Bill Connelly projects us 6th for 2016 (likely 7-5). I have to say I can't disagree with his argument. I literally have no idea what we are going to get with this squad next year.

Link

(04-29-2016 12:10 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Bill Connelly projects us 6th for 2016 (likely 7-5). I have to say I can't disagree with his argument. I literally have no idea what we are going to get with this squad next year.

Link

Yea, can't really disagree with much here either.

At least the schedule is favorable.

Jesus, its come to that...

Sounds reasonable to me, but is it bad enough to lead to an early retirement for CTT?

I would think with the schedule and the harder games at home...we should be looking at 9-3...

If 7-5 comes to pass it is time for TT to go bye, bye.

The schedule is very favorable such that 7-5 would be a major disappointment.

Unless the defense really steps up 7-5 with a fairly empty Nippert sounds about right.

Great and fair piece. I won't even begin to guess how this season will turn out. Some great younger talent, but who knows if TT and Co. can translate that into wins.

(04-29-2016 01:19 PM)Banter Wrote:  Unless the defense really steps up 7-5 with a fairly empty Nippert sounds about right.

Maybe we should do like we used to do with the basketball season tickets.

In order to buy FCC season tickets, you have to buy UC football season tickets!

(Ducks to avoid projectiles)

(04-29-2016 01:25 PM)AeroCat Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 01:19 PM)Banter Wrote:  Unless the defense really steps up 7-5 with a fairly empty Nippert sounds about right.

Maybe we should do like we used to do with the basketball season tickets.

In order to buy FCC season tickets, you have to buy UC football season tickets!

(Ducks to avoid projectiles)

I will seriously cry if we ever get to that point again.

Good point early on turnover luck. I realized UC was unlucky on turnovers, didn't realize just how unlucky.

He also makes the point that over a 4 game stretch UC actually played top 25 caliber football (that included the road loss to Houston which was an incredibly rare kind of loss as UC outgained Houston 8.5 to 4.9, on a per-play basis).

Good lord the end of the season was an abomination though.

Quote:You can see whatever you want to see with UC this year, and that's before we get to talking about an amazing schedule. Cincy has a 92 percent chance of beating UT-Martin in the opener and has an 82 percent chance of beating Miami (Ohio). The other 10 games are all between 38 and 61 percent.

Ten tossups! For a Tommy Tuberville team! That is an invitation to insanity. If the potential weaknesses are a little less weak than we think, then the Bearcats could legitimately go 10-2 or 11-1 this year. But if the passing game never takes and the front seven is still too leaky, 3-9 is on the table.

This might be the biggest wildcard team that a wildcard extraordinaire has ever had. I have no idea what is going to happen, and I cannot wait to find out.

Bill's the best. Pretty great breakdown and can't really disagree with anything.

It wasn't just luck. It was poor special teams play and offensive play calling that was more likely to lead to interceptions (plus the unlucky fumbles).

(04-29-2016 02:15 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  It wasn't just luck. It was poor special teams play and offensive play calling that was more likely to lead to interceptions (plus the unlucky fumbles).

Nobody is saying the turnovers were entirely luck... He is saying in the "luck" part of turnovers, UC was far and away the most unlucky team in the country.

Quote:The Bearcats recovered only 37 percent of fumbles, and considering typical INT-to-PBU ratios, they threw about seven more interceptions than expected while reeling in about three fewer.

This guy is a sports writer?

(04-29-2016 02:15 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  It wasn't just luck. It was poor special teams play and offensive play calling that was more likely to lead to interceptions (plus the unlucky fumbles).

I know a couple interceptions in the temple game were a result of two receiver within two yards of each other. This is not luck but bad preparation.

(04-29-2016 03:29 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 02:15 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  It wasn't just luck. It was poor special teams play and offensive play calling that was more likely to lead to interceptions (plus the unlucky fumbles).

I know a couple interceptions in the temple game were a result of two receiver within two yards of each other. This is not luck but bad preparation.

Again, nobody is saying that the turnovers were all about luck, he is just making the point that the Bearcats had the worst turnover luck in the country by very specific measures. By his numbers UC's expected turnovers were 24.3 and they actually turned it over 33 times (+8.7 more times than expected, for you math majors).

Also by his numbers UC would have been expected to force 18.6 turnovers and only forced 14 (a difference in 4.6). Essentially UC was really unlucky with turnovers on both sides of the football last year.

(04-29-2016 03:40 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 03:29 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 02:15 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  It wasn't just luck. It was poor special teams play and offensive play calling that was more likely to lead to interceptions (plus the unlucky fumbles).

I know a couple interceptions in the temple game were a result of two receiver within two yards of each other. This is not luck but bad preparation.

Again, nobody is saying that the turnovers were all about luck, he is just making the point that the Bearcats had the worst turnover luck in the country by very specific measures. By his numbers UC's expected turnovers were 24.3 and they actually turned it over 33 times (+8.7 more times than expected, for you math majors).

Also by his numbers UC would have been expected to force 18.6 turnovers and only forced 14 (a difference in 4.6). Essentially UC was really unlucky with turnovers on both sides of the football last year.

I know that your not a Tubberville apologist, and I get the point that the team was not "lucky." I think turnovers have more to do with the physical and mental nature of your team. Smart confident conditioned offenses do not make careless turnovers, and physical ball hawking defenses force the other team to make turnovers.

On another note, I cannot believe the number of people that we have back with significant playing time. Wide receiver is the only group that takes a significant step backwards. We are very deep along the defensive line and defensive backfield. I think Eric Wilson is a legitimate playmaker at linebacker and Minor sees quite a bit of time at the Mike. The key ingredients are Gunnar and coaching. Gunnar stays injury free and TT shows some interest, I am beginning that this can be a special season.

Normally I avoid scheduling a vacation that conflicts with a possible bowl game. I have scheduled a Suite on Azamara leaving 12/27.

Last year I also made sure to be in Cincy at AAC Champ Game. Not this year as we will leave for Sarasota Condo the day after Thanksgiving.

One more year of the bad FB results and this Soccer BS and my Club Seats are history.

(04-29-2016 02:10 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Good point early on turnover luck. I realized UC was unlucky on turnovers, didn't realize just how unlucky.

He also makes the point that over a 4 game stretch UC actually played top 25 caliber football (that included the road loss to Houston which was an incredibly rare kind of loss as UC outgained Houston 8.5 to 4.9, on a per-play basis).

Good lord the end of the season was an abomination though.

Quote:You can see whatever you want to see with UC this year, and that's before we get to talking about an amazing schedule. Cincy has a 92 percent chance of beating UT-Martin in the opener and has an 82 percent chance of beating Miami (Ohio). The other 10 games are all between 38 and 61 percent.

Ten tossups! For a Tommy Tuberville team! That is an invitation to insanity. If the potential weaknesses are a little less weak than we think, then the Bearcats could legitimately go 10-2 or 11-1 this year. But if the passing game never takes and the front seven is still too leaky, 3-9 is on the table.

This might be the biggest wildcard team that a wildcard extraordinaire has ever had. I have no idea what is going to happen, and I cannot wait to find out.

Bill's the best. Pretty great breakdown and can't really disagree with anything.

UC was 3rd to last in TO margin in D1 football. I think we were -18, and as an example Houston was +20, +1 in the Country. The primary reason Houston was in the Peach Bowl was TO margin. The only game they lost Ward was on the bench hurt.

(04-29-2016 05:15 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Normally I avoid scheduling a vacation that conflicts with a possible bowl game. I have scheduled a Suite on Azamara leaving 12/27.

Last year I also made sure to be in Cincy at AAC Champ Game. Not this year as we will leave for Sarasota Condo the day after Thanksgiving.

One more year of the bad FB results and this Soccer BS and my Club Seats are history.

Donate them to a worthy cause. I can hold down the fort for you Doss.