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End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
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tribeinexile Offline
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Post: #1
End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
This end-of-season experience is starting to look too much like March, 2013, including playing JMU back-to-back to end the regular season and, alas, the Tournament. Hopefully this year one win begets another which begets …

I think only those truly inside the program can know the true cause of our current funk. From the outside we can only make inferences. And those inferences are by nature influenced by physical performance and not intangibles such as team chemistry or unknown injuries, etc.

To these eyes the breakdowns are in the half-court game, both offense and defense.

On offense, whether due to injuries, shooting slumps or defenses adjusting to our game, we have suffered a severe drop in production in the two-spot. If you buy into the theory that any offense needs three go-to players, and if you remember that up until a few weeks ago Dixon was our number two threat, that is a real problem. This puts extra pressure on other players and I don’t think it is a coincidence that Tarpey and Malinowski are now in shooting slumps. It is perhaps significant that our best win lately (over UNC-W) was triggered by a short stretch where Dixon and Tarpey went bonkers.

On defense, our interior defense is getting over-powered. This creates a problem where opponents are hitting threes at an excellent clip because our perimeter defenders are trying to help out down low. One example is the killer three-pointer JMU hit at the end of Saturday’s game. It resulted from Cohn (who is not the most disciplined defender to begin with) leaving his man and going all the way below the basket to help on interior defense. That one example is a mere snippet compared to what happened to us in the Towson game.

If our issues are injuries, fatigue or simply shooting slumps I suspect we won’t see significant changes this weekend. I am inclined to think, however, that Shaver will change something up, if only to try to light a spark. My guess is that he might try to go to some form of pressure defense, not to force turnovers but to reduce the possessions that devolve into half-court possessions, either on offense or defense. I personally don't think we can win three straight games that are predominantly walk the ball up the court, run the clock half-court games but I like our odds in a full-court game against anyone, including UNC-W.

Our teams of 5-10 years ago, much like this year's Elon team, could only realistically hope to win by having three consecutive nights of lights-out shooting. We need to shoot well from the three-point line, particularly early to gain back some confidence but we are a little too talented so say that all we can do is hope for a Curry-like shooting explosion.

(I assume compensation on this board based on words per post, correct?)
02-28-2016 10:59 PM
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BigTribe2 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
Well said.
02-29-2016 08:39 AM
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NC Tribe Offline
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
(02-28-2016 10:59 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  This end-of-season experience is starting to look too much like March, 2013, including playing JMU back-to-back to end the regular season and, alas, the Tournament. Hopefully this year one win begets another which begets …

I think only those truly inside the program can know the true cause of our current funk. From the outside we can only make inferences. And those inferences are by nature influenced by physical performance and not intangibles such as team chemistry or unknown injuries, etc.

To these eyes the breakdowns are in the half-court game, both offense and defense.

On offense, whether due to injuries, shooting slumps or defenses adjusting to our game, we have suffered a severe drop in production in the two-spot. If you buy into the theory that any offense needs three go-to players, and if you remember that up until a few weeks ago Dixon was our number two threat, that is a real problem. This puts extra pressure on other players and I don’t think it is a coincidence that Tarpey and Malinowski are now in shooting slumps. It is perhaps significant that our best win lately (over UNC-W) was triggered by a short stretch where Dixon and Tarpey went bonkers.

On defense, our interior defense is getting over-powered. This creates a problem where opponents are hitting threes at an excellent clip because our perimeter defenders are trying to help out down low. One example is the killer three-pointer JMU hit at the end of Saturday’s game. It resulted from Cohn (who is not the most disciplined defender to begin with) leaving his man and going all the way below the basket to help on interior defense. That one example is a mere snippet compared to what happened to us in the Towson game.

If our issues are injuries, fatigue or simply shooting slumps I suspect we won’t see significant changes this weekend. I am inclined to think, however, that Shaver will change something up, if only to try to light a spark. My guess is that he might try to go to some form of pressure defense, not to force turnovers but to reduce the possessions that devolve into half-court possessions, either on offense or defense. I personally don't think we can win three straight games that are predominantly walk the ball up the court, run the clock half-court games but I like our odds in a full-court game against anyone, including UNC-W.

Our teams of 5-10 years ago, much like this year's Elon team, could only realistically hope to win by having three consecutive nights of lights-out shooting. We need to shoot well from the three-point line, particularly early to gain back some confidence but we are a little too talented so say that all we can do is hope for a Curry-like shooting explosion.

(I assume compensation on this board based on words per post, correct?)

Each team plays three distinct "seasons" each year. Non-conference, conference and the tournament.

The tournament is our season, the rest no longer matters. This league is a mosh pit that any of 6 teams could win. Stay healthy and hot and you can win three straight.

Why not this season? Why not the Tribe?

It is there for the taking.

I'll be there. The hotel is paid through Monday night and my return flight is Tuesday.

Go Tribe!
02-29-2016 08:40 AM
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tribemike09 Offline
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
(02-28-2016 10:59 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  This end-of-season experience is starting to look too much like March, 2013, including playing JMU back-to-back to end the regular season and, alas, the Tournament. Hopefully this year one win begets another which begets …

I think only those truly inside the program can know the true cause of our current funk. From the outside we can only make inferences. And those inferences are by nature influenced by physical performance and not intangibles such as team chemistry or unknown injuries, etc.

To these eyes the breakdowns are in the half-court game, both offense and defense.

On offense, whether due to injuries, shooting slumps or defenses adjusting to our game, we have suffered a severe drop in production in the two-spot. If you buy into the theory that any offense needs three go-to players, and if you remember that up until a few weeks ago Dixon was our number two threat, that is a real problem. This puts extra pressure on other players and I don’t think it is a coincidence that Tarpey and Malinowski are now in shooting slumps. It is perhaps significant that our best win lately (over UNC-W) was triggered by a short stretch where Dixon and Tarpey went bonkers.

On defense, our interior defense is getting over-powered. This creates a problem where opponents are hitting threes at an excellent clip because our perimeter defenders are trying to help out down low. One example is the killer three-pointer JMU hit at the end of Saturday’s game. It resulted from Cohn (who is not the most disciplined defender to begin with) leaving his man and going all the way below the basket to help on interior defense. That one example is a mere snippet compared to what happened to us in the Towson game.

If our issues are injuries, fatigue or simply shooting slumps I suspect we won’t see significant changes this weekend. I am inclined to think, however, that Shaver will change something up, if only to try to light a spark. My guess is that he might try to go to some form of pressure defense, not to force turnovers but to reduce the possessions that devolve into half-court possessions, either on offense or defense. I personally don't think we can win three straight games that are predominantly walk the ball up the court, run the clock half-court games but I like our odds in a full-court game against anyone, including UNC-W.

Our teams of 5-10 years ago, much like this year's Elon team, could only realistically hope to win by having three consecutive nights of lights-out shooting. We need to shoot well from the three-point line, particularly early to gain back some confidence but we are a little too talented so say that all we can do is hope for a Curry-like shooting explosion.

(I assume compensation on this board based on words per post, correct?)

You bring up an interesting point about how our perimeter defenders are helping out down low because our interior defense is weak - it's been something I've noticed as well (it's hard not to when teams are getting so many open/non-contested looks from three). Do you think Tony should look into playing two true forwards in the future rather than 4 guards/1 forward? I think it's too late this year, but maybe next year it's possible using a rotation of Whitman/Seacat/Knight. It would probably require somewhat of an offensive overhaul though.
02-29-2016 10:14 AM
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LeadBolt Offline
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
(02-29-2016 10:14 AM)tribemike09 Wrote:  
(02-28-2016 10:59 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  This end-of-season experience is starting to look too much like March, 2013, including playing JMU back-to-back to end the regular season and, alas, the Tournament. Hopefully this year one win begets another which begets …

I think only those truly inside the program can know the true cause of our current funk. From the outside we can only make inferences. And those inferences are by nature influenced by physical performance and not intangibles such as team chemistry or unknown injuries, etc.

To these eyes the breakdowns are in the half-court game, both offense and defense.

On offense, whether due to injuries, shooting slumps or defenses adjusting to our game, we have suffered a severe drop in production in the two-spot. If you buy into the theory that any offense needs three go-to players, and if you remember that up until a few weeks ago Dixon was our number two threat, that is a real problem. This puts extra pressure on other players and I don’t think it is a coincidence that Tarpey and Malinowski are now in shooting slumps. It is perhaps significant that our best win lately (over UNC-W) was triggered by a short stretch where Dixon and Tarpey went bonkers.

On defense, our interior defense is getting over-powered. This creates a problem where opponents are hitting threes at an excellent clip because our perimeter defenders are trying to help out down low. One example is the killer three-pointer JMU hit at the end of Saturday’s game. It resulted from Cohn (who is not the most disciplined defender to begin with) leaving his man and going all the way below the basket to help on interior defense. That one example is a mere snippet compared to what happened to us in the Towson game.

If our issues are injuries, fatigue or simply shooting slumps I suspect we won’t see significant changes this weekend. I am inclined to think, however, that Shaver will change something up, if only to try to light a spark. My guess is that he might try to go to some form of pressure defense, not to force turnovers but to reduce the possessions that devolve into half-court possessions, either on offense or defense. I personally don't think we can win three straight games that are predominantly walk the ball up the court, run the clock half-court games but I like our odds in a full-court game against anyone, including UNC-W.

Our teams of 5-10 years ago, much like this year's Elon team, could only realistically hope to win by having three consecutive nights of lights-out shooting. We need to shoot well from the three-point line, particularly early to gain back some confidence but we are a little too talented so say that all we can do is hope for a Curry-like shooting explosion.

(I assume compensation on this board based on words per post, correct?)

You bring up an interesting point about how our perimeter defenders are helping out down low because our interior defense is weak - it's been something I've noticed as well (it's hard not to when teams are getting so many open/non-contested looks from three). Do you think Tony should look into playing two true forwards in the future rather than 4 guards/1 forward? I think it's too late this year, but maybe next year it's possible using a rotation of Whitman/Seacat/Knight. It would probably require somewhat of an offensive overhaul though.

I've long believed that having the option of putting 2 bigs on the floor at the same time would be a huge plus for this team in certain match-ups to bolster both offensive and defensive sets.

I don't believe this needs to be an either/or situation, but it would definitely take re-working of the current system, which is very good. I'd hate to lose the current system entirely, but would rather see a situational supplement added.
02-29-2016 11:39 AM
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
(02-29-2016 11:39 AM)LeadBolt Wrote:  
(02-29-2016 10:14 AM)tribemike09 Wrote:  
(02-28-2016 10:59 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  This end-of-season experience is starting to look too much like March, 2013, including playing JMU back-to-back to end the regular season and, alas, the Tournament. Hopefully this year one win begets another which begets …

I think only those truly inside the program can know the true cause of our current funk. From the outside we can only make inferences. And those inferences are by nature influenced by physical performance and not intangibles such as team chemistry or unknown injuries, etc.

To these eyes the breakdowns are in the half-court game, both offense and defense.

On offense, whether due to injuries, shooting slumps or defenses adjusting to our game, we have suffered a severe drop in production in the two-spot. If you buy into the theory that any offense needs three go-to players, and if you remember that up until a few weeks ago Dixon was our number two threat, that is a real problem. This puts extra pressure on other players and I don’t think it is a coincidence that Tarpey and Malinowski are now in shooting slumps. It is perhaps significant that our best win lately (over UNC-W) was triggered by a short stretch where Dixon and Tarpey went bonkers.

On defense, our interior defense is getting over-powered. This creates a problem where opponents are hitting threes at an excellent clip because our perimeter defenders are trying to help out down low. One example is the killer three-pointer JMU hit at the end of Saturday’s game. It resulted from Cohn (who is not the most disciplined defender to begin with) leaving his man and going all the way below the basket to help on interior defense. That one example is a mere snippet compared to what happened to us in the Towson game.

If our issues are injuries, fatigue or simply shooting slumps I suspect we won’t see significant changes this weekend. I am inclined to think, however, that Shaver will change something up, if only to try to light a spark. My guess is that he might try to go to some form of pressure defense, not to force turnovers but to reduce the possessions that devolve into half-court possessions, either on offense or defense. I personally don't think we can win three straight games that are predominantly walk the ball up the court, run the clock half-court games but I like our odds in a full-court game against anyone, including UNC-W.

Our teams of 5-10 years ago, much like this year's Elon team, could only realistically hope to win by having three consecutive nights of lights-out shooting. We need to shoot well from the three-point line, particularly early to gain back some confidence but we are a little too talented so say that all we can do is hope for a Curry-like shooting explosion.

(I assume compensation on this board based on words per post, correct?)

You bring up an interesting point about how our perimeter defenders are helping out down low because our interior defense is weak - it's been something I've noticed as well (it's hard not to when teams are getting so many open/non-contested looks from three). Do you think Tony should look into playing two true forwards in the future rather than 4 guards/1 forward? I think it's too late this year, but maybe next year it's possible using a rotation of Whitman/Seacat/Knight. It would probably require somewhat of an offensive overhaul though.

I've long believed that having the option of putting 2 bigs on the floor at the same time would be a huge plus for this team in certain match-ups to bolster both offensive and defensive sets.

I don't believe this needs to be an either/or situation, but it would definitely take re-working of the current system, which is very good. I'd hate to lose the current system entirely, but would rather see a situational supplement added.

Omar should lift some weights in the off season, he isn't a guard. I would suspect that Tarpey's replacement will be taller than 6'5"
02-29-2016 11:56 AM
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
Up until Ingram's big game against us in Wilmington WM was one of the best team's in the country guarding the three. What happened? I saw a postgame interview somewhere with Shaver where he too was perplexed by the reversal in the team's three-point defense.
02-29-2016 12:00 PM
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tribeinexile Offline
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
I am sure Shaver would prefer to have a legitimate power forward along with a more physically dominant center but right now they aren't in our program. The excitement around Nathan Knight is that in time we may be able to play him at the 4-spot without abandoning our current system.

From what I see, Omar is demonstrably stronger than he was a year ago. His arms look much bigger to me and his per-game rebounding is up 25% (OK, that's only one more rebound per game.) I think his biggest issue on defense and rebounding is that was never a point of emphasis for him in high school. This is the same problem that Cohn may be having and that I suspect Knight will have.

I suspect Tarpey's replacement next year will be one inch taller and weigh the same. He will not lead the team in rebounding as Tarpey has so that is something for which we will have to compensate.

Other than the first Towson game, I am not sure that defensive rebounding has been the Archilles heel for us as it has been in the past. What has been a problem is teams finding a physical mis-match down low, usually a question of weight/strength more than height, and consistently getting off high percentage shots. And I believe that trying to compensate for that inside weakness has led to our defensive struggles at the three-point line.
02-29-2016 12:20 PM
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UofRfan Offline
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
How long has Dixon's wrist been hurting? Seems like its been wrapped forever but 0-9 3's vs JMU opens questions up to how effective he is right now.
02-29-2016 02:32 PM
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
We aren't going to replace Tarpey with one person. His points per game are the easy part. Put Malinowski in for 32 minutes and he'll score a ton. The rebounding is going to be the hard part. It would be great to see Whitman/Seacat average 10 rebounds per game combined out of the center position. That position only averaged 7.4 per game this year. Tarpey averaged 8.0.

I don't think we should be counting on Knight for much next season. I do see him as more of a 4 than a 5, but He could be awesome out of that high post when he gets used to the college game.
02-29-2016 02:57 PM
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
I thought we competed well on the road at JMU (only saw second half). We went 0-10 in the second half from 3. Majority of those were good looks. If we shoot our season average we win the game.

I agree with Rocco, that our collective defense is not good enough to compensate for a sub-par offensive outing. While we need to bring as much energy as we can to the defensive side of the ball, achieving the ultimate goal will require three above average offensive games (read at or above season averages).

Biggest contributor to the 2-4 finish to the season has been drop off in Dixon's offensive numbers. Pretty clear that's a result of his wrist injury.

Having Dixon and Tarpey at or near 100% is critical. Cohn, Prewitt and Sheldon are all playing at high levels.

Secondary to Dixon and Tarpey's health is the shooting slumps of Malinowski and Burchfield. Defenses are definitely more aware of Connor now. I'm hoping Malinowski had some tired legs and will respond well to the week of prep/rest.

I also agree with Tribe Dad that more offensive touches for Sheldon are in order, especially if jumpers aren't falling.



Like NC Tribe, I'm in for the duration regardless. We know the level we are capable of playing at when healthy and executing well. Our margin for error is thin, but winning three in Baltimore is not beyond our capabilities.
02-29-2016 03:03 PM
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tribeinexile Offline
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
Well, enthusiasm seems high. Just got my tickets in the mail and I'm still in the 200s just like last year.

North Charleston Arena is a lot closer for me than Royal Farms (27 miles vs. 593) and I guess I will be getting better seats but I will miss the large turnout we have been getting in Baltimore.

The championship game last year was a lot like that first night game semifinal against JMU. We lost both but it was exhilarating to have loud boisterous W&M crowds.
02-29-2016 03:39 PM
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
(02-29-2016 02:57 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  We aren't going to replace Tarpey with one person. His points per game are the easy part. Put Malinowski in for 32 minutes and he'll score a ton. The rebounding is going to be the hard part. It would be great to see Whitman/Seacat average 10 rebounds per game combined out of the center position. That position only averaged 7.4 per game this year. Tarpey averaged 8.0.

I don't think we should be counting on Knight for much next season. I do see him as more of a 4 than a 5, but He could be awesome out of that high post when he gets used to the college game.

Tarpey's their best defender. His defensive numbers are pretty close to last season. They're already below-average defensively with him on the court- even though his offensive numbers have taken a dive you still need him out there. I don't want to start thinking about next year yet because I don't want to think about how bad they'll be without Tarpey's defense.

As for Malinowski- since he went 5-9 against Delaware he's 10-37 over the last 6 games, 3 of 18 from 3. Maybe he should stop launching 3s.
02-29-2016 04:17 PM
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
With the fall off in 3 point shooting percentage, we need to execute back door cuts and pick and rolls with the bigs going to the basket until the defenses we face are forced to collapse. Dribble penetration and dishing also is needed, as are fast breaks. We need to make as many lay ups/ short pull up jumpers as possible. When we concentrate on those things and performance close to the basket improves, eventually so will 3 point shooting.
(This post was last modified: 02-29-2016 04:59 PM by LeadBolt.)
02-29-2016 04:59 PM
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
Has anyone seen the seating section assignments for each team?
02-29-2016 05:03 PM
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LeadBolt Offline
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
(02-29-2016 05:03 PM)Blow Gym rat Wrote:  Has anyone seen the seating section assignments for each team?

Have tickets in section 106. I don't know anything else.
02-29-2016 05:05 PM
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
(02-29-2016 04:59 PM)LeadBolt Wrote:  With the fall off in 3 point shooting percentage, we need to execute back door cuts and pick and rolls with the bigs going to the basket until the defenses we face are forced to collapse. Dribble penetration and dishing also is needed, as are fast breaks. We need to make as many lay ups/ short pull up jumpers as possible. When we concentrate on those things and performance close to the basket improves, eventually so will 3 point shooting.

Agreed. This is how The Tribe played up until the latter part of the season but, stopped for whatever reason the last couple weeks. Time to pull things together .


Go Tribe !
02-29-2016 05:17 PM
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WM Beancounter Offline
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
Tribe ticket office stuck me in 210, but there is no way W&M was assigned 110, since that's typically where fans of the 1 or 2 seed sits.
02-29-2016 05:18 PM
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
(02-29-2016 05:18 PM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  Tribe ticket office stuck me in 210, but there is no way W&M was assigned 110, since that's typically where fans of the 1 or 2 seed sits.

Win and move down....
02-29-2016 05:20 PM
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WM Beancounter Offline
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RE: End of Season & Tournament Thoughts
(02-29-2016 05:20 PM)Tribe Fan Wrote:  
(02-29-2016 05:18 PM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  Tribe ticket office stuck me in 210, but there is no way W&M was assigned 110, since that's typically where fans of the 1 or 2 seed sits.

Win and move down....

I don't think I have EVER sat in the seat that I actually purchased for any CAA tournament!
02-29-2016 06:33 PM
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