(04-19-2016 07:40 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 07:18 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(04-18-2016 10:00 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  It is actually kind of strange that a person would believe that we wouldn't see another world war.

I argue it from a position of weapons and threats. For a world war to really pop off, it would have to be perpetrated by state actors that have super-regional influence IMO. If India and Pakistan get into it, I don't think the entire world jumps into the fray. Because a WWIII would be of that scale, any semblance of victory would include the use of nuclear weapons. I believe MAD is still in effect at this level.

Obviously a rogue state falls outside of MAD theory, but such treats can be eliminated conventionally if there is popular consensus. If Kim Jun Un launches a nuke on SK, I don't think anyone is going to lose any sleep the US bombing NK into oblivion. Hell, China might do it before the UN hold a vote.

So I think what we see now will continue for the foreseeable future. Regional actors like Russia, China and ISIS attempting the expand their influence and seeing if there is real opposition to advancement. In a lot of case the only real resistance is the US, a nation that is trending more towards isolationism every day.

The way the US, the EU and NATO recklessly signs treaties, they would be drawn into just about any regional conflicts by law. I'm no expert in international law, but you mention India and Pakistan. Up until recently, India was a British territory. I believe they still recognize the queen. I would think (though admittedly I don't know) that they would have an obligation to be involved in a conflict with Pakistan, which would likely draw in the US and possible NATO as well.

I don't think many of these treaties are worth the paper they are printed on. I damn sure don't want the US to go to war with China over Taiwan. If Russia starts making moves in the Baltic States, I seriously doubt NATO will respond unless the US acts first.

The more and more our the world's economy becomes a singular economy, the less likely a WWIII will happen.


^^^^^ This is where my thinking is at. China isn't starting a war with us. They would lose too much. It would be against their economic interests.

Russia is becoming more and more tied to the International Community. Their latest shenanigans has cost them dearly economically.

I don't see it.

(04-19-2016 09:37 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  The more and more our the world's economy becomes a singular economy, the less likely a WWIII will happen.


^^^^^ This is where my thinking is at. China isn't starting a war with us. They would lose too much. It would be against their economic interests.

Russia is becoming more and more tied to the International Community. Their latest shenanigans has cost them dearly economically.

I don't see it.

Austria Hungary didn't start a war with Russia directly either.

(04-19-2016 09:37 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  The more and more our the world's economy becomes a singular economy, the less likely a WWIII will happen.


^^^^^ This is where my thinking is at. China isn't starting a war with us. They would lose too much. It would be against their economic interests.

Russia is becoming more and more tied to the International Community. Their latest shenanigans has cost them dearly economically.

I don't see it.

The problem with Russia, as their economic situation gets worse, Putin's only method to distract the folks is to return to the old Mother Russia meme. No I don't think he'd start a nuclear war, but I do think he'd try to expand the borders and reacquire one or more of the Baltic states.

That's why I have suggested a US armor presence along the Baltic borders.

Austria Hungary was a different time period. It couldn't happen today. The way we communicate being the key. WWI never happens in the internet age. It just doesn't. We have had a paradigm shift.

(04-19-2016 09:50 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Austria Hungary was a different time period. It couldn't happen today. The way we communicate being the key. WWI never happens in the internet age. It just doesn't. We have had a paradigm shift.

They were saying much the same thing then.

(04-19-2016 09:50 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Austria Hungary was a different time period. It couldn't happen today. The way we communicate being the key. WWI never happens in the internet age. It just doesn't. We have had a paradigm shift.

Now we just deal with different paradigms, some of which could lead to another world war.

That was before the atomic age too. It's like that 80's movie war games . The only way to win is not to play.

(04-19-2016 10:06 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  That was before the atomic age too. It's like that 80's movie war games . The only way to win is not to play.

Poison gas was the nuclear option before the nuclear option. It played no real role in the Second World War.

The point is that it is the arrogance of the age to think we are immune to war. We are hardly the first generation to think so though.

(04-19-2016 10:09 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 10:06 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  That was before the atomic age too. It's like that 80's movie war games . The only way to win is not to play.

Poison gas was the nuclear option before the nuclear option. It played no real role in the Second World War.

The point is that it is the arrogance of the age to think we are immune to war. We are hardly the first generation to think so though.

For certain personalities, the ultimate end game is conquering the world once they have a taste of power. Throughout history, about every hundred years or so someone with that personality trait manages to get themselves in a position to try it. The last was probably Hitler. Putin may be trying to get himself in that position, but I don't think he has enough time and he is too bright and calculating to act unless he thinks he'll win. I don't know who it will be, if s/he is even born yet, but it will happen again.

(04-19-2016 10:17 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 10:09 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 10:06 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  That was before the atomic age too. It's like that 80's movie war games . The only way to win is not to play.

Poison gas was the nuclear option before the nuclear option. It played no real role in the Second World War.

The point is that it is the arrogance of the age to think we are immune to war. We are hardly the first generation to think so though.

For certain personalities, the ultimate end game is conquering the world once they have a taste of power. Throughout history, about every hundred years or so someone with that personality trait manages to get themselves in a position to try it. The last was probably Hitler. Putin may be trying to get himself in that position, but I don't think he has enough time and he is too bright and calculating to act unless he thinks he'll win. I don't know who it will be, if s/he is even born yet, but it will happen again.

Certainly could happen in China.

In college football we talk about everyone moving toward four or five super conferences. I imagine it would be like that politically, bigger nations invading small ones but not each other. I do not believe anybody is going to risk nuclear war over small countries.

(04-19-2016 10:31 AM)dbacard Wrote:  In college football we talk about everyone moving toward four or five super conferences. I imagine it would be like that politically, bigger nations invading small ones but not each other. I do not believe anybody is going to risk nuclear war over small countries.

But it sets up an interesting issue.

If you are a nuclear power and will not be threatened by another then why would another nuclear power threaten you with nuclear war over some small insignificant group?

Your shield of immunity can be as much of a weapon as a defense.

(04-19-2016 10:23 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 10:17 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 10:09 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 10:06 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  That was before the atomic age too. It's like that 80's movie war games . The only way to win is not to play.

Poison gas was the nuclear option before the nuclear option. It played no real role in the Second World War.

The point is that it is the arrogance of the age to think we are immune to war. We are hardly the first generation to think so though.

For certain personalities, the ultimate end game is conquering the world once they have a taste of power. Throughout history, about every hundred years or so someone with that personality trait manages to get themselves in a position to try it. The last was probably Hitler. Putin may be trying to get himself in that position, but I don't think he has enough time and he is too bright and calculating to act unless he thinks he'll win. I don't know who it will be, if s/he is even born yet, but it will happen again.

Certainly could happen in China.

I wouldn't count out Germany either. They literally have the rest of Europe by the balls through control of the central bank and currencies and implementing a quasi-mercantilist approach behind the Euro shell plus recent pushback over Merkel's open border policies is just begging for another Hitler to rise there, particularly if the economy goes sour. I guess it could really happen anywhere if the right person gets into power and learns to pull the right strings.

(04-19-2016 10:31 AM)dbacard Wrote:  In college football we talk about everyone moving toward four or five super conferences. I imagine it would be like that politically, bigger nations invading small ones but not each other. I do not believe anybody is going to risk nuclear war over small countries.

It doesn't have to be nuclear. I agree that it is unlikely anyone with their hands on nukes will be quick to pull the trigger as it is poor strategy in modern global politics. I think the next World War will be fought conventionally... at least at first.

(04-19-2016 09:37 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  The more and more our the world's economy becomes a singular economy, the less likely a WWIII will happen.


^^^^^ This is where my thinking is at. China isn't starting a war with us. They would lose too much. It would be against their economic interests.

Russia is becoming more and more tied to the International Community. Their latest shenanigans has cost them dearly economically.

I don't see it.

That's not why China isn't starting a war with us. China's goal is to kick the US out of SE Asia. It doesn't need to fight us to accomplish that, simply price the price for any conflict to rich for our taste. They are well on their way to accomplishing that.

Without a doubt there will be another WW. It will only take Iran having the bomb. They don't care about values/family/. Through their religion it is a plus to die for your religion, same as it was for Japanese to die for their emperor. Iran wants to open the road for the next Caliphate but they know that they can't do that until they're on an even playing field. That said they also want to have a chance of winning it because it won't do them any good if they lost the war. The also don't care how many of their people's lives are lost either. They just want to win. And they think their god will come. Just like Christians know that Jesus will come around that time. Having a war against Iraq sure wasn't going to do what THEY wanted. It will take an all encompassing war that will include destroying Israel and it will happen. Even though it's obvious that they only could ruin Israel for their Mahti to arrive that won't happen because other nations will join the fray.

(04-19-2016 09:37 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  The more and more our the world's economy becomes a singular economy, the less likely a WWIII will happen.


^^^^^ This is where my thinking is at. China isn't starting a war with us. They would lose too much. It would be against their economic interests.

Russia is becoming more and more tied to the International Community. Their latest shenanigans has cost them dearly economically.

I don't see it.

In other words, you don't really believe in what the bible says.

Are you not a Christian anymore Mach?

(04-19-2016 04:34 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 09:37 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  The more and more our the world's economy becomes a singular economy, the less likely a WWIII will happen.


^^^^^ This is where my thinking is at. China isn't starting a war with us. They would lose too much. It would be against their economic interests.

Russia is becoming more and more tied to the International Community. Their latest shenanigans has cost them dearly economically.

I don't see it.

In other words, you don't really believe in what the bible says.

Are you not a Christian anymore Mach?

so,,,,,now you are witch hunting?

why am I not surprised?/....

the end game is lose all day long....that's just the way she shakes out pal.....it doesn't matter whether one likes it or not..behavioral study is a sticky wicket in the land of Al (Gore_)

disclaimer: you won't get all of 'that' intent'

(04-19-2016 10:32 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  so,,,,,now you are witch hunting?

why am I not surprised?/....

witch hunting?

I'm concerned for my man Mach and his faith. He's been through a LOT this year.

Me thinks you smoke too much pot.