(03-15-2016 09:20 PM)EverRespect Wrote: Well I was wrong. I underestimated Kasich across the board. Glad he won Ohio, bit he is a spoiler everywhere else.
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A lot of Ohio Democrats registered as republicans today to vote against Trump and for Kasich.
If they registered today (or yesterday), they were ineligible to vote. The deadline to register was a month ago. Ohio was a semi-closed primary, meaning you had to be a registered Independent or Republican to vote in the Republican primary. If you were a registered Democrat, you could only vote in the Democratic primary.
(03-15-2016 12:10 PM)UofMstateU Wrote: There is nearly a zero chance of a brokered convention. If, after the first vote, noone has 1237, then the delegates can change. If the establishment decides to stick it to Cruz and asks the Rubio/Kasich delegates to not back Cruz, then Cruz will make a deal with Trump and they will pool their delegates. Neither of those two guys are going to allow the establishment to win, and they will control all the cards.
Thats why it wont be a brokered convention. The anti-establishment candidates will control 70% or more of the delegates.
I honestly thought about that as being a possibility... and early on, I would say you were 100% right on this happening, UM... but after the most recent round of shots, I'm not so sure the delegates would agree to that.
(03-15-2016 10:32 PM)dawgitall Wrote: Since Rubio withdrew, all his delegates are now unbound. Let the jobs, favors and cash flow!
I thought the delegates are still tied to Rubio through round 1 Dawg...? That's why the candidates all say they're "suspending" the campaign, and not "removing themselves" from the campaign.
They can't add any more afterwards (at least I don't think they can), but I thought the ones they had were locked in?
(03-15-2016 10:32 PM)dawgitall Wrote: Since Rubio withdrew, all his delegates are now unbound. Let the jobs, favors and cash flow!
I thought the delegates are still tied to Rubio through round 1 Dawg...? That's why the candidates all say they're "suspending" the campaign, and not "removing themselves" from the campaign.
They can't add any more afterwards (at least I don't think they can), but I thought the ones they had were locked in?
My understanding is that this is a state party issue and the rules vary by state.
(03-15-2016 12:10 PM)UofMstateU Wrote: There is nearly a zero chance of a brokered convention. If, after the first vote, noone has 1237, then the delegates can change. If the establishment decides to stick it to Cruz and asks the Rubio/Kasich delegates to not back Cruz, then Cruz will make a deal with Trump and they will pool their delegates. Neither of those two guys are going to allow the establishment to win, and they will control all the cards.
Thats why it wont be a brokered convention. The anti-establishment candidates will control 70% or more of the delegates.
I honestly thought about that as being a possibility... and early on, I would say you were 100% right on this happening, UM... but after the most recent round of shots, I'm not so sure the delegates would agree to that.
Can Cruz hold onto his senate seat if he runs as VP? I honestly don't see him giving that up for what is sure to be a losing effort that would likely eliminate him from ever winning the nomination down the road. I think, assuming Trump gets the nomination, Cruz's best bet is to keep his distance, go back to the senate, continue doing what he does, and challenge Hillary in 4 years. If Trump wins the presidency, Cruz needs to be in the senate to negotiate some sanity into his positions (use the VAT instead of starting trade wars, etc).
(03-15-2016 10:32 PM)dawgitall Wrote: Since Rubio withdrew, all his delegates are now unbound. Let the jobs, favors and cash flow!
I thought the delegates are still tied to Rubio through round 1 Dawg...? That's why the candidates all say they're "suspending" the campaign, and not "removing themselves" from the campaign.
They can't add any more afterwards (at least I don't think they can), but I thought the ones they had were locked in?
No, candidates "suspend" their campaigns because of a legal technicality that allows them to raise money to pay off their debts, whereas removing themselves does not. From my understanding on what I read last night, Rubio's delegates are free to vote for who they want on the first ballot.
Quote:Can Cruz hold onto his senate seat if he runs as VP?
Yep... Paul Ryan kept his seat despite being on a losing ticket. State elections are an entire kettle of fish compared to Presidential elections.
Gotcha, wasn't sure about Texas. I think each state gets to decide the rules on that. Cruz's biggest problem, and this shows how shallow we are, is that he is ugly and on top of that balding. In 2020 and 2024, while he'll still be very young, he might not have any hair. He may have to take the VP run if offered if he ever wants to be president and doesn't get the nomination.
Quote:Can Cruz hold onto his senate seat if he runs as VP?
Yep... Paul Ryan kept his seat despite being on a losing ticket. State elections are an entire kettle of fish compared to Presidential elections.
Gotcha, wasn't sure about Texas. I think each state gets to decide the rules on that. Cruz's biggest problem, and this shows how shallow we are, is that he is ugly and on top of that balding. In 2020 and 2024, while he'll still be very young, he might not have any hair. He may have to take the VP run if offered if he ever wants to be president and doesn't get the nomination.
Texas is (to my knowledge), and I'd have to look it up or ask my family about it... the same way, you don't have to give up your seat to run on a ticket
Quote:Can Cruz hold onto his senate seat if he runs as VP?
Yep... Paul Ryan kept his seat despite being on a losing ticket. State elections are an entire kettle of fish compared to Presidential elections.
Gotcha, wasn't sure about Texas. I think each state gets to decide the rules on that. Cruz's biggest problem, and this shows how shallow we are, is that he is ugly and on top of that balding. In 2020 and 2024, while he'll still be very young, he might not have any hair. He may have to take the VP run if offered if he ever wants to be president and doesn't get the nomination.
Texas is (to my knowledge), and I'd have to look it up or ask my family about it... the same way, you don't have to give up your seat to run on a ticket
Come to think of it George W ran while governor of Texas.
(03-15-2016 10:32 PM)dawgitall Wrote: Since Rubio withdrew, all his delegates are now unbound. Let the jobs, favors and cash flow!
I thought the delegates are still tied to Rubio through round 1 Dawg...? That's why the candidates all say they're "suspending" the campaign, and not "removing themselves" from the campaign.
They can't add any more afterwards (at least I don't think they can), but I thought the ones they had were locked in?
Well nobody has "ended" their campaign. They all have "suspended."
That allows them to keep raising money to pay off debts. But it could impact delegates.
(03-16-2016 09:28 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: Have they called MO yet?
Yep. Trump by 2000 votes. But won the delegates 47-5 because they proportion them by congressional district which Trump won 7-1, then another 12 points for winning the state.
(03-16-2016 09:28 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: Have they called MO yet?
Yep. Trump by 2000 votes. But won the delegates 47-5 because they proportion them by congressional district which Trump won 7-1, then another 12 points for winning the state.
CNN hasn't called it for either party. They show Trump 20-5 on delegates determined so far. They show Illinois 20-3 of the 69 for Trump so far.
(03-16-2016 09:28 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: Have they called MO yet?
Yep. Trump by 2000 votes. But won the delegates 47-5 because they proportion them by congressional district which Trump won 7-1, then another 12 points for winning the state.
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