you have population trends from 1950 until today, you also have a significantly higher participation rate.

(05-02-2016 12:23 PM)Paul M Wrote:  Polling says my delusion is reality.

It's Trump's folk who haven't gotten their way. And it's silly. He probably gets the nomination. It hasn't come to a conclusion yet but they want it just given out to him early.

I still hold out hope it isn't Trump. I pray delegates prefer taking a chance on winning. Odds are I have to hate myself the day after the election. And hope he feels at least some obligation to the people that voted for him if he wins.

Polling also says that the easiest way to guarantee the Dems win the WH is to toss Hillary aside and make Sanders the nominee. Notice that your polling shows Kasich beating Hillary; however, Kasich loses to Sanders. In reality, do you REALLY think that Sanders is the single most popular candidate out of all the Dems and GOP'ers? Because if polling today for the general in November was real, all I would do if I was in charge of the Dems would be to ensure Sanders gets the nod because logic would dictate that the GOP pushes Kasich to the front of the pack at the convention given the polling numbers out there today...

(05-02-2016 12:23 PM)Paul M Wrote:  Polling says my delusion is reality.

It's Trump's folk who haven't gotten their way. And it's silly. He probably gets the nomination. It hasn't come to a conclusion yet but they want it just given out to him early.

I still hold out hope it isn't Trump. I pray delegates prefer taking a chance on winning. Odds are I have to hate myself the day after the election. And hope he feels at least some obligation to the people that voted for him if he wins.

I'm still hoping for some Indiana common sense followed by some in California (the flakes there are mostly Democrats).

Everyone is so wrapped up in the technical aspects that they continue to ignore the overarching issue.

These Republican voters...and there are a lot....are so mad at their own party's leadership that they are willingly risking the election of Hillary Clinton (or Trump) because they think cleaning up their own party is more important.

Think about that for a minute. You have to be pretty damn mad to risk that.

The Republican Party IS going to have to change....or die. And its not the change that the Republican establishment wants.

Its not more open-ended trade deals. Its not amnesty. Its not becoming UK Tory light. Its not becoming more politically correct. Its not putting corporations first. Its not more surveillance. Its not cowtowing to more demographic slivers. Its not calling over a 3rd of their party's voters dumb or fascist. Its not saying something and never doing it.....and in the end...it ain't bathroom etiquette either.

The voters are throwing a grenade to show that they own the party....not the donors...not the lobbyists. They'll either make their point...or they won't. They'll either continue to identify with the party...or they won't.

(05-02-2016 12:50 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 12:23 PM)Paul M Wrote:  Polling says my delusion is reality.

It's Trump's folk who haven't gotten their way. And it's silly. He probably gets the nomination. It hasn't come to a conclusion yet but they want it just given out to him early.

I still hold out hope it isn't Trump. I pray delegates prefer taking a chance on winning. Odds are I have to hate myself the day after the election. And hope he feels at least some obligation to the people that voted for him if he wins.

Polling also says that the easiest way to guarantee the Dems win the WH is to toss Hillary aside and make Sanders the nominee. Notice that your polling shows Kasich beating Hillary; however, Kasich loses to Sanders. In reality, do you REALLY think that Sanders is the single most popular candidate out of all the Dems and GOP'ers? Because if polling today for the general in November was real, all I would do if I was in charge of the Dems would be to ensure Sanders gets the nod because logic would dictate that the GOP pushes Kasich to the front of the pack at the convention given the polling numbers out there today...

Every indication except in delusional Donald's mind (and a few progressives pondering their echo bubble) is that Cruz does better than Trump.

(05-02-2016 11:38 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 11:35 AM)Paul M Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 11:25 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 10:47 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(05-01-2016 05:29 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  He's been mathematically eliminated.

It's entirely possible and even probable that ALL the candidates will be 'mathematically eliminated'. Which only means that nobody has enough delegates to win the nomination on a first ballot... which by definition means a 'contested' (nasty) convention.

While I certainly am no fan of Trump, it seems quite obvious (to both parties) that the 'anti' vote is VERY strong this year.

But it begs the question, to what end?

Cruz cannot go to a contested convention and come away with sweeping support. He can only come away as the back room candidate.

When you weigh that against the fact his opponent will most likely be the man who garnered more votes than any Republican primary candidate in history you see that Cruz is doomed.

If Trump doesn't win it before the convention and gets it there, it will be the result of the same "backroom".

It won't, and for one single reason, one man received about 4 million more votes than did the other one.

Cruz can only come away as the back room deal candidate, the one who finished a very distant second.

From a popular perception stance he has already lost.

you're missing something very important...

The entire purpose of meeting the threshold is to demonstrate that the 'yea' for your candidate is greater than the sum of the 'nay' against him... and in this case (or any case where nobody reaches the threshold) that isn't the case.

If Trump reaches the threshold, then it wouldn't matter how delegates (or voters) for Kasich or Rubio or Fiorina or anyone else would have voted if their preferred candidate had not been in the race... but if he doesn't, then they get another chance to vote... and that is what a 'brokered' convention is all about.

The bottom line is that these were all known to Trump and his people from day one... and it should have been obvious from day one that he wasn't the front-runner of the party establishment and obvious for many months that he was going to struggle to get to the threshold where it didn't matter...

and to be honest, I see all of this bellyaching by him (especially) as being destructive and childish rather than constructive. I understand his supporters want to suspend disbelief and that is 'ok', but for a candidate to act like he doesn't know how the program works is worse than childish. It's actually an admission of failure but blaming others rather than taking responsibility for it. Hardly a way to win friends and influence people.

Trump should be arguing that in the event that he doesn't get to the number, that he is confident that people will see that his candidacy is strong and can defeat Hillary and he will win on the second ballot... but what he seems to be admitting is that it isn't.

but going back to square one, the idea that if you fail to garner 51% of the popular vote that there is a 'run off' among the top two vote getters, regardless of how big the gap is not unique to this election.

(05-02-2016 12:33 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 12:23 PM)Paul M Wrote:  Polling says my delusion is reality.

It's Trump's folk who haven't gotten their way. And it's silly. He probably gets the nomination. It hasn't come to a conclusion yet but they want it just given out to him early.

I still hold out hope it isn't Trump. I pray delegates prefer taking a chance on winning. Odds are I have to hate myself the day after the election. And hope he feels at least some obligation to the people that voted for him if he wins.

Give?

He's going to win more votes than any Republican primary candidate in history.

It really is Berlin in 1945 for the anti-Trump crowd.

You meant 1933, right? I can only say if tramp is elected…



You'll be sorrrryyyyy.

Primary turnout is less than 20% of eligible Republicans. General election turnout is usually close to 60% of ALL eligible voters. To suggest that Trump will necessarily do better than a given candidate because he got the most prumary votes simply isn't logical.

(05-02-2016 01:56 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 11:38 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 11:35 AM)Paul M Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 11:25 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 10:47 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  It's entirely possible and even probable that ALL the candidates will be 'mathematically eliminated'. Which only means that nobody has enough delegates to win the nomination on a first ballot... which by definition means a 'contested' (nasty) convention.

While I certainly am no fan of Trump, it seems quite obvious (to both parties) that the 'anti' vote is VERY strong this year.

But it begs the question, to what end?

Cruz cannot go to a contested convention and come away with sweeping support. He can only come away as the back room candidate.

When you weigh that against the fact his opponent will most likely be the man who garnered more votes than any Republican primary candidate in history you see that Cruz is doomed.

If Trump doesn't win it before the convention and gets it there, it will be the result of the same "backroom".

It won't, and for one single reason, one man received about 4 million more votes than did the other one.

Cruz can only come away as the back room deal candidate, the one who finished a very distant second.

From a popular perception stance he has already lost.

you're missing something very important...

The entire purpose of meeting the threshold is to demonstrate that the 'yea' for your candidate is greater than the sum of the 'nay' against him... and in this case (or any case where nobody reaches the threshold) that isn't the case.

If Trump reaches the threshold, then it wouldn't matter how delegates (or voters) for Kasich or Rubio or Fiorina or anyone else would have voted if their preferred candidate had not been in the race... but if he doesn't, then they get another chance to vote... and that is what a 'brokered' convention is all about.

The bottom line is that these were all known to Trump and his people from day one... and it should have been obvious from day one that he wasn't the front-runner of the party establishment and obvious for many months that he was going to struggle to get to the threshold where it didn't matter...

and to be honest, I see all of this bellyaching by him (especially) as being destructive and childish rather than constructive. I understand his supporters want to suspend disbelief and that is 'ok', but for a candidate to act like he doesn't know how the program works is worse than childish. It's actually an admission of failure but blaming others rather than taking responsibility for it. Hardly a way to win friends and influence people.

Trump should be arguing that in the event that he doesn't get to the number, that he is confident that people will see that his candidacy is strong and can defeat Hillary and he will win on the second ballot... but what he seems to be admitting is that it isn't.

but going back to square one, the idea that if you fail to garner 51% of the popular vote that there is a 'run off' among the top two vote getters, regardless of how big the gap is not unique to this election.

That makes sense in a general way. If you have a person who was comitted to Rubio and it gets to a 2nd ballot....he gets to revote.

What is not cool is offering a Trump delegate a new car, or a lobster dinner, or a bridge to nowhere, or an ambassadorship to Fiji.

What's not cool is trying to get your delegates selected to masquerade as Trump delegates in a state you didn't win any delegates in.

You can do it. But do not expect voters to applaud you, not see it as corrupt, and vote for you later.